45 czars!

The Ruriks (rulers of Moscow)
Ivan I 1325-1340
Simon 1340-1353
Ivan II 1353-1359
Dimitrij Ivanovich 1359-1389
Vasilij I 1398-1425
Vasilij II 1425-1462
Ivan III 1462-1505
Vasilij III 1505-1533
Ivan IV, the terrible 1533-1584
Feodor I 1584-1598
Boris Godunov 1598-1605
Feodor II 1605
Dimitrij, the false 1605-1606
Vasilij IV Sjujsky 1606-1610

The House of Romanov
Michail III 1613-1645
Alexej Michailovich 1645-1676
Feodor III 1676-1682
Ivan V 1682-1696
Peter I, the great 1682-1725
Catherine I 1725-1727
Peter II 1727-1730
Anna Ivanova 1730-1740
Ivan VI and grand duchess Anna Leopoldovna 1740-1741
Elizabeth 1741-1762

The House of Holstein-Gottorp-Romanov
Peter III 1762
Catherine II, the great 1762-1796
Paul I 1796-1801
Alexander I 1801-1825
Nicholas I 1825-1855
Alexander II 1855-1881
Alexander III 1881-1894
Nicholas II 1894-1917

Just over 30. Compare that to the....czars of Obama! There are 45 of them.... all at once!

Nod to the Blonde.

P-Kroog!

Always the critic, always with the details...P-kroog objects to this graph.

Some background on the upward sloping aggregate demand argument. Proving once again that P-kroog is just not that good a macro-economist. ("Minsky moment?" Have Angus draw you his famous "Minsky curve" sometime. It's downward drooping.)

Nod to Kevin Lewis

Perfect

A venn diagram. It pretty much says it all.

Nod to James Sinclair, and thanks to Steve Horwitz.

Will Wilkinson on Ron Paul

Will W gives an analysis of Dr. Ron Paul.

The U.S. could do worse, and almost certainly will do worse, for President.

But I really am confused how people identify RP with "libertarian." It just ain't so. A friend recently told me that RP was "the most libertarian of the major candidates." Okay. But Mussolini* was the most libertarian of the Axis dictators, but that doesn't make him a libertarian.

(*No, I'm not saying RP is Mussolini; I'm saying that the "he's the most XXXX of the YYYYs" doesn't mean the person is actually XXXX).

On the other hand, I was and remain sympathetic to the claim that the main part of the state-sponsored Repub party, and the state-owned media, ignore RP because he is TOO libertarian. That's a fair critique, as Jon Stewart points out.

Are firms acting irrationally by not investing more?

In an amazingly hubristic NY Times opinion piece, Richard Thaler tries to nudge American companies into doing the right thing:

Corporations are hoarding cash at record rates. The Federal Reserve recently reported that nonfinancial companies in the United States were holding more than $2 trillion in cash and other liquid assets — money that is earning next to nothing. A considerable amount of that cash has been accumulated in the last two years — and the totals exclude the substantial sums the companies hold abroad in foreign subsidiaries. Of course, it can be sensible for businesses to have a source of emergency cash, but many appear to be stockpiling so much that it’s hard to imagine what emergency they fear. To cite just one example, Google is holding more than $39 billion in cash...

Yet is such caution rational? As a shareholder, I would worry about a company that says it can’t find investments that can reasonably be expected to earn well above the tiny return of its cash.

Investment does not necessarily have to involve increasing capacity. Are there no plants or equipment that need upgrading? No promising research-and-development opportunities to be explored? Not even any parking lots that need to be repaved and painted?

I also do not buy the idea that companies need all this cash for acquisitions. If they really want to buy another business, they can issue stock to do so.

It's pretty hard to unpack all the errors/hubris in this quote, but let's try.

The biggest error Thaler makes is that he implies that the idea that firms are acting irrationally by delaying investment can be confirmed by the fact that positive NPV projects are not being done.

"Yet is such caution rational? As a shareholder, I would worry about a company that says it can’t find investments that can reasonably be expected to earn well above the tiny return of its cash."

The problem with this "logic" is that it is contradicted by the entire body of modern economic literature on investment. The literature shows that there is an option value to waiting to invest until conditions are favorable.

