Neanderbill: Doha Diarist

More greetings from Doha

You might like to hear about the country, and about where I work. As I learn more, I’ll tell you more.

1. Qatar
Qatar has more than 800,000 inhabitants, of which only some 15 percent are genuine Qataris. About half the total population lives in Doha, the capital. Workers are from all over; I was recently served by someone from Nepal. Some of you ask what the Qataris think and what they are like. I have no idea. Of all the many people I see, I know only one to be Qatari, and she is in my class. (On my sample of one, Qataris are very nice, very bright and I like them a lot.) We are all foreigners here on one or another kind of work permit. Many of us foreigners are from Arabic speaking countries, but one does not need to learn Arabic to get around. (I am working on the numbers, having thought that we used Arabic numerals. More on that later.)

It is very difficult to get Qatari citizenship (even harder than getting US citizenship). Perhaps the fact that lots of stuff is free for citizens, and that there are payments by the government to Qatari citizens has something to do with that. There are no income taxes.

Qatar is a monarchy, and an Islamic state. The main ways that this bears on me is that the workweek is Sunday through Thursday, with Friday and Saturday the weekend. Before 1971 it was a British protectorate. The al-Thanis are the royal family. The current Emir succeeded his father when the latter was off gambling somewhere. It is a tight ship, maybe a little like Singapore. The Sheika is the driving force behind the Qatar Foundation and Education City.

2. Higher education. There is a University of Qatar, and a campus of the College of the North Atlantic, a Canadian two year school. We (XXU) are part of Education City, a branch of the Qatar Foundation. There are five schools here, and we will be joined by Northwestern next fall.

The oldest is Virginia Commonwealth University School of the Arts in Qatar, founded in 1998. They have 193 students. Next oldest is Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, founded in 2002. They have 203 students. Biggest is Texas A&M University in Qatar (2003), with 268 students. XX University in Qatar was next (2004). We have 163 students majoring is Business Administration and Computer Science. We will have our first graduation at the end of this semester. We are starting an Information Systems major. We share a building with Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar (2005), which has 110 students. Next year we will be in our own new building, which we will share with Northwestern. Total enrollment among all the schools is 937, and as you see, schools specialize in programs that they are known for.

3. Bicycling XXU has informal volleyball, basketball, football and bicycling. I had known about the cycling and had shipped my bike over. The case and shipping cost more than the bike, which wasn’t real cheap (I was the first on my block to have disc brakes), but XXU gives us a shipping allowance for personal items that covers it. I have already been reimbursed.

There are “slow rides” on Fridays and “serious rides” (longer, with drafting) on Saturdays. (ED: FOGHAT LIVES!!)

So I went for my first ride on Friday, fully expecting to be a laggard on the fast rides, but to hang in there on the slow ones. Well even on the slow rides everyone else was out of sight within the first kilometer. We rode about 16 miles, most of it into a ~12 mph headwind. (I had already ridden over 4 miles to the starting place.)

I was a little embarrassed to be so slow, but was thinking to myself, hey, you’ve been on Medicare for three years! Pretty soon they noticed that someone who had started was not with them, and one or two people took pity on me and rode with me. This gave me company and kept me from becoming hopelessly lost. We got out into the outskirts of Doha after passing hundreds of Al-Mansions under construction. (That’s my inference of Arabic for McMansion.)

The other cyclists are very nice, and we agreed that I should stick to the Friday rides. Even so, there were two guys on Friday who had run a marathon in Dubai the previous week, and one of them is an ex-Marine tri-athlete who had done the Alcatraz triathlon. This means swimming from Alcatraz to San Francisco (brrr), biking ten miles on the hills of San Francisco; and then running for who knows how many more miles. Jerry Boskin, the tri-athlete has a sweat shirt on the Alcatraz Triathlon which has the slogan “between a rock and a hard place.” He claimed to be out of shape for biking, but I never saw him on the bike trip, he was so far ahead of me.

Well that’s the current news from Doha. About the only thing I am not enjoying is SXXXX’s absence, but we still chat at least once a day.

Breakin' it down, so we don't have to!

Some great links that break it down for ya!


(1) Long or Short Capital break down the allure of China


(2) Dan Drezner breaks down the Republican Presidential Candidates


(3) the WSJ breaks down the joys of price controls


(4) Tyler Cowen breaks down the joys of being alive (see comments as well as the main post).

Has it Really Come to This?

I guess it's high time we realized we are all just wards of the government and we better think twice before we become a financial burden to it. It turns out that there's no reason to fight obesity, because dying young is a real money saver. I am not making this up.

"Preventing obesity and smoking can save lives, but it doesn't save money, researchers reported Monday. It costs more to care for healthy people who live years longer, according to a Dutch study that counters the common perception that preventing obesity would save governments millions of dollars. "It was a small surprise," said Pieter van Baal, an economist at the Netherlands' National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, who led the study. "But it also makes sense. If you live longer, then you cost the health system more."In a paper published online Monday in the Public Library of Science Medicine journal, Dutch researchers found that the health costs of thin and healthy people in adulthood are more expensive than those of either fat people or smokers....Ultimately, the thin and healthy group cost the most, about $417,000, from age 20 on. The cost of care for obese people was $371,000, and for smokers, about $326,000. The results counter the common perception that preventing obesity will save health systems worldwide millions of dollars."


Five observations:

(1) I swear this is not from the Onion.

(2) Wouldn't it be best to have fat smokers? Would that not stand a good chance of getting our cost to the government down below $300,000?

(3) Are there really no important benefits from living longer and healthier lives? Really?

(4) Isn't the logical end of this road an extremely repugnant one?? Once your health care costs the government over $250,000, you're done. You're soylent green.

(5) Crap like this makes me more convinced than ever that I do not want any sort of single payer government monopoly health care system.

So grab some Krispy Kreme and fire up a Camel, people. We don't want to be a burden on the gubmint when our tax-paying days are through!

Gridlock and Flip-Flops

Tomorrow is the big day, and the conventional wisdom is that McCain will emerge with a stranglehold on the nomination while Obama and Clinton will still be in a dogfight.

However, pollsters have not exactly covered themselves in glory so far this primary season, so I think anything can still happen (well, Ron Paul ain't gonna win, but you know what I mean).

I base my political wishes on two things. (1) a fervent desire for gridlock. (2) a visceral hatred of flip-floppers and panderers.

This of course puts me rooting for the Republicans in the general election for reason (1), and preferring Obama over Clinton and McCain by a mile over Romney (as Don Rickles is ironically known as Mr. Warmth, so could Mitt be known as Mr. Sincerity), for reason (2).

However, I think that Hillary is more "beatable" in the general election so (1) weighs in her favor there. It would be optimal on gridlock grounds to have McCain vs. Hillary, but I still actually find myself rooting for Barack Obama to secure the nomination. I always thought I was lexicographic in gridlock, but maybe not. In fact, definitely not. If Romney is the nominee, I'll support the Democratic candidate (Ann Coulter style)!! Take that Mitt you evil flip-flopper!

Any predictions people??

Your Monday UK Roundup

1. Don't know much about history....

"Britons are losing their grip on reality, according to a poll out Monday which showed that nearly a quarter think Winston Churchill was a myth while the majority reckon Sherlock Holmes was real."


2. Telephone for Colin Montgomerie!

"British women had facelifts and men had tummy tucks and "man boobs" removed in record in numbers in 2007, new data released on Monday revealed. According to the British Association of Aesthetic Plastic Surgeons (BAAPS), 32,453 surgical procedures were carried out on men and women in Britain last year, a 12.2 percent increase on 2006".

