Angus solves the world's problems, part I

The constitution of Honduras has a bullet proof no reelection clause.  Its president, Mel Zelaya, wanted to be re-elected, so he commenced trying to get around the obstacle. Honduras' Congress and Judiciary rejected Mel's moves, but Mel just kept on keeping on, and in the end, the Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant. 

The military, in executing that warrant, also decided to deport Mel, which I don't think was in the warrant, is itself unconstitutional, and basically turned the situation into a military coup (or at least a situation with severe coup-like symptoms).

Now, the question is, and has been for several weeks now, what to do? 

To me, this is easy. 

1. Mel agrees to drop any efforts to change the constitution / run a referendum and in return comes back to T-town and finishes out his term as president (the next election is November 29th for Pete's sake).

2. The military personnel who deported him are charged and tried for a mediumly serious crime but Mel pardons them if they are convicted.

3. If Mel reneges on any of this, the military can do what it do and the international community will stfu.

Thats it. Pan comido.

The Culture that is Academia

All the way from Naples FL comes this heartwarming tale:

"The same FGCU associate professor suspended for touching a mannequin in a sexual manner has been fired for depositing university checks into his personal bank account.

David Lounsbury, 56, was terminated July 14 after an internal audit found he collected cash and checks worth $15,210.

Lounsbury is accused of asking students to issue checks directly to him, or pay in cash, instead of FGCU for an interview and interrogation course.

Auditors handed their investigation to the university police department, although no criminal charges have been filed.

The department did not return calls about the investigation.

On Thursday, FGCU assigned Lounsbury’s fall courses to other faculty members while stripping his biography from the criminal justice department’s Web site.

In documents obtained by The News-Press through a public-records request, Lounsbury argues he simply was expediting the reimbursement process for supplies he purchased for the criminal justice department, along with his share of fees due to come his way for teaching the class.

“The only one out any money, a small amount, is me, not the university,” Lounsbury wrote in a July 6 memo, dismissing the allegation as a “technical violation.”

Lounsbury, a former Army criminal investigator, initially was suspended with pay Nov. 4 after students reported he touched anatomically correct mannequins in a sexual manner during their death investigation class. FGCU changed his suspension to unpaid leave Jan. 26, but Toll [the provost] allowed him to return this August, instead of firing him, so Lounsbury could “contribute in a supportive way to our learning community.”

WOW!! Suddenly I feel a lot better about myself. I have made students cry, made other faculty members yell at me after getting under their skin in a seminar or faculty meeting, posted insensitive remarks on a political science listserver, and take up to 3 months to write a referee report, but hey, I am practically in line for sainthood if this is any guide to what the rest of my colleagues are up to.

ummmm, gravy!!

I have been trying and trying to wrap my head around PK's blog post on why markets can't do health care. Tyler has already discussed some aspects of this in his very gentlemanly way, but I want to focus on something different. In the middle of the post, PK says:

"insurers try to deny as many claims as possible, and that they try to avoid covering people who are actually likely to need care. Both of these strategies use a lot of resources, which is why private insurance has much higher administrative costs than single-payer systems. And since there’s a widespread sense that our fellow citizens should get the care we need — not everyone agrees, but most do — this means that private insurance basically spends a lot of money on socially destructive activities."

I really don't understand parts of this. Look beyond the emotionally loaded "deny claims" and "avoid coverage" phrases. How does denying coverage to high risk people use a lot of resources? Does the case for the government plan really turn on eliminating the insurance physical?

I also can't understand what "our fellow citizens should get the care we need" means. Should the "we" simply be a "they" or is it that everyone should get the same care I want for myself?

Then there is the claim that "private insurance basically spends a lot of money on socially destructive activities".

I assume this last bit refers to reviewing claims for their validity and screening applicants. Would a different approach not review claims for their validity? And if applicants are not screened and price discrimination based on risk is not employed, doesn't that simply mean that the low risk people will have to subsidize the high risk people?

Where is the free lunch here?

Are we really considering providing the same policy to everyone at the same "cost"? So a 45 year old overweight male smoker, drinker and couch potato "pays" the same price as a 30 year old female non-smoker, non-drinker yoga instructor? If so, then the scheme is just plain "stupid" (if I can be permitted an Obama quote here).

If rich people really have lower risks than poor people and the insurance is being funded through progressive taxation, then it's kind of a double whammy for them.

But maybe that's just gravy?

Jackie Robinson? Really?

This is a truly brilliant little piece, from the Daily Show.

It starts out lame enough, just give some dope a chance to make a fool of himself. He actually tries to trade mark the phrase "pull my finger." If anyone owns this phrase, it is Mr. Perko, my Scoutmaster from Windermere, Florida. It was certainly his favorite joke.

But....then.....the interview goes over into something else, pure comedy gold. The Jackie Robinson comparison, and the interviewer's response. I had to go outside for a few minutes.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
iFeud
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Joke of the Day

(Nod to Anonyman, who will let ANYONE pull his finger)

The Culture that is Germany VII

Reuters Berlin, how I love you. You give me what I need:

"German tourists can now reserve their poolside recliners before they have even left home.

The German arm of Thomas Cook, Europe's second largest travel company, has been deluged with inquiries since announcing that holidaymakers at nine hotels in Turkey, Egypt and the Canary Islands can book recliners in advance for a fee.

Germans are famous around Europe for rising early to reserve recliners near the pool with their towels, and then going back to bed or eating a lengthy breakfast.

This often annoys tourists from other nations, but they will be unable to take advantage of the new service -- it is valid only for tourists booking their trips from Germany, Mathias Brandes, head of communications at Thomas Cook in Germany, said."

To quote Mungowitz's students: "ooh, nein!"

I guess I lead a sheltered life but, who in the world goes on holiday to camp out at the hotel pool all day? That said, given that one really wanted to camp out at the hotel pool, who in the world would let an obviously unattended towel deter them from doing so? People, just take Franz's towel, put it in the towel hamper, move "his" chair to a different area of the pool and enjoy the good life!!

Pwnd!

1. Hillary Clinton, by North Korea: “We cannot but regard Mrs. Clinton as a funny lady, as she likes to utter such rhetoric, unaware of the elementary etiquette in the international community,” the North Korean statement said. “Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping.”

2. Lance Armstrong by Alberto Contador: First he smoked Lance in the mountains, then he dusted him in the individual time trial. Alberto has the tour locked up and Lance is struggling to get onto the podium. Alberto also has the great advantage that he could be doping like crazy but the Frenchies had Lance so much they'd never bust him for it.

3. The Tampa Bay Rays by Mark Buehrle: A perfect game!

4. President O by his party's congressional delegations: No health care bill vote before the recess. Don't you all think "recess" is a perfect term for Congressional breaks?

