Most Excellent

What a tremendous premise! Axel Leijonhufvud interviews Friedrich Hayek. The incomprehensible takes on the increasingly obscure. Who wins? Judge for yourself.

Best part was where FAH insisted that Axel call him "Slash." (Okay, that didn't really happen). (But it would have been cool.)

Grand Game: Bullet Train Edition

Amazing article in the NYTimes, on bullet trains. (Nod to Anonyman).

Worthy of the Grand Game. Pick your favorite part.

Anonyman went first: Best part is the last sentence in the article...

Now, with the collapse of the Florida route, it looks as if the nation’s first segment of true high-speed rail will be in an even unlikelier place — linking Fresno and Bakersfield, in California’s Central Valley, and scheduled to end construction in 2017.

I can see wanting to take a fast train OUT of either of those places, but not if your only option is to go to the OTHER of those places.

My favorite part: The "Mad Men" commercial they paraphrase, which I had not heard about.

Mad Men On Trains from Rich Sommer

My favorite line: "“I read a piece that said that in 40 years, gas is going to cost almost a dollar a gallon,” one says." That was 1965, when gas was $0.31 per gallon. Now, this is not a commercial about inflation, folks. This is about GASOLINE. So, what is the current price of gasoline (I figured $3.60 per gallon nominal) in terms of 1965 prices? The answer is... $0.58! Still nowhere close to a dollar. I can never tell if US PIRG is a bunch of idiots, or liars. But those are the only possibilities, for them to make an ad like this.

Anyway, your turn! What's the coolest part of the article? Don't hold back, there's plenty of fun for everybody!

Music update

Two things, people.

First Air Waves' album is out (or more accurately, I finally realized it was out) and it's terrific! Available from Underwater Peoples.

Here's the video for their song "Knockout".

Second, Kurt Vile's new album is out and it's amazing. It's called "Smoke Rings for my Halo".

Here's a video of Kurt playing "Jeus Fever" out in the freezing cold:

My Blackberry is Frozen

I have to admit, this made me think of frequent reader Shirley...


UPDATE: Just got an email from Shirley saying power was out and she had no internet connection. Made me spit tea all over my keyboard. Either it was a miraculous email, or perhaps the power and internet are working after all. (No, she does not have an internet enabled phone).

You can't make this stuff up

Over at Mother Jones, Kevin Drum reacts to Tyler's list of mistakes left wing economists often make, by making almost all of the mistakes!!!

Really:

1. Suggesting that money matters in politics far more than the peer-reviewed evidence indicates.

I think the peer-reviewed evidence is wrong. It simply isn't able to capture all the dynamics of money in politics.

The comments are equally excellent until they start scrumming over social security. Here's an example:

His list of 10 mistakes made by conservative economists is much better.

Ahh, life is so sweet sometimes!

Jalen Rose: "Uncle Toms" at Duke

Jalen Rose said he felt like all the black players at Duke were "Uncle Toms." (His words, folks).

The interview.

My response, on the radio yesterday.

By the way, some facts:

Duke tuition + room/board: $52,000 6,400 Undergrads
African-American 10.3%
Basketball team graduation rate: 90%

Michigan tuition + room/board: out of state $49,000 (in state: $21,000)
51,000 Undergrads
African American 5.8%
Basketball team graduation rate: 44%

SNAP! Duke has far more African-American students, as a proportion of the student body. Tuition/costs are roughly the same. And Duke recruits students who have some chance of graduating. Michigan recruits some guys like Jalen Rose, who left early and had a fine NBA career. But they also recruit a lot of guys who take fake classes and are simply exploited as basketball cannon fodder. So, yes, it may be true that Duke recruits a different sort of player, the sort who has a chance of graduating with a degree. But I think it's more likely that Duke players are told they MUST focus on graduating, and that they have to work. Michigan players can just hope to have a career shooting off their mouths...like Jalen Rose.

I think Duke wins... AGAIN. Gosh it sucks to be you, Jalen!

(To be fair, the fab Five were equal opportunity losers. UNC kicked their ass for the 1993 championship, after Chris Webber did some sort of "travelling / call time out we don't have" dance move at mid-court. So it wasn't like the Fab Five only lost to Duke. Some video, to help you remember.)

Public Choice Memorial for Mel Hinich

The Public Choice Society meetings are this weekend, in San Antonio, TX.

I can't travel, because of my eye. But I got Neanderbill to read a statement in my stead. Here is that statement. (Also there is the Public Choice memoriam, written by four of us.)

For the Session on Mel Hinich for Public Choice
San Antonio, Texas
March 12, 2011

I first met Melvin at the Public Choice meetings at the Hilton in Pheonix, Arizona, in 1984, in a hallway at the hotel. He was talking to Peter Ordeshook (who was smoking), and the two of them acted as they always did: artlessly impatient. Did you have something interesting to say? If so, take your shot. But the weather or baseball scores didn’t get you far. Mel always wanted to talk about the work, what he had been working on or what he would be working on. Mel talked more than anyone else I ever met in academics.
But he could also listen. After I moved to UT in the fall of 1986, I realized that I had the chance to start a second “graduate school.” My background in public choice and spatial theory was shallow, and Mel set out to improve me. We went for long walks, often at noon or 1 pm, in the Austin heat, and would come back drenched in sweat. Then Mel would scribble on his blackboard for half an hour, with me taking notes, and then I would go try type things up.
I often got back to my office, and realized that Mel had made a mistake. The model didn’t work the way he said it did. So the next morning I would go to show him the mistake.
But often it wasn’t a mistake at all. Mel had simply skipped three or four steps that seemed obvious to him. Once he filled in the argument so I could see what he was doing, I went back to writing.
Sometimes in the last few years people come up to me at conferences and ask, “Has Mel ever written anything, or did you write it all?” Then they snicker, “In fact, has Mel ever READ any of your joint work?!!”
The truth is that Mel did not much like to write. And even less did he like to edit. Sometimes, it was frustrating, because I would give him a finished chapter for comments, and his entire response the next day was, “That was good! Now, let’s talk about submarines…” (Or Russia. Or Shakespeare. Or…)
But what is “writing,” exactly? In many ways, I was Mel’s typist, his Boswell. True, Mel said things and I wrote them down, and later typed them. But the order of our names, Hinich and Munger, on our three books and many articles, accurately reflects the contributions we made. Mel was, and is, first.
If I had not met Mel, I would have missed out on the excitement of discovery, and the sense of eager mental searching. Without his tutelage, I would never have become President of the Public Choice Society or editor of the journal. I wouldn’t be at Duke, and I might never have gotten tenure.
And without his friendship I would have missed out on the grandest times, biggest laughs, and deepest talks in my life. Mel had two great loves, particularly in his 50s before he had a number of illnesses. These loves were talking and eating. If you ever had a meal with him, you know that there was a sense of excitement, since you can’t really eat and talk at the same time. Would the winner be the unstoppable force, or the immovable object?
Well, the premise of the question turned out to be false. Mel could in fact eat and talk at the same time. And he could eat a lot, for hours in fact. He preferred eating at someone’s house, rather than going to a restaurant. This was partly because he didn’t like to waste money. But it was also because he would likely have kept the restaurant open past closing time. His appetites, capacities, and abilities were simply larger than life. I’m not sure we will see his like again.
The Sunday before he died, Mel called me at home to discuss the introductory chapter we were working on for the second edition of Analytical Politics, our Cambridge book. The first edition has been translated into Spanish, Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and Russian. I have now made very substantial progress on that book, and hope to finish it by May.
On that new edition Mel’s name will still be first, where it belongs, even though once again he didn’t write that much of it. I will always miss him.

