It just gets better....my people in NC

So, the story gets betters. I mentioned before that the prison psychiatrist, after taking an inmate as a lover, ended up shooting him.

Some new interesting facts:

1. She shot him in the BACK, as he was getting out of the car, at his grandmother's house. Yeah, they were arguing, and he may have threatened her. But she shot him in the back.

2. She had a restraining order against the guy. Fair enough. Except that she decided she liked him, and drove him to the beach for a little swimming and recreation. Ladies, a hint: Restraining orders and little romantic trips to the beach, in the same week, constitute sending mixed signals. We men are just not that bright. So we can't figure out just what it is that you are telling us.

My sympathies pretty much always reside with the woman, in these cases. But how crazy must this woman be?

Wien

Two thumbs up, way up, for Wien.

We went on a six hour bike ride yesterday, around the city, on rented bikes. Now, 1 hour and 45 minutes of that time was spent at an outdoor "beach" beside the Danube canal, having a nicely chilled Gruner Weltliner, and soaking up the sun in a nice breeze. So it was not THAT arduous. And since you can turn in the rental bikes at one of many drop-off sites, and then get new bikes when you are ready to continue, that's all good. Very, very good.

On Saturday, it was a special day. It has been very warm here in Austria. So, I arrive, and the temperature drops from 28 to 14 for the high, with 40+ km/hr winds. We hid out in museums. Fortunately, Vienna has one or two museums to choose from, and so this was not unpleasant.

At breakfast yesterday, on Sunday, GameBill and I met the real life Bruno. Or not Bruno, actually. This young man was extremely fit, extremely well dressed (he was a waiter), and had the most beautifully applied eye and face make-up I have ever seen. You know how some women wear too much make-up, and it looks bad? Well, this fellow had on too much make-up, I suppose, except that it was so beautifully applied that it looked really good. I found him very attractive, and I'm not gay. So, Bruno, eat your heart out: The real thing is alive and well in Vienna, and hotter than you are.

I should note, in terms of contrast, that GameBill and I had just come from a mass at the St. Stephans Dom, where a large choir had performed Mozart's Missa Brevis (I think it was Missa Brevis in G, but will have to look it up). It's short, and rather pretty. To hear it as part of a mass at the Dom....a fine way to start your Sonntag.

The Culture that is Germany V

I was thinking about callin this post either, "I'm in love with you honey, but not that much!", or "Susanne Klatten is my ATM!". Here is the story from Reuters, and it's a good 'un.

"German police arrested three men suspected of attempting to blackmail Susanne Klatten, the country's wealthiest woman, by claiming they had a secret video of her affair with a Swiss gigolo, prosecutors said Friday.

Munich state prosecutor Thomas Steinkraus-Koch said the trio had been arrested last week by police in the northern town of Duisburg on suspicion of trying to extort 800,000 euros and a BMW luxury SUV from Klatten, heiress to the BMW empire.

"They sent a letter to her threatening to give the sex video they claimed to have to Italian media if she did not give them 800,000 euros and a BMW," Steinkraus-Koch told Reuters, adding that Klatten immediately forwarded the letter to police.

"We assume the story about the video was contrived. At least we have found no evidence of any such video after searching their apartments and computers. There is nothing to suggest they ever were in possession of such a sex video."

The three men aged 33 to 46 -- including one German and one Serb -- were contacted by a police officer posing as an acquaintance of Klatten, he said. They set up a contact phone number for the blackmailers and that led to their arrest.

Klatten, a member of the Quandt family -- the leading shareholders in carmaker BMW -- went public last year with the story of how her Swiss lover secretly shot intimate footage and later demanded tens of million of euros not to reveal it.

Helg Sgarbi, a former Swiss investment banker, was sentenced to six years in jail by a Munich court after he admitted he had seduced Klatten and three other wealthy women. He persuaded them to pay him nearly 10 million euros under various false pretexts.

Sgarbi, a Swiss army lieutenant, won over Klatten, a 46-year-old married mother of three, at a health centre.

She later handed him a cardboard box containing 7 million euros in 500 euro notes, believing he had paralysed a child in a traffic accident in America and was in need of the money.

Klatten ended the relationship after Sgarbi, 44, demanded more money. He responded by threatening to send photos and tapes of their hotel-room rendezvous to colleagues, family and media unless she gave him 49 million euros. She then went to police.

Klatten's wealth is estimated by Forbes magazine at almost $10 billion (6.1 billion pounds), making her the 68th richest person in the world.

The Quandt dynasty had close ties to the Nazi party and built its fortune supplying German army and railway worker uniforms. The first wife of Klatten's grandfather went on to marry Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels.

In March, a truck driver from Bochum tried to blackmail Klatten with a similar claim. He was seeking 75,000 euros and is now on trial in Munich for attempted blackmail."

So the actual sex tape dude ends up going to prison for extorting more money from Ms. Klatten and this inspires multiple other people to also try and extort money from her? I think they somehow took the wrong moral from the original story!

Does this oboe make me look fat?

“It’s annoying when people complain about the money,” the Vermont-based counselor Dr. Michele Hernandez, said. “I’m at the top of my field. Do people economize when they have a brain tumor and are looking for a neurosurgeon? If you want to go with someone cheaper, or chance it, don’t hire me.”

And what field is that you ask? Well it's college admissions counseling, for lack of a better term:

"Dr. Hernandez, a former Dartmouth admissions officer, says she counsels as many as 25 students in each high school grade each year. She also offers four-day “boot camps” every August in a Boston hotel, charging 40 incoming high school seniors as much as $14,000 each."

This is from an uproariously funny NYT article on the independent college counselor market, where people can pay "upwards of $40,000" for advice on how to get their kids into the college of their dreams.

There are three things I think are really funny here.

The first is that there is actually a market for this. College admissions involves filling out forms! These people are I guess life coaches (another occupation that astounds me by its existence) for 14 - 17 year olds, telling them exactly what to do so they will be able to write the proper magical things on the admissions forms.

The second thing funny thing to me is how bent out of shape people get about what college their kids go to. While it is true that certain colleges give one a leg up in the "real world", it is actually possible to go to almost any college and do well for oneself. I went to Cedarville College in rural Ohio, ended up at Washington University in St. Louis for grad school (by way of Miami of Ohio, my grandparents could never figure out what state I was actually living in) and have a career and life far beyond anything I'd imagined as a kid. And I am no big deal in any sense of the word.

Mungowitz went to Davidson in rural NC, then Wash U and is now Chair of Duke's polysci dept. John List went to Wisconsin Stevens-Point, got his PhD from the University of Wyoming, took his first job at Central Florida and became a full professor in Chicago's economics department within 10 years of getting his doctorate. Nathan Nunn went to Simon Fraser, then grad school at the University of Toronto, first job at the University of British Columbia and is now an assistant professor at Harvard!

If you raise your kids to think independently and love learning, where they go to college just isn't such a big deal.

The third funny thing to me is people who insist on being called "Doctor". In the opening quote it's always Dr. Hernandez. Angus' law of titles is "the more bogus the degree, the more people insist on being addressed by the title", so I assumed hers was either honorary or in education (which is kind of a distinction without a difference). Sure enough, I looked her up and she has a "doctorate in education from Nova Southeastern University". Sweet!!!!

What's in a name?

Bill Bonus here:

How I imagine heaven

The Culture that is Germany IV

From Reuters:

"German Police had to rescue a 20-year-old man from a train station suitcase locker after he shut himself in for fun and began to suffocate.

After a night out drinking with friends, squeezing into the locker had seemed like an amusing idea to the man, police in the southwestern city of Ludwigshafen said Friday.

But the laughter faded when he started to run out of oxygen and his companions couldn't open the locker. Police broke open the door and dragged the groggy man to safety."

I guess this just points out the fabulous quality of German public lockers: totally airtight!!