Party, and the Fußball Jersey

So, we finally had the "American BBQ" party, tuesday night. Weather was great, we cooked a ton of hot dogs and chicken, had potato salad, some really first rate salsa (thanks to der Geist!), and two big and quite tasty wassermelon. Oh, and we had 30 liters of Steinbachbrau in a big wooden keg, and a lot of bottles. Plenty to do. Party lasted until 1:15 am, and then I had to set my alarm for 5:00 am to come back and clean up, before the owners of the property saw all the cigarette butts and beer bottles. On the way home at 1:15 am, I realized that one does not know how much beer one has had until one tries to ride home in total darkness at 1:15 am. (I had torn off my bike generator somehow, trying to set it against the wheel).

The kids in my classes had put in (thanks, especially, to Tim G and Sebastian F) for an official German jersey. It is quite a nice jersey, and personalized, as you see.
I noticed the guys were giggling and punching each other, in that, "You tell him." "No, YOU tell him!" way that guys have.

Then, they told me: The number on the jersey has special significance. It is "09" in honor of the year I taught at Erlangen. But it is also what they imagined was the usual answer I got when *I* was in college, when I asked a girl to dance at a party. That is, she said, "OHHHH....nein."

What ever happened to respect for the professoriate?

(Credit to Robert U for the fotos)

Links

1. Best.Meal.Ever.

2. Happy days are here again?

3. Bears are better than beards!

4. When did Tyler become a behavioral economist?

What I've been reading

1. American Shaolin. I really enjoyed this book, as did Mrs. Angus. A first person account of a skinny Princeton religion major going to China and training with the Monks of Shaolin Temple. Funny and insightful.

2. 1491. Terrific book about revisionist history of the Americas pre - "contact". This is a must read if you've not yet done so. Dense but way good.

3. The Book of Dave. I have to admit that despite his many faults, I am in the tank for Will Self. Parts of this novel are excellent, and parts really bite the big one. All in all I'm glad I read it, but I can't say "drop everything and read this book" like I can about #s 1 and 2 (However I can say that about "The Quantity Theory of Insanity" and "My Idea of Fun" by Self).

Hurry up and wait

I have been avoiding posting on anything serious lately because I promised Mrs. A after seeing all the jaguars we did in Brazil that I would be in a good mood for 6 months!

One thing that I do find interesting is the clash between the supposed urgency of political action and the implementation of policy that is contained inside the action plan.

Consider first the stimulus bill. President O insisted in fast action using semi-apocalyptic rhetoric to help insure very quick passage. Later, as unemployment rose faster than original no-stimulus projections, and people were either labeling the bill a failure or calling for a second stimulus, President O pointed out, correctly, that it was way too early to judge the bill, because the main chunk of spending wouldn't hit the economy until the second quarter of 2010!

Does anyone beside me think that is funny? By then, according to most forecasts, we should be into a recovery. Hey, maybe that's why fiscal policy is often pro-cyclical? So it will seem like it's working?

It seems like the same course is being taken with health care reform. The cause is urgent, action must be taken now, but I am pretty sure that many of the proposals in the bills under consideration do not take effect until years after passage!

It will be interesting to see if "hurry up and wait" works again.

Robert DeNiro's waiting

One great new trend this summer is the celebrity life coach.

1. Consider how Denzel Washington has apparently convinced Chad Johnson to turn his frown upside down!

2. I believe supermodel Joanna Krupa was so effective at motivating TO that the Buffalo Bills are thinking of hiring her as their receivers coach .

Trade That Americans Want

Wow. This guy is either a crazed, protectionist demagogue,or an idiot.

And I don't think he is an idiot.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The United States wants a robust trade policy that is in the interest of its people and the "Buy American" campaign will not violate World Trade Organization commitments, Trade Representative Ron Kirk said on Wednesday.

Kirk was speaking after Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries agreed in a two-day trade discussion in Singapore to shun protectionist measures, saying it would be a setback for the global economy.

"We would like a robust trade policy that is one that American people believe operates fairly in their favor as opposed to just the interest of one industry...as well as protecting the rights of workers that helps us to implement the president's number one objective that is to put Americans back to work," he said.

ATSRTWT

Hardees Ad: New Breakfast Food

Why, as a child, I dreaded Sundays

The Culture that is Germany VI

I am having a hard time believing that this one is real:

"German police said on Monday that they have arrested one of two British men suspected of selling bags that they said held laptops and mobile phones but which in reality contained potatoes.

Authorities believe the pair tricked around 40 people in two German states driving around in a car with British number plates, convincing them to hand over cash for the electronic hardware but giving them spuds instead.

A shopowner in Hildesheim near Hanover telephoned the police on Friday after becoming suspicious -- he had read in the paper about swindlers in a right-hand-drive car -- but the two men left the scene.

Later the same day in the same town the two men were attempting to sell laptops to a group of people that included, unfortunately for them, someone who had come across them before and who then also rang the police.

"The police were quickly at the scene but the two suspected con men fled ... They sped down Kaiserstrasse in their metallic green Opel, going through several red lights and endangering other road users," police said.

The 32-year-old man was arrested after the chase ended but the second man, aged 20 and whom the police have since identified, was able to flee on foot despite being trailed by a police helicopter. They believe he may be armed."

All this seems impossible but the article says "around 40 people" were tricked. Which leads me to wonder: Do laptops in Germany usually come in bags? Are they ovoid and lumpy? Are German mobile phones 4-5 inches thick and do they smell like dirt? Who buys a "bag of mobile phones" without looking in the bag first? What about a reverse scam, where you sell people "bags of potatoes" that actually only contain mobile phones?

"phone call for Dr. Pangloss!"

Yeah, there's an app for that!

Charges Dropped on "Friend"

The story continues to develop. The one about the prison therapist and the guy that she shot, I mean. Her name is Rider; his is Friend.

Rider shot Friend near his heart on April 21 after an altercation in front of his grandmother's house. She has not been charged.

On May 1, she asked for and received a domestic violence protective order. Friend said the couple soon reunited, however. He was then arrested in June for violating the order.

Carrie Randa, the assistant district attorney handling the case, said Rider had admitted to prosecutors that she invited Friend to live with her, even though she had earlier requested the restraining order.

"He had been staying with her for quite a few weeks before the charges came up," Randa said. "It's a difficult sell to a judge when the victim invites the person into the home to live there and to stay with them."

Yes, it is difficult. Psychiatrist, heal thyself. As I said, my sympathies are with her, but still. The guy may be a manipulative, abusive snake. If so, then stop asking him to come live with you.

On the other hand, she shot him in the back. I think he needs to get away from her.

The Books of Summer

So, I do get some chances to read. Quite a few, in fact. The last five books I have read are kind of a mixed group, no theme I can think of. In alpha order of last name of author:

Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, A MONETARY HISTORY OF THE US, 1867-1960, Princeton. I picked it up just to glance through it again, having read it years ago. But I found myself reading it closely. The history of the Great Depression, as opposed to the crap mythology of the Great Roosevelt pandered by Krugman, et al., is worth looking at again.

Hartmut Kliemt, PHILOSOPHY AND ECONOMICS I: METHODS AND MODELS, Oldenbourg-Verlag. Not a light summer read, but a very fine introduction to a lot of difficult literature. Dr. Kliemt is one of my favorite people, and this is quite a useful book. It is a nice companion, I think to Jerry Gaus's book from two years ago, ON PHILOSOPHY, POLITICS, AND ECONOMICS.