3. I think they better change the name.

An American firm, General Sports and Entertainment, has acquired Derby County Football Club of the English Premier League. Derby have looked pitiful on the pitch this year and are anchored at the bottom of the league table, but GSE apparently see a future in the top flight for Derby.

The number of foreign-owned clubs is now at about half the league total, with four clubs in American hands (Aston Villa, Derby, Liverpool, and Man U). This is bizarre - is there any other prominent league like this? Of recent transactions that I recall, only Newcastle have been transferred to an English owner. Why the foreign invasion in the EPL?

Fair Division of First Possession for Football Overtimes

An article....

Excerpt:

In the National Football League (NFL), games ending in a tie are determined by sudden death overtime where the first team to score wins. Sudden death is an efficient means to decide a game which is violent and exhausting.2 However, the sudden death nature confers a significant advantage on the team who has the first possession. While the outcome of a coin flip to determine first possession is ex ante fair, immediately after the toss it is no longer fair because the winning team has a significant chance of scoring on its first possession. NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue has said that “There has been a trend in the last seven or eight seasons that the team winning the toss in overtime wins the game. That advantage of receiving the ball first is becoming unbalanced.”

An interesting point. We aren't supposed to be resolving the outcome with a coin toss. We are deciding FIRST POSSESSION with a coin toss, and the teams are supposed to play out the result, sudden death.

But if winning the coin toss is (nearly) tantamout to winning the overtime, then what is the point?

I think hockey, soccer, and basketball have much fairer systems for resolving ties. And baseball can be excruciating, but there is no question you get your shot in "overtime."

Football is the outlier, all right.

(Nod to KL)

The Best Email EVER, Prof Edition

An actual email, received from an actual student, by an actual professor. I have changed details and names, to protect the "innocent."

To put it in context, the prof is teaching an American politics course. Most
of the readings are on JSTOR. Here's the email:

Good afternoon-

XXXXX from your YYYYYY class (NNN) here, I just have a quick question for you regarding the JSTOR articles. I'm hoping/trying to get a jump on them and at least have them all printed out early and have them at hand.

But, regarding the {date} and {date} pieces, "Articles of Federation," and "U.S. Constitution," no authors were listed and I'm having some trouble locating the exact articles. And, when I search within the JSTOR database for "articles..." and "constitution..." there are a number of results.

-It just helps to have the author's name to narrow down the search to fewer articles within JSTOR and find the piece more easily.

I'm sure I'm missing something on this, but, could you lend a hand on this?

Thanks. :)

(Note the emoticon. Nice)

Oh. My. Goodness.

(Nod to {I can't even say. But a hearty nod!})

I get nervous when she's smiling

Obama is beathing down her throat, so why is she so happy?? Well maybe it's because she's fixin' to have workers' wages garnisheed if they refuse to buy health insurance.

But don't worry, it won't be expensive because "under her plan, she said, health care "will be affordable for everyone" because she would limit premium payments "to a low percent of your income."

Uh...., Holy Crap?? Personal choice? gone. Supply and Demand? repealed. Go Hill!!!




ps. from the same article linked above, Mike Huckabee says it's time for Mitt to drop out of the race (I am NOT making this up!!!):

"I think it's time for Mitt Romney to step aside," the former governor, who has won only the Iowa caucuses, said on CNN. "If he wants to call it a two-man race, fine. But that makes it John McCain and me."

Serendipity

During the long course of my painstaking research for the previous post, I found the following gem written by David DiBiase of the band "Breezewood Honeymoon"

"Now look at those professors—that’s the way you do it
You do your research with your PhD
That ain’t working—that’s the way you do it
Money for talking and write for free

That ain’t working—that’s the way you do it
Let me tell you those professors ain’t dumb
Maybe get a blister on their typing fingers
Maybe get a little blister on their tongues

They want to publish peer-reviewed papers
They got the fire in the bel---ly
They are movers and shakers
Because they have that damned degree

See that rumpled fellow with the pipe and the tweed coat
Granny glasses and the thinning hair?
That rumpled fellow is a famous scholar
That rumpled fellow is a luminaire

He wants to publish peer reviewed papers… (etc.)

Someday I’ll finish my dissertation
I’ll write it up and I’ll turn it in
Someday I’ll have me a tenure-track position
Man, that’s when the fun begins
I’ll teach class Tuesday and Thursday
I’ll leave the research to my advisees
I’ll criticize them in office hours
I’ll give them all the third degree

They’ve got to publish peer reviewed papers… (etc.)

That ain’t working—that’s the way you do it
They leave the research to their advisees
That ain’t working—that’s the way you do it
Money for talking and write for free"

These guys are GOOD

I suggest that any candidate struggling to survive the primaries would do well to consider employing the consulting firm of F&R Castro to direct their campaigns.

Yes it was just election time in Cuba people. 76 year old Raúl pulled down 99.6% in his legislative district topping even Fidel's 98.4%. The brothers apparently have huge coattails as their full slate of 612 other candidates all won election with a minimum of 73% of the vote.

How did Raúl do it?

"While far less prominent globally than his brother, Raúl Castro has long been popular in eastern Cuba, playing up his rural roots and down-home sense of humor. Some Cubans consider him more pragmatic than his visionary brother."

Oh and then there's this:

"There was only one choice for each office".


In the words of the philosopher M. Knofler:

"That ain't workin', that's the way you do it".

Warmoak T sends a note, regarding this story.

Excerpt:

Economists are asking the wrong question, Mr. Bloom said at the panel. They assume that “everything is subject to market pricing unless proven otherwise.”

“The problem is not that economists are unreasonable people, it’s that they’re evil people,” he said. “They work in a different moral universe. The burden of proof is on someone who wants to include” a transaction in the marketplace. (Mr. Roth, who acknowledges that “economists see very few tradeoffs as completely taboo,” did not take the criticism personally.)

The theologian Michael Novak, who is also a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, similarly argued that “not all ethical principles fit under economic reasoning,” adding, “the resistance to money is very old and very deep.”

T points out that "An e-mail supposedly clarified Dr. Bloom's position:"

Just to clarify, my remark about evil economists was a joke. This was obvious at the conference itself, though unfortunately not from the NYTimes article.

Well. Here are my thoughts:

The desire to commit rape is also very old and very deep. But it is morally repugnant, and modern society has managed to force men to suppress this desire, partly through socialization and partly through the threat of punishment as a deterrent. Now, most of us agree that rape is a truly terrible crime.

Envy is also an ancient impulse, "very old and very deep." And it is not nearly as awful as the desire commit rape. But it is still bad. Why do government institutions, and psycho-babble "scholars," get to raise the morally repugnant impulse of envy to the status of a virtue? Society will only progress if we begin to treat envy, and the desire to control other peoples' property and bodies, the way we have already ostracized baser impulses.

Some other thoughts here.

(A caveat, to the hysteria-and-anxiety-professionals out there: The impulse to rape is morally more repugnant than the impulse to act on envy. They are similar in kind, but much different in the degree to which they invade one's person and one's dignity. Although, the forcible theft of property and livelihood based on "fairness", the brittle mask envy wears in the moral universe, can come close to rape in its effects. But, yes, rape is worse. My point is only that the fact that an impulse is "very old and very deep" doesn't make it right: rape is old and deep. It's wrong. Distrust of money, based on envy and superstition, is old and deep. It's wrong, too).

Alternative Alternative Music

The official Indie buzz is huge for NY's Vampire Weekend. Their first album is out and highly rated by Pitchfork. I have to say that they just don't do it for me, people. Their sound is tinny and forced. They seemed, planned, artificial, inauthentic. It seems like they are basically just "havin' a laugh".