See for example "The Value of Waiting to Invest" by McDonald & Siegal (QJE 1987 cited over 2000 times according to Google Scholar) or "Waiting to Invest: Investment & Uncertainty", by Ingersoll & Ross (Journal of Business 1992 cited over 350 times according to Google Scholar).

Here's a crucial sentence in the Ingersoll & Ross abstract:

"The ability to delay a project means that almost every project competes with itself postponed"

The second mistake Thaler makes is downright embarrassing. He seems to assume that investment by firms is actually zero!

Are there no plants or equipment that need upgrading? No promising research-and-development opportunities to be explored? Not even any parking lots that need to be repaved and painted?

Umm, what evidence does Thaler show that these routine tasks are not being undertaken? Firms are sitting on a lot of cash, but firms are also currently investing over $1.5 trillion dollars (in 2005 dollars) this year. That should be enough to pave a few parking lots.

Finally, Thaler informs us that: "I also do not buy the idea that companies need all this cash for acquisitions. If they really want to buy another business, they can issue stock to do so."

Amazing! This is true just because he says so? The horrible condition of the stock market, the problems in the IPO market (which is different but clearly related) are apparently irrelevant; just issue stock, you bungling morons!

This is really one of the worst editorials I've ever seen by a respected economist.

Separated at Birth: Gronke and Grienke

Pretty amazing. Dr. Paul Gronke, of Reed College

....and Zach Grienke, pitcher for Milw. Brewers

I'm just sayin'...

Carnival Fraud: Really?

So...sheriff's deputies run undercover sting operation to pester people at carnivals.

Because we all want to make sure that no one actually wins any prizes.

Anthony Dewayne Ellis, 32, of Locust Grove, and Kenneth Lea McLeod, 50, of Ashland, Va., agreed to change the rules of a game for undercover Tulsa County sheriff’s deputies, according to an arrest report.

The carnival workers were operating a game involving throwing darts into star-shaped holes when they gave a discounted price to the deputies, who later asked “what it would take to win the big prize,” the report says.

The workers awarded the prize — a stuffed character from the game Angry Birds — after letting the deputies play for $20 regardless of the outcome.

The game’s posted rules required paying $5 to throw darts into the holes for prizes of escalating value, the report says.

State law requires that rules for carnival games be posted at all times. Contradicting the posted rules is a misdemeanor.

(Nod to Jackie Blue, who never cheats)

All We Are Saying, Is Give.....

Actually, I have no idea what they are saying.



You have to like the "Information Man!" thing from the highly educated plumber's helper just after 2:10.

But my favorite is the guy who want "the government" to run the banks. When asked, what about Republicans....um, no, not them. The "government."

Patenting Dad

Creativity and the Family Tree: Human Capital Endowments and the Propensity of Entrepreneurs to Patent

Albert Link & Christopher Ruhm, NBER Working Paper, September 2011

Abstract: In this paper we show that the patenting behavior of creative entrepreneurs is correlated with the patenting behavior of their fathers, which we refer to as a source of the entrepreneurs’ human capital endowments. Our argument for this relationship follows from established theories of developmental creativity, and our empirical analysis is based on survey data collected from MIT’s Technology Review winners.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Not Only Not the Onion, But Not Monty Python

This goes well beyond a simple "not the Onion." This crosses well over into "not Monty Python" territory. (If you think I'm wrong, do watch this early planning meeting of "Occupy Wall Street," where they decide on their program, their demands, and who they will follow...)

Protesters at "Self-Absorbed Atlanta" (yes, they call it "Occupy Atlanta," but my title is more accurate) have set up a system where they can solve a bunch of problems that don't actually exist.

1. How to talk when you have a weak megaphone. Normal solution: get a better sound system. Self-Absorbed Atlanta solution: have a simultaneous translation, English to English.

2. How to signal approval. Normal solution: applause. SAA solution: little jazz hands waving, so no ones' voice is drowned out by applause. Of course, nobody is going to see the individual hands in the sea of hands, either. Either way, minority disagreement is going to be overwhelmed. EXCEPT: SAA requires unanimity! So you CAN see the one nut job/racist/star trek fan who wants to block things. Do NOT talk to the jazz hand that says "no!" (If you are not familiar with Jazz Hands, here is a quick guide to SAA hand signals!*)

3. Finally, if you can stand to watch for that long (I skipped after two minutes, I have to admit. SAA can really do some powerful auto-politicism), go to the 8.5 minute mark. Congressman John Lewis stood up to Bull Connor, and crossed the bridge at Selma on Bloody Sunday. But he was no match for the self-righteous idiocy of Self-Absorbed Atlanta.