Paul Levinson, THE PLOT TO SAVE SOCRATES, Tor Books. A nice premise, one that I have actually always wondered about (and given to undergrads as an assignment): What if Crito had not been a fat drunk bozo? Wasn't there a way to save Socrates? Now, this book is about time travel, and raises some interesting questions about same. But if you are a fan of the classics, this might be a summer sci-fi bon-bon for you. Certainly not a timeless classic, however.

Simon Majumdar, EAT MY GLOBE, Free Press. "One Year to Go Everywhere and Eat Everything." This guy has exactly my sense of humor, and a real desire to eat strange things. And his stories of world travel in search of strange things to eat make mine seem tame and easy. Terrific book.

Mary Roach. BONK: THE CURIOUS COUPLING OF SCIENCE AND SEX. Norton. Mary is a great author, combining sextensive serious research* and the sense of humor of a 17 year old boy in a locker room. The details here are just the best. Consider this footnote, from p. 60:
"In 1998, a woman from Saline, Michigan received a patent for a Decorative Penile Wrap intended to "heighten sexual arousal of a male and female prior to intercourse." The patent includes three pages of drawings, including a penis wearing a ghost outfit, another in the robes of the Grim Reaper, and one dressed up to look like a snowman. I tried to call the examiner listed on the patent, Michael A. Brown, but he has left the US Patent and Trade Office. And who can blame him?"
For days after reading this, I could not stop myself from humming: "Penis, the Snowman, was a jolly happy soul. Thumpety thump thump. Thumpety thump thump." To be fair, there is also a lot of quite serious review of the history and meaning of sex research in the book, some of it remarkable, and some of it bordering on clearly insane.

LAGNIAPPE: I am about 1/3 of the way through rereading Paul Johnson's HISTORY OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. Opinionated, and pretty tough on a lot of established dear-to-the-left conceptions of the Founding. But full of terrific observations, large and small. One of the great things about being old is that you can reread a book, and it's like it is brand new. 'Cause I do not remember a lot of this, at all.

*This was actually a real typo. I just left it, because it amused me.

It just gets better....my people in NC

So, the story gets betters. I mentioned before that the prison psychiatrist, after taking an inmate as a lover, ended up shooting him.

Some new interesting facts:

1. She shot him in the BACK, as he was getting out of the car, at his grandmother's house. Yeah, they were arguing, and he may have threatened her. But she shot him in the back.

2. She had a restraining order against the guy. Fair enough. Except that she decided she liked him, and drove him to the beach for a little swimming and recreation. Ladies, a hint: Restraining orders and little romantic trips to the beach, in the same week, constitute sending mixed signals. We men are just not that bright. So we can't figure out just what it is that you are telling us.

My sympathies pretty much always reside with the woman, in these cases. But how crazy must this woman be?

Wien

Two thumbs up, way up, for Wien.

We went on a six hour bike ride yesterday, around the city, on rented bikes. Now, 1 hour and 45 minutes of that time was spent at an outdoor "beach" beside the Danube canal, having a nicely chilled Gruner Weltliner, and soaking up the sun in a nice breeze. So it was not THAT arduous. And since you can turn in the rental bikes at one of many drop-off sites, and then get new bikes when you are ready to continue, that's all good. Very, very good.

On Saturday, it was a special day. It has been very warm here in Austria. So, I arrive, and the temperature drops from 28 to 14 for the high, with 40+ km/hr winds. We hid out in museums. Fortunately, Vienna has one or two museums to choose from, and so this was not unpleasant.

At breakfast yesterday, on Sunday, GameBill and I met the real life Bruno. Or not Bruno, actually. This young man was extremely fit, extremely well dressed (he was a waiter), and had the most beautifully applied eye and face make-up I have ever seen. You know how some women wear too much make-up, and it looks bad? Well, this fellow had on too much make-up, I suppose, except that it was so beautifully applied that it looked really good. I found him very attractive, and I'm not gay. So, Bruno, eat your heart out: The real thing is alive and well in Vienna, and hotter than you are.

I should note, in terms of contrast, that GameBill and I had just come from a mass at the St. Stephans Dom, where a large choir had performed Mozart's Missa Brevis (I think it was Missa Brevis in G, but will have to look it up). It's short, and rather pretty. To hear it as part of a mass at the Dom....a fine way to start your Sonntag.

The Culture that is Germany V

I was thinking about callin this post either, "I'm in love with you honey, but not that much!", or "Susanne Klatten is my ATM!". Here is the story from Reuters, and it's a good 'un.

"German police arrested three men suspected of attempting to blackmail Susanne Klatten, the country's wealthiest woman, by claiming they had a secret video of her affair with a Swiss gigolo, prosecutors said Friday.

Munich state prosecutor Thomas Steinkraus-Koch said the trio had been arrested last week by police in the northern town of Duisburg on suspicion of trying to extort 800,000 euros and a BMW luxury SUV from Klatten, heiress to the BMW empire.

"They sent a letter to her threatening to give the sex video they claimed to have to Italian media if she did not give them 800,000 euros and a BMW," Steinkraus-Koch told Reuters, adding that Klatten immediately forwarded the letter to police.

"We assume the story about the video was contrived. At least we have found no evidence of any such video after searching their apartments and computers. There is nothing to suggest they ever were in possession of such a sex video."

The three men aged 33 to 46 -- including one German and one Serb -- were contacted by a police officer posing as an acquaintance of Klatten, he said. They set up a contact phone number for the blackmailers and that led to their arrest.

Klatten, a member of the Quandt family -- the leading shareholders in carmaker BMW -- went public last year with the story of how her Swiss lover secretly shot intimate footage and later demanded tens of million of euros not to reveal it.

Helg Sgarbi, a former Swiss investment banker, was sentenced to six years in jail by a Munich court after he admitted he had seduced Klatten and three other wealthy women. He persuaded them to pay him nearly 10 million euros under various false pretexts.

Sgarbi, a Swiss army lieutenant, won over Klatten, a 46-year-old married mother of three, at a health centre.

She later handed him a cardboard box containing 7 million euros in 500 euro notes, believing he had paralysed a child in a traffic accident in America and was in need of the money.

Klatten ended the relationship after Sgarbi, 44, demanded more money. He responded by threatening to send photos and tapes of their hotel-room rendezvous to colleagues, family and media unless she gave him 49 million euros. She then went to police.

Klatten's wealth is estimated by Forbes magazine at almost $10 billion (6.1 billion pounds), making her the 68th richest person in the world.

The Quandt dynasty had close ties to the Nazi party and built its fortune supplying German army and railway worker uniforms. The first wife of Klatten's grandfather went on to marry Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels.

In March, a truck driver from Bochum tried to blackmail Klatten with a similar claim. He was seeking 75,000 euros and is now on trial in Munich for attempted blackmail."