Paul Wolfowitz: right on the money, just like always

Try comparing his editorial in today's WSJ here with the facts on the ground today here.

Inductive Bias is Redundant

This exchange, on PSJR, caused me to shoot coffee out my nose.

Dork 1. Apologies to the quants if this is a naive question, but as someone just coming to quantitative methods I was wondering if there is anyone currently using machine learning algorithms to study political data?

Yes, I realize machine learning is going to be over my head by several decades, but I am excited about anything that promises to help manage inductive bias.

Dork 2. Define "inductive bias". How is it different from "bias"?

Comic Genius Quant Type 1. Define "inductive bias". How is it different from "inductive"?

Wien--Three Nights in the Lights

So...heading over to Wien, to visit with GameBill and enjoy the city. GameBill had suggested that I take the train (it's true you can get a ticket for 39 euro each way, if you get a ticket early. But that seems to mean "two years in advance.")

But Air Berlin has direct flights, Nuremberg -- Vienna, 90 euro, compared to 72 euro for the train. So, I broke my own rule (no planes while I'm in Europe, except going or coming) and got a plane ticket.

I am looking forward to it. Three nights, and no particular plans, except that GameBill and I have to work on our paper for APSA.

UPDATE: Looking at some touristy websites, I found the "Wine Tasting Bike Tour." Does anyone see a possible problem with that? As Lynyrd Skynyrd put it, "Oak tree, you are in my way." Still, tempting.

Oklahoma where the slurs come whistling out the Senator

Sorry for the commercial at the beginning but this is a good 'un!




Hat tip to Norman (who lives in Norman).

Confirm her

No one has come out of the Sotomayor hearing looking like anything but an idiot.

With the exception of Ms. Sotomayor, whom I like more and more, personally. I don't think we agree on much. But she is replacing that doofus David Souter, and I think she has a 25% higher IQ than he did, maybe more (she is surely a lot smarter than I am). And she is no more liberal than Souter, so no change in balance on the court. And she appears to feel obliged to give actual reasons, based on the law.

So, I say, confirm her.

This made me laugh.

But this time it's different??

Walking Through the Drive-Through at Naugles

All right, KPC fans, who is this fine fellow? He is a senior marketing manager at Avaya.

And he's married, I believe, to Risa P. Gorelick, at Ramapo College.

Finally, as the title suggests, this now-respectable gent is rather famous for insisting on walking through the drive-through line at Naugles, even on nights with heavy snow and wind. See, Naugles closed the main part of the building about 11 pm, but was open LATE at the drive-through. (And also early. It never closed). Just picture it: Snowing, dark, 2:45 am. Lots of cars in line. Car, car, car, guy standing "in line", car, car... Guy inside, running drive-through hears a voice order, thinks nothing of it. "Pull ahead please." Then, walking out of the night, dripping: the guy pictured above. (Except he had shoulder length curly hair then, and a big mustache.) No car, just a heavy coat. Pays for food, and strides into the blackness.

One of my favorite memories of Naugles: If you ordered the nachos, and a Dr. Pepper, the front person would yell back to the kitchen: "Macho Nacho, and a Doctor!" Here is (a picture of) an actual Naugles hat, worn by inmates: We made up a menu item, and tried to order it once, just to see what would happen: "Ort Egg on a Stick." The cashier did not see the humor in this request. (Maybe because she was wearing one of those hats, above). (To be fair, this was Angus's idea, through and through. I just giggled.)

Dick Naugle had two great ideas. One was the motto, which was printed on the napkins. I believe it went like this: "Dick Naugle says: Serve food fast. Keep place clean. Keep customer satisfied." We would sometimes debate if this was a badly failed attempt at a haiku. I still think it was.

The other idea was non-exclusive franchises. Another Naugles might open next door to yours. As was documented here, that turns out to be a bad idea, in terms of selling franchises.

Actually, Dick Naugle had one other idea: commercials many people found flagrantly racist. This is the only example I can find, and it's pretty tame.

Naugles was merged back with Del Taco in 1988. Naugles: RIP.

(A credit for the YouTube ad)

New Anti-Terrorist Weapon: Facebook. And IE 5.1. Oh, and PEANUT BUTTER. Check Your Closets

"[AUDIENCE QUESTION:] Can you please let the staff use an alternative web browser called Firefox? I just - (applause) - I just moved to the State Department from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and was surprised that State doesn't use this browser. It was approved for the entire intelligence community, so I don't understand why State can't use it. It's a much safer program. Thank you. (Applause.)

[SECRETARY CLINTON:] Well, apparently, there's a lot of support for this suggestion. (Laughter.) I don't know the answer. Pat, do you know the answer? (Laughter.)

[UNDER SECRETARY KENNEDY:] The answer is at the moment, it's an expense question.
We can --

[AUDIENCE MEMBER:] It's free. (Laughter.)"

[State Department town hall, July 10]

(Nod to Kevin L)

UPDATE: The rest of the conversation, reported in the UK....

"Nothing is free," Kennedy responded. "It’s a question of the resources to manage multiple systems. It is something we’re looking at...It has to be administered. The patches have to be loaded. It may seem small, but when you’re running a worldwide operation and trying to push, as the Secretary rightly said, out FOBs [for remote log-ins] and other devices, you’re caught in the terrible bind of triage of trying to get the most out that you can, but knowing you can’t do everything at once."

Clinton then told her staff to have a look through their closets. "The more money we can save on stuff that is not cutting edge, the more resources we’ll have to shift to do things that will give us more tools," she said.

"[That reminds] me of what I occasionally sometimes do, which I call shopping in my closet, which means opening doors and seeing what I actually already have, which I really suggest to everybody, because it’s quite enlightening. And so when you go to the store and you buy, let’s say, peanut butter and you don’t realize you’ve got two jars already at the back of the shelf – I mean, that sounds simplistic, but help us save money on stuff that we shouldn’t be wasting money on, and give us the chance to manage our resources to do more things like Firefox, okay?"

If the State Department buys less peanut butter, Clinton may even let them use Facebook. During a state department town hall meeting earlier this year, a bigwig at the US embassy in Mexico City told Clinton that the social networking site is a great way to prevent solipsistic stupid people from entering the country.

"Facebook, MySpace, and other web 2.0 social networking technologies will significantly enhance the Department’s diplomacy efforts and business goals," he said. "For example, an astute consular officer in Hermosillo recently used Facebook to determine a visa applicant’s ineligibility based on information contained on the applicant’s Facebook page, proving its value as an anti-fraud tool."

And Clinton seemed to like the idea. "We’ve got to figure out how we’re going to be smarter about using technology. So I think that’s a great example, the Facebook example. And you know, we might want to follow up on that example, checking out Facebook. For everybody who is applying for a visa, you just should know that the State Department is on the watch here for Facebook."

Interview on Health Care

Did an "interview" with old friend, student, and colleague Don Taylor. He posted it on his (relatively) new blog, FREEFORALL (that's a health care joke, get it, Free For All?). Anyway, here is the interview....

An excerpt:

Question 1. What is the biggest problem facing the U.S. health care system?

Sharply rising costs. Two ways to "solve" the costs problem: (a) give everyone insurance, so that they are insulated from cost increases. (b) reduce cost increases, and find ways to make basic health care cheaper.

(a) is the most talked about option, but it is a bad idea. Someone (the taxpayer) still pays for insurance, so we are not really protected from cost increases. The French economist, Frederic Bastiat, said that the state is the fiction that each of us should be supported by all of us. It may be that universal coverage for serious illness would protect people, but "free" health care is too expensive, unless we get a handle on costs.

Option (b) is much better, but harder, because medical lobbies and interest groups will fight it. The problem is that we do not teach, or reward, preventive action by citizens or basic primary care by physicians. NC has a big shortage in primary care, at every level.