As Pelsmin, who sent this in, notes: "This is a perfect illustration of how the extreme left's desire to liberate people from oppressive societal conventions like democracy will lead to something like the Soviet bureaucracy." And Soviet civil liberties, too! An invited speaker suffers the heckler's veto, in this video. Wow!

*Okay, no it wasn't. But I made you look. I think that video should replace Rick-rolling with "Tiny-rolling."

Atheist Hymnal

(nod to the LMM)

New Blog: Euvoluntary Exchange.

New Blog! All things "Euvoluntary."

It is really just for information, and to provide examples for folks who want to use the concept of euvoluntary exchange (either because you think it is useful, or stupid!) in teaching and writing.

At the upper right there are some resources and background information. I'll be adding to that as time goes by.

In the meantime, please do send examples, comments, or critiques, especially of things that happened in the world or the classroom.

And I'll post them, right away. If there is analysis to be done, it will still be back here on good ol' KPC. The new blog is really just an information source.

Business Headlines

Rising wages in China push jobs back to U.S. Look, we told you so. We did.

Amar Bhide: limit the rates banks can pay on deposits!

Lynn Sneary condescends to a venture capitalist who explains why jobs are caused by growth, not vice versa.

The Final Answer: You are BOTH Crazy

There was a bit of a kerfuffle over this comic, by Zach Weiner.

Everyone, including me, was sure that the comic was mocking whoever we were not. Economists laughed that philosophers were so ridiculous, and philosophers thought it funny that economists were so shallow and arrogant. Jacob was sure he knew, for example. But then to be fair a few folks, at least, over here thought that the philosopher was ridiculous.

At KPC we want to KNOW. So I wrote to Zach W himself. And the answer is... you people are ALL crazy. And hilarious. (quotes with permission)

As to the joke: If it went right, hopefully it made fun of both. I actually did a similar treatment of philosophy vs. engineering a while back here:

In that one, hopefully it's clear that the engineer is simplifying in a way that is both informative and problematic. Since Economists are essentially engineers who work with human lives instead of mechanical systems, the perspective is more or less the same.

Curiously, it was popular in both the reddit.com economics forum and the reddit.com philosophy forum. The former thought it was making fun of philosophers for being useless, and the latter thought it was making fun of economists for lacking a sense of profundity.

So yeah, making fun of everyone. Zach Weiner, SMBC

My own conclusion: the Philosophers are not interested in an answer, really. If faced with this real life situation where a decision is required would either respond purely emotionally or else would lie on their backs and kick their little legs in the air, hoping that the problem will go away. Philosophers and grandma both die, because Philosophers aren't interested in answers, only questions.

The Economists would save the Mona Lisa, and spend the rest of their lives trying to forget the haunting screams of the grandma as they carried the Mona Lisa out of the room.

But the problem with policy analysis generally is you don't get to say, "I don't know." You have to do something, you simply must. Philosphers spend all their time wondering if they can get both thumbs up their butt at the same time, or if they have to take turns. Economists spend just a very brief time figuring out "the answer," which is always wrong, and then they pretend they already knew that.

This is Why Al Gore Invented the Internet*

(*although he never, ever actually claimed to have invented the internet)

1. In porn movies, there is sometimes a classroom setting (I am told, I would NOT know, of course). The question is: are the things written on the blackboard actually correct and useful, or did the director just phone it in? This blog answers that question (SFW, unless you work in a church).

2. Awkward Wedding Photos. Once you give the title, there is little more to say, frankly.

3. (A repeat, but always at the top of the list at KPC) Kim Jong Il Looking at Things.

4. Hospital jobs, by district (or state). You didn't even know you didn't know that, and now you know.

5. The Perfect Pet Petter. Again, nothing to add.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis, the Blonde, and Kindred)

In Honor of Steve Jobs....

Some time ago, I published a celebration of private innovation, "Two Steves and One Soichiro." One of the "Steves," of course, is Mr. Jobs.

Rereading it, I am reminded sharply how badly we would have done in innovation if democracy had been the decision rule. Just look at the quotes from the "experts" in the article. Wow.