So the actual sex tape dude ends up going to prison for extorting more money from Ms. Klatten and this inspires multiple other people to also try and extort money from her? I think they somehow took the wrong moral from the original story!

Does this oboe make me look fat?

“It’s annoying when people complain about the money,” the Vermont-based counselor Dr. Michele Hernandez, said. “I’m at the top of my field. Do people economize when they have a brain tumor and are looking for a neurosurgeon? If you want to go with someone cheaper, or chance it, don’t hire me.”

And what field is that you ask? Well it's college admissions counseling, for lack of a better term:

"Dr. Hernandez, a former Dartmouth admissions officer, says she counsels as many as 25 students in each high school grade each year. She also offers four-day “boot camps” every August in a Boston hotel, charging 40 incoming high school seniors as much as $14,000 each."

This is from an uproariously funny NYT article on the independent college counselor market, where people can pay "upwards of $40,000" for advice on how to get their kids into the college of their dreams.

There are three things I think are really funny here.

The first is that there is actually a market for this. College admissions involves filling out forms! These people are I guess life coaches (another occupation that astounds me by its existence) for 14 - 17 year olds, telling them exactly what to do so they will be able to write the proper magical things on the admissions forms.

The second thing funny thing to me is how bent out of shape people get about what college their kids go to. While it is true that certain colleges give one a leg up in the "real world", it is actually possible to go to almost any college and do well for oneself. I went to Cedarville College in rural Ohio, ended up at Washington University in St. Louis for grad school (by way of Miami of Ohio, my grandparents could never figure out what state I was actually living in) and have a career and life far beyond anything I'd imagined as a kid. And I am no big deal in any sense of the word.

Mungowitz went to Davidson in rural NC, then Wash U and is now Chair of Duke's polysci dept. John List went to Wisconsin Stevens-Point, got his PhD from the University of Wyoming, took his first job at Central Florida and became a full professor in Chicago's economics department within 10 years of getting his doctorate. Nathan Nunn went to Simon Fraser, then grad school at the University of Toronto, first job at the University of British Columbia and is now an assistant professor at Harvard!

If you raise your kids to think independently and love learning, where they go to college just isn't such a big deal.

The third funny thing to me is people who insist on being called "Doctor". In the opening quote it's always Dr. Hernandez. Angus' law of titles is "the more bogus the degree, the more people insist on being addressed by the title", so I assumed hers was either honorary or in education (which is kind of a distinction without a difference). Sure enough, I looked her up and she has a "doctorate in education from Nova Southeastern University". Sweet!!!!

What's in a name?

Bill Bonus here:

How I imagine heaven

The Culture that is Germany IV

From Reuters:

"German Police had to rescue a 20-year-old man from a train station suitcase locker after he shut himself in for fun and began to suffocate.

After a night out drinking with friends, squeezing into the locker had seemed like an amusing idea to the man, police in the southwestern city of Ludwigshafen said Friday.

But the laughter faded when he started to run out of oxygen and his companions couldn't open the locker. Police broke open the door and dragged the groggy man to safety."

I guess this just points out the fabulous quality of German public lockers: totally airtight!!

Paul Wolfowitz: right on the money, just like always

Try comparing his editorial in today's WSJ here with the facts on the ground today here.

Inductive Bias is Redundant

This exchange, on PSJR, caused me to shoot coffee out my nose.

Dork 1. Apologies to the quants if this is a naive question, but as someone just coming to quantitative methods I was wondering if there is anyone currently using machine learning algorithms to study political data?

Yes, I realize machine learning is going to be over my head by several decades, but I am excited about anything that promises to help manage inductive bias.

Dork 2. Define "inductive bias". How is it different from "bias"?

Comic Genius Quant Type 1. Define "inductive bias". How is it different from "inductive"?

Wien--Three Nights in the Lights

So...heading over to Wien, to visit with GameBill and enjoy the city. GameBill had suggested that I take the train (it's true you can get a ticket for 39 euro each way, if you get a ticket early. But that seems to mean "two years in advance.")

But Air Berlin has direct flights, Nuremberg -- Vienna, 90 euro, compared to 72 euro for the train. So, I broke my own rule (no planes while I'm in Europe, except going or coming) and got a plane ticket.

I am looking forward to it. Three nights, and no particular plans, except that GameBill and I have to work on our paper for APSA.

UPDATE: Looking at some touristy websites, I found the "Wine Tasting Bike Tour." Does anyone see a possible problem with that? As Lynyrd Skynyrd put it, "Oak tree, you are in my way." Still, tempting.

Oklahoma where the slurs come whistling out the Senator

Sorry for the commercial at the beginning but this is a good 'un!




Hat tip to Norman (who lives in Norman).

Confirm her

No one has come out of the Sotomayor hearing looking like anything but an idiot.

With the exception of Ms. Sotomayor, whom I like more and more, personally. I don't think we agree on much. But she is replacing that doofus David Souter, and I think she has a 25% higher IQ than he did, maybe more (she is surely a lot smarter than I am). And she is no more liberal than Souter, so no change in balance on the court. And she appears to feel obliged to give actual reasons, based on the law.

So, I say, confirm her.

This made me laugh.

But this time it's different??

Walking Through the Drive-Through at Naugles

All right, KPC fans, who is this fine fellow? He is a senior marketing manager at Avaya.

And he's married, I believe, to Risa P. Gorelick, at Ramapo College.

Finally, as the title suggests, this now-respectable gent is rather famous for insisting on walking through the drive-through line at Naugles, even on nights with heavy snow and wind. See, Naugles closed the main part of the building about 11 pm, but was open LATE at the drive-through. (And also early. It never closed). Just picture it: Snowing, dark, 2:45 am. Lots of cars in line. Car, car, car, guy standing "in line", car, car... Guy inside, running drive-through hears a voice order, thinks nothing of it. "Pull ahead please." Then, walking out of the night, dripping: the guy pictured above. (Except he had shoulder length curly hair then, and a big mustache.) No car, just a heavy coat. Pays for food, and strides into the blackness.

One of my favorite memories of Naugles: If you ordered the nachos, and a Dr. Pepper, the front person would yell back to the kitchen: "Macho Nacho, and a Doctor!" Here is (a picture of) an actual Naugles hat, worn by inmates: We made up a menu item, and tried to order it once, just to see what would happen: "Ort Egg on a Stick." The cashier did not see the humor in this request. (Maybe because she was wearing one of those hats, above). (To be fair, this was Angus's idea, through and through. I just giggled.)

Dick Naugle had two great ideas. One was the motto, which was printed on the napkins. I believe it went like this: "Dick Naugle says: Serve food fast. Keep place clean. Keep customer satisfied." We would sometimes debate if this was a badly failed attempt at a haiku. I still think it was.

The other idea was non-exclusive franchises. Another Naugles might open next door to yours. As was documented here, that turns out to be a bad idea, in terms of selling franchises.

Actually, Dick Naugle had one other idea: commercials many people found flagrantly racist. This is the only example I can find, and it's pretty tame.

Naugles was merged back with Del Taco in 1988. Naugles: RIP.