College Applications

The Jacket (wearing a black t-shirt and a black shirt, but no jacket) interviews Andrew Ferguson about college applications.

(Nod to Biz of Life)

Funny guys, the dad and son.

"You know that scene at the end of 'Titanic'? All the motionless bodies lying face down? That was my son."

Obama's cabinet has not lost the capacity to surprise me

It's quite a group.

First there's Timmy G., Secretary of the Treasury AND tax cheater!

Second, we got to know Janet Napolitano, who excelled at closing her eyes and sticking her fingers in her ears while screaming "the system worked" when everyone could see that it didn't.

Third comes in aptly named Ray LaHood, who crucified Toyota in the press and didn't have the onions or the decency to even pretend to apologize when the rocket scientists basically cleared the company.

Finally and most recently, we now can celebrate the stupidity of Tom Vilsack! Yes, farm subsidies are inefficient but they're essential for the self esteem of "rural folk"?

Que bola de pendejos, no? And I haven't even mentioned Eric Holder!

None of them anticipated the dramatic price hike

So, there was this system that worked pretty well. Women got the drug Makena quite cheaply, and it was available from a number of different sources. $20 per dose, tops.

Then the government decided to "help." Who knew about conditions, safety? There needs to be a process, here. Let's regulate.

And now the price is $1,500 per dose. Many women won't be able to afford it. Here's the cool part: people are surprised.

More on the story:
KV Pharmaceutical of suburban St.Louis won government approval to exclusively sell the drug, known as Makena (Mah-KEE'-Nah). The March of Dimes and many obstetricians supported that because it means quality will be more consistent and it will be easier to get.

None of them anticipated the dramatic price hike, though — especially since most of the cost for development and research was shouldered by others in the past.

"That's a huge increase for something that can't be costing them that much to make. For crying out loud, this is about making money," said Dr. Roger Snow, deputy medical director for Massachusetts' Medicaid program.

"I've never seen anything as outrageous as this," said Dr. Arnold Cohen, an obstetrician at Albert Einstein Medical Center in Philadelphia.

"I'm breathless," said Dr. Joanne Armstrong, the head of women's health for Aetna, the Hartford-based national health insurer.

Doctors say the price hike may deter low-income women from getting the drug, leading to more premature births. And it will certainly be a huge financial burden for health insurance companies and government programs that have been paying for it.

The cost is justified to avoid the mental and physical disabilities that can come with very premature births, said KV Pharmaceutical chief executive Gregory J. Divis Jr. The cost of care for a preemie is estimated at $51,000 in the first year alone.

That's wonderful. Here's another example of that kind of reasoning: Dying of thirst is painful, and it involves...well... dying. So it's worth $250 per cup of water to avoid that. So give me a monopoly and let me charge $250 per cup of water. I'll have a slogan: "Water: It's Worth It!"

Folks: it's simple. Regulation is by and large designed, implemented, and continued because it benefits a few large corporations. The idea that regulation is supposed to help citizens is laughable. I'm surprised anyone is still surprised.

Why would anyone think that THIS TIME, this time it will be different?

Sounds like a description of Obamacare: "None of them anticipated the dramatic price hike"

(Nod to BJH)

Maurtius: Paradise Not

Every time I wonder to myself, "Could Joe Stiglitz sell out his considerable talents as an economist any more than he has?", Joe goes and shows that, YES HE CAN.

Mauritius--Paradise. What can the US learn from this tiny island nations?

We can learn that capital is berry, berry good ting to hov, mon. (No, Mauritius is not in the Carribean, sue me). But, when the Mauritianians want a big night out, they go to...Madagascar.

Also, the reason the Mauritius doesn't have American problems is that they don't have the American government. I say we give them Joe Biden, and throw in Fanny and Freddie for a player to be named never.

Anonyman writes: "Having been there, I can say that it's nice, for a 3rd world country. But it's still basic, and basic infrastructure is - well - basic. When you arrive and go through customs you wait in line and a guy behind a tiny desk looks at your passport, and then stamps it. That's all, no computer, no questions, nothing. When I remarked how primitive it was they guy next to me said, in all seriousness, that it's much more modern since they got A/C in the airport.

The best part was that there is a highway across the island, but no overpasses. So every time there is an intersection you go through a traffic circle at 60 mph. It was terrifying, but not in a good way. I was about to vomit after the first one, sort of like when you at the amusement park.

So nirvana? Not really. But a great excuse to visit there as an "economist talking guy." "

Happiness is a Warm...Republican?

Two maps. You draw your own conclusion.

First, happy. Darker orange is happier, lighter is sad.

Then, Congressional districts that elected a Republican in 2010 (red is Repub, of course):


The happiest man in the US, in terms of statistical prediction. The scoop:

The New York Times asked Gallup to come up with a statistical composite for the happiest person in America, based on the characteristics that most closely correlated with happiness in 2010. Men, for example, tend to be happier than women, older people are happier than middle-aged people, and so on.

Gallup’s answer: he’s a tall, Asian-American, observant Jew who is at least 65 and married, has children, lives in Hawaii, runs his own business and has a household income of more than $120,000 a year. A few phone calls later and ...

Meet Alvin Wong. He is a 5-foot-10, 69-year-old, Chinese-American, Kosher-observing Jew, who’s married with children and lives in Honolulu. He runs his own health care management business and earns more than $120,000 a year.

That man is clearly a Republican.

(Nod to Anonyman, who once thought he was a Republican, but decided he hated being happy...)

Whole Foods!

The new North Raleigh Whole Foods opens March 16!

4.96 miles from the Rancho d'Munger.

Poor Angus.

But, help is on the way! It's the "Wrath of Grapes," or the Grapes of Wrath backwards, sort of.

Silly

Three silly things. Before you click: which one is the Onion?

1. Burglar showers, homeowner returns, burglar calls cops. Says he was afraid homeowner had gun! "I'm in the shower! There's a man with a gun in the hallway...what? No, it's his house, I'm robbing it. What? R-o-b-b-i-n-g, yes...Well, I needed a shower!"

2. Naked therapist. Says the therapist: "There's something about a naked woman that helps a man to really focus."

3. Tomato shaped like a duck. I like how they put a yellow duckie in the picture, just in case you don't know a "shaped like a duck" actually means.

Answer: I lied. They are all three real, if you can call them real.

Not What Metal, But What Factors

US Mint is soliciting public comment...sort of.

What new metals should we use in minting coins?

Except that they don't really want to know about metals. They want to know what factors we should use in deciding what metals.