Put it this way: I have auto insurance. But it does NOT pay for oil changes. If I don't do the oil changes, then the car will decline in value and break down. Nobody else has to pay for my bad decisions, and insurance won't cover the new engine if I ruined the old one by running without oil or maintenance.

Why should other people have to pay for the fact that I don't exercise, that I smoke, and that I eat a bad diet? "Free" insurance protects me against my own choices.

The answer is to lift restrictions on primary practice by Physicians Assistants and Nurse Practitioners. I'm not saying they should do annual check ups; we need docters, with broad training and experience, for that. But for many complaints, and for advice on diet and exercise, and smoking, even a simple computer based expert system can do a fine job. If I have a minor infection in my finger, or need my blood pressure checked, or want to know about the tingling in my diabetic toes, then I should be able to show up an office, without an appointment, and pay no more than $30 for the visit.

We can do this with oil changes, and it works fine! Why not with basic office visits? Right now, people delay going to primary care, or can't get an appointment. Then they have a REAL infection, or a stroke, or they have to have gangrenous toes removed at the emergency room.

Legalize health care. Allow PAs to practice basic primary care. And reduce the costs and hassle of going to the doctor. There is no reason it should be harder, or more expensive, than an oil change.

ATSRTWT

UPDATE: Don had this interesting piece recently, in the N&O. It is an interesting question, though I would turn it around. He asks, "Why not tax health care payments?" I ask, "Why not eliminate taxes on everything?" But we agree that the strange disparity should be ended.

Economics of Scalping

I have fooled around a little in print, and on podcast, with ticket re-selling.

So, the Bishop sends a link to this site, which I had not seen before. Very interesting, and good reading.

And, the Bishop notes, "There are some good posts on how to buy from scalpers. It made me feel OK about having paid $30 for $60 face value tickets to Cubs/Cards game last Friday. The game was in the 4th inning by the time I got there from the airport and I missed Albert's home run. I did see them walk him with the bases loaded..."

Preach, Bishop, preach!

Interesting CS Monitor Article

Terrific article in the Christian Science Monitor.

The reactions certainly are interesting, when questions get asked.

Duke did a forum on the question, some years ago. And, I am proud to say that Duke is by FAR the best place I have ever been in terms of openness to other points of view.

I'm not saying people won't argue. But there is a real commitment to diversity, and I credit our provost for that, I have to admit. He is a fine fellow. Personally quite liberal, but actually committed to real diversity.

(Nod to JB for the article reference)

Thomas Schelling speaks

on Waxman-Markey and the implications of climate change for rich and poor countries.

1. On Waxman-Markey:

"my only objection to Waxman-Markey is that it's such a hodgepodge, with all kinds of escape valves. And I don't think it's specific enough on what the cap will be from year to year to year. And also, it's 1,200 pages. And 1,200 pages implies that it's an awfully complicated hodgepodge.

If you were putting a cap on oil at the wellhead -- and a cap on coal at the minehead, a cap on gas at the wellhead, and on oil and gas at the port of importation -- so that it was essentially a cap on the fossil fuels, rather than trying to put a cap on electricity in the middle west versus electricity in the South. Or a cap on various manufacturing industries. Or a cap on refineries, even. That seems to me a not very serious way to tackle the problem where it originates. And my actual feeling is that the best you can hope for with this Waxman-Markey bill is that it'll take a few years to discover that it's a huge nuisance of the problem, and they ought to find a way to simplify it. And the way to simplify it is to put the cap on the fossil fuels, not on different industries."

2. On climate change's effect on the rich vs. the poor:

"If I were to come clean to the American public I would say that, except for a very low probability of a very bad result -- which is the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which would put Washington DC under water -- we are probably going to outgrow any vulnerability we have to climate change. And in case we'll be able to afford to buy food or import it is necessary. You know, very little of the US economy is susceptible to climate. All of agriculture is less than 3% of our gross product. Forestry may be endangered. Fisheries may be endangered. But recreation might actually benefit!

So if we can double our GDP in the next 70 or 80 years, even if we lose some of our GDP from climate change -- even if we lose 10% of our GDP from climate change -- we're still ahead so much that the effect of climate change wouldn't be noticed. But it would be pretty disastrous in a lot of the less developed parts of the world. And that's why I think it's crucially important not to demand anything of China, India and so forth that will significantly impede their economic progress".



Hat tip to Mark Thoma!

Try Harder, and Think

A thoughtful little piece from Nick T.

My Second Career as a Weather Forecaster: Not Working Out

I had scheduled a Bastille Day celebration, a mid-summer American style bbq to share the celebration of our French bretheren and sisteren. Had obtained, with help from the intrepid Hajo, a huge quantity of Hähnchenschenkel, weiners, kartoffelsalat, and a 30 liter wooden keg of Steinbach-Bräu (that was with the help of the lovely Eva, I should note, a sturdy lass when it comes to helping out with the beer and mugs.)

And I had reserved, with the help of Frau Uhlich, a terrific wide grassy spot, right on campus, and nice wooden tables and a fine large grille. (Okay, Martin was the brains behind all this, but I did what he told me, so I deserve SOME credit).

Then, Monday morgen, I look at many different weather forecasts. Rain. Rain all day. Two centimeters or more of rain, getting heavier throughout the day.

And so I postponed everything. Had to pick up the chicken thighs, but some extra marination and then freezing won't hurt them. Hadn't even bought the wassermelon or mais am kolben yet, because I wanted them to be fresh. And the hot dogs and potato salad will keep. But the beer, the location, the tables, the grille, the help, and all the guests....have to reschedule for the following week. A pretty big hassle, since everyone is trying very hard to help me, and now they are having to rework a pretty big set of things. (I can just imagine the conversations: "Wow, Munger is pretty high maintenance, isn't he?" "Um...yeah, he is. A nut.")

Tuesday morning dawns. Cold. Rainy. Blustery. I am vindicated. Except...it starts to clear up. Then, a little more rain, but big patches of blue in the sky.

By 4 pm, bright blue sunshiny sky, with puffy little clouds, just to mock me. By 6:30 pm, the time the party would have started if somebody we know hadn't panicked... a cool, clear evening, with the light clean smell that comes after (AFTER) the rain stops completely and definitively.

Honestly, I have been in Germany now for three months. At the time of the scheduled party, and for the next four hours, this was one of the three or four nicest evenings the WHOLE TIME I HAVE BEEN HERE.

I am afraid that Martin is going to pull something in his neck. Every time I see him, he is making a sincere effort not to giggle. Not that he actaully cares about my feelings. It is just that it is not necessary to say anything.

I HATE German weather.

UPDATE: A thunderstorm came through about 2 am last night. Since, it has been cold and rainy. Right now: 63F and raining pretty hard.

The only time in the last 36 hours that has not been cold and rainy was the six hour window when I had scheduled my party. In that six hours, it was beautiful.

UPDATE II: I'm not just paranoid. People have been telling that this summer is unusual. But wait: The average high in June in Erlangen is 22 C (72 F), and the low is 11 (52). The month of June averages a total of 10+ rain days. The average for July is slightly (1.5 degrees C) warmer, but with 12 rainy days. In short, this is not unusual. There just isn't any summer here. Curse you, Red Baron.

Who you got?

Tonight I turned off all the lights in the living room and was listening to Krishna Das in a peaceful reverie (while Mrs. A  was Wii boxing upstairs). Just me, Krishna, and the glow of my tube amp, when from nowhere it occurred to me: now that Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, Desmond Dekker, Johnny Cash, and Ali Farka Toure are all recently passed on, I might be listening to the best voice living on the planet. 

Seriously, who are the other contenders? 

Van Morrison is up there, Youssou N'Dour, Bill Callahan, and maybe Kurt Wagner? Anyone else? Maybe Jamie Stewart? 

I am not talking about favorite singers or great musicians, but best voice (Probably my favorite singer who doesn't really have a great voice but can really bring spirit and emotion is John Prine).