Every Solvent Country is the Same, But Each Insolvent Country is Insolvent in its Own Way

As readers of KPC, you are of course among the world elite, the cognescenti, the "go-to" people. But I want to make sure you understand why it is that everyone is so worried about Greek default. After all, Greece has 9 million people, about the same size as North Carolina. Why worry?

In 2007-8, the reason that we had to bail out a bunch of big banks is that they had totally loaded up their balance sheets, including their reserve requirement assets, with illiquid and not very valuable CDOs and derivatives on other kinds of mortgage-backed securities. So, the problem was not so much the orginators, because they had dealt the crap and disappeared. The problem was the "smart banks," who had picked up all this bad paper because it had a high rate of return, and lap-dog rating agencies had continued to call it AAA, meaning it satisfied Basel Rule requirements for reserves.

This is a no-lose from the perspective of the banks. They got 7-8% if things go well, and get bailed out if things go sour. The guarantee of a bail-out essentially forced the banks to invest in crap, or else leave money on the table.

Amazingly, it has happened AGAIN. I almost can't believe it, but it has. The problem with Greece is not that anyone gives a flying firetruck about Greece. The problem is that Deutschebank and all the big American banks have once again loaded up on a high-risk bet. Greek bonds, especially if purchased at a discount last summer, pay a large return. We have to bail out Greece, the argument goes, NOT because it will help Greece but because otherwise the big banks will go under. It's pure theft, extortion. German citizens have to give money to the Greek government to save American banks. Because the banks bought up all that Greek debt to make money. And they are going to win. Again.

It's enough, I tell you, to make me sympathetic to the Occ Wall St folks. They have a point. Seriously, they have a point. They are insane, unfocused, and ignorant of basic economics. But there's something happening here, and what it is, is now all too clear.

Anyway, just a M. Lewis's "The Big Short" was useful for understanding the American crisis of 2007-8, his new book, "Boomerang," is great for understanding the current echoes around the world.

His basic thesis echoes Tolstoy (though these are my words, not his): Every solvent country is the same, but every insolvent country is insolvent in its own way. Iceland went nuts on derivatives, Ireland had a housing bubble that left three bedroom houses selling for upwards of 40,000,000 euros, Greece doubled the salaries, and workforce, of its public sector, California....well, I don't want to think about California.

Did someone say monetary expansion?

It has become almost fashionable to claim that the Fed is not doing nearly enough to revive the economy. This conclusion follows from the same logic that the "stimulus was too small" meme employs: Has the economy recovered? No? Then policymakers have not done nearly enough.

Check out what's happened to the monetary base since the crisis began:

(clic the pic for a more vertiginous view)

The base has gone from a path of roughly doubling each decade to more than tripling in three years.

Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair

Here is a picture of a new Congressional district cooked up by a bunch of geniuses in Maryland:



YIKES!!

Do you believe in magic?

In a recent post, Scott Sumner claims that the Fed can easily credibly commit to a nominal GDP target. He further claims that the act of choosing the target in itself would allow the Fed to hit the target without any great amount of monetary expansion:

"The Fed has plenty of credibility, that’s not the problem. The problem is that they are using the credibility to assure investors that low inflation is here to stay. With the right target, there would probably be no need for massive quantitative easing, or other extraordinary policies.

The punch line is that the problem isn’t the Fed’s unwillingness to do enough QE, twists, or cuts in IOR, the problem is the Fed’s inadequate target, just like in Japan."

In other words, the Fed can credibly commit to arbitrary future policies so well that a simple announcement of a new policy path will put the economy on that path without any heavy lifting required.

In other other words, magic!

People, the Fed has no ability to make credible commitment to future policies that might conflict with their period by period preferences! Read Kydland & Prescott. Read Barro & Gordon. Repeat after me: time inconsistency, time inconsistency, time inconsistency.

All the Fed can do is act each period according to its own preferences (yes it's weird to treat the Fed as a unitary actor given all the dissents we've seen recently, sorry).

Many societies have responded to this dilemma by invoking the Rogoff gambit; we appoint conservative central bankers. They deliver low inflation not because they are following some policy rule or pre-determined path, but because their preference is for low inflation!

The idea that there's a magic bullet out there that solves our economic problems, that the Fed could fix things by putting out a press release with a couple sentences about their plans for future NGDP growth, is wrong and somewhat dangerous.