(A credit for the YouTube ad)

New Anti-Terrorist Weapon: Facebook. And IE 5.1. Oh, and PEANUT BUTTER. Check Your Closets

"[AUDIENCE QUESTION:] Can you please let the staff use an alternative web browser called Firefox? I just - (applause) - I just moved to the State Department from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and was surprised that State doesn't use this browser. It was approved for the entire intelligence community, so I don't understand why State can't use it. It's a much safer program. Thank you. (Applause.)

[SECRETARY CLINTON:] Well, apparently, there's a lot of support for this suggestion. (Laughter.) I don't know the answer. Pat, do you know the answer? (Laughter.)

[UNDER SECRETARY KENNEDY:] The answer is at the moment, it's an expense question.
We can --

[AUDIENCE MEMBER:] It's free. (Laughter.)"

[State Department town hall, July 10]

(Nod to Kevin L)

UPDATE: The rest of the conversation, reported in the UK....

"Nothing is free," Kennedy responded. "It’s a question of the resources to manage multiple systems. It is something we’re looking at...It has to be administered. The patches have to be loaded. It may seem small, but when you’re running a worldwide operation and trying to push, as the Secretary rightly said, out FOBs [for remote log-ins] and other devices, you’re caught in the terrible bind of triage of trying to get the most out that you can, but knowing you can’t do everything at once."

Clinton then told her staff to have a look through their closets. "The more money we can save on stuff that is not cutting edge, the more resources we’ll have to shift to do things that will give us more tools," she said.

"[That reminds] me of what I occasionally sometimes do, which I call shopping in my closet, which means opening doors and seeing what I actually already have, which I really suggest to everybody, because it’s quite enlightening. And so when you go to the store and you buy, let’s say, peanut butter and you don’t realize you’ve got two jars already at the back of the shelf – I mean, that sounds simplistic, but help us save money on stuff that we shouldn’t be wasting money on, and give us the chance to manage our resources to do more things like Firefox, okay?"

If the State Department buys less peanut butter, Clinton may even let them use Facebook. During a state department town hall meeting earlier this year, a bigwig at the US embassy in Mexico City told Clinton that the social networking site is a great way to prevent solipsistic stupid people from entering the country.

"Facebook, MySpace, and other web 2.0 social networking technologies will significantly enhance the Department’s diplomacy efforts and business goals," he said. "For example, an astute consular officer in Hermosillo recently used Facebook to determine a visa applicant’s ineligibility based on information contained on the applicant’s Facebook page, proving its value as an anti-fraud tool."

And Clinton seemed to like the idea. "We’ve got to figure out how we’re going to be smarter about using technology. So I think that’s a great example, the Facebook example. And you know, we might want to follow up on that example, checking out Facebook. For everybody who is applying for a visa, you just should know that the State Department is on the watch here for Facebook."

Interview on Health Care

Did an "interview" with old friend, student, and colleague Don Taylor. He posted it on his (relatively) new blog, FREEFORALL (that's a health care joke, get it, Free For All?). Anyway, here is the interview....

An excerpt:

Question 1. What is the biggest problem facing the U.S. health care system?

Sharply rising costs. Two ways to "solve" the costs problem: (a) give everyone insurance, so that they are insulated from cost increases. (b) reduce cost increases, and find ways to make basic health care cheaper.

(a) is the most talked about option, but it is a bad idea. Someone (the taxpayer) still pays for insurance, so we are not really protected from cost increases. The French economist, Frederic Bastiat, said that the state is the fiction that each of us should be supported by all of us. It may be that universal coverage for serious illness would protect people, but "free" health care is too expensive, unless we get a handle on costs.

Option (b) is much better, but harder, because medical lobbies and interest groups will fight it. The problem is that we do not teach, or reward, preventive action by citizens or basic primary care by physicians. NC has a big shortage in primary care, at every level.

Put it this way: I have auto insurance. But it does NOT pay for oil changes. If I don't do the oil changes, then the car will decline in value and break down. Nobody else has to pay for my bad decisions, and insurance won't cover the new engine if I ruined the old one by running without oil or maintenance.

Why should other people have to pay for the fact that I don't exercise, that I smoke, and that I eat a bad diet? "Free" insurance protects me against my own choices.

The answer is to lift restrictions on primary practice by Physicians Assistants and Nurse Practitioners. I'm not saying they should do annual check ups; we need docters, with broad training and experience, for that. But for many complaints, and for advice on diet and exercise, and smoking, even a simple computer based expert system can do a fine job. If I have a minor infection in my finger, or need my blood pressure checked, or want to know about the tingling in my diabetic toes, then I should be able to show up an office, without an appointment, and pay no more than $30 for the visit.

We can do this with oil changes, and it works fine! Why not with basic office visits? Right now, people delay going to primary care, or can't get an appointment. Then they have a REAL infection, or a stroke, or they have to have gangrenous toes removed at the emergency room.

Legalize health care. Allow PAs to practice basic primary care. And reduce the costs and hassle of going to the doctor. There is no reason it should be harder, or more expensive, than an oil change.

ATSRTWT

UPDATE: Don had this interesting piece recently, in the N&O. It is an interesting question, though I would turn it around. He asks, "Why not tax health care payments?" I ask, "Why not eliminate taxes on everything?" But we agree that the strange disparity should be ended.

Economics of Scalping

I have fooled around a little in print, and on podcast, with ticket re-selling.

So, the Bishop sends a link to this site, which I had not seen before. Very interesting, and good reading.

And, the Bishop notes, "There are some good posts on how to buy from scalpers. It made me feel OK about having paid $30 for $60 face value tickets to Cubs/Cards game last Friday. The game was in the 4th inning by the time I got there from the airport and I missed Albert's home run. I did see them walk him with the bases loaded..."

Preach, Bishop, preach!

Interesting CS Monitor Article

Terrific article in the Christian Science Monitor.

The reactions certainly are interesting, when questions get asked.

Duke did a forum on the question, some years ago. And, I am proud to say that Duke is by FAR the best place I have ever been in terms of openness to other points of view.

I'm not saying people won't argue. But there is a real commitment to diversity, and I credit our provost for that, I have to admit. He is a fine fellow. Personally quite liberal, but actually committed to real diversity.

(Nod to JB for the article reference)

Thomas Schelling speaks

on Waxman-Markey and the implications of climate change for rich and poor countries.

1. On Waxman-Markey:

"my only objection to Waxman-Markey is that it's such a hodgepodge, with all kinds of escape valves. And I don't think it's specific enough on what the cap will be from year to year to year. And also, it's 1,200 pages. And 1,200 pages implies that it's an awfully complicated hodgepodge.

If you were putting a cap on oil at the wellhead -- and a cap on coal at the minehead, a cap on gas at the wellhead, and on oil and gas at the port of importation -- so that it was essentially a cap on the fossil fuels, rather than trying to put a cap on electricity in the middle west versus electricity in the South. Or a cap on various manufacturing industries. Or a cap on refineries, even. That seems to me a not very serious way to tackle the problem where it originates. And my actual feeling is that the best you can hope for with this Waxman-Markey bill is that it'll take a few years to discover that it's a huge nuisance of the problem, and they ought to find a way to simplify it. And the way to simplify it is to put the cap on the fossil fuels, not on different industries."