How great is it to be able to listen to any of these voices whenever you want?

OK, 'nuff said. Back to Krishna Das!

    

The Culture that is Germany III

In Germany, green means go!!!

Still I can't help but wonder if they really want their business done helmets off.

No Complaining, and No Politics. Othewise, say what you want!

Ken over at Popehat tut-tutts some things that need to be tut-tutted.

Economists Make Prediction, Prediction is Correct!

How Smart Are the Smart Guys? A Unique View from Hedge Fund Stock Holdings

John Griffin & Jin Xu, Review of Financial Studies, July 2009, Pages 2531-2570

Abstract: Compared to mutual funds, hedge funds prefer smaller, opaque value securities, and have higher turnover and more active share bets. Decomposing returns into three components, we find that hedge funds are better than mutual funds at stock picking by only 1.32% per year on a value-weighted basis, and this result is insignificant on an equal-weighted basis or with price-to-sales benchmarks. Hedge funds exhibit no ability to time sectors or pick better stock styles. Surprisingly, we find only weak evidence of differential ability between hedge funds. Overall, our study raises serious questions about the perceived superior skill of hedge fund managers.

-----------------------

Luck versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Alpha Estimates

Eugene Fama & Kenneth Frenchm University of Chicago Working Paper, March 2009

Abstract: The aggregate portfolio of U.S. equity mutual funds is close to the market
portfolio, but the high costs of active management show up intact as lower returns to investors. Bootstrap simulations produce no evidence that any managers have enough skill to cover the costs they impose on investors. If we add back costs, there is some evidence of inferior and superior performance (non-zero true alpha) in the extreme tails of the cross section of mutual fund alpha estimates. The evidence for performance is, however, weak, especially for successful funds, and we cannot reject the hypothesis that no fund managers have skill that enhances expected returns.

Since both of these results are PRECISELY what economists would predict, I expect to hear a little credit from you nay-sayers.

What I don't understand is why universities wasted so much money on high-priced investment advisers. Hell, I could have lost 20% or more of Duke's endowment, and done it for HALF the cost.

Fact is, Ms. Mungowitz and I bailed out of the stock market for our 401k money in August of 2007. Now, that was not the peak, and for a while I felt silly. But converting all of our stocks into cash and short term gov bonds certainly "made" us a lot of cash, from November 2008 through February 2009. And I didn't charge us any fees at ALL.

Called Strikes On Checked Swings

What is going on with baseball umps?

They are calling strikes on checked swings. I don't mean checked swings that went around. I mean a twitch, not even close to a real strike.

Both the home plate umps, and the 1st/3rd umps, are calling strikes that are clearly balls. It must be a policy.

I am not complaining in a partisan way; the Cards seem to benefit as often as they are harmed. What I mean is, the umps are calling it both ways.

But those are not strikes. What's happening here?

I am not the only one who has noticed, I should point out. Here, and here. Oh, and here.

Another example, perhaps the clearest I have found:

Umpire Jim Wolf who called the balls and strikes in yesterdays game for the Mets pitchers, and just the strikes for the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett, should be investigated for betting on baseball. Only someone who had money on the Yankees would have given Burnett those strike calls. The first and third base coaches must have been in on the fix too, as the checked swing strikes weren’t even close.

Sure, that guy is a Mets fan, and so not really to be trusted. But....c'mon.

Shaq attack

An embellished account of Shaq's meet up with Cav coach Mike Brown here.

Smarter Nations are More Liberal

IQ and the Values of Nations

Satoshi Kanazawa, Journal of Biosocial Science, July 2009, Pages 537-556

Abstract: The origin of values and preferences is an unresolved theoretical question in behavioural and social sciences. The Savanna-IQ Interaction Hypothesis, derived from the Savanna Principle and a theory of the evolution of general intelligence, suggests that more intelligent individuals may be more likely to acquire and espouse evolutionarily novel values and preferences (such as liberalism and atheism and, for men, sexual exclusivity) than less intelligent individuals, but that general intelligence may have no effect on the acquisition and espousal of evolutionarily familiar values. Macro-level analyses show that nations with higher average intelligence are more liberal (have greater highest marginal individual tax rate and, as a result, lower income inequality), less religious (a smaller proportion of the population believes in God or considers themselves religious) and more monogamous. The average intelligence of a population appears to be the strongest predictor of its level of liberalism, atheism and monogamy.

A blog post on the journal article..... Excerpt: Kanazawa uses a simple thought experiment to illustrate the idea that adaptations are “designed for and adapted to the conditions of the environment of evolutionary adaptedness, not necessarily to the current environment.” In other words, our very ancient ancestors’ environment.

Now, I am a fan of evolutionary biology. Evolutionary psychology is more speculative, but okay, can be interesting. But the kind of "just so" story being concocted here is just silly nonsense.

From the comments on that blog post: "It should also be noted that the Journal of Biosocial Sciences has a reputation for publishing offensive and poorly evidenced papers that make undeservedly big splashes."

Look, Dr. Kanazawa has happened upon a purely cross-sectional correlation, one that is easily explained. The more money the state spends on indoctrinating people in state schools, the more those same people favor state schools. Yes, there is a by-product, in that people with more schooling also perform better on IQ tests. But Dr. Kanazawa has uncovered either a wholly spurious correlation, or else one where the causation is actually reversed. It is not true that smart nations are more liberal. What is true is that liberal nations spend more taxpayer money on public education. Whether that is a good thing or not is debatable, of course. But it has nothing to do with the magic faeries that Dr. Kanazawa seems to see dancing in the air around him.

(A big happy nod to Kevin L. Bless you, lad. This is pure gold)

UPDATE: This paper, forthcoming in INTELLIGENCE, is much more carefully done, and is at least worth considering, in terms of its conclusions and results--Charlie Reeve, "Expanding the g-nexus: Further evidence regarding the relations among national IQ, religiosity and national health outcomes," Intelligence, forthcoming

Some Important Verbs

Angus and I have been having a small debate, about two verbs. But with help from Martin K., I have come up with the key distinction.

Angus claims (and rightly) that the verb "to Jess" means to make certain social commitments, perhaps only implicitly but still clearly, and then just completely blow them off. For example, if you are skiing with several people, and all make plans for going to dinner after the next run. Then one or two of the group see the route you are taking down, and with nothing more than a "I'm not going that way" take off down a much longer run, served by a different lift line. You have been "Jessed" (named after the master Jesser, Jess Yawitz. (A junior Jess master is Tom Gilligan, coming up fast through the rankings, for Jessing promised golf outings).

"To Munger" is, I would claim, somewhat different. I do have the habit of going to a party, and then when it is time to go I just leave. Not quite sneak out, but...okay, I sneak out. I don't like the whole big scene of taking leave, small talk, interrupting the conversation of other people just so I can go home. This is NOT Jessing, which involves the breaking of the promise for further social interaction. Anyway, Martin Kypta came up with the perfect short definition of Mungering: "To Munger is to waive goodbye." I wish I had thought of that.

UPDATE: Angus is going to argue that "To Munger" has at least two archaic meanings. The first is to use one's large (and possibly smelly) body to wind around plates or boxes of supposedly shared food items, thereby claiming them, much as a dog might. (And, yes, this did really happen, absolutely.)

The second is to make large (in fact, grandiose) claims about athletic skills and mastery of sports. It later turns out the actual talent level is much, MUCH less, and then the Mungerer will make some even MORE preposterous excuse. The excuse simply adds to the comedy material of John Jarosz, who retells the story four or five times each day for a month.

While I do honor Angus' position as the keeper of the flame of tradition, I think these two archaic meanings are no longer in common usage.

Faculty v. Student Football Match

So, here at FAU there is a summer party where faculty play the undergrads, in Politisiche Wissenschaft land, in a football match.