It would from many a blunder free us

(clic the pic for a more enlightening image)

Hat tip to Felix

Linkulation

The links of October....

Central planning...of the internet?

Compensation, schmompensation: Elizabeth Warren says you don't own NOTHIN'!

"Cost-effectiveness" analysis

Gag me with a microwave: The "myplate.gov" button. No, this is NOT the Onion.

Talking

You can say whatever you want.

And we at the U will tell you what you want!

New video from FIRE

Pitching is Over Rated?

Jackie Blue sends this outrage.

Pavitt found hitting accounts for more than 45% of teams' winning records, fielding for 25% and pitching for 25%. And, the impact of stolen bases is greatly overestimated.

He crunched hitting, pitching, fielding and base-stealing records for every MLB team over a 48-year period from 1951-1998 with a method no other researcher has used in this area. In statistical parlance, he used a conceptual decomposition of offense and defense into its component parts and then analyzed recombinations of the parts in intuitively meaningful ways.

Well, as long as it's "intuitively meaningful," right? Charlie is a professor of Communication. Me? I "intuitively doubtful."

Cut cut cut, cut cut defense!

People, the federal government wastes a crap-ton of money. Let's get serious about cutting spending over the next 10 years. Here's a start:

Defense: Cut $200 billion a year. That's two trillion over 10 years. Don't worry, we'll still have a freaking huge military as current spending is north of $700 billion per year.

TSA: Eliminate it. That's $50 billion a year or 1/2 trillion over 10 years.

Agricultural Subsidies: Eliminate them. That's maybe $25 billion a year or 1/4 trillion over 10 years.

Homeland Security: Cut it in half. That's another $25 billion a year or 1/4 trillion over 10 years.

People, that's $3 trillion of REAL cuts. Easy-peasy. No entitlement reforms (which I favor as well), no cutting Obama's choo-choos and windmills, just declining to screw ourselves quite as much as we have been doing.

Anyone have numbers on other low hanging Federal fruit we can harvest?

Bizkit

This poor pup evidently had seizures, and has since died.

Still, all dogs do this, just not so violently.

Great Googly Moogly

Have you seen the 13 demands post from Occupywallst.org?

It's a doozy.

I'm stunned to see "open borders" in there with no fossil fuel, free college, cancellation of all debts for everyone, $2 Trillion in new spending. Also very surprised to not see anything about the wars and defense spending.

Firms Maximize Profits?

Senators discover that firms maximize profits.

(Nod to Chateau)

People Prefer Cheesy.... Jokes

These are some bad jokes, so I like them. And, they are CHEESY!

Nod to Tom H.

Hey Tyler: Taxes ARE going up

A lot.

The "Bush tax cuts" expire. Obamacare incorporates a myriad of substantial tax increases that come on line very soon.

Plus, our President has now figured out how to package tax increases on the wealthy as a jobs program (sorry President O. I didn't mean it. Please don't drone me)!

Yet Tyler says Republicans are silly to not make an additional tax deal, even if the stuff they want is unlikely to materialize because "taxes will eventually go up in any case, because they must"

I can't see why it's so obviously correct to be advocating for more tax increases than the one we already have on our plates.

I for one am strongly in favor of tax cuts relative to the current policy path we have.

Hit the BRICs

This doesn't seem good:

(clic the pic for an even more depressing image)

The Cartoon

Nice follow-up by Jacob L. on "the cartoon." on "the cartoon."

Here is my original post. As Jacob L notes, there was a lengthy discussion on FB about it.

The point is that this cartoon is a Rorschach test. I read it as mocking the philosopher. Most people, far and away most in my sample (biased, if anything, toward econophiles) saw the cartoon as mocking economists.

As always, disagreeing with me does NOT make you a bad person. It does, however, make you wrong.

Grand Theft Educ

Angus already mentioned this.

But you may not have read the story. Excerpt:

From California to Massachusetts, districts are hiring special investigators to follow children from school to their homes to determine their true residences and decide if they "belong" at high-achieving public schools. School districts in Florida, Pennsylvania and New Jersey all boasted recently about new address-verification programs designed to pull up their drawbridges and keep "illegal students" from entering their gates.

Other school districts use services like VerifyResidence.com, which provides "the latest in covert video technology and digital photographic equipment to photograph, videotape, and document" children going from their house to school. School districts can enroll in the company's rewards program, which awards anonymous tipsters $250 checks for reporting out-of-district students.