2. On climate change's effect on the rich vs. the poor:

"If I were to come clean to the American public I would say that, except for a very low probability of a very bad result -- which is the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which would put Washington DC under water -- we are probably going to outgrow any vulnerability we have to climate change. And in case we'll be able to afford to buy food or import it is necessary. You know, very little of the US economy is susceptible to climate. All of agriculture is less than 3% of our gross product. Forestry may be endangered. Fisheries may be endangered. But recreation might actually benefit!

So if we can double our GDP in the next 70 or 80 years, even if we lose some of our GDP from climate change -- even if we lose 10% of our GDP from climate change -- we're still ahead so much that the effect of climate change wouldn't be noticed. But it would be pretty disastrous in a lot of the less developed parts of the world. And that's why I think it's crucially important not to demand anything of China, India and so forth that will significantly impede their economic progress".



Hat tip to Mark Thoma!

Try Harder, and Think

A thoughtful little piece from Nick T.

My Second Career as a Weather Forecaster: Not Working Out

I had scheduled a Bastille Day celebration, a mid-summer American style bbq to share the celebration of our French bretheren and sisteren. Had obtained, with help from the intrepid Hajo, a huge quantity of Hähnchenschenkel, weiners, kartoffelsalat, and a 30 liter wooden keg of Steinbach-Bräu (that was with the help of the lovely Eva, I should note, a sturdy lass when it comes to helping out with the beer and mugs.)

And I had reserved, with the help of Frau Uhlich, a terrific wide grassy spot, right on campus, and nice wooden tables and a fine large grille. (Okay, Martin was the brains behind all this, but I did what he told me, so I deserve SOME credit).

Then, Monday morgen, I look at many different weather forecasts. Rain. Rain all day. Two centimeters or more of rain, getting heavier throughout the day.

And so I postponed everything. Had to pick up the chicken thighs, but some extra marination and then freezing won't hurt them. Hadn't even bought the wassermelon or mais am kolben yet, because I wanted them to be fresh. And the hot dogs and potato salad will keep. But the beer, the location, the tables, the grille, the help, and all the guests....have to reschedule for the following week. A pretty big hassle, since everyone is trying very hard to help me, and now they are having to rework a pretty big set of things. (I can just imagine the conversations: "Wow, Munger is pretty high maintenance, isn't he?" "Um...yeah, he is. A nut.")

Tuesday morning dawns. Cold. Rainy. Blustery. I am vindicated. Except...it starts to clear up. Then, a little more rain, but big patches of blue in the sky.

By 4 pm, bright blue sunshiny sky, with puffy little clouds, just to mock me. By 6:30 pm, the time the party would have started if somebody we know hadn't panicked... a cool, clear evening, with the light clean smell that comes after (AFTER) the rain stops completely and definitively.

Honestly, I have been in Germany now for three months. At the time of the scheduled party, and for the next four hours, this was one of the three or four nicest evenings the WHOLE TIME I HAVE BEEN HERE.

I am afraid that Martin is going to pull something in his neck. Every time I see him, he is making a sincere effort not to giggle. Not that he actaully cares about my feelings. It is just that it is not necessary to say anything.

I HATE German weather.

UPDATE: A thunderstorm came through about 2 am last night. Since, it has been cold and rainy. Right now: 63F and raining pretty hard.

The only time in the last 36 hours that has not been cold and rainy was the six hour window when I had scheduled my party. In that six hours, it was beautiful.

UPDATE II: I'm not just paranoid. People have been telling that this summer is unusual. But wait: The average high in June in Erlangen is 22 C (72 F), and the low is 11 (52). The month of June averages a total of 10+ rain days. The average for July is slightly (1.5 degrees C) warmer, but with 12 rainy days. In short, this is not unusual. There just isn't any summer here. Curse you, Red Baron.

Who you got?

Tonight I turned off all the lights in the living room and was listening to Krishna Das in a peaceful reverie (while Mrs. A  was Wii boxing upstairs). Just me, Krishna, and the glow of my tube amp, when from nowhere it occurred to me: now that Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, Desmond Dekker, Johnny Cash, and Ali Farka Toure are all recently passed on, I might be listening to the best voice living on the planet. 

Seriously, who are the other contenders? 

Van Morrison is up there, Youssou N'Dour, Bill Callahan, and maybe Kurt Wagner? Anyone else? Maybe Jamie Stewart? 

I am not talking about favorite singers or great musicians, but best voice (Probably my favorite singer who doesn't really have a great voice but can really bring spirit and emotion is John Prine).

How great is it to be able to listen to any of these voices whenever you want?

OK, 'nuff said. Back to Krishna Das!

    

The Culture that is Germany III

In Germany, green means go!!!

Still I can't help but wonder if they really want their business done helmets off.

No Complaining, and No Politics. Othewise, say what you want!

Ken over at Popehat tut-tutts some things that need to be tut-tutted.

Economists Make Prediction, Prediction is Correct!

How Smart Are the Smart Guys? A Unique View from Hedge Fund Stock Holdings

John Griffin & Jin Xu, Review of Financial Studies, July 2009, Pages 2531-2570

Abstract: Compared to mutual funds, hedge funds prefer smaller, opaque value securities, and have higher turnover and more active share bets. Decomposing returns into three components, we find that hedge funds are better than mutual funds at stock picking by only 1.32% per year on a value-weighted basis, and this result is insignificant on an equal-weighted basis or with price-to-sales benchmarks. Hedge funds exhibit no ability to time sectors or pick better stock styles. Surprisingly, we find only weak evidence of differential ability between hedge funds. Overall, our study raises serious questions about the perceived superior skill of hedge fund managers.

-----------------------

Luck versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Alpha Estimates

Eugene Fama & Kenneth Frenchm University of Chicago Working Paper, March 2009

Abstract: The aggregate portfolio of U.S. equity mutual funds is close to the market
portfolio, but the high costs of active management show up intact as lower returns to investors. Bootstrap simulations produce no evidence that any managers have enough skill to cover the costs they impose on investors. If we add back costs, there is some evidence of inferior and superior performance (non-zero true alpha) in the extreme tails of the cross section of mutual fund alpha estimates. The evidence for performance is, however, weak, especially for successful funds, and we cannot reject the hypothesis that no fund managers have skill that enhances expected returns.

Since both of these results are PRECISELY what economists would predict, I expect to hear a little credit from you nay-sayers.

What I don't understand is why universities wasted so much money on high-priced investment advisers. Hell, I could have lost 20% or more of Duke's endowment, and done it for HALF the cost.

Fact is, Ms. Mungowitz and I bailed out of the stock market for our 401k money in August of 2007. Now, that was not the peak, and for a while I felt silly. But converting all of our stocks into cash and short term gov bonds certainly "made" us a lot of cash, from November 2008 through February 2009. And I didn't charge us any fees at ALL.