I was immediately pronounced "Captain." Yes, that thingie on my right arm says "Spielfuehrer"; I think I am going to ask the folks back at Duke to start calling me "Der Lehrerfuehrer." It has a certain ring to it. (oh, and yes, I realize they were mocking me, by making me Spielfuehrer, but they were mocking me in a friendly way. No, I'm sure of it. All the people trying to hide their laughter, they were just jealous. You know how people are.) I did get a picture of some of the students from my class. F and A, on the right side, both seemed to find all of this rather more amusing than I had hoped. Here is the "after the match" photo. Darned kids. They kicked our butts, 6-2. I contributed two assists, I should note. Both for the other team. (Look, the guy I kicked it to was wide open, and in front of the net. Sure, he was on the THEIR team, not mine, but he WAS OPEN. My teammates were not very impressed. "You are supposed to STOP them from scoring!) If you click on the photo, you will see IDs for Der Geist, Martin, Hajo the intrepid, and of course me (still wearing the Spielfuehrer armband). After the game, Der Geist went around complaining that he had forgotten to bring any underwear. This act played to mixed reviews, at best.

But it was a terrific evening. Very fun, a real sense of fellowship. I was proud to be a member of the department, if only temporarily.

Big Swinging Sports Cars

The effect of conspicuous consumption on men's testosterone levels

Gad Saad & John Vongas, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, forthcoming

Abstract:
Using evolutionary psychology as a theoretical framework, it is argued that conspicuous consumption serves as a means by which men communicate their social status to prospective mates. Accordingly, men's endocrinological responses, particularly their testosterone levels, are responsive to fluctuations in their status as triggered by acts of conspicuous consumption. Study 1 reports that men's testosterone levels increased and decreased partially (directionally), after driving an expensive sports car and an old family sedan, respectively. Additionally, the location of the drive, either a busy downtown area or a semi-deserted highway, partially moderated this response. Study 2 demonstrates that when men's social status was threatened by the wealth displays of a male confederate in the presence of a female moderator, their testosterone levels increased. This is suggestive of an evolved mechanism for responding to intra-sexual challenges. Collectively, these constitute the first set of studies to measure hormonal outcomes in consumer behavior.

(Nod to Kevin L)

T. Hobbes: Marginalist?

Der Geist writes with this question:

Did Thomas Hobbes have at least some glimmerings of the origins of subjective marginalist thinkings in economics?

Justice of Actions, is by writers divided into commutative, Distributive; ...Commutative they place in the equality of value of the things contracted for; and distributive, in the distribution of equall benefit, to men of equall merit. As if it were Injustice to sell dearer than we buy; or to give more to a man than he merits. The value of all things contracted for, is measured by the Appetite of the Contractors: and therefore the just value, is that which they be contented to give (Leviathan, chapter 15, paragraph 15)

Bringing their A game

Loyal KPC readers know that when it comes to the annual "running of the bulls" in Pamplona, I am totally rooting for the bulls (see here and here).

Well this year the bulls are not fooling around, as they claimed their 15th victim since the "festival" started keeping records in the early 1900s.

According to the NY daily news:

"The San Fermin festival Web site said the unidentified man was gored in the neck and lung during a run in which a rogue bull named Cappuccino separated from the pack, which is among the worst things that can happen at Spain's most popular fiesta."

"Rogue"? Really? Why not "Rational" or "Unhappy to be stampeded through the streets only to be ritually slaughtered later in front of a cheering crowd"

Spain is a beautiful country that I greatly enjoyed visiting but there is something deeply F-d up about a place where this is the "most popular fiesta" in the country.

Marc A: Back in the Game

Marc A has an announcement. Check it out.

The Culture that is Germany II

With any luck, this will be a long running series:

"BERLIN (Reuters) – A drunk German sparked a slow-speedpolice chase after stealing a tractor to get home from a nightclub after his girlfriend left without him, said police, who used pepper spray to try to stop the vehicle.

"After his girlfriend abandoned him in a night club, the 23-year-old driver, who doesn't own a license, commandeered the vehicle to make his way home," a police spokesman said on Monday.

Six police cars began trailing the tractor, which was chugging along at 20 km (12 miles) an hour, after they were alerted to the theft at about 5 a.m. Saturday.

Officers tried holding up stop signs and directing pepper spray through the open window to bring the driver to a halt.

They then tried unsuccessfully to end his getaway by throwing nail belts on the road, but the tractor's tires proved too thick, said the police spokesman.

The 40-minute chase finally came to an end when officers shot at the tractor's tires after it rammed into a police car and collided with another vehicle."

My favorite part? "Officers tried holding up stop signs!" Having visited Germany a couple times, I honestly can't  believe that didn't work. Maybe the dude was really Austrian.

NC Round-up

North Carolina News Round-up: Mayberry was never like this!

1. Bob Ethridge (D- ) actually managed to summon moral outrage about the chance that some large corporate chicken farms were about to go bankrupt. Bob's solution: Quick! Give them other people's money!

"I introduced this legislation because these farmers should immediately be eligible for disaster assistance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture,” Etheridge said in a statement.

“I will not stand by as rural America’s poultry producers are left abandoned by this economic downturn. We have a tool to help them and this legislation would give them a strong chance to get back on their feet.”

I always thought that a disaster was a hurricane, or flood. This is just straight highway Bobbery, though. Wow.

2. Barack Obama tries to start war with Italy:

President Barack Obama presented Italian President Giorgio Napolitano this morning with a gift from North Carolina.

Obama, meeting with Napolitano prior to the G-8 Summit, presented the Italian president with a variety of American wines. Included in the package was a 2008 Raffaldini Vineyards Vermentino.

Raffaldini Vineyards is in Ronda, between Winston-Salem and Wilkesboro, and the vinyard's owners were thrilled to have their wine included in the gift.

Nothing can possibly go wrong with this... It's not like the Italians know anything about wine, right? Ooops. I predict that Italian Air Force bombers are taking off right now, heading for Diego Garcia in retribution.

3. NC Senate Remembers Vernon Malone. I remember Vernon Malone, also. Last September, at a forum, a few weeks before the election, I espied Senator Malone standing by himself, having some refreshment at the soft drink table. I went over and introduced myself (we had met several times, but I knew he wouldn't remember, no reason he would, he met lots of folks, every day).

He was a very civil and genteel man, and took my hand and leaned over to hear what I had to say. As soon as he heard my name, he literally jumped back, dropped my hand, and half ran across the room to stand with some other folks. He did not look back.

I thought it was odd, but a moment's reflection reveals the explanation: He didn't want anyone to take his picture talking to me. There were in fact lots of reporters and media there. And, in the Senator's defense, I see his point. It would seem disloyal for a senior Democratic Senator to be seen talking to the Libertarian Governor candidate. No harm in it, but why take a chance of having to explain it, especially if I got free ink from it. It was nothing personal, just good political instincts on his part.

So, Senator Malone, you were a fine man, North Carolina misses you, and I don't blame you for high-tailin' it. You moved pretty fast for a 77 year old guy, I have to admit.

Overcompensation?

No Need to Over-Complexificate This

There is no need to overcomplexificate* this. I think the following study goes a couple of steps too far.

The Heritage of Herding and Southern Homicide: Examining the Ecological Foundations of the Code of Honor Thesis

Robert Baller, Matthew Zevenbergen & Steven Messner Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2009, Pages 275-300

Abstract:
The authors examine the ecological foundations of the thesis of a "code of honor" as an explanation for southern homicide. Specifically, they consider the effects of indicators of ethnic groups that migrated from herding economies (the Scotch-Irish), cattle and pig herding, and the relative importance of agricultural production across different areas in the Old South. Using county-level data on argument-related White male homicide offenders (1983 to 1998) from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Supplementary Homicide Reports, the authors observe the theoretically expected positive interaction between the proxy measure of the presence of Scotch-Irish communities, namely, the percentage of churches that were Presbyterian in 1850, and the number of cattle and pigs per capita in 1850. They also find a negative effect of an index of crop production in 1850 on argument-related offending. The overall pattern of these findings is highly consistent with the herding thesis advanced by Nisbett and Cohen.