Only in a world where irony is dead could people not marvel at concerned parents being prosecuted for stealing a free public education for their children.

The only way the teachers' union, the AFT, can keep a lid on this is to keep parents "away from the table." The solution, as I said when I ran in 2008, is means tested voucher. The wealthy have choices now. It's the poor folks who need help.

As it is, we are just putting people in jail for "stealing" what all my leftoid friends assure me is a public good.

ATSRTWT

A History of Violence....

Steven Pinker gives a lecture on violence. There is a lot LESS of it, by the way. This is a good thing.

Governments gone wild

1. Jailing moms for lying about their residency to get their kids in a better school

2. Felony prosecuting oil companies for killing a bird

3. Setting a goal of doubling exports, but refusing to bring several completed PTAs (that would definitely expand our exports) up for a vote in Congress

Have a favorite? Have other nominees? Tell us about it!

The Onion as Truth

This is uncomfortably true, though from the Onion.

What Man Thinks Is Recycling Takes City Workers 2 Hours A Day To Sort
October 1, 2011 | ISSUE 47•40

NEW YORK—City sanitation experts confirmed yesterday that the supposed “recycling” of Manhattan resident Ron Klauff was in fact a conglomeration of various recyclable and nonrecyclable refuse that takes city workers an average of two hours and 288 gallons of water to sort and clean each week. “These days, being eco-aware is more important than ever,” said Klauff, filling a plastic shopping bag with a mixture of yogurt containers, wire hangers, and broken electronics that a civil servant will later have to sift through in the middle of the night. “You have to do your part, even if that means gathering all of your soda cans and stacking them neatly inside your pizza boxes.” Because Klauff is the only New York resident who does not carefully sort and separate his recyclables, officials are considering just tossing everything he throws out into a landfill

Yup, the "only one."

Throw Like A Girl

This young woman has obviously been practicing in that corner. Still...not bad. And it is great the way she shows up the left fielder: "Here ya go, bud, is this what you were after? (A fake video, according to our commenter, but well played)

And this....you have likely already seen it. But that look from the wife, the "why didn't I marry Chen Li instead of this idiot?" look. We have all gotten that look, husbands. And deserved it.

Of course, women aren't perfect. This woman totally steals a ball from a little girl .

der Dukatenscheisser, and other things

We often comment, here at KPC, about two things:

1. The strangeness that is Deutschland
2. Poop

It turns out that one of the strange things about Germany is the many linguistic uses Germans have for poop.

And if you don't believe, here's the straight poop on it.

Published in 1984 by a distinguished anthropologist named Alan Dundes, Life Is Like a Chicken Coop Ladder set out to describe the German character through the stories that ordinary Germans liked to tell one another. Dundes specialized in folklore, and in German folklore, as he put it, “one finds an inordinate number of texts concerned with anality. Scheisse (shit), Dreck (dirt), Mist (manure), Arsch (ass).… Folksongs, folktales, proverbs, riddles, folk speech—all attest to the Germans’ longstanding special interest in this area of human activity.”

He then proceeded to pile up a shockingly high stack of evidence to support his theory. There’s a popular German folk character called der Dukatenscheisser (“The Money Shitter”), who is commonly depicted crapping coins from his rear end. Europe’s only museum devoted exclusively to toilets was built in Munich. The German word for “shit” performs a vast number of bizarre linguistic duties—for instance, a common German term of endearment was once “my little shit bag.” The first thing Gutenberg sought to publish, after the Bible, was a laxative timetable he called a “Purgation-Calendar.” Then there are the astonishing number of anal German folk sayings: “As the fish lives in water, so does the shit stick to the asshole!,” to select but one of the seemingly endless examples.

That one about the fish is my new favorite saying. Anytime somebody complains about anything in a faculty meeting, they are going to hear that one. Inspired.

Nod to Anonyman; I bet you knew that, without looking. Anonyman has his sh*t together.

A Short Quiz: Does Plagiarism Pay?

What do you do with someone who clearly, and unquestionably, plagiarized large portions of his thesis?

Well, if you are the CSIS, you make a "Distinguished Statesman" position for Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.

To be fair, the ability to say "I stole a bunch of stuff and pretended it was mine" is a reasonable prerequisite for being a statesman, distinguished or otherwise.