Even the rave Pitchfork review describes them as "nothing but clean-cut pop and preppy new wave, tucked-in shirts and English-lit courses."

Ouch!

Let me suggest two alternatives to the alternative plat du jour.

1. Tokyo Police Club. They too have a new album but to me a way more indie vibe and sound. I really like these guys.

2. Times New Viking. Now these guys are indie as F***!! Hot Fuzz would be a good way to describe their sound. Highly distorted and highly recommended.

He remembers every kiss*

Magic Johnson sez the Knicks will make the playoffs:

They're going to make the playoffs and be a tough seven or eight seed," he said. "They're settling into their roles. There's no way I don't see them not getting in as the seven or eight seed, especially in the East."

The article points out that the Knicks are "only" 5 games out of the 8th and final slot right now, but somehow neglects to inform us that they are in 14th place (out of 15) with 6 teams between them and the promised land.

This bit of foolishness brings to my mind the immortal words of Jim Mora Sr.: "Playoffs?? Playoffs?? Are you kidding me?? Playoffs??"



*I have searched and searched but cannot find any video of Zeke and Magic's magic moment before the start of the 1988 NBA finals. Can anyone help me out?

Munger appointed to "Truth Squad;" Mayor Ness is an Idiot!

So, a gleeful reader sends this eclipping:

Sen. Barack Obama’s Minnesota campaign Tuesday announced the creation of a Minnesota Truth Squad, whose purpose will be to combat misleading information about the Democratic presidential candidate in the lead-up to next week’s “Super Tuesday” caucus night.

Duluth Mayor Don Ness and Sally Munger, daughter-in-law to the late state legislator Willard Munger, were announced as members of the state’s squad.

Ness took some criticism when it was announced that he was the co-chairman of Obama’s Minnesota campaign, with some questioning whether it would divert too much attention from his new role as mayor. He said Tuesday that he has worked 12- to 16-hour days as mayor while spending “maybe a grand total of an hour to an hour and a half” on the Obama campaign, and being a member of the truth squad should take only a few minutes out of the week.

“It’s my understanding that if a situation arose where we had an issue come up that I would have a perspective to share, that it would be a call to make,” he said.

Now, that is kind of funny: A Munger on Obama's "truth squad."
But the real bonus is the statement of the mayor there at the end. Let's parse it:
"It’s my understanding that if a situation arose where we had an issue come up that I would have a perspective to share, that it would be a call to make."

That is nearly perfect iambic pentameter, folks!

It's MY underSTANDing that
IF a SITuAtion aROSE
where WE had an ISsue come UP
that *I* would HAVE a perSPECTive to SHARE
that it WOULD be a CALL to MAKE.

(okay, needs more feet to be pentameter. But he was going for it, by golly!)

It just sings. It doesn't mean a damned thing, but it sings. Mayor Ness, you are my hero. You exhibit glibNESS, smoothNESS, and poeticNESS. The very epitome of mayorNESS, I would say!

I Kid Thee Not....

An actual letter, from the actual Deadly Toxin, at the actual UT-Austin, where I used to teach. If you don't believe it, check it.

An inconvenience to inattentive students

In the midst of all the political drama, entertainment tragedy and sports triumphs that permeate our senses, I have a small yet important request: Please place the crossword puzzle next to the Sudoku again! I find it difficult to slyly switch back and forth between them during the occasional class when my professor just can't keep my attention. This isn't to disrespect the professor. I enjoy my classes, but sometimes I just need a little break so I can focus my attention even more. I understand the demands of advertising can hinder proper placement of such puzzles, but I think I speak for much of the student body who enjoys such puzzles when I say, "Please, please bring it back." Thank you, Daily Texan, for keeping our distracted minds occupied.

Alyssa Hudson
English and government senior

A government major! Oh, the memories.

(Nod to the lovely and talented Ms. Barthelemy, who knows what she is talking about!)

Law Suit Coolness!

Wow! I'm surprised.

We won, or at least didn't lose. I was an expert witness in a case, where the ACLU and the Libs and the Greens are suing the state of NC to get the ballot access law changed.

And...well...read for yourself!

I have just been doing some research myself, and have supervised a dissertation, that shows that:

A. Easing ballot access makes the state-sponsored parties more accountable, and more responsive, to the citizens of the state. In particular, the Democrats are more liberal in states with better ballot access. It doesn't matter if a party actually enters on the left (Greens, for example). Just the THREAT of entry is enough to make the Dem candidates move left.

B. Better ballot access also seems to reduce corruption. Number of arrests, amount of money stolen, etc., all down if it is easier to get on the ballot.

(Nod to Anonyman, who was worried I might need a hug)

If Hugo Chavez was on Facebook it might look something like....

...This!!!!!

"Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!" (or Pretty in Pink)

Tiger Woods beware: Its the dawning of the age of.... well, this guy!



(and, no we didn't photoshop that photo)

Britain's Ian Poulter has, despite no PGA tour victories ever, announced that this year "Only I can challenge Tiger's supremacy"

Go on sir!

"Don't get me wrong, I really respect every professional golfer, but I know I haven't played to my full potential and when that happens, it will be just me and Tiger."

The Englishman, asked by the magazine to predict the winner of the first major of the season at the U.S. Masters in April, replied: "Put Tiger down for that one".

For the year's second major at the U.S. Open, he said: "You can put me down for that one".

Besides dissing all other pro golfers including the 21 others with higher world rankings than himself, Ian took a special shot at Ole Lefty (Phil Mickelson):

"Tiger is one in 10 million. "He is extraordinary. If you look at the rankings he is almost two and a half times better than the guy in second place."

Nicely done sir, Kudos to you.

UPDATE: Now, probably after seeing this blogpost, Mr. Poulter is (like Charles Barkely in his "autobiography"), claiming that he's been misunderstood, "The whole answer to the question has been taken out of context," he said.

Kudos hereby retracted sir for not having the onions to stick with what you said and take the heat.

Them Hornets are for Real!!

From our seats in the Ford center last season you could kind of see this coming. The OKC/NOLA Hornets were a good young team on the rise that got decimated by their big 4 missing a collective 126 games between them (Chris Paul (missed 18 games), David West (missed 30 games), Peja Stojakovic missed (69 games), Tyson Chandler (missed 9 games)). Even so they almost made the playoffs despite putting a pretty offensively challenged team on the court down the stretch. Chris Paul was GOOD and Tyson Chandler was scoring as well as rebounding.

Now, sadly for us, the Hornets are gone, but they are healthy and kicking butt in the NBA's tough Western Conference. Just a bit past the halfway point of the season, they are the biggest positive story in the Association, leading the West with a 32-12 record.

CP3 is averaging 20.6 points, 10.7 assists, 2.7 steals and only 2.6 turnovers per game. These are phenomenal numbers. For comparison, two time MVP Steve Nash's stats are 17.4 points, 11.9 assists, 0.7 steals and 3.7 turnovers.

David West puts up 19.5 points and 9.3 boards per game which is about the same as Kevin Garnett's numbers with the Celtics. Chandler is averaging 12 points and 12 boards per game and Peja is shooting over 45% from the three point line.

I know it's just the regular season, their bench is an issue, and the road to the finals goes through San Antonio and all that crap, but man the Hornets are doing great. I miss them a lot.

American Art

One of our (me and Mrs. Angus) favorite artists is Joe Ramiro Garcia. It's hard to describe exactly why I love his stuff so much. The appropriated images, the color combos, it's like Warhol mashed up with Hodgkin (with a lil bit of early Jasper Johns tossed in). Anyway, here is one of his pieces that currently hangs on the walls of Chez Angus:



And here is one that currently resides in the Pan American Gallery in Dallas that has been seductively calling to me for a spell now. Maybe when we get our stimulus!