Herding economies? That's full of sheep dip. It's pretty simple: if you give a bunch of Scottish Presbyterians guns, a LOT of people are going to die. And you can call it a code of honor. But it's more like one of Angus's jokes:

What is the origin of copper wire? It was a shortage: Two Scots, one penny.

*GW Bush may never have said this. But I bet he did.

(Nod to Kevin L)

The Culture that is Germany

"German police called to clear a road of a dead badger found the animal in question had in fact gorged itself on over-ripe, fermented cherries and, blind drunk, staggered out into the middle of the road.

"The animal's stomach had turned the fruit to alcohol and the badger was, to put it crudely, drunk as a skunk," said a police statement on Wednesday. "In addition, the badger was suffering from diarrhoea studded with cherry stones."

Prodding the reluctant beast with a stick, officers managed to persuade it to leave the road near the town of Goslar in northwestern Germany and to sleep off his night of excess in a nearby meadow.

"It could not immediately be established whether the badger got into trouble with his wife when he came home in such a state," the tongue-in-cheek police statement concluded."

Link to story with a picture is here.

Selection Trumps Socialization

The Culture of Academic Disciplines and the Sociopolitical Attitudes of Students: A Test of Selection and Socialization Effects

Mark Elchardus & Bram Spruyt, Social Science Quarterly, June 2009, Pages 446-460

Objective: Using cross-sectional and panel data, this article estimates to what extent the association between students' choice of academic discipline and their sociopolitical attitudes is due to socialization and selection effects.

Methods: This is done on the basis of seven incoming cohorts of students and one panel of students. Changes in the panel are controlled for contextual influences by comparing them to a control group.

Results: Both selection and socialization effects are observed. The first are, however, much stronger than the second.

Conclusions: Although the literature, and particularly the more popular literature, highlights socialization effects, these turn out to be very modest. Future research should address the questions of how and why students select academic disciplines in a way that establishes strong relations between those disciplines and their sociopolitical attitudes.

Interesting. I think this means that people are confused even before they BECOME sociologists.

A Truly Great Journal: "She Blinded Me with...An Inflatable Bra"

Dear Readers: I give you some highlights from the most excellent journal, "PERCEPTUAL AND MOTOR SKILLS." I am so glad that this journal exists. On the first two studies, I wondered, "Can men really be that stupid, and easy to manipulate?" Then I thought about it, and decided, "Yes, of course." On the third study: this can't be right. But it is certainly interesting. Presumably it was not replicated, in other studies, or we would have heard more. So what is the flaw in the research design?

Bust size and hitchhiking: A field study

Nicolas Guéguen: Perceptual and Motor Skills, December 2007, Pages 1294-1298

Abstract:
To test the effect of a woman's bust size on the rate of help offered, 1200 male and female French motorists were tested in a hitchhiking situation. A 20-yr.-old female confederate wore a bra which permitted variation in the size of cup to vary her breast size. She stood by the side of a road frequented by hitchhikers and held out her thumb to catch a ride. Increasing the bra-size of the female-hitchhiker was significantly associated with an increase in number of male drivers, but not female drivers, who stopped to offer a ride.

*******************************

Experimental pain thresholds influenced by sex of experimenter

K. Gijsbers & F. Nicholson, Perceptual and Motor Skills, December 2005, Pages 803-807

Abstract:
Thresholds for pressure pain were tested in 64 adult human subjects (age: M=22.0 yr., SD=7.5). The subjects were young adults drawn from a student population. They were divided into two groups of men and two groups of women, with 16 participants in each group. A female experimenter tested one group of men and a male experimenter tested the other group. The women were tested in a similar way by an experimenter of the same sex for one group and the opposite sex for the other group. The two experimenters were dressed in a manner that emphasised their gender roles. The men tested by a female experimenter showed a higher average pain threshold than the men tested by a male experimenter, but there was no difference in the average pain thresholds of the two groups of women.

**************************

Testing for telepathy in connection with e-mails

Rupert Sheldrake & Pamela Smart, Perceptual and Motor Skills, December 2005, Pages 771-786

Abstract:
This study investigated possible telepathic communication in connection with e-mails. On each trial, there were four potential e-mailers, one of whom was elected at random by the experimenter. One minute before a prearranged time at which the e-mail was to be sent, the participant guessed who would send it. 50 participants (29 women and 21 men) were recruited through an employment web site. Of 552 trials, 235 (43%) guesses were hits, significantly above the chance expectation of 25%. Further tests with 5 participants (4 women, 1 man, ages 16 to 29) were videotaped continuously. On the filmed trials, the 64 hits of 137 (47%) were significantly above
chance.

(Major Nod to Kevin L)

What could possibly go wrong with this brilliant plan?

Chapel Hill woman arrested.

For growing marijuana.

On. her. FRONT. PORCH.

"It's a brilliant plan. They'll never catch me, see? It's hiding in plain sight, see? Have you ever heard of anyone growing MJ on the front porch?"

I'm no fan of this particularly dumb law, but the police are in fact obliged to enforce it. At least go with the BACK porch, I think.

Fighting Fire with NOT Fire

Press the "off" button, ma'am! Solved the problem.

(Nod to MDW, who burns in his own way)

Mr. Calderon, tear down that wall!!

Smart Grid

Lynne K has some links on "smart grids."

Why Do I Love Columnist Barry Saunders?

Why do I love Barry Saunders? Here's why: He writes stuff like this.

There are two places you don't want to be if you value your safety.

One is laid up in a trailer with Sweet Thang watching "Green Acres" reruns when a tornado strikes.

The other is standing between the Rev. Jesse Jackson and a hot microphone when a black celebrity dies.

Just think of a famous black person who has died within the past 30 years. Now try to picture Jesse not at the funeral.

You can bet your last copy of "Thriller" that when Michael Jackson is laid to rest today, Jesse will be there.

The reverend has become a latter-day Zelig, the Woody Allen character who turned up everywhere throughout history. The tragic part is that like Zelig, too often he's just part of the backdrop.

You may agree with Barry, or not. But you know what he thinks. 'Cause he tells you.

Sacrificing to the Earth Goddess: Political Environmentalism HARMS the Environment

An argument I have over here in Germany nearly every day: Environmentalism HURTS the environment. Recycling, the car buy-back program....almost everything we do to try show our support for the environment, HURTS the environment.

And the only counterargument I usually get is, "But the government wouldn't do this unless there is a good reason!" A variant, in other words, of "I was just following orders!"

Look, I admit that the U.S. has had some problems lately, blindly following our leaders into an unjust war, the Patriot Act, and the insane war on drugs. But...Germany? Are you kidding me? I would have thought the whole early-to-mid century experience would have made citizens skeptical of the claims of government.

It has had the opposite effect. Germans simply assume that anything the government tells them to do must be (1) good for the individual, (2) good for the society, and (3) good for the environment. No need to check, no evidence counts, it is simple and abject faith that the government is always right. (Karl Marx famously said that if Germans were going to stage a protest to shut down a train station, they would buy a train ticket first.)

Then, when we come to an obvious clusterf**k, like the "Abwrackprämie" program, they say, "Ah, we need to have some reforms, and spend more money. Then this program will work. It is a good idea, it just hasn't been implemented correctly."

Um...no. It is a BAD idea, and spending more money on it will only make it worse. Here is a really insightful article on the "buy back," which has been a disaster in nearly every way. It is expensive, it has not helped the German auto companies, and it is BAD. FOR. THE. ENVIRONMENT.

Government is dominated by organized interest groups, out for profit. That's it, that's all you need to know. Everything else is just eyewash. The buy back program is a payoff to the car companies, and labor groups. It has nothing to do with the environment, except when it comes to selling the program to you saps who pay the bills.