The United States Mint is not soliciting suggestions or recommendations on specific metallic coinage materials, and any such suggestions or recommendations will not be considered at this time. The United States Mint seeks public comment only on the factors to be considered in the research and evaluation of potential new metallic coinage materials.

Welfare or Insurance?

Bob Samuelson and Mark Thoma are at it again. Samuelson claims that Social Security is welfare, while Thoma says that it's just plain old insurance. He repeatedly compares it to fire insurance.

Let's start with a list of "Why Social Security is NOT like fire insurance":

1. It pays off the same amount whether you need it or not.

2. The "premia" are not risk based in any meaningful way.

3. If you don't "buy" it, you go to jail.

4. There is only one company that "sells" it.

5. The "insurer" can unilaterally change the terms of both the premia and the payouts with no recourse for the "insured".

Ok, so it's not really insurance. Then what is it?

Well it's two distinct components. The first is the payroll tax, the second is the retirement benefits. The payroll tax falls on the relatively young, and the benefits are paid to the relatively old.

The confounding problem is that many people believe the payroll taxes they pay go to fund the benefits they will receive, which is completely untrue. The payroll taxes go to pay current expenses of the US government. They are just a tax on labor. The government is spending every penny of those payroll taxes to pay for current expenditures. There is no meaningful economic sense in which the current payroll taxes can even be said to be exclusively funding the current retirement benefit payouts!

Going back to the (bad) insurance analogy, the insurer is free to use your premia to buy fighter jets and space shuttles!!

So, is Social Security welfare then? Well the payroll tax component certainly isn't. The retirement benefits part certainly is.

But I will say this; it's a type of welfare that I think we should have! Not in it's current form, but as a means-tested safety net, and without the strange fiction that it's financed by the payroll tax.

Keep a modified (for the poor only) safety net, drop the payroll tax.

Replace the revenue by cutting spending elsewhere (you're on your own President Karzai!!).

A 12.4% tax on labor is a dumb tax in an era where we are worried about employment and middle class incomes and sending social security checks to Warren Buffett and Bill Gates is, if anything, even dumber!

Sweet Home Mississippi?

All hail to the State, with Patriotism so great, that less than 20% of its residents even have passports!

I was very proud to see that roughly 1/3 of my fellow Okies have passports.

Represent!!

Hat tip to LeBron, who grew up in New Jersey, that cesspool of disloyalty!

Wow! The Stuff Matt Y Knows!

The "Knowledge Problem" is a famous one in economics. Even a famous blog to go with it.

But there is NO KNOWLEDGE PROBLEM for Matt Yglesias. He knows all. Ay, marry now, unmuzzle your wisdom, sirrah!

Two tweets from this morning:

"I want to call it the rentier's fallacy: "If you don't let me overcharge, GDP will fall!" "

and

"Pharma frowns as consumers get access to useful medicine at close to market price: LINK"

In both instances, there is a correct price (Matt modestly calls it the "market price," but in fact it is the Yglesias Price, the price of God). Greedy, terrible people want to charge something other than the Yglesias Price.

But we must smite them! Price controls on rents, and force pharma companies to sell at marginal cost!

What, a shortage? Smite them again, for being greedy!

That's a lot of smiting, when it is the conceit that regulators (or bloggers!) think they know the correct prices that's causing the problem.

(I recognize that Michael G cringes, but my point is that I don't know the correct price, and neither does Matt Y. If you want to make an argument for rent control, it can't be about "overcharging." It just can't).

Should movies be subsidized?

Michael Kinsley says no. Interfluidity says yes.

Interfluidity is quite right that subsidies will increase the supply of movies, and seems to consider that a good thing.

I have to differ. The motion picture industry is a huge rent seeking contest that is socially inefficient, just like professional sports. A large number of people dedicate themselves to trying to get a desirable position and the vast majority of them will (a) fail, and (b) be quite unprepared to do something else.

Increasing the number of movies, just like expanding a professional sports league will most likely draw many more people into the rent seeking contest than it will provide positions for, thus making matters worse.

Los Angeles and New York are already teeming with waitress / cab-driver / hobo "actors" and "screenwriters" who are smart, talented individuals, well prepared for jobs they'll never get and generating large social losses by not having gotten a more general preparation and more productive jobs. Do we really want to encourage these kinds of wasteful outcomes in New Mexico and Michigan as well?

Occupations that generate rent seeking contests should be taxed, not subsidized!

We should be nudging people OUT not in to the motion picture industry.

Some Visionaries Fail, But Not All Failures are Visionaries

Had a conversation in Germany once, with a quite sensible man. We discussed the large number of solar panels on nearby homes. Germany, as I have written, has a climate where the sun is visible for about 90 minutes, some time in late July. That's it for the year.

I said it was not rational to force people to invest in solar panels.

He crowed, triumphantly, that it WAS rational, because of the enormous subsidies from the EU and the German government.

I stared at him, and tried (gently) to point out that he was ASSUMING it was rational. The fact that an activity is subsidized just means that the state takes your money at gunpoint, and agrees to give part of it back if you agree to do something you otherwise would not do.

In this case, only an idiot would put solar panels on houses in dark, snowy, cold Germany. Unless "the government" pays you to do it. But the government is bribing you with your own money, to do something that no sensible person would do. Yes, subsidies change the incentives. So does slavery.

My friend actually laughed, and said, "You economists. You never want to take anything on faith!" As if faith and religion were a big part of the lives of the German people. Or as if faith meant that installing solar panels at a cost per kw/hr that is triple the generation costs of other available technologies actually made sense, instead of being a boondoggle for the "Green Industry" pirates who run the EU like a whipped dog.

Anyway, a great story (shared by the Blonde) about faith-based energy policy in California. Just so many excellent little nuggets in this story. Glad to see that Californians can be just as ridiculously faithful as Germans can.

Game Theory: Nuts?

John Nash, Game Theory, and the Schizophrenic Brain

Donald Capps, Journal of Religion and Health, March 2011, Pages 145-162

Abstract: This article focuses on John Nash, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1994, and subject of the Award winning 2001 film A Beautiful Mind, who was diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia in 1958 at the age of 29. After presenting an account of the emergence, course, and eventual remission of his illness, the article argues for the relevance of his contribution to game theory, known as the Nash equilibrium, for which he received the Nobel Prize, to research studies of the schizophrenic brain and how it deviates from the normal brain. The case is made that the Nash equilibrium is descriptive of the normal brain, whereas the game theory formulated by John van Neumann, which Nash’s theory challenges, is descriptive of the schizophrenic brain. The fact that Nash and his colleagues in mathematics did not make the association between his contributions to mathematics and his mental breakdown and that his later recovery exemplified the validity of this contribution are noted and discussed. Religious themes in his delusional system, including his view of himself as a secret messianic figure and the biblical Esau, are interpreted in light of these competing game theories and the dysfunctions of the schizophrenic brain. His recognition that his return to normalcy came at the price of his sense of being in relation to the cosmos is also noted.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

********************

Dr. Laing and Game Theory

(From which I conclude: (1) it is possible to misuse game theory for fun and profit; (2) British psychiatrists have appallingly bad hair; and (3) American psychiatrists have no hair at all)

Which is the Onion?