Another Fed Cut??

I am fairly stunned by the prospect of another Fed rate cut only a week after the 75 basis point bombshell Ben already dropped between meetings.

As I've said here before, the situation still seems more like a crisis of confidence in financial markets than a down on the ground real economic recession. That is to say, the Fed should be focussed on its lender of last resort role for banks (which it has been doing with its auctions of reserves) and not its recession fighter role.

It's not just foaming at the mouth nut-jobs who feel the Fed is now more or less targeting the stock market, Here's Willem Buiter from the LSE writing in the FT:

It is now clear beyond a reasonable doubt that the Fed wants to prevent sudden sharp drops in the stock market. It has not, however, drawn the logical conclusion from this endogenous widening of its mandate. So instead of pussyfooting around with 75 basis point cuts in the target for the Federal Funds rate, I propose that the Fed put its money where its heart is by engaging in outright open market purchases of US stocks and shares.

Snap!!

Even though the initial estimate of 4th quarter GDP growth is a puny 0.6%, December durable goods orders were robustly up, Unemployment is still under control, new jobless claims are still under control. I continue to believe that inflation is a potentially serious problem that the Fed is exacerbating. Since August of 2007 the Fed Funds rate has been lowered from 5.25 to 3.5 and allegedly will go to 3.00 later today. At the same time CPI inflation has risen from around 2.5% to over 4%.

Even the Fed's own weird PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation minus everything that's going up measure is rising and it's being reported that the Fed may deliberately set real interest rates negative using even that measure of inflation. Just to be clear, this has already happened using regular data, the point is that soon the Fed will have to admit that they have pushed real rates negative even using their contrived "preferred" inflation measure.

Many people believe a major contributing cause to the financial problems we face was the Fed under Greenspan keeping rates too low for too long. Now we are going to fix or limit the effect of those problems by again creating negative real interest rates. Hmmmmmmm......

One man's nightmare is another man's Dream

Well not exactly dream per se, but in US politics I root for gridlock, and given the likely continuation of Democratic party majorities in the Congress, that means I need a Republican party candidate to win the White House. My wallet fears an all Democratic government and I have gotten a good whiff of the stink produced by our recent all Republican government. Bad ideas abound on both sides, so give me the status quo please!!

Now, Frank Rich of the NYTimes outlines how just such an appalling (to him) scenario could occurr: Hillary vs. McCain, or as Frank so charmingly puts it "Billary" vs. McCain.

The Republicans need to nominate a candidate that non-core Republicans might also vote for. McCain is that guy I think. Plus, any blah feelings about him from the base would be more than overcome by its rabid Clinton hatred. The risk would be some sort of third party run by Huckabee or Paul that would be the right's equivalent of Ralph Nadar's electoral adventures.

I'm not sure which part of this nightmare/dream scenario is less likely, each leg seems about 50/50 to me at this point. Hillary still leads in a lot of Supertuesday states (though pollsters have not been kicking butt so far this cycle) but the Clintons are getting eviscerated in the press (See Chris Hitchens' eloquent piece here, E.J. Dionne's here) and Obama got Teddy now!

If I can't have Kucinich - Paul, give me Billary - McCain and please universe, let McCain win!

Are there lessons for free banking in the Second Life Fiasco?

In the virtual world Second Life, they had a version of free banking. People could open banks, take deposits and pay interest and compete for deposits with other virtual banks. Linden Labs, the "game's" creator, took a Laissez-Faire no regulation attitude.

Apparently many of these banks collapsed after offering extremely high interest rates (over a 40% annual rate) to attract deposits, using the funds for speculative virtual investments and going broke leaving depositors holding the proverbial bag. In other words, fraud!

Some stories are here, here, and here.

Supposedly one bank's collapse produced over $500,000 in real money losses to its depositors.

Now I don't know much about virtual worlds or free banking theory, but this can't be good, right? Maybe at least it would make a good test question on Bryan Caplan's monetary theory midterm? Can these virtual worlds help us learn anything about real economies?

Duke Performance Art

I had a big day, on the pompous ass prof. front. A play, in two acts.

ACT I: Young female grad student comes into the Perk (coffee shop), announces she has had the hiccups for 90 minutes and can't shake them. I am sitting with a group of five or six other poli sci grad students.

Me: "Have you heard about the new political theory requirement? Every political science grad student has to take a course on the philosophy of Immanuel Kant."

Hiccup Student: "WAH! WHAAAAAAAH!?"

Me: "Just kidding. But it cured your hiccups, right?"

Student: "....omigod....that was terrifying. But yes, it did! My hiccups are gone. Thanks!"

ACT II: I am lecturing in the course John Aldrich and I are co-teaching. Student in front row (in FRONT ROW!) is holding up newspaper in front of his face. People behind him crane around to try to see. This is not the first five minutes of class. THis is 45 minutes in. The kid just got bored.

Me: "You know, I have to give credit where it is due. Most people, if they are going to disrespect the prof, and read the paper, would do it in the back. I guess I should be impressed, though: This gentleman cares so little what I think that he opens the paper up right here in front. Let's give him a hand, folks!"

(The class gives an enthusiastic hand for this show of juevos. But juevos boy himself turns a deep purple - red, for about 30 seconds).

Battle of the Recession Graphs!

According to my former student, friend and co-author Mark Perry (and endorsed by N. Gregory Mankiw), The job market is strongly signaling that we are not yet close to a recession.

Here's Mark's graph:




On the side of gloom and doom comes Floyd Norris of the NY Times arguing that the job market shows we are likely already in a recession.

Here's his graph:




Looking at the NY Times graph, it's pretty clear the prediction rests on joblessness continuing to rise strongly. The implication seems to be that hitting 13% means the rise to 30% and above is pretty much inevitable. Looking at Mark's, it's pretty clear that the prediction rests on January's new jobless claims being a good predictor of Feburary's March's and April's. I'd hate to think we were one bad month away from a recession!

Which graph do you like best? and why?

Everybody is finally equal

Somewhere (perhaps on Titan?) Kurt Vonnegut is looking down on the Democratic Presidential nomination race and smiling. Given all the problems Hillary's been having with a dodgy, white haired, scandal plagued, ladies man at the front of her campaign, the universe has acted to even up the score by giving the surging Barack Obama pretty much the exact same handicap.

Sorry Barack, but fair is fair.

No-no, Wojo!

I am gonna go a little FJM here. Yahoo sports columnist Adrian Wojnarowski sez Kobe Bryant is the choice so far for this year's NBA MVP, basically because it's his turn:

"Most Valuable Player: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

Sometimes, there are superstars due to win the Most Valuable Player Award. It is the year owed them. No one wants to hear this, but it’s true. Once Shaquille O’Neal left, Bryant was considered an unworthy candidate because the Lakers were still losing.

Well, they’re winning again now. Until Andrew Bynum went down, they were on the brink of the Western Conference’s best record.

Sorry, but just because the Boston Celtics have the NBA’s best record, it doesn’t make them its best team. They play in the Eastern Conference. What KG has done with Boston has been impressive – even inspirational – but it isn’t on a level plane with Bryant transforming the Lakers back into Western Conference contenders. Early in the season, it looked like LeBron James. Before he’s done, James will win four or five MVPs. But unless the Lakers collapse, I’ll make the Cleveland Cavaliers star wait a little longer.

To think that Garnett could have two MVP trophies before Bryant gets his first is unfair. To become an MVP, people told Kobe to win without Shaq. He’s doing it. This time, it’s his trophy."