To their credit, real German environmentalists, who actually DO care about the environnment, have come to this realization also. It makes no economic sense to scrap the cars, when they have lots of useful life left (first reuse, THEN recycle, right?). The problem is that if the cars are not scrapped, then they continue to pollute, in other countries where they will probably last for another 200,000k kilometers.

Jürgen Resch, who heads a German environmental group called Deutsche Umwelthilfe, said he expected "hundreds of thousands" of scrapping-bonus cars to be exported. "They will go on damaging the environment with emissions," he said, and wind up disassembled in countries where the scrapping standards are "far lower than ours."

Don't reform, folks. Abolish. Stop the madness.

Now the U.S. has a similar, perhaps even more ambitious, program. Not surprisingly, the German program has had some....

"... unintended consequences. First, the obvious car to buy, when an owner turns in a clunker, is small and cheap. That means sales of Hyundais, Dacias, Skodas and European-model Fords have been better stimulated by the scrapping bonus in Germany than sales of Mercedes sedans or BMWs. By the end of March, only about 24 percent of the bonus money had gone toward German-made vehicles — above all Opels and VWs. In May the German share had risen to 40 percent, according to a report by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (the Verband der Automobilindustrie).

The other problem, though, is regulating what happens to old cars. These schemes are no good for the environment if the clunkers don't get junked. A newsmagazine called Monitor, a sort of German 60 Minutes, examined the fate last February of a decent but down-at-the-heels 1994 Mercedes turned in for the scrapping bonus. The avenues for a junk dealer to re-sell a car that wasn't, in fact, junk, were numerous and tempting.

"It's an invitation to fraud," said Michael Wacker, a burly auto-parts dealer who pointed to a halfway decent VW resting on a hydraulic lift in his yard. "That's only got 62,000 miles on it. Plenty of people would like to drive something like that."

The market for slightly used, slightly gas-guzzling cars in Poland and the Czech Republic, not to mention Africa or Russia, is a lucrative reason for some junk dealers not to scrap still-drivable cars. The Monitor journalists had no trouble finding people to export their Mercedes from Germany in spite of documents claiming it should have been scrapped locally; and of course it's just as easy to pollute the climate from Russia or Africa as from Germany or the United States." (Source)

I have to admit, I am pretty excited about the US program. Here is the list of cars owned at Haus Mungowitz (yes, we have six cars. Ask NeanderBill):

1. 1999 Dodge Grand Caravan (170k miles) (18 mpg)
2. 1995 Ford Mustang (185k miles) (16 mpg)
3. 2001 Lincoln Town Car (105k miles) (22 mpg)
4. 2006 Ford F-150 full size pickup truck (40k miles) (15 mpg)
5. 2001 Ford E-150 conversion van (80k miles) (12 mpg)
6. 2005 Toyota Corolla (48k miles) (35 mpg)

The sum of the values of 1, 2, and 3 is about $1,000, maybe. But I am happy to do my public duty, and sell them three or four times their value to Barack Obama, as long as he pays me personally. My scruples would prevent me taking actual TAX dollars, of course. Of course, now that I know that it is my public DUTY to take the tax money, for the good of the environment...I'll have to think about it.

The American Dream: Caused by Tea? Migration? Education?

Tea - midwife and nurse to capitalism

A. Kemasang, Race & Class, July 2009, Pages 69-83

Abstract: Tea is and has for long been so ubiquitous a part of daily life, in the UK
particularly, that its true significance remains almost invisible. Yet, as this article shows, it has nonetheless been of unprecedented importance in the historical, social and economic development of Britain, from the eighteenth century onwards, and not only as a major plantation-grown commodity of colonial trade. Indeed, its knock-on health benefits, as a counter to alcoholic alternatives and insanitary water supplies, were of primary importance to the growth and maintenance of the early industrial working class - and hence to the very development of Britain's early industrial and colonial supremacy.

--------------------------

The American Century? Migration and the Voluntary Social Contract

Jonathon Moses, Politics & Society, forthcoming

Abstract: This piece argues that free migration was a central if implicit part of the
liberal social contract and that America's founders were both aware of this and exploited it to legitimate their new state. The piece begins by describing this uniquely American contribution to liberal political thought. It then juxtaposes this contribution against the nature of our own international order, to show just how foreign the American Century has become. The piece closes with a short depiction of what an American Century would look like today - were it true to this early ideal - and comments on its feasibility.

--------------------------

Our Forgotten Founders: Reconstruction, Public Education, and Constitutional
Heroism

Tom Donnelly Yale Working Paper, March 2009

Abstract: In this Article, I will consider a question that has been largely ignored by legal scholars: What role has public education played in constructing (or reinforcing) a constitutional culture that celebrates our Founding Fathers, but gives short shrift to their Reconstruction counterparts? To that end, I will look at the constitutional stories we tell our schoolchildren about the Founding generation and their Reconstruction counterparts. In particular, I will focus on the construction of constitutional heroes within these two key periods. First, I will use the Founding narrative as my baseline. From there, I will compare that account to our textbooks' treatment of Reconstruction. In the end, today's high school textbooks tend to praise the Founding generation and canonize certain key Founding Fathers, while, at the same time, largely ignoring Reconstruction's key players and
underemphasizing the constitutional revolution our Forgotten Founders envisioned (and began to wage). Our Reconstruction Founders deserve a more prominent place in the public's consciousness - and in the constitutional stories we tell our schoolchildren. If today's schools teach our children to revere the Founding generation by emphasizing their achievements and largely ignoring their shortcomings, our schools should (at the very least) stress the ambition of our Reconstruction Founders - even if they did not fully succeed in their efforts - and connect their incompletely - realized vision to the expansion of individual freedom and equality in the twentieth century.

Micos, Macacos, & Muriqui

Spending a couple days at the RPPN Feliciano Miguel Abdala, near the town of Caratinga, in the state of Minas Gerais was one of the most fun experiences of my life. It was just Mrs. Angus and me in the reserve (there was also a research team headed by Prof. Karen Strier from the Univ. of Wisconsin, but we only saw them briefly).

The Muriqui (which is an indian word meaning "happy men of the forest") are endangered but their population in the reserve is steadily growing.

We also saw some capuchin and howler monkeys!

Here is a slideshow:

Ryan Smith to LA Kings

Okay, so a word about frequent commenter "Martin."

Martin was assigned to help me give a major university-wide talk. It had been pretty widely advertised, all around the...well...university. We expected a decent crowd (meaning, since I was the speaker, more than about three, which is the number that SHOULD come out to hear me).

Anyway, Martin has the key to the cabinet, and we open it up. It had to look like two Neandertals trying to figure out a VCR. "Why flash 12! 12! 12!? And what is 12, anyway?" "HUNH. Me not know."

We poked and pushed buttons, and I went and got a VGA cable from my office. (For some reason, you have to bring your own VGA cable, to connect a laptop. Strange, since everything else is provided.) I pushed the "Aus" button, on the theory that...well, I didn't have a theory. Of course, that turned the beamer off, and we had to wait to recycle it.

Never did get the thing to connect. Martin went and got the hausmeister, who was not in. Martin walked back and forth 20 times, reporting back, while I pressed buttons and grimaced. On the 12th trip, Martin reported that the hausmeister was in fact in his office, but on the phone. On the 20th trip, the hausmeister accompanied Martin back. The HM opened the door, and pressed the big, master "ein" button. And then he said something in German. I assume it was something on the order of, "Lots of electronic equipment works better if you turn it on! Boy, are you guys dumb!"

And it did. Work better. When we turned it on. I blame Martin for this.

Anyway, it all worked, and we had an hour before the talk, which was to start at 6. Except that 6 means 6:15, in bizarro world Germany academics. (As I have written before). So, as I left, I said, "See you at 5:45, Martin!" And he said, "See you at 6:15!"