One, and ONLY one, of the following stories is from the Onion. The other two are actual "stories." That is, they were reported as true.

Try to guess before you click or mouse-over. See if you get it right: which one of these is the Onion?

1. New health study: staring at woman's breasts is excellent for heart health.

"Five-hundred men participated in the German study. Half were told to refrain from looking at breasts for five years, the other half were told to ogle them daily.

The study found the men who stared at breasts more often showed lower rates of heart problems, a lower resting heart rate and lower blood pressure.

The authors of the study recommend that men stare at breasts for 10 minutes a day."

2. Glad you are out of Libya. But what were you thinking?

State Department officials charged with evacuating nearly 200 Americans from Tripoli last week shepherded the U.S. citizens aboard a ferry, assessed their need for medical attention, and then asked them what the hell they were doing in Libya in the first place.

"We are pleased these Americans are now out of harm's way, but, really, why would anyone want to go to Libya?" a U.S. official told reporters, offering a list of more than 20 countries that are safer, more fun, and "just seem like more logical places to take a vacation" than the repressive North African country.

3. NC Zoo adopts "Snotty the Snot Otter" as their official mascot.

"It made sense when the organizers of a North Carolina festival suggested that the state zoo here adopt a mascot to promote clean rivers.

Except that the creature in question is the snot otter. Formally known as hellbenders, which is not much better from a public-relations standpoint, snot otters are giant, slimy salamanders that lurk under big rocks...

Already up and wriggling is the mascot, Snotty, a big-tailed lizard look-alike with brown skin, beady eyes and stubby teeth.

He made his debut—with mixed results—at the New River Celebration in Laurel Springs, N.C., this past summer.

"There was really just one kid that was kind of scared of me," says Ben Stanley, 20, a student at Randolph Community College here who helped create the Snotty costume and wore it at the festival. "Most of the kids were just running all around me; one actually tried to pull my finger off." (Ed's Note: at the Munger house, the whole "pull my finger" thing is a bad idea)

(nod to Angry Alex)

(UPDATE: Pablo is right, of course, in comments. A hoax. Not even the Onion, just an everyday garden variety urban legend. I should have known. But since a newspaper carried it...anyway, ONE of the above is real, and TWO are hoaxes)

Official toothpaste of the Mount Pelerin Society

proven 98% effective in stopping partial differentiation!!

Soccer is just plain nasty

Good news on the jobs front

192,000 net new jobs last month. Unemployment falls to 8.9% (still a LONG way to go).

Both numbers beat the consensus forecasts.

33,000 net new jobs in manufacturing.

December job growth was revised up by 31,000 jobs and January job growth was revised up by 27,000.

Recycling Fail

Ann pretty much nails this, I'd say. Nice. On Wisconsin.

Some stuff I have done on recycling, verbally and written.

Taking care of Thomas

Two incredible take-downs of Thomas Friedman.

One is literary, and here's a sample:

But there are other critical factors integral to an understanding of my bollocks theory on the Middle East. Here they are:

MY MOUSTACHE – Americans have never really appreciated what a radical thing I did in growing a moustache, long the symbol of Arab male virility. I’m convinced that when Arab men catch a glimpse of my moustache as they bring me my breakfast in my hotel they are inspired and say to themselves: “Hmmm. Let’s see. He’s middle-aged. I’m middle-aged. He’s slightly tanned. I’m roughly the same colour. His name is Thomas. My name is Hussein. He is a prick. I sometimes act like a prick. He is not president of the United States. I am not president of the United States.


and one, my friends, is culinary:




both are awesome

Hat tip to BR!

IRP vs. Ysursa

Victory is ours.

Or victory is the 1st Amendment's, I guess. But still, I was the expert witness for the plaintiffs, in this case Idaho Republican Party.

Newspaper article. Check the comments.

Court decision. Win! We win!

Very interesting issue: are parties private organizations, able to decide how they select candidates, subject only to nondiscrimination restrictions? Or can the state decide?

This advocate for "independents" thinks its a bad idea. Ma'am, parties are private organizations. If you want to vote in a primary, register as a member of that party. And of course you still get to vote however you want in the general election.

In North Carolina, we allow independents to vote in party primaries. But Dems can't cross over and vote for Repubs. Why would Coke execs get to sit on the board of Pepsi and make marketing decisions?

More soon...

Safety first

If you are going to talk politics with an Ibex, be sure to wear your glasses!

What's in a name?

Well according to Thomas Friedman, President O helped kick start the Arab awakening simply by having the middle name Hussein:

“Hmmm, let’s see. He’s young. I’m young. He’s dark-skinned. I’m dark-skinned. His middle name is Hussein. My name is Hussein. His grandfather is a Muslim. My grandfather is a Muslim. He is president of the United States. And I’m an unemployed young Arab with no vote and no voice in my future.”

Journalist, please!

Loaded Questions: The interrogatory culture that is Germany

In an otherwise enlightening interview with Barry Eichengreen, I had to stop a couple times to compose myself after cracking up at the way the Speigel interviewer posed questions.

Here's my favorite:

Is there any desire in US political circles to do something about this problem? Just last December, President Barack Obama extended the Bush administration's tax cuts to 2012, even though tax cuts for the super-rich do nothing to stimulate the economy.

and another good one:

Are people in the US willing to save at all?

One more for the road:

Despite the current crisis, the economic fundamentals in the euro zone are still stronger than those on the other side of the Atlantic. Why are bond traders scrutinizing Europe but not the US?

Where have you been all my life?

Great story about the precariousness of coaching in the NBA:

According to the Boston Herald, Celtics coach Doc Rivers was quite impressed with the debut of former Thunder starting center Nenad Krstic.

When Krstic pulled down two offensive rebounds on the team's first possession, Rivers reportedly turned to assistant coach Lawrence Frank and asked, “Does he do that all the time?”

Frank, who coached Krstic during his early days, replied: “If he did, I'd still be in New Jersey.”

I enjoyed the Nenad Krstic era in the OKC, even though he always seemed slightly bemused/confused on the court.

Paradoxically, getting Perkins and losing Nenad might make Scott Brooks' job LESS secure. Now with a real center (assuming he gets and stays healthy), the Thunder have one less excuse and lack of results now will cause the fickle finger to more likely be pointed at Scotty.

And, make no mistake about it, the Thunder coaching staff are either weak on the Xs and Os or else weak on getting the players to execute the Xs and Os.

The Africa paradox?

While walking Mr. Tooty this morning Mrs. Angus and I were discussing why Americans visiting in Africa so often conclude that Africans are intrinsically more "joyful" and don't care about material things.

She suggested an analogy to the literature showing that people have a very hard time predicting the emotional consequences of being in unfamiliar, unfavorable situations.

For example, healthy people overwhelmingly say they'd be unhappy with their life if they lost a limb or were in a wheelchair, but people actually in those situations often report that they are happy. Here is a recent example regarding people with "locked in" syndrome. There is a term for this phenomenon; the disability paradox.

So maybe, when rich Westerners visit in Africa, they project their expectations of how happy they would be if they lived in the situations they see onto the local people. When these local people demonstrate that they are actually happy, it causes cognitive dissonance and the westerners attribute the paradox to some intrinsic otherness or lack of materialism, rather than recognizing that external circumstances do not determine happiness.