People this is whack. Lebron James has NO ONE ELSE ON HIS TEAM. NO ONE!! When Lebron hurt his hand and sat out 5 games, the Cavs lost all 5. After a very slow start, they've won 10 of 12 so far in January.

Plus LeBron has beaten the Lakers twice this year already (including yesterday on national TV) outdueling Kobe both times (and the Cavs have won 5 straight against the Lakers over the last 2+ years).

Overall, LeBron is averaging 29.7 points on 48.2% shooting with 7.6 boards and 7.4 assists per game while Kobe is averaging 27.7 on 44.9% shooting with 6.1 boards and 5.1 assists per game.

No one is more valuable to their team that Lebron is to his, so if that's the definition, he's the mvp. His stats are better than Kobe's and he's outplayed Kobe twice head to head in games his team also won, so if it's who's having the best season, the answer is still Lebron.

The argument that someone is "owed" an MVP is ludicrous.

By the way, KG is averaging 19 points (on 55% shooting) and 9.9 boards. I don't see him in the MVP conversation. I don't even expect to see him in the NBA finals.

Hair Yesterday, Gone To Raleigh

Bayou Jack and Dutch Boy visited the Mungowitz homestead, and high school stories were told. Dutch Boy is actually considering moving, with his wife and fam, from the Nederlands to the Triangle! That would be great.

We had a great time. And, this picture was shared:


Wow. Nice haircuts, guys. I believe the year was 1976, if you hadn't guessed.

"Gangstaas! What's up?"

As you probably can tell from the title of this post, I took Mungowitz's advice and finally saw Superbad. I didn't like "The 40 Year Old Virgin" at all (just wasn't funny), so I'd been boycotting Judd Apatow films, but man, Mungo was so right on this one.

Mrs. Angus and I laughed pretty much continually through the movie.

I am seriously considering changing my blog name from Angus to McLovin, but I don't think I'm good lookin' enough to pull it off.



That guy totally made the movie.

Butt Whoopings

1. Obama 55, Clinton 27. Truly an epic butt-whooping.

2. After three rounds of the Buick Open, Tiger is 18 under (and 8 strokes in the lead), while his nemesis Rory is 14 shots behind.

3. Heat 98 - Pacers 96 (to snap a 15 game losing streak by what has suddenly become the worst team in the Association).

4. Unseeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over world #2 Rafa Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, in the semis of the Australian Open.

5. Related to #1, Edwards pulled in around 18% in SC. What do you call someone who gets their butt whipped by someone who got their butt whipped? KPC friend Steven Taylor suggests toast as the appropriate signifier!

Undercover Economist

It is fun to write essays on economics.

It is even more fun to read someone else's comments on your essays, when it is clear (as here) that the reader understands it even better than I did.

In fact, let me reproduce Tim's last paragraph, because it is better than anything I said:

There's a balancing act: too little outsourcing and a firm becomes a socialist state, denied incentives or price signals; too much and the problem of coordinating all the contracts becomes impossible.
It's worth thinking about how changing technology may alter this balancing act. The answer is not obvious. Some outsourcing decisions are made much easier to coordinate thanks to the internet and all the rest. At the same time, inter-firm communications also improve. And if the world is full of firms making more complex, intangible products, that may favour more implicit contracts and therefore larger firms. I simply don't know the answer and I'm not sure anyone else does either.

Yep, yep, yepper. No one knows, no way to know. But firms that figure it out make money, and get bigger.

Governments could never solve this problem, because (1) no price info, at any level, to make judgments ex ante, and (2) no profit feedback, to let you know if got it right, ex post.

Is optimal firm size increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same? I'll be able to tell the answer for 2008...in about 2010!

UPDATE: A reader notes I had botched the second link above. Fixed, now. Thanks!

leather hotpants yes, immigrants no!

From Spiegel comes word that Germany is not a multi-ethnic paradise.

here is one lovely anecdote from the piece:

"I recently interviewed an asylum seeker from Cameroon who was living in Potsdam, just west of Berlin. He said he was so used to people calling him "n****r" or making ape sounds at him that he no longer paid attention. The thing that really got to him, though, was being followed around shops or the local library by staff expecting him to steal something. Or seeing how guests in a cafe would remove their clothing from the coat stand he had just put his jacket on."


As for the title of this post, well feast your eyes people and don't forget to tip your server!

Our Favorite Commercials

John Thacker notes, in comments, he prefers the rap-inspired
commercial stylings of Sammy Stephens of Flea Market Montgomery.

"It's just like a Mini-mall!"

Sometimes, you just have to go old school. John, you win: that's
the finest commercial I have ever seen.



UPDATE:

Simon likes it.

UPDATE II:

I'm sorry. I can't stop. It only gets better. "Two Weeks
in the Hole."

UPDATE III:

Not surprisingly, the "copyright violation" videos got taken down. Sorry. The one with Randy and Simon was extremely good.

U Can't Touch this!

It's All Good

Longtime KPC friend Chris notes that "It's All Good!" motors
has commercials that will give "Mo Money" a run for its...money.

Now, THIS is messed up....

An article sent to me by an overjoyed reader.

Lenny Sapozhnikov, AFL-CIO deputy state director for Pennsylvania, recently talked with Michael Munger, president of United Steelworkers (USW) Local 1660, which represents workers at the Wheatland Tube Co., in Wheatland, Pa. Munger recently was elected vice president of the Mercer County Central Labor Council, and last week, he led a rally outside the office of Rep. Phil English (R) as part of the USW’s Protect Our Kids—Stop Toxic Imports campaign.

Q: You just wrapped up the Toxic Trade Day of Action on Jan. 16. Tell us more about the goals of this campaign and your own involvement.

Munger: The goal of the campaign is getting tougher trade laws and more stringent safety tests for imports coming into the country. We all heard about the unsafe products coming into the country. Kids are having contact with toxic chemicals in those products and getting sick. We have good safety measures in this country but no one is testing the imports. We want tougher trade laws enacted.

Mike, Mike, Mike: All we need to do is make final retailers responsible for the safety of the products, and open them to private lawsuits if the products they sell are toxic or dangerous. Common law doctrine of "last best chance," in a statute.

We don't want bureaucrats at the borders opening up container boxes, breaking pallets, opening shrink wrap, opening cardboard boxes, and then opening the plastic wrappers that protect toys. That will never work.

Just make the retailer responsible, privately, for products they sell. And the problem will be solved.

The "problem," in fact, is that we rely on the state in the first place. This is an easy problem to solve.

We do NOT want "tougher trade laws enacted," Mike!

Salt at the Chippy Shoppe: Stop the Madness!

You can't make this stuff up.

In time for National Salt Awareness Week starting next Monday, 13 chip shops in one town have been given shakers with only five holes instead of the usual 17 or 18.

The six-week trial run is going ahead in Rochdale, which has the UK’s third-highest death rate from heart disease and strokes.

Councillor Wera Hobhouse claimed the new shakers would mean “everybody was a winner”.

And I didn't. Make it up, that is.

Neither did Junksmith, just reported it.

Wera Hobhouse? Reminds of Ima Hogg. (And, no, she did not have a sister named "Ura").

Your Bill Clinton Roundup

Bill Grieder lambastes the Clintons

Eugene Robinson in the WAPO sizes up the many faces of Bill

Here the AP weighs in on Clinton's recent remarks on race and gender

Here's my money quote from the Grieder piece:

"The recent roughing-up of Barack Obama was in the trademark style of the Clinton years in the White House. High-minded and self-important on the surface, smarmily duplicitous underneath, meanwhile jabbing hard to the groin area. They are a slippery pair and come as a package. The nation is at fair risk of getting them back in the White House for four more years. The thought makes me queasy."