And both of us thought, "Wait, he can't have that right. I must have misheard him."

I got back at 5:45. And there is no one in the building, anywhere. I start to freak out (I do have a time fetish, and I hate, hate, HATE to be late.) A few people show up at 6:05, and one of them, mirabile dictu, has a KEY. The freakin' key that I need to open the cabinet, and set up the projector (and turn on the "Ein" key, by the way).

We barely get set up in time.

Martin strolls in, at 6:14. Which would have been fine, except that he HAD THE KEY. If someone else had not had a key, my head might have exploded by this time.

So...when Martin comments that Ryan Smith was traded to the LA Kings, I am trying to be happy. Martin, inexplicably, is a big LA Kings fan. That's like being a Kansas City Royals fan in baseball, except that the Royals were once good. (Interesting, btw, that there was some bad blood between Smyth and the Kings, not so long ago. These things do blow over, once he's a teammate, but still...)

Anyway, props to Ryan Smyth, and to Martin. And next time I want to get my OWN key.

Sports Shorts

1. Roger Federer defeats Andy Roddick at Wimbledon to claim his 15th Grand Slam title. Tomorrow's news flash: sugar is sweet, sun rises in the east. You may want to watch this 2007interview, which is still as hilarious as any post-match interview you will see. Whatever else, Andy does a good job of telling the truth.

2. Steve McNair found dead in condo. Ick.

Happy Anniversary to the LMM and to Me!

23 years and one day ago, I wasn't married. And today my older son is a college sophomore, living in an apartment in Chapel Hill. And the younger younger Munger is signing up for senior pictures. Because he is a high school senior.

23 years ago today we were going to the second wedding reception at the Elks Club, in Westerly, RI. The wedding had been at 9 am, and I hadn't slept at all the night before. Then we drove to a bad hotel outside of Boston, where we spent our wedding night. My friends had loaded every part of Donna's suitcase, including her pill bottles, with rice. Took years to live down the rice thing, and to get all the rice out of our luggage and pockets of clothing. Donna was so mad she stayed in the bathroom of the hotel for two hours and cried. Nice wedding night. "Honey? Sweetie? Are you okay?" "NO! I hate you and your friends! Don't you DARE touch me."

Next morning, before dawn, we flew to Bermuda, for our honeymoon.

My wife is a better person than I am in every way, except one: I married better than she did!

Happy anniversary, dear....

You Are So Booty-Call, to Me

The "Booty Call": A Compromise Between Men's and Women's Ideal Mating Strategies

Peter Jonason, Norman Li & Margaret Cason Journal of Sex Research, forthcoming

Abstract: Traditionally, research on romantic and sexual relationships has focused on
1-night stands and monogamous pairs. However, as the result of men and women pursuing their ideal relationship types, various compromise relationships may emerge. One such compromise is explored here: the "booty call." The results of an act-nomination and frequency study of college students provided an initial definition and exploration of this type of relationship. Booty calls tend to utilize various communication mediums to facilitate sexual contact among friends who, for men, may represent low-investment, attractive sexual partners and, for women, may represent attractive test-mates. The relationship is discussed as a compromise between men's and women's ideal mating strategies that allows men greater sexual access and women an ongoing opportunity to evaluate potential long-term mates.

(Nod to Kevin L)

Helping, Tolerating, Affect

Two very interesting studies. The stereotype is that senior women in academics can sometimes be very hard on junior women, and the stereotype is also that girls in middle school can be very hard on each other. I wonder about how the manipulations were actually managed in the Psych Science paper.

And, the other study resonates with my experience here in Franconia, in Germany. It is a very embedded culture, compared with the rest of Germany. You don't talk to people unless you have been introduced. And you would never impose on them unless you know them well. But on the other hand friendship is perhaps more important, and less superficial, here in Franconia than it is in the U.S. Not better or worse, just different.

Males' Greater Tolerance of Same-Sex Peers

Joyce Benenson, Henry Markovits, Caitlin Fitzgerald, Diana Geoffroy, Julianne Flemming, Sonya Kahlenberg & Richard Wrangham Psychological Science, February 2009, Pages 184-190

Abstract: Three studies were conducted to examine the often-cited conclusion that human females are more sociable than males. Using perceptions of roommates, roommate changes at three collegiate institutions, and an experimental manipulation of friendship beliefs, the studies demonstrated unequivocally that males exhibit a higher threshold of tolerance for genetically unrelated same-sex individuals than females do. Tolerance was defined as acceptance of the stresses and strains within relationships. Results are discussed in terms of potential underlying mechanisms and ultimate explanations.
------------------------

Helping Strangers Is Lower in Embedded Cultures

Ariel Knafo, Shalom Schwartz & Robert Levine Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, forthcoming

Abstract: The embeddedness cultural value orientation regards the extended in-group, not the individual, as the key social unit. Embedded cultures focus on the welfare of the in-group, limiting concern for outsiders’ well-being. Therefore, the authors hypothesized that people in high-embeddedness cultures are less helpful to strangers in need. They related countries’ embeddedness scores to rates of helping strangers in three field experiments across 21 countries. Large cross-national differences in helping strangers related strongly and negatively to cultural embeddedness in subsets of wealthy and developing countries. This suggests that prevailing cultural values affect the way people relate to needy others outside their in-group.
(Nod to Kevin L)

Mr. Pujols: Walk Him. Just Walk Him.

I am a St. Louis Cardinals fan. And so, my favorite player in all of baseball is Mr. Pujols.

But I have a question, a serious question, though it will sound crazy.

Here's the situation, last night in Cincy, playing the Reds. Cards down 3-0, looking dispirited. Men on first and second, two outs. Idiot Reds reliever walks Hoffpauir, bringing up the only real threat in the Cards lineup....Mr. Pujols.

The Reds bring in a righty reliever, to do the righty v. righty thing. This reliever is a wily veteran, David Weathers, with 18 years of major league experience. But (and I like big buts, you know I cannot lie), Mr. Pujols is 9 for 18 lifetime against David Weathers. Just wears him out like an old sock.

To complete the setting, remember that following Mr. Pujols in the lineup is Ryan Ludwick and then Rick Ankiel. Both very good defensive outfielders. But neither of them bats over the "Munger line" (my current weight is 240 lbs; Ludwick is batting .235 and Ankiel is batting .230).

Summary: 8th inning, two outs, you are ahead 3-0, the next two guys in the line-up are in deep slumps. Your bullpen is the best in the major leagues (Cincy has an amazing bullpen).

Do you pitch to Mr. Pujols? It is radical to suggest, but I say: No, you do not. Walk him. Yes, I know the bases are loaded. But. Walk. Him. It's still just 3-1 and neither of the next two batters are likely to do anything except fly out.

They pitch to Mr. Pujols.

Mr. Pujol hits a long homer, a grand slam, the big salami with extra cheese and pickles. Even Mike Shannon, who has been drunk since 1973, notes in this video that "maybe you think about walking him."

Next inning, in the 9th, he* hits an RBI double, winning the game for the Cards. Look, the rest of the Cards, not counting pitchers even, have a team batting average of .240. Albert is batting .340, with 82 RBI, 31 homers, and a slugging average of nearly .750.

Why don't they walk him? Even with the bases loaded? Baseball has this silly macho thing, instead of just trying to win.

Anyway, I do want to thank Cincinnati, and manager Dusty Baker, for giving me such a fine thrill this morning when I watched the video of Mr. Pujols single-handedly beating them. But I don't understand WHY they did that.

Every team says, "Don't let Pujols beat us." And then Pujols beats them. Because they pitch to him.

Reminds me of the old Groucho Marx joke. Guy comes running in to Groucho's office (Groucho is pretending to be a doctor). "Doctor, doctor, it hurts when I do this." Groucho: "Don't do that." Well, it hurts when they pitch to Mr. Pujols. Don't do that.

*Pujols, not Shannon