I am NOT saying poverty is a disability, I AM saying that the phenomenon of inaccurately predicting happiness in unfamiliar, adverse situations may apply more broadly than just to cases of physical disabilities.

Sheen-Gadhaffi Quiz

This is actually quite interesting. I got a 4 of ten, worse than random.

The quiz: who said it?

(Nod to Timmy G)

Women Do More Work Around the House...and the Senate!

The Jackie (and Jill) Robinson Effect: Why Do Congresswomen Outperform
Congressmen?

Sarah Anzia & Christopher Berry
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming

Abstract: If voters are biased against female candidates, only the most talented,
hardest working female candidates will succeed in the electoral process. Furthermore, if women perceive there to be sex discrimination in the electoral process, or if they underestimate their qualifications for office, then only the most qualified, politically ambitious females will emerge as candidates. We argue that when either or both forms of sex-based selection are present, the women who are elected to office will perform better, on average, than their male counterparts. We test this central implication of our theory by studying the relative success of men and women in delivering federal spending to their districts and in sponsoring legislation. Analyzing changes within districts over time, we find that congresswomen secure roughly 9 percent more spending from federal discretionary programs than congressmen. Women also sponsor and cosponsor significantly more bills than their male colleagues.

*******************************

Who Does More Housework: Rich or Poor? A Comparison of 33 Countries

Jan Paul Heisig
American Sociological Review, February 2011, Pages 74-99

Abstract: This article studies the relationship between household income and housework time across 33 countries. In most countries, low-income individuals do more housework than their high-income counterparts; the differences are even greater for women’s domestic work time. The analysis shows that the difference between rich and poor women’s housework time falls with economic development and rises with overall economic inequality. I use a cross-national reinterpretation of arguments from the historical time-use literature to show that this is attributable to the association between economic development and the diffusion of household technologies and to the association between economic inequality and the prevalence of service consumption among high-income households. Results for a direct measure of technology diffusion provide striking evidence for the first interpretation. The findings question the widespread notion that domestic technologies have had little or no impact on women’s housework time. On a general level, I find that gender inequalities are fundamentally conditioned by economic inequalities. A full understanding of the division of housework requires social scientists to go beyond couple-level dynamics and situate households and individuals within the broader social and economic structure.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Tower of David in Caracas

Tower of David: Amazing.

(Nod to Anonyman)

What I've been reading

Red Plenty by Francis Spuford. At its core, it's a narrative of the rise and fall of linear programming as the salvation of the Soviet system! It is funny, sarcastic, insightful and highly recommended, though I have to say it is a very weird book.

The Impenetrable Forest by Thor Hanson. A peace corp volunteer gets assigned to gorilla habituation in Uganda in the early 1990s. I started it because we are going to Uganda this summer, I finished it because it is a fantastic book!

Werewolves of Montpellier, by Jason. On Will W's recommendation I tried this graphic novella, something I'd never had read on my own. I have since bought 3 more of Jason's "books".

The Big Short, by Michael Lewis. If you only read one book on the crisis, or even if you only read one book all year, this should be the one!

The Washington Monthly loves its readers

It loves them so so much:

"Strange as it may sound, to get a grip on costs, we should in many cases be hiring many more bureaucrats—and paying more to get better ones—not cutting their numbers and freezing their pay. Because in many parts of government, the bureaucracy has already crossed that dangerous threshold beyond which further cuts can only mean greater risk of a breakdown. Indeed, much of the runaway spending we’ve seen over the past decade is the result of our having crossed that line years ago—the last time there was a Democrat in the White House, a divided government, and calls for slashing the federal workforce in the air."

Yes, people, they really said that "much of the runaway spending" is a result of having too few Federal bureaucrats! Talk about pandering to your audience.

This is just so far out there that no one can really take it seriously right?

Wrong!!!!

Everybody Wing Chau tonight!

If you've read Michael Lewis' book "The Big Short" (and if you haven't you are really missing something good), you know that he comes down hard on a particular trader named Wing Chau.

Well hot on the heels of Brat Pitt buying the movie rights to the book, Mr. Chau has decided to sue Lewis for defamation.

His complaint contains some interesting parts, for example:

"Wing Chau and his immediate family are Chinese immigrants. His father, Muk Loong Chau, fled Chairman Mao’s China in 1953 to make a better life for his family in America—to pursue the American dream. Mr. Chau was born in Hong Kong, where the family was waylaid for many year while awaiting a visa. Eventually, the family immigrated to Rhode Island, where his father took various jobs at Chinese restaurants, usually working six days per week."

Michael Lewis! You should be ashamed of yourself!!!

Here is more on the complaint and here is more on the saga of Wing Chau.

And here is something I've not been able to get out of my head since I read the Wing Chau portion of "The Big Short":

Okay, One for the Critics

I generally have little patience for the haters who want to blame America's collective and individual giant fat asses on fast food in general and Mickie D's in particular.

But...I have to admit the anti-oatmeal bitching is pretty much on target.

Tried it myself:

1. Asked for no cream and no sugar. Got both.
2. Took it back. Was assured that could be done. Got both again.
3. Took it back. Manager came over. No, turns out can't be done. Can redo without sugar if I really WANT to, but cream is already mixed.
4. I just left it on the counter, and left.

McDonalds insists you can customize, but it's actually not true.

California

An allegory of California government at work. (Nod to Timmy G)

The truth about the public sector union kerfuffle

Look people, this one is simple. Public sector unions are a taxpayer funded Democratic party vote and money machine. For that reason Democrats love them and Republicans hate them. Now the Republicans have the upper hand and are trying to do something about it.

Everything else in the debate is BS (perhaps the Oscar for BS could go to these geniuses who claim that taxpayers don't pay for the compensation of public sector workers).

So it doesn't matter if you can find a study saying public employees are over or under paid or have higher or lower benefits. It doesn't matter if you compare apples to apples or apples to hedgehogs. It doesn't matter if the unfunded pension liabilities are mostly structural or cyclical.

This is just straight up political payback. I wonder what the public sector union bosses expected would happen if the Republicans ever figured out what was going on and got hold of enough political power to do something about it?

Anarchy in the UC

Hayekian anarchism

Edward Peter Stringham & Todd Zywicki
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming

Abstract:
Should law be provided centrally by the state or by some other means? Even relatively staunch advocates of competition such as Friedrich Hayek believe that the state must provide law centrally. This article asks whether Hayek's theories about competition and the use of knowledge in society should lead one to support centrally provided law enforcement or competition in law. In writing about economics, Hayek famously described the competitive process of the market as a “discovery process.” In writing about law, Hayek coincidentally referred to the role of the judge under the common law as “discovering” the law in the expectations and conventions of people in a given society. We argue that this consistent usage was more than a mere semantic coincidence — that the two concepts of discovery are remarkably similar in Hayek's thought and that his idea of economic discovery influenced his later ideas about legal discovery. Moreover, once this conceptual similarity is recognized, certain conclusions logically follow: namely, that just as economic discovery requires the competitive process of the market to provide information and feedback to correct errors, competition in the provision of legal services is essential to the judicial discovery in law. In fact, the English common law, from which Hayek drew his model of legal discovery, was itself a model of polycentric and competing sources of law throughout much of its history. We conclude that for the same reasons that made Hayek a champion of market competition over central planning of the economy, he should have also supported competition in legal services over monopolistic provision by the state — in short, Hayek should have been an anarchist.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

I'm Pretty Sure This is the EYM's Gig

Don Q

Raoul writes: "Not sure why this made me think of you..."