Ya, me too.

More Good news for Calderon!

The last two Mexican Presidents (i.e. the first two truly democratically elected ones) have had trouble advancing their policies because the old ruling party, the PRI, retains a large bloc of seats in the legislature and is their cooperation is crucial for the President's party (the PAN) to pass laws. This stalemate has so far blocked any sort of opening of Mexico's oil industry to foreign investment, despite the fact that PEMEX's reserves are falling and the domestic industry badly needs new investment.

However, over the last week, the PRI is signalling a willingness to allow some limited foreign investment in new explorations and to negotiate over further opening the energy sector. This is potentially a big victory for President Calderon as energy reform was/is one of his key issues. I wasn't wild about the fiscal reform "victory" he recently achieved, but this one looks promising.

Here is a Bloomberg story and here is a more recent piece from Reuters.

Nicely done Mr. President.


hat tip to Boz

One thing leads to another:

The Smugbone's connected to the Migrainebone!

Now hear the word of the Lord!!

"I can't call her sugar 'cause sugar never was so sweet"**

Sugar has enjoyed a massively protected status in the USA since 1937 (with the exception of a couple years in the mid 1970s). Tariffs, Quotas, Price Supports, Loans, and Restrictions on Domestic Production have all kept the US price of sugar well above the world price (I don't have exact numbers but I'm pretty sure it has generally been over double the world price). Here is a summary of US sugar policy over time.

Now Sugar has finally met NAFTA and it looks like Sugar will continue its winning streak.

NAFTA had a lot of its provisions phased in, with the more controversial ones pushed back. In the case of sugar, it was 15 years, i.e. now.

As of January 1, Mexican (and Canadian!!) sugar can freely enter the US market. However, the government is still committed to controlling the price of sugar! The new idea is that the Feds will buy up the Mexican exports and (wait for it, 'cause it's freakin' awesome) convert it to ethanol.

That's right folks, it's a perfect storm of stupidity that could get pretty expensive.

And it gets better: According to the WSJ (hat tip to John Thacker):

"Even sugar growers can see the fuss this might create unless Mexican exports are restrained. So they are now circulating still another set of recommendations in Congress that would explicitly control the amount of sugar Mexico is allowed to ship to the U.S., and vice-versa. No new competition would enter either market. To supervise this cartel, the sugar lobby wants Congress to establish a new binational commission. The proposal would also ban the re-exporting of foods (notably candy) that use sugar imported from a third country, and would sharply limit how much sugar could come from third countries. In other words, sugar would be renegotiated right out of Nafta only weeks after it finally took effect."

The articles concludes as follows:

"So Congress and the Bush Administration have to choose: Either defend the economic benefits from an integrated North American market, or bow to one of the world's richest and most destructive special interests."

Anyone wanna bet on the outcome? My money's on the "destructive special interests".


** Muddy Waters y'all!!

Assorted Links

1. Econ Journal Watch Watch!! The new issue is here. It's a good'n people.

2. Christopher Hitchens doesn't like Huckabee too much either.

3. What goes on during sabbaticals: the inside scoop.

4. The Australian Open is heating up. Seriously, it's a great tourney this year.

5. DO NOT mess with Ringo!

We Still Got It!

Fears that the world economy has uncoupled from the US and that we aren't the biggest game in town anymore may prove to be unfounded, says the NY Times:

Stocks Plunge Worldwide on Fears of a U.S. Recession

some highlights:

"The sell-off was evenly distributed from East to West, with indexes plunging in London, Paris, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul and Bombay. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange’s Dax index plummeted 7.2 percent, its steepest one-day decline since Sept. 11, 2001. The 7.4 percent drop in Bombay’s Sensex index was the second-worst single-day tumble in its history.

Stocks followed suit when markets opened in the Western Hemisphere. Canadian stocks closed down 4.75 percent, and a key market index in Brazil was off 6.6 percent.

In Japan, which may be facing a new recession of its own, most indexes were off by more than 3 percent on Monday and were down another 4 percent in early trading on Tuesday.

Those jitters extended to fast-growing markets, like China, and those, like India, that are thought to be relatively insulated from the United States. Shanghai’s Composite Index closed down 5.1 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 5.5 percent, also the most since Sept. 11, 2001."

Some thoughts:

(1) there goes the REST of my portfolio

(2) so much for de-coupling

(3) will the ECB be able to stick to their "no rate cuts" policy? will we get a natural experiment between accomodation (Bernanke) and toughness (Trichet)?

Watch your back Donald Owings!**

**for some context on the title look here

Sock it to me Baby!

Thank goodness that the Shrub is not too busy waterboarding that he can't stop and save us all from the scourge of cheap Honduran cotton socks!

What's that you say? Honduras is in CAFTA? Surely we can't unilaterally stop exports from a country with which we have a free trade agreement? Of course we can! The deal allows us to put tariffs on apparel items (I believe at the pre-CAFTA levels) "temporarily" if the domestic industry is harmed or threatened. We just have to give them 60 days notice and then announce our final decision.

Supposedly this is all because of one Congressman, Robby Aderholt, who represents Ft. Payne Alabama the erstwhile (and future??) sock capital of the world. He was the swing vote on CAFTA and his price was sock protectionism.

"Why in the world would President Bush go along with reinstating the tariff?

(Ed: Because he's a spineless moron?)

There's only one reason: a deal President Bush struck late one night in July 2005.

The Deal

That July night, Bush met with Fort Payne's congressman, Robert Aderholt, to talk about tariffs and the sock business.

That meeting was, most likely, the moment Aderholt had more power than at any other time in his life. The House was voting on CAFTA, the Central America Free Trade Agreement. The vote was an exact tie. Aderholt was the holdout. And President Bush very much wanted CAFTA to pass. So, Aderholt offered the president a deal: He could get his big free-trade deal only if he rolled back free trade on one industry, the sock industry.

"I told him this was what I needed," Aderholt said. "This was the one thing I had great concerns about."

That night, President Bush agreed to Aderholt's deal. CAFTA passed. And the White House gave itself a self-imposed deadline of Dec.19, 2007, to put back tariffs on sock exports from Honduras.

There is a further bizarre twist to this story. According to NPR, Ft. Payne isn't really hurting from the decline of the local sockmakers:

"Jimmy Durham, the county economic development officer, shows just how grim things have been for the sock business here.

On street after street, he points to buildings that used to house sock mills, most of which are now gone. With all these businesses shuttered, you might think Durham is in despair about the future of Fort Payne. He isn't.

Those closed sock factories are reopening as new businesses.

He points to Steadfast, which makes bridges; Ferguson, a major plumbing supply company; a distribution center for Children's Place; two new metal tube manufacturers; a high-tech label maker. For a town of only 13,000 people, this is a lot of new, good-paying employment. These jobs pay more than sock-making jobs.

In fact, most of 4,000 recently laid-off sock workers quickly found new jobs. It's an irony that reversing this tariff — fought for so hard by some in Fort Payne — will likely have its biggest impact thousands of miles away in Honduras."

Ya, but the bridgemaker and the plumber and the label maker aren't going to be beholden to Rep. Aderholt, now are they? And them damn Hondurans sure aren't going to put money in his coffers either.

So here it is people, in order to save free trade, Shrub was forced to destroy it.

Bonus fun fact: Speaking of Vietnam, did you know that William Westmoreland was the son of a textile manufacturer?