Lagniappe: Germany's Foreign Minister is Guido Westerwelle. Yes, Guido. And he is openly gay, a brave man to come out and still serve in public office. I do admire him for that.

Now, you might think that being Foreign Minister for Deutschland would be pretty easy. All you have to do is say "no" whenever someone suggests that you should have a military, or any role in any foreign country. After all, having the Foreign Minister of Germany start muttering about "lebensraum" makes everybody jittery. So Herr Westerwelle should be able just to take naps and have a nice Kaffee mit Sahne at the Balzac on Friedrichstrasse, just a short walk from Ministry building.

But when Weserwelle supported the government decision to stay out of Libya (a decision the US should have taken also, btw!) he actually gets in trouble.

The moral of this story is: if you want to be promoted and revered as a statesman, steal stuff. If you want to be abused and criticized, do the right thing.

Punctuation is everything

(clic the pic for a more glorious image)

In-bred Cat

From the LMM

By Jove, I Think She's GOT it!

A friend who has been teaching about "euvoluntary exchange" got this from a student.

When he first explained the concept of BATNA and the situations in which BATNA is too low, I was all for changing those situations. However, we need to remember that if we're going to take away somebody's best option (even if it is a crappy one) then we're also going to have to give them a better alternative.

That is as good a concise summary as I could possibly imagine. Telling a poor guy in India who needs medicine for his daughter that he cannot sell his kidney is a rotten thing to do, unless you can also help him somehow. If you aren't going to help, give him access to the market!

And, we can't help everyone. But the market can.

Why Economists are Paid a LOT more than Philosophers

David Deerson sends this link. I laughed. An excerpt, though you need to look at the whole thing. Heh.

It's funny 'cause it's true.

UPDATE: Wow! My philosopher friend Kevin Vallier thinks that this cartoon, above, is making fun of ECONOMISTS! And I have to admit he may be right! To me, this cartoon illustrates why philosophers are useless low-paid parasites, and economists are collossi, bestride the world of academics! Okay, THAT's not right. But seriously, who is this cartoon mocking? To me, it is clearly mocking the philosopher. Since economists can actually answer the ridiculous koans that philosophers think are impossibly deep and unanswerable, the economists don't get to play!

Kevin's response: I think the critique of the economist is that he [the economist] is exceedingly perverse because his model of moral decision-making ignores a whole host of important considerations that any normally functioning human being recognizes. Now, I think the normally functioning human needs a good dose of economic thinking, but I do think that the sort of instrumental, consequentialist reasoning of most economists is woefully inadequate as a complete model of moral reasoning. I *think* lots of economists believe this too, even if they often ignore it, at least stereotypically.

Wow! that is 100% different from my reading of that cartoon. The fact is that an old woman is worth only a small fraction of the Mona Lisa. And I can prove it: the society spends a LOT of money to protect the Mona Lisa, with security and climate control. The old woman has to pay for her own locks on her door, and her own HVAC.

Jobs: The Good, the Bad, and the Texas

The Blonde sends a very interesting map of job changes in the U.S. Here is my county, Wake County, NC. (Do click for a more glorious image; this is a screen shot, so no interactivity. To get the interactive map, go back to here)

Notice that we are back where we were in 2007, for total jobs. (Unemp rate is up, though, becuase we have had in-migration and growth from births)

The big hammer down was construction jobs. Biggest employment sector, professional services, has just about tread water, though it is moving up slowly.

You can do it by state, also. Here is Oklahoma.

If we only had that ram, John, we could mate and have fun.

So, yes, I defended Bev "Governor Dumplin'" Perdue.

Because at another appearance, she saw some sheep and told the co-founder of SAS, "If we only had that ram, John, we could mate and have fun." How can you not enjoy that?

Look, folks: she is not quick and witty. You don't have to be smart to be an elected official.

But she was clearly joking.

Maybe I'm just defensive because I often say things like that, and people can never tell if I am joking. They can tell it's not funny, of course. But they can't tell if it was supposed to be funny.

UPDATE: From the Blonde, who is not entirely convinced Bev was joking, comes this "separated at birth" photo...

Toilets exploding in DC

Perhaps we should just start over and build a new capital.

Because even the toilets are blowing up in Washington.