Looks Heavy, Feels Light, Less Filling?

A number of "write your own joke" opportunities here...

The Brightness-Weight Illusion: Darker Objects Look Heavier but Feel Lighter

Peter Walker, Brian Francis & Leanne Walker
Experimental Psychology, November/December 2010, Pages 462-469

Abstract: Bigger objects look heavier than smaller but otherwise identical objects. When hefted as well as seen, however, bigger objects feel lighter (the size-weight illusion), confirming that the association between visual size and weight has a perceptual component. Darker objects also look heavier than brighter but otherwise identical objects. It is uncertain, however, if this association also has a perceptual element, or if it simply reflects the fact that, in English at least, the same verbal label (light) is applied to both surface brightness and weight. To address this, we looked for a brightness equivalent of the size-weight illusion. Paired-comparison judgments of weight were obtained for balls differing only in color. Based on vision alone, darker objects were judged to be heavier. When the balls were hefted as well as seen, this association was reversed (i.e., a brightness-weight illusion), consistent with it having a perceptual component. To gauge the strength of the illusion (in grams), a white and a black ball (both 129 g) were each compared against a set of mid-gray balls varying in weight. When the balls were hefted as well as seen, the white ball felt approximately 8 g heavier than the black ball, a difference corresponding to 6.2% of their actual weight. Possible environmental origins of the association between surface lightness and weight are considered.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Clueless white people

Aaaargh!!!!!

Why do so many white people love to take photos like this one???

That's LA Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw and wife with a group of Zambian orphans.

Even worse than the picture are his quotes. On Tosh.O there is a frequent segment called "is this racist"?

Well try this on for size:

“The people, as long as their basic needs are met — they’re not starving and they have shelter — are such a joyful culture,” Kershaw said.

“You come home and you see people striving to get more money, more cars, bigger houses and more possessions, thinking that will make them happier. You go to Zambia, it helps put things in perspective. You realize where happiness comes from, and it’s not from material goods.”

Ah yes, Africans are "joyful" and not materialistic. They don't want money, cars or big houses. I guess his evidence for that was that they didn't already have them?

I guess it's good that there are so many poor people in Africa. We need them to teach life lessons to self absorbed moronic celebrities!

Belated RIP for Escalade

Massive baller Troy "Escalade" Jackson died last week. He was a phenomenon to be sure:

I never knew that he was Mark Jackson's little brother. More here.

Hat tip to LeBron!

Elections Have Consequences: Dems Reap the Whirlwind

Barbara Boxer explains to Senator Inhofe that elections have consequences.


And of course, Jefe Obama got him a slice of that:

In Washington's current state of dysfunction, everyone has a favorite hyper-partisan moment. House Republican Whip Eric Cantor's moment came at a White House meeting with congressional leaders on day three of the new Administration. He handed President Barack Obama a list of ideas to fix the economy. Pointing to a small business tax-cut item, Obama said: "We disagree on tax policy." When Cantor tried to justify his own position, Obama responded: "Elections have consequences, and at the end of the day, I won."

But inexplicably the elected officials in Wisconsin trying to prevent a vote are brave and "love democracy." Nancy Pelosi unmuzzles her great store of wisdom:

"I’m very proud of what they are doing,” she said. “They’re standing up for the rights of America's workingmen and -women to have a voice at the table about their jobs and their futures, so yes, I support them.”

Working people have a voice at the table because their representatives wet themselves and run away and hide like scared punks? Here I thought elections had consequences, ma'am. In fact, I think you told us we had to pass legislation so that we could find out what was in it, right?

The fact is that Wisconsin is broke, and their government is broken. Nice piece in Reason on this. The business of the Democratic party is taking money at gunpoint and using it to overpay people for public jobs...so those people are forced by self-interest to vote Dem.

This means of buying support has long been the tactic of every dictatorship, of course. But WI, and CA, and OH, are NOT dictatorships. They are republics, and the voters are trying to fix things while there is still time.

Now, I agree that the Repubs in WI are grossly overplaying their hand. Attacking unions this way is way out of line, and they are going to pay for it.

Just. Like. The. Dems. Did. on health care. So spare the indignation, Dems. You taught 'em how to do this.

For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind: it hath no stalk: the bud shall yield no meal: if so be it yield, the strangers shall swallow it up. Hosea 8:7

The greatest thing to come out of George Mason!

With all apologies to Pete Boettke, it's got to be this (best to watch with the sound off because the guy is kind of an a-hole):

More on this tiny dancer is available here.

Kosmos Podcasts

So, the complete set of four Kosmos podcasts. (The Ward Boss is a smart ass. Just trust me...)

Dissertation and Research Agenda (LINK)

Publishing Your Work (LINK)

Obtaining Research Funding (LINK)

The Tenure Thing (LINK)

The distressing distribution of unemployment

We know that unemployment is still very high, around 9% of the labor force. Initial jobless claims fell last week to below 400,000, but the 4 week moving average is still right at 400,000. Historically, in a healthy economy this number should be somewhere between 300,000 and 350,000. But we are slowly moving in the right direction and the overall unemployment rate should start to fall (que dios me escuche!)

However, the way unemployment is currently distributed across the population makes me fear that, without some type of effective intervention, the new equilibrium unemployment rate will be higher than what we've seen in the past.

The share of unemployment that is long term (more than 27 weeks) is very high (almost half of the currently unemployed have been so for more than 27 weeks!), and the unemployment rate for uneducated workers aged 25 or greater is also very high (around 14% compared to around 5% for workers with at least a BA).

Long term unemployment always rises in recessions, but this case is exceptional as can be seen in the following graph (clik the pic for a more depressing image):

Today, Tyler links to an article where employers at a job fair are discouraging currently unemployed workers from filling out applications!

Here's a graph of unemployment broken out by education level (clik the pic for a more depressing image):

I know that I haven't shown that the long term unemployed and the low education unemployed are the same people, but I am pretty sure that at least a big chunk of them are, and it's a real problem because the obvious policy response would be to educate them and that is neither quick, easy, or cheap.

But the likely combination of persistent high unemployment and low earnings for folks with low education and America's increasingly dismal record of turning out quality high school graduates is truly distressing.

Hat tip to Calculated Risk for the excellent graphics.

Sammy P loves him some Perk

Presti said he did not enter the trade deadline looking to deal the 6-foot-9, 235-pound Green, a fourth-year player out of Georgetown.

"That was not an objective," Presti explained. "There were only a couple of players I would consider, and Perkins happened to be one of them.