Called Strikes On Checked Swings

What is going on with baseball umps?

They are calling strikes on checked swings. I don't mean checked swings that went around. I mean a twitch, not even close to a real strike.

Both the home plate umps, and the 1st/3rd umps, are calling strikes that are clearly balls. It must be a policy.

I am not complaining in a partisan way; the Cards seem to benefit as often as they are harmed. What I mean is, the umps are calling it both ways.

But those are not strikes. What's happening here?

I am not the only one who has noticed, I should point out. Here, and here. Oh, and here.

Another example, perhaps the clearest I have found:

Umpire Jim Wolf who called the balls and strikes in yesterdays game for the Mets pitchers, and just the strikes for the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett, should be investigated for betting on baseball. Only someone who had money on the Yankees would have given Burnett those strike calls. The first and third base coaches must have been in on the fix too, as the checked swing strikes weren’t even close.

Sure, that guy is a Mets fan, and so not really to be trusted. But....c'mon.

Shaq attack

An embellished account of Shaq's meet up with Cav coach Mike Brown here.

Smarter Nations are More Liberal

IQ and the Values of Nations

Satoshi Kanazawa, Journal of Biosocial Science, July 2009, Pages 537-556

Abstract: The origin of values and preferences is an unresolved theoretical question in behavioural and social sciences. The Savanna-IQ Interaction Hypothesis, derived from the Savanna Principle and a theory of the evolution of general intelligence, suggests that more intelligent individuals may be more likely to acquire and espouse evolutionarily novel values and preferences (such as liberalism and atheism and, for men, sexual exclusivity) than less intelligent individuals, but that general intelligence may have no effect on the acquisition and espousal of evolutionarily familiar values. Macro-level analyses show that nations with higher average intelligence are more liberal (have greater highest marginal individual tax rate and, as a result, lower income inequality), less religious (a smaller proportion of the population believes in God or considers themselves religious) and more monogamous. The average intelligence of a population appears to be the strongest predictor of its level of liberalism, atheism and monogamy.

A blog post on the journal article..... Excerpt: Kanazawa uses a simple thought experiment to illustrate the idea that adaptations are “designed for and adapted to the conditions of the environment of evolutionary adaptedness, not necessarily to the current environment.” In other words, our very ancient ancestors’ environment.

Now, I am a fan of evolutionary biology. Evolutionary psychology is more speculative, but okay, can be interesting. But the kind of "just so" story being concocted here is just silly nonsense.

From the comments on that blog post: "It should also be noted that the Journal of Biosocial Sciences has a reputation for publishing offensive and poorly evidenced papers that make undeservedly big splashes."

Look, Dr. Kanazawa has happened upon a purely cross-sectional correlation, one that is easily explained. The more money the state spends on indoctrinating people in state schools, the more those same people favor state schools. Yes, there is a by-product, in that people with more schooling also perform better on IQ tests. But Dr. Kanazawa has uncovered either a wholly spurious correlation, or else one where the causation is actually reversed. It is not true that smart nations are more liberal. What is true is that liberal nations spend more taxpayer money on public education. Whether that is a good thing or not is debatable, of course. But it has nothing to do with the magic faeries that Dr. Kanazawa seems to see dancing in the air around him.

(A big happy nod to Kevin L. Bless you, lad. This is pure gold)

UPDATE: This paper, forthcoming in INTELLIGENCE, is much more carefully done, and is at least worth considering, in terms of its conclusions and results--Charlie Reeve, "Expanding the g-nexus: Further evidence regarding the relations among national IQ, religiosity and national health outcomes," Intelligence, forthcoming

Some Important Verbs

Angus and I have been having a small debate, about two verbs. But with help from Martin K., I have come up with the key distinction.

Angus claims (and rightly) that the verb "to Jess" means to make certain social commitments, perhaps only implicitly but still clearly, and then just completely blow them off. For example, if you are skiing with several people, and all make plans for going to dinner after the next run. Then one or two of the group see the route you are taking down, and with nothing more than a "I'm not going that way" take off down a much longer run, served by a different lift line. You have been "Jessed" (named after the master Jesser, Jess Yawitz. (A junior Jess master is Tom Gilligan, coming up fast through the rankings, for Jessing promised golf outings).

"To Munger" is, I would claim, somewhat different. I do have the habit of going to a party, and then when it is time to go I just leave. Not quite sneak out, but...okay, I sneak out. I don't like the whole big scene of taking leave, small talk, interrupting the conversation of other people just so I can go home. This is NOT Jessing, which involves the breaking of the promise for further social interaction. Anyway, Martin Kypta came up with the perfect short definition of Mungering: "To Munger is to waive goodbye." I wish I had thought of that.

UPDATE: Angus is going to argue that "To Munger" has at least two archaic meanings. The first is to use one's large (and possibly smelly) body to wind around plates or boxes of supposedly shared food items, thereby claiming them, much as a dog might. (And, yes, this did really happen, absolutely.)

The second is to make large (in fact, grandiose) claims about athletic skills and mastery of sports. It later turns out the actual talent level is much, MUCH less, and then the Mungerer will make some even MORE preposterous excuse. The excuse simply adds to the comedy material of John Jarosz, who retells the story four or five times each day for a month.

While I do honor Angus' position as the keeper of the flame of tradition, I think these two archaic meanings are no longer in common usage.

Faculty v. Student Football Match

So, here at FAU there is a summer party where faculty play the undergrads, in Politisiche Wissenschaft land, in a football match.

I was immediately pronounced "Captain." Yes, that thingie on my right arm says "Spielfuehrer"; I think I am going to ask the folks back at Duke to start calling me "Der Lehrerfuehrer." It has a certain ring to it. (oh, and yes, I realize they were mocking me, by making me Spielfuehrer, but they were mocking me in a friendly way. No, I'm sure of it. All the people trying to hide their laughter, they were just jealous. You know how people are.) I did get a picture of some of the students from my class. F and A, on the right side, both seemed to find all of this rather more amusing than I had hoped. Here is the "after the match" photo. Darned kids. They kicked our butts, 6-2. I contributed two assists, I should note. Both for the other team. (Look, the guy I kicked it to was wide open, and in front of the net. Sure, he was on the THEIR team, not mine, but he WAS OPEN. My teammates were not very impressed. "You are supposed to STOP them from scoring!) If you click on the photo, you will see IDs for Der Geist, Martin, Hajo the intrepid, and of course me (still wearing the Spielfuehrer armband). After the game, Der Geist went around complaining that he had forgotten to bring any underwear. This act played to mixed reviews, at best.

But it was a terrific evening. Very fun, a real sense of fellowship. I was proud to be a member of the department, if only temporarily.