Mungowitz Goes to the Movies

My own attempt, three categories for the past year (yes, January to January, not 2007):

Best Movies:

Hot Fuzz
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
Superbad

Movies That Weren't Really That Good That I Loved Anyway:

Amazing Grace
American Gangster
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Knocked Up
Live Free or Die Hard
PS: I Love You

Movies That Were Awful, Just Awful:

Beowulf
Heartbreak Kid

(I should note: I didn't see Norbit, Sicko, or The Number 23. I'm not THAT stupid.)

Angus goes to the Movies

Mrs. Angus and I weekended in Dallas. Caught a Mavs game and saw a few movies. Against my inclination, but on the strength of its Golden Globe for best picture, one of them was "Atonement".

Holy Crap people. What a stinker! I was going all mystery science theatre on it, embarrassing Mrs. Angus. Let me be specific. The plot makes no sense, driven as it is by a string of impossibly unlikely coincidences and everything is melodramatically signaled well in advance of it's actual occurrence. Apparently torn between a happy or sad ending the filmmakers delivered both!! The movie is best viewed as a Monty Python-esque send up of British people. Everyone is a cliche. The foppish rich lads, the genius and perfect servant's son, the evil little girl, the hospital matron, the cockney soldier.

The half hearted attempts to show the horrors of war are basically laugh out loud funny for their surrealistic pomposity. No one seems real and there is nothing that makes you care or emotionally invest in any outcome, whether it be happy or sad.

Happy MLK (that's MLK NOT LBJ, Hillary!) Day

Mo' Money

For some reason, I have never seen these commercials. Fine work. (Here's one...a classic)

And, it is worth reading the comments on the YouTube entries. Some
folks take themselves VERY seriously. Check this exchange:

These commercials tickle me. Especially the white guy who try to act black using the latest rap slogan. But based on the nature of the commercials I know these locations are in run down neighborhoods. Not a place to be with refund money
JimmyShoe5 (2 weeks ago) Show Hide Marked as spam 0 Reply | Spam

I like these dudes swagga! I dont think some of y'all white folks understand black humor! This is great work...SUPPORT BLACK BUSINESS!!!
MOCHAFETISH1 (2 weeks ago) Show Hide Marked as spam 0 Reply | Spam

I just get the impression to sigh and say *ugh everytime I see these commercials. I've seen these commercials a lot since I've been in college (and the 1st time I saw it, I thought my eyes... and ears were playing games). I was a little shocked that something like this was a commercial.

This place has been doing business since 1995, so either something is being done right or there isnt anywhere else to go. Whatever the case, lately the majority of tv is going down hill!
michbearhunter (2 weeks ago) Show Hide Marked as spam +1 Reply | Spam

This s**t is airing around Detroit too. I'z gonna run right out and gets my taxes did by a bunch of gangstas. Yeah right!
Defender4all (2 weeks ago) Show Hide Marked as spam -2 Reply | Spam

AMERICA !!Welcome to Memphis.When Obama gets to be our next president there will be a MoMoney taxes on one side and a hot wings shack on the other side on every corner in this great nation.Thats the big change Obama keeps talking about.Oh gee whiz ,I can't wait.
JimmyShoe5 (2 weeks ago) Show Hide Marked as spam +1 Reply | Spam


This is a dumb comment. Must be a fan of Lil' Bush, the dumbest man on earth!!!
aloha0099 (3 weeks ago) Show Hide Marked as spam 0 Reply | Spam

10 year anniversery?! When was this commercial aired? how old is mo money taxes???
MOCHAFETISH1 (2 weeks ago) Show Hide Marked as spam 0 Reply | Spam

(Nod to J-DeB)

Neanderbill Writes From Doha

Neanderbill has been detailed to Doha, Qatar. His first email back:

It has now been about ten days since I arrived, and I have completed a full week of classes (out of 14). I was picked up at the airport by XX, whom I knew from YY. He brought me to my luxury apartment on the 14th floor of West Bay Towers, which overlooks a marina and the Bay. The apartment, which is supplied for me by ZZU, is bigger than the first house we owned. It was fully stocked with food and supplies. It has a washer/dryer, ironing board and iron. I still haven’t had to buy groceries, but will do so today.

(ED: YEAH, BUT DID YOU IRON?)

Campus (Education City) is on the outskirts of Doha, about 8 miles due west of the Bay. I caught rides to work from people who live in the Towers, until my rental car became available – the day before the first day of my classes, Monday January 14. I left early for campus that day, but there was a detour that threw me off, and I got so hopelessly lost that they had to come and get me. It was a little embarrassing because I pride myself on having a pretty good sense of direction, but I wound up due north instead of due west. It made me glad (just that one time) that they insist I carry a cell phone, which ZZU also pays for.

(ED: IRONIC, SINCE NEANDERBILL RIDES WITH ME, AND "BORROWS" MY CELL PHONE, IN NC. WHO KNEW HE WAS SELF-SUFFICIENT, ALL OF A SUDDEN?)

Why couldn’t I check the sun for directions? Because it did not appear for nearly a week. I was expecting weather that varied between warm and hot, but it has been cold and rainy. Not as cold as YY or even Raleigh, but colder than I expected (lowest since I got here was 46 F at night). The apartment has no heat, for all its luxurious appointments.

(ED: 46 AND NO HEAT IS, AS WE SAY IN MEMORY OF JOHN JAROSZ, A "MITE NIP.")

What does the city look like? Well I’ll show you when I get a camera. (My old one died, and they laughed at Best Buy when I tried to replace the 64 MB cartridge.)

(ED: YAY, NEANDERBILL! HOLDING BACK PROGRESS WORLDWIDE FOR MORE THAN 70 YEARS!)

There is construction all over the place. The architecture is mostly modern, often interesting, and I like the way they often work symbolic Islamic features into new buildings. The Bay has lots of high rise buildings (say 20 stories or more), but after I get beyond that going to work, it’s usually one or two stories max.

Beyond the green of the beautiful Corniche, a walk along the bay, almost everything is beige or tan. And construction is everywhere, to repeat myself. One wonders what this would look like if it were “finished.”

Is it safe in this part of the Middle East? There has been only one terrorist incident: a suicide bombing in 2005 that killed two, including the perpetrator. You are much more likely to die in a traffic accident. There are few traffic lights and many roundabouts, though they are installing more traffic lights. They are also cracking down with fines, which they tell me are in the thousands of dollars. I’ll try not to find out how much.

I’d say the drivers are moderately aggressive, and it takes a little learning to negotiate the roundabouts, because people turn right from middle lanes, and are expected to, and you need to coordinate your expectations with theirs. BTW, gas is cheap. Three fourths of a tank of my little Chevy Optra LS cost about $7. Lots of people drive SUVs.

(Part of a continuing series!!

Reproduced in full from one of my favorite Blogs: "Long or Short Capital"

Five Simple Steps to Becoming a Billionaire: The Greenspan Method

by Johnny Debacle

1. Become Fed Chairman
2. Lower interest rates until you create an asset bubble. Hold them low until stagflation is in the air and a real estate bubble is floating
3. Stop being Fed Chairman and release a book on how you didn’t do anything wrong and have no regrets. If possible, time it perfectly with the worst real estate market in generations
4. Join the hedge fund which has profited more in % and dollar terms than anyone else has from your mess (which you didn’t create)
5. Build a platinum statue of your muse, Ayn Rand, and sleep with it every night

It also helps if you are mostly unethical.

The Elder Younger Munger Should be a Musician!

In an earlier post, Mungowitz pointed out how his oldest looked like Robyn Hitchcock. Today, I discovered that he actually also looks a lot like Will Sheff of Okkervil River. Check it out!

Excuse me sir, Can I interest you in a nice fiscal stimulus??

Apparently everyone has decided that one is in order, we are now just arguing over whether to use Viagra or Cialis and what dosage to impart. Shrub has decided to go back to the rebate well.