"If we could not have gotten Perkins, we would have been happy standing pat (with Green on the roster), but you can't just get a guy like Kendrick Perkins. You can't just get guys like that. It will cost you something. He's a 26-year-old beast. He's a championship-level, experienced guy, but he's young. He fits our timeline tremendously."

Thunder muscle up

Nenad and Jeff Green to the Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson along with Mo Peet and DJ White to Charlotte for Nazr Mohammed.

Story is here.

I think I'm thrilled.

Jeff Green just was not a realistic power forward; he's much better suited for small forward but Kevin Durant is doing ok at that spot.

Now the Thunder have a defensive minded center and a back up center. I guess Ibaka and Collison will play the 4.

It's a little bit weird to get two centers an no power forward, but this is a great move I think. I'd like to know a bit more about Kendrick's contract situation and where the Thunder are going to move Nate Robinson, but I am happy given what we know as of now.

*******UPDATE***** Kendrick's contract expires this summer and apparently he's still not ready to play. So Nazr will be starting at center then? Green had to go, and I guess he didn't have too much value. I am still good with the deal. Thunder haven't committed money long term to any of these new guys.

Let the camera do its dirty work

Iran Radio Interview

Yesterday I did an interview with one of Iran's state-run media outlets, IRNA.

They are clearly pursuing the angle that Angus mentions below.

The line: Iran was first to overthrow American puppet government, in 1979. Rest of Arab world finally catching up, should acknowledge Persian/Shi'a leadership. In other words, Shah=Mubarak=etc.

Wow. Balls, that does take. Impressive. I can imagine some guys sitting around arguing about how to pitch this. Somebody comes up with the "Iran leads toward democracy and overthrow of Great Satan" bit. They all laugh, "No, that's too stupid. We oppress our own people." Then they look at each other..."Ya know, it could work! And it will be hilarious to hear the Americans sputter."

My Son, With Whom I am WELL Pleased

My boy, Dan Lee, has a nice paper coming out in PRQ.

"Anticipating Entry: Major Party Positioning and Third Party Threat"

Daniel Lee
Political Research Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract: Observers of U.S. elections have reason to believe that third parties are
not relevant political actors since they rarely win many votes or influence which major party wins an election. Researchers should use dependent variables besides vote choice and vote share to find third party effects that are a normal aspect of the American two-party system. A spatial model of elections motivates the hypothesis that a higher likelihood of third party entry induces greater major party candidate divergence. An empirical test that uses candidate positioning data in the 1996 U.S. House elections provides evidence of this third party effect.

So, here is the answer to the question, "Why run as a third party candidate?" We don't have to WIN to make a difference. And just the fact that a third party COULD enter conditions competition between the two state-sponsored parties.

The point is that when a reporter says, "But you can't win!", here's your answer. Opening the system to competition helps CITIZENS by making the big parties more responsive. And the article is fully peer-reviewed.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

QOTD

"It is unimaginable that someone is killing his citizens, bombarding his citizens, how can officers be ordered to use bullets from machine guns, tanks and guns against their own citizens?"

"This is unacceptable. Let the people speak, be free, decide to express their will. Do not resist the will of the people."

--Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Story is here. Who says this guy doesn't have a sense of humor?

Libertarian View of Unions

Will Wilkinson has a nice post on *a* (I won't say *the*) libertarian view on unions.

Not sure why Will can't spell "labor," though. Or "favor."

Real Hoaxes or Hoax Hoaxes?

1. At first, I thought this must be a hoax hoax.

But....it appears to be a real hoax.

Wow. P'wned by the Beast.

(Nod to Anonyman)

2. And this....this can't be right, can it?

-- U.S. sending officials to Europe to coordinate effort to stop "outrageous" violence in Libya, President Obama says. (CNN) (Slate update)

Really? President Obama's first instinct when there is violence always seems to be to call up some.... lawyers. Damn.

Reminds of a great old William Hamilton cartoon (can't find it online).
One guy talking to another, in front of some U.S. flags, obviously a government office. Upset guy says, ”I think it’s high time we quit shilly-shallying and put a couple of committees together to take a look at some of the contingencies of toughening our rhetoric!”

Go crazy, folks, go crazy!

Explaining Age in the EU

Nice article.

"Determinants of Age in Europe: A Pooled Multilevel Nested Hierarchical Time-Series Cross-Sectional Model" Uchen Bezimenia (World Academy for Government Progress. E-mail: uchen.bezimeni@gmail.com)

Abstract: Age is often found to be associated with a plenitude of socioeconomic, politico-administrative, biological and thanatological variables. Much less attention has been paid by scholars, however, to explaining ‘age’. In this paper we address this unfortunate scientific lacuna by developing a model of ‘age’ as a function of several factors suggested by (post)rational choice and social constructionist theories. Using state-of-the-art multilevel statistical techniques, our analysis allows the determinants of age to vary with the institutional characteristics of European countries. Our findings convincingly show that generalized trust in strangers, support for incumbent extremist political parties in provincial elections held in the month of January, and the percentage of overqualified women in the cafeterias of national parliaments are all statistically significant explanations of ‘age’. Our findings have obvious implications for conspiracy theorists, organizational advisors, spin doctors and ordinary charlatans.

Heh.

(Nod to the Ward Boss)

tUnE yArDs RuLe!

Wow, people, I am embarrassed that I missed this. Merrill Garbus, aka tUnE yArDs is fantastic. You can hear some songs on her myspace page, and here is a write-up along with an song from her upcoming (in April) new album.

Kind of a mix of Dirty Projectors and The Blow, with a touch of The Books thrown in.

Highly recommended.

Krugman in Oklahoma

Alternate titles: "The devil came down to Norman", "We came not to praise Caesar, but to poison him".

Regarding the second alternate title, here is an un-photoshopped picture of the entree from the gala dinner (clic the pic for a more un-appetizing image):

According to my sources, Krugman was Krugman: Insightful and analytical on international economics, predictably partisan on domestic politics.

Bad news for Tyler: PK confessed to not having read "The Great Stagnation", though he said he was a regular reader of "Marginal Revolution".

Good news for rich people: PK said that had he been president, he would have let all the "Bush tax cuts" expire, even though it would harm the economy, because he feels that it was the last chance to ever get rid of the cuts for the rich. He fears they will now be permanent.

While endorsing more stimulus and more infrastructure spending, he dissed high speed rail, saying it should be a very low priority at best.

All in all, he did an hourlong Q&A with students and some Econ faculty, then the "dinner" and a speech. Here is a write-up of the Q&A from the student paper.

Bottom line: I am so so so glad I went to the Thunder game!

Kosmos Podcasts

The complete set of three. One more to come, soon.

Dissertation and Research Agenda (LINK)

Publishing Your Work (LINK)

Obtaining Research Funding (LINK)

Enjoy! And thanks to JH for being so patient. She has memorized the intro by now, for my boring bio.

Classic moments in politics

In this video, Nixon takes action to "defend the American dollar" by closing the gold window and ending the Bretton Woods era. It is a masterpiece of doublespeak and obsfucation.

Of course, by defend the dollar he meant let it drastically depreciate against the German Mark. The speech was in August of 1971. Here's a picture:

Pretty Cute: Prez Obama Wishes My Niece "Happy Birthday"

My niece, Elle Sandifer, gets happy birthday wishes from our Prez himself.