Big Swinging Sports Cars

The effect of conspicuous consumption on men's testosterone levels

Gad Saad & John Vongas, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, forthcoming

Abstract:
Using evolutionary psychology as a theoretical framework, it is argued that conspicuous consumption serves as a means by which men communicate their social status to prospective mates. Accordingly, men's endocrinological responses, particularly their testosterone levels, are responsive to fluctuations in their status as triggered by acts of conspicuous consumption. Study 1 reports that men's testosterone levels increased and decreased partially (directionally), after driving an expensive sports car and an old family sedan, respectively. Additionally, the location of the drive, either a busy downtown area or a semi-deserted highway, partially moderated this response. Study 2 demonstrates that when men's social status was threatened by the wealth displays of a male confederate in the presence of a female moderator, their testosterone levels increased. This is suggestive of an evolved mechanism for responding to intra-sexual challenges. Collectively, these constitute the first set of studies to measure hormonal outcomes in consumer behavior.

(Nod to Kevin L)

T. Hobbes: Marginalist?

Der Geist writes with this question:

Did Thomas Hobbes have at least some glimmerings of the origins of subjective marginalist thinkings in economics?

Justice of Actions, is by writers divided into commutative, Distributive; ...Commutative they place in the equality of value of the things contracted for; and distributive, in the distribution of equall benefit, to men of equall merit. As if it were Injustice to sell dearer than we buy; or to give more to a man than he merits. The value of all things contracted for, is measured by the Appetite of the Contractors: and therefore the just value, is that which they be contented to give (Leviathan, chapter 15, paragraph 15)

Bringing their A game

Loyal KPC readers know that when it comes to the annual "running of the bulls" in Pamplona, I am totally rooting for the bulls (see here and here).

Well this year the bulls are not fooling around, as they claimed their 15th victim since the "festival" started keeping records in the early 1900s.

According to the NY daily news:

"The San Fermin festival Web site said the unidentified man was gored in the neck and lung during a run in which a rogue bull named Cappuccino separated from the pack, which is among the worst things that can happen at Spain's most popular fiesta."

"Rogue"? Really? Why not "Rational" or "Unhappy to be stampeded through the streets only to be ritually slaughtered later in front of a cheering crowd"

Spain is a beautiful country that I greatly enjoyed visiting but there is something deeply F-d up about a place where this is the "most popular fiesta" in the country.

Marc A: Back in the Game

Marc A has an announcement. Check it out.

The Culture that is Germany II

With any luck, this will be a long running series:

"BERLIN (Reuters) – A drunk German sparked a slow-speedpolice chase after stealing a tractor to get home from a nightclub after his girlfriend left without him, said police, who used pepper spray to try to stop the vehicle.

"After his girlfriend abandoned him in a night club, the 23-year-old driver, who doesn't own a license, commandeered the vehicle to make his way home," a police spokesman said on Monday.

Six police cars began trailing the tractor, which was chugging along at 20 km (12 miles) an hour, after they were alerted to the theft at about 5 a.m. Saturday.

Officers tried holding up stop signs and directing pepper spray through the open window to bring the driver to a halt.

They then tried unsuccessfully to end his getaway by throwing nail belts on the road, but the tractor's tires proved too thick, said the police spokesman.

The 40-minute chase finally came to an end when officers shot at the tractor's tires after it rammed into a police car and collided with another vehicle."

My favorite part? "Officers tried holding up stop signs!" Having visited Germany a couple times, I honestly can't  believe that didn't work. Maybe the dude was really Austrian.

NC Round-up

North Carolina News Round-up: Mayberry was never like this!

1. Bob Ethridge (D- ) actually managed to summon moral outrage about the chance that some large corporate chicken farms were about to go bankrupt. Bob's solution: Quick! Give them other people's money!

"I introduced this legislation because these farmers should immediately be eligible for disaster assistance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture,” Etheridge said in a statement.

“I will not stand by as rural America’s poultry producers are left abandoned by this economic downturn. We have a tool to help them and this legislation would give them a strong chance to get back on their feet.”

I always thought that a disaster was a hurricane, or flood. This is just straight highway Bobbery, though. Wow.

2. Barack Obama tries to start war with Italy:

President Barack Obama presented Italian President Giorgio Napolitano this morning with a gift from North Carolina.

Obama, meeting with Napolitano prior to the G-8 Summit, presented the Italian president with a variety of American wines. Included in the package was a 2008 Raffaldini Vineyards Vermentino.

Raffaldini Vineyards is in Ronda, between Winston-Salem and Wilkesboro, and the vinyard's owners were thrilled to have their wine included in the gift.

Nothing can possibly go wrong with this... It's not like the Italians know anything about wine, right? Ooops. I predict that Italian Air Force bombers are taking off right now, heading for Diego Garcia in retribution.

3. NC Senate Remembers Vernon Malone. I remember Vernon Malone, also. Last September, at a forum, a few weeks before the election, I espied Senator Malone standing by himself, having some refreshment at the soft drink table. I went over and introduced myself (we had met several times, but I knew he wouldn't remember, no reason he would, he met lots of folks, every day).

He was a very civil and genteel man, and took my hand and leaned over to hear what I had to say. As soon as he heard my name, he literally jumped back, dropped my hand, and half ran across the room to stand with some other folks. He did not look back.

I thought it was odd, but a moment's reflection reveals the explanation: He didn't want anyone to take his picture talking to me. There were in fact lots of reporters and media there. And, in the Senator's defense, I see his point. It would seem disloyal for a senior Democratic Senator to be seen talking to the Libertarian Governor candidate. No harm in it, but why take a chance of having to explain it, especially if I got free ink from it. It was nothing personal, just good political instincts on his part.

So, Senator Malone, you were a fine man, North Carolina misses you, and I don't blame you for high-tailin' it. You moved pretty fast for a 77 year old guy, I have to admit.

Overcompensation?

No Need to Over-Complexificate This

There is no need to overcomplexificate* this. I think the following study goes a couple of steps too far.

The Heritage of Herding and Southern Homicide: Examining the Ecological Foundations of the Code of Honor Thesis

Robert Baller, Matthew Zevenbergen & Steven Messner Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, August 2009, Pages 275-300

Abstract:
The authors examine the ecological foundations of the thesis of a "code of honor" as an explanation for southern homicide. Specifically, they consider the effects of indicators of ethnic groups that migrated from herding economies (the Scotch-Irish), cattle and pig herding, and the relative importance of agricultural production across different areas in the Old South. Using county-level data on argument-related White male homicide offenders (1983 to 1998) from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Supplementary Homicide Reports, the authors observe the theoretically expected positive interaction between the proxy measure of the presence of Scotch-Irish communities, namely, the percentage of churches that were Presbyterian in 1850, and the number of cattle and pigs per capita in 1850. They also find a negative effect of an index of crop production in 1850 on argument-related offending. The overall pattern of these findings is highly consistent with the herding thesis advanced by Nisbett and Cohen.

Herding economies? That's full of sheep dip. It's pretty simple: if you give a bunch of Scottish Presbyterians guns, a LOT of people are going to die. And you can call it a code of honor. But it's more like one of Angus's jokes:

What is the origin of copper wire? It was a shortage: Two Scots, one penny.

*GW Bush may never have said this. But I bet he did.

(Nod to Kevin L)