Here's Taylor's graph (clic the pic for a more glorious image):
It's clearly true that spending automatically rises in (after?) a recession and that has something to do with the bulge around 2009.
But Taylor's beef with Obama is that spending never falls back down in the out years, even though growth is projected to be pretty robust.
Krugman sez that's just due to mandated spending increases and would have happened no matter what. But people, look at the CBO budget projections from 2007 shown in the graph below (clic the pic for a more glorious image):
All the automatic spending increase stuff Krugman talks about was known about when these projections were made, so I am not sure how it can be that Obama (and Pelosi and Reid) have / are not proposing a significant expansion of Federal spending!
We are talking about permanently raising Federal spending by 2-3 percentage points of GDP in ways that were not foreseen in 2007.