A video from after; Elle is on the right.

"OMG!! He's so REAL..." Whatever else you think of the Prez, he is pretty smooth in these sorts of gigs.

Went to JBJovi Concert Last Night

My thoughts from Bon Jovi concert, from Twitter...Most recent first, read up from bottom...I believe I was one of seven males in a sold-out crowd of 19,500.

Jeez, the women here just went feral. "Bad Medcn" caused a shriek that rose far above the range of human hearing. Not sound, just pain. 11 hours ago

JBJovi concert: never has so much bleach been swinging and so much silicone flopping. These ladies are going to be sore in the morning! 11 hours ago

Opening act for JBJ was Billy Falcon. Impressive opening, charismatic guy. "Power Windows" 12 hours ago

Guy at Bon Jovi concert just walked up to me, said "You don't work here." He's gonna be busy. 13 hours ago

At Bon Jovi concert. Thousands of inappropriate 50 year old women, roaming in Chardonnay scented packs... 14 hours ago

The LMM is a BIG JBJ fan. He makes her happy. And if sometimes she calls me "Jon" when we go upstairs, it's a small price to pay.

Here is a representative sample of the entire arena.
(N&O: http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/02/21/1005895/bon-jovi-in-concert-022111.html)
With all that bouncing, there was a lot of Victoria's Secret product being asked to bear load factors, fore and aft, that had to be well beyond design tolerances. But I don't think there were any injuries. Hooray for American engineering!

And it was fun. (N&O: http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/02/21/1005895/bon-jovi-in-concert-022111.html)

(For these and other pix, go to N&O site...)

The People have spoken

It was no contest.

I'll be going to see Blake Griffin terrorize Jeff Green tonight with a friend, while Mrs. A goes to Krugmanfest.

I'll try to get a guest blogger to cover Krugmania for us.

Griffin or Krugman: You make the call

People, here's my situation.

Tomorrow at OU, Paul Krugman is speaking. There's an "informal" meeting with econ students and faculty, then a dinner and a speech.

I have tickets.

Tomorrow at the OKC Arena at about the same time, Blake Griffin and the LA Clippers will be playing the Thunder.

I have tickets.

Due to the great stagnation, we have no kind of transporter technology that can solve my problem.

I gotta pick.

Que hago?

Consumer: Control Thyself

(Along the lines of "Physician: Heal Thyself!", I mean)

Francesca Righetti & Catrin Finkenauer
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming

Abstract:
The present research tested the hypothesis that perception of others' self-control is an indicator of their trustworthiness. The authors investigated whether, in interactions between strangers as well as in established relationships, people detect another person's self-control, and whether this perception of self-control, in turn, affects trust. Results of 4 experiments supported these hypotheses. The first 2 experiments revealed that participants detected another person's trait of self-control. Experiments 3 and 4 revealed that participants also detected the temporary depletion of another person's self-control. Confirming the authors' predictions, perceived trait and state self-control, in turn, influenced people's judgment of the other person's trustworthiness. In line with previous research, these findings support the positive value of self-control for relationships and highlight the role of perceived self-control for the development of a fundamental relationship factor: trust.

------------------------

Self-Regulatory Strength and Consumers’ Relinquishment of Decision Control: When Less Effortful Decisions are More Resource Depleting

Murat Usta & Gerald Häubl
Journal of Marketing Research, forthcoming

Abstract:
Based on the self-regulatory strength model and prior research on self-esteem threats, the authors predict and show that delegating decisions to surrogates – such as financial advisors or physicians – depletes consumers’ limited self-regulatory resources more than making the same decisions independently, thus impairing their subsequent ability to exercise self-control. This is the case even though decision delegation actually requires less decision making effort than independent decision making (Study 1). However, the resource depleting effect of decision delegation vanishes when consumers have an opportunity to affirm their belief in free will (Study 2). Moreover, remembering a past decision that one delegated impairs self-control more than remembering a decision that one made independently (Studies 3 and 4). The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Angus Is Right, As Usual!

Holy cow, why so much hatin' on Angus?

Look, the welfare economics case for free trade could be built on (a) the Pareto criterion, or (b) the Kaldor-Hicks Compensation Principle.

As Angus notes, no way you can say moving from protection to free trade is a Pareto improvement. There are winners and losers.

And no Libertarian can invoke the KHCP, because it's collectivist and utilitarian. KHCP does not require compensation be made, and doesn't even require individual consent, and so it is inherently coercive. A majority decides on a policy, and the minority is harmed without its consent. Yes, perhaps the harm was caused by eliminating a policy (protection) that was itself coercive (consumers were harmed without THEIR consent), but you can't get to free trade unless you go the collective-coercion route. Angus is obviously right about that.

Two points: First, less of a problem if compensation is actually made, as I suggested last summer at the Takeaway.

Second, I have a paper coming out in an edited volume that points out the equivalence of KHCP and Coase, in terms of costs (in both cases, you are adding up costs and benefits). Differences are (a) KHCP doesn't require consent or compensation, while Coase requires both, and (b) KHCP faces the Hayek problem, because there are no prices to measure welfare costs. Coase forces bargaining and honest preference revelation, EXCEPT when transactions costs of collective action and preference revelation are too high.

Mankiw's leap

In last Sunday's NY Times economics column, NGM quite reasonably points out that voluntary exchanges benefit both parties in the exchange.

However, he then makes an unsupportable leap to the following:

Listening to the president, you might think that competition from China and other rapidly growing nations was one of the larger threats facing the United States. But the essence of economic exchange belies that description. Other nations are best viewed not as our competitors but as our trading partners. Partners are to be welcomed, not feared. As a general matter, their prosperity does not come at our expense.

I do agree that China is not one biggest problems the US is facing, but not for the reasoning that NGM uses which is that all voluntary exchanges are mutually profitable (read the article, it's the only principle he speaks of before giving the quote i reproduce above).

People, the United States is not a person! Only in DSGE models do we assume that all individuals are identical! There is no "our" to which general statements can be attached.

Yes, going from autarky to free trade will raise the GDPs of both nations, but that is a very far cry from saying that a large number of individuals will not be made worse off in the process. I figure that NGM is familiar with the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, so I guess he is assuming the political process always provides adequate compensation for the losers??

ROFLMAO, anyone?

Here's a case for free trade:

Individuals should be allowed to contract with whoever they wish, without government interference based solely on geography.

Now, that is not much of an economic argument, but, to tell the ugly truth, THERE ISN'T MUCH OF AN ECONOMIC ARGUMENT.

Once you factor in agent heterogeneity, imperfect competition, increasing returns, and an arbitrarily large number of traded goods, the welfare economics of free trade is murky at best.

Here's a political economy case for free trade:

Yes free trade has its losers and drawbacks, but the losses and distortions from free trade are far less than the losses and distortions from politicized, "managed", trade so free trade is therefore preferable.

Is there a bumper sticker big enough to hold that?

A TED Talk

Not sure the TED talks are much more than cream-skimming.

But this one is pretty good cream. Head foots.

Winning An Argument