Our bedrock economic theory says that rebates shouldn't work, right? Permanent income theory says we consume a fraction of our permanent, or lifetime income each period. So a one time rebate will largely be saved and consumed slowly over time. If we want a big increase in consumption, we'd need a permanent tax cut, right? But unless that was accompanied by spending cuts (or perhaps if it was money financed), simply deferring a tax liability doesn't raise permanent income either, right?

Shapiro and Slemrod claim that the theory is right, that rebates don't spark spending on anything remotely close to 1 to 1.

So, I gotta ask WTF, even though I know the answer. It's the same old shinola. Who cares if it works, let's just be sure we do something!

I guess this is why some economists are arguing that the cuts need to be targeted to people who will definitely spend it right away. Liquidity constrained people or Mankiw's "rule of thumb" agents.

Let me make this offer to Bush right here and now: Give it all to me, the whole stimulus package. I will spend every single penny within a month. I hate to do it, but hey I'm a patriot!

Baby 'tude

I have these friends. Can't identify them, but I do. And they have this baby.
Here is a representative photo.

Now, the mom is one of the nicest, smartest people I have ever met. But, if you cross her, if you go back on your word or if you are a rude jerk....well, that little apple didn't fall far from mother tree. That's what I'm sayin' here.

Great picture. Captures a certain something.

Truly we live in the best of all possible worlds

The wind beneath my wings!

People let me try to explain, why I'm enamored with Johnny McCain
He told Iowans (in a shopping mall?) that he opposed subsidized ethanol
The Michiganders too he cut no slack, "Them manufacturing jobs ain't coming back"
In South Carolina he put on a show, saying "that confederate flag has got to go"
I am no longer a callow youth, but Mr. McCain, he speaks the truth
In the past I've always chosen to abstain, now I'm thinkin' bout votin' and votin' McCain!

No Lurking

If you won't do it for me, or for Angus, do it for Amber: don't lurk.

Comment.

(nod to Chris, though he lurks sometimes)

What the heck else was he supposed to do???

I mean, they already took his license and the bar is too far to walk!

New Zealand: Drunk-Mowing Charge

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: January 16, 2008

Richard Gunn, 52, was driving a lawn mower down a street in Dargaville late Monday evening when the police stopped him and accused him of driving the mower while drunk, a police spokeswoman said. He had already lost his driver’s license and said he had since been using the lawn mower — top speed 5 miles an hour — to get around. The police impounded the mower for 28 days.

Does this remind anyone else of this? I like this movie.

And the truth shall set you free??

John McCain told the truth in Michigan, Mitt Romney did not. Now Mitt has won Michigan and John McCain has not.

"I've got to give you some straight talk: Some of the jobs that have left the state of Michigan are not coming back," McCain said Wednesday in Grand Rapids. "They are not. And I am sorry to tell you that."

McCain is largely bereft of economic nostalgia, saying in Livonia that it "wasn't government's job to protect buggy factories and haberdashers when cars replaced carriages and men stopped wearing hats. But it is government's job to help workers get the education and training they need for the new jobs that will be created by new businesses in this new century."

For those displaced by job loss, McCain has proposed new worker-retraining and short-term unemployment programs and suggested subsidies that would offset a disparity in salary for those moving to lower-paying work.

Meanwhile Romney, whose dad was once president of American Motors (the worst car company ever and yes I'm familiar with the Trabant) says he won't accept that "defeatist" attitude.

In Michigan, Romney's campaign has portrayed McCain's attitude as a gesture of abandonment toward the state, which Romney has identified as a "canary in the mine shaft" of the national economy. "It tells you he doesn't understand this internationally competitive world we live in today," Ron Kaufman, a Romney adviser, said of McCain. "You can not give away any job for any reason."

Now, Mitt is actually a smart guy, he knows he's full of it and he has no plans to deliver on anything he said. It's just noise, like all the other politicians, except for my boy John McCain. For all McCain's faults I love how he lays the smack down even when it's not in his best short term interests.

FARC Math

Over the past weeks the FARC has released 4 hostages. However, there are new reports today that they have since kidnapped an additional 6 people. They reportedly continue to hold around 700 hostages. We've noted Hugo Chavez's claim that:

"These are not terrorist groups, they are real armies, real armies that occupy territory in Colombia, that occupy a position," said President Chavez in an address to the Venezuelan National Assembly.

"One must give recognition to the Farc and the ELN, they are insurgent forces that have a political project, that have a Bolivarian project that is respected here."

Now it turns out there is at least one American who agrees with him, the noted diplomat Oliver Stone:

"Farc is fighting back as best it can and grabbing hostages is the fashion in which they can finance themselves and try to achieve their goals, which are difficult. They're a peasant army; I see them as a Zapata-like army. I think they are heroic to fight for what they believe in and die for it, as was Castro in the hills of Cuba."

Unbelieveable. From our pal Wikipedia:

The FARC-EP has employed vehicle bombings, gas cylinder bombs, killings, landmines, kidnapping, extortion, hijacking, as well as guerrilla and conventional military action against Colombian political, military, and economic targets, to attack those it considers a threat to its movement. It has not been uncommon for civilians to die or suffer forced displacement, directly or indirectly, due to many of these actions. The FARC-EPs April 16 and April 18, 2005 gas cylinder attacks on the town of Toribió, Cauca led to the displacement of more than two thousand indigenous inhabitants and the destruction of two dozen civilian houses. A February 2005 report from the United Nations' High Commissioner for Human Rights mentioned that, during 2004, "FARC-EP continued to commit grave breaches [of human rights] such as murders of protected persons, torture and hostage-taking, which affected many civilians, including women, returnees, boys and girls, and ethnic groups."^[29]

Krugman Forecasting Update

Greg Mankiw now weighs in, first saying that "his favorite forecasting services" are still predicting we will avoid an actual recession, and then pointing out that back in 2001, when we had our last actual recession, Krugman wrote that a recession was unlikely and any recession talk was political scaremongering by the Bushies.

Ouch!

The Onion Is The Source of Reality, Again

Have you seen my little "Sorry I'm Late!" essay?

This, from the Onion...a perfect dessert course.

(Nod to Mr. Reasonable)

From my Italian Wife....

From an email from my dear Italian wife, this story.
(If you don't think this could actually happen, you don't
have an Italian wife. And, she does make these anisette
cookies, and they are very good).

A SWEET STORY ABOUT ITALIAN COOKIES

This is for all the Italians out there, and those who are lucky enough to be married to an Italian, and even to all the friends of Italians.

An elderly Italian man lay dying in his bed. While suffering the agonies of impending death, he suddenly smelled the aroma of his favorite Italian anisette sprinkle cookies wafting up the stairs. Gathering his remaining strength, he lifted himself from the bed.

Leaning against the wall, he slowly made his way out of the bedroom, and with even greater effort, gripping the railing with both hands he crawled downstairs. With labored breath, he leaned against the door frame, gazing into the kitchen. Were if not for death's agony, he would have thought himself already in heaven. For there, spread out upon waxed paper on the kitchen table were literally hundreds of his favorite anisette sprinkled cookies.

Was it heaven? Or was it one final act of heroic love from his devoted Italian wife of sixty years, seeing to it that he left this world a happy man?

Mustering one great final effort, he threw himself towards the table, landing on his knees in a crumpled posture. His parched lips parted, the wondrous taste of the cookie was already in his mouth, seemingly bringing him back to life.

The aged and withered hand trembled on its way to a cookie at the edge of the table, when it was suddenly smacked with a spatula by his wife............

"Get out of here!" she shouted, "They're for the funeral."