(Nod to Anonyman)

I'm Sure I Think I'm Sure This is a Joke

Dutch Boy sends this, from the Kinston paper.

Not sure how to describe it. I'm sure I think it is a joke, I think.

But this may be the first time an article has engaged in self-grandgame. Impressive. I think.

“I’m no prude,” says Paulette Burroughs, 39, of La Grange. “But something I saw in that store was way over the line.”

Burroughs said she made the discovery Monday afternoon while planning a “Dancing with the Stars” viewing party at her home.

“We had a real good time, except for when old Nancy Grace decided to turn one of her sweater puppies loose,” Burroughs said. “That thing looked like it’d been eatin’ lemons all day.”

Martin comes to class!

Uber-reader Martin came to class and gave a very nice lecture on democracy. Worked well, and I appreciate the good lecture.

Separated at birth

People if you put a porn 'stache and a $200 haircut on Tyler Cowen, HE'D BE MOHAMED EL-ERIAN!

See for your selves:

Don't cry for me Argentina

In my international econ class, we just finished reading and discussing Bluestein's excellent book: "And the Money kept rolling in" about the Argentine financial crisis.

It's distressing to see Greece following the same path and the international community making the same mistakes today.

In class today, we are going to act out the crisis, PTI roleplay style, with heads on sticks! From Rogoff to Cavallo to Mulford to Menem to O'Neil to El-Erian.

Here are some of the heads waiting to receive their sticks:

Flip-flops

Here's Cleveland Cavs owner Dan Gilbert, one of the leading hardline owners in the current NBA lockout singing a very different tune in 2005:


"To me, NBA franchises are like pieces of art. There are only 30 of them. They aren't always on the market, especially a franchise that would have been such a natural fit ... If you just looked at the Cavaliers in terms of revenues, profits and balance sheets -- and you paid this amount for it -- people would say "You're insane! You're nuts." But if you look at all the tentacles, the impact on our other venues, it makes tremendous sense. We have now opened a Cleveland office [of Quicken Loans] and that's tremendously successful. Our employees love it that we're associated with the Cavs and can come to games -- that helps us attract and keep better people. There are a lot of non-profit things that can be done with pro sports. It brings an unbelievable amount of excitement."

Quote is from here.

Two interesting Malcolm Gladwell NBA posts are here and here.

Double Fail

We all know that the Middle East is full of fail, but sometimes the fail is too good to pass up.

Consider first the "Palestinian Spring" story.

So here's an entrenched calling for his own ouster? After all the Arab spring involved deposing existing leaders.

Next up is that well known reformer King Abdullah giving women the right to vote.

Not in the upcoming election of course, but later. This will make a big difference in Saudi policies I'm sure as votes mean so much in the Kingdom.

PS: If you are wondering where I get off calling a geriatric despot a "reformer", it's right in the AP story linked to above:

"The right to vote is by far the biggest change introduced by Abdullah, considered a reformer, since he became the country's de facto ruler in 1995 during the illness of King Fahd."

Vegan Strip Club

This review (sent by Raoul) is...I suppose "serious" is not quite the right word. But it is not a hoax, it seems.

The reviews are the best part. For example: "if you like naked ladies and chili cheese fries, come check it out."

UPDATE: (Yes, cheese is not vegan. However, "cheese" could be. Soy "cheese," that sort of thing).

And Kindred points us to this, to be filed, as he notes, in...whatever category it is already. (No fur jokes, please)

Are markets like the honey badger?

Jerry Evensky says yes:

In my introductory economics class I explain that markets are amoral – not moral, not immoral ... amoral. In that sense they are like computers ... incredibly powerful at processing immense amounts of information in useful ways, but totally agnostic as to the use. Computers can be used to educate, to elucidate, to heal ... or to develop weapons of mass destruction. They don’t give a damn, nor do markets ... nor does homo economicus.

(that's the full quote, the "... " parts are in the original. I have enlarged the money part)

um...what?

I have no idea what this study purports to show.

Positive emotion word use and longevity in famous deceased psychologists

Sarah Pressman & Sheldon Cohen
Health Psychology, forthcoming

Objective: This study examined whether specific types of positive and negative emotional words used in the autobiographies of well-known deceased psychologists were associated with longevity.

Methods: For each of the 88 psychologists, the percent of emotional words used in writing was calculated and categorized by valence (positive or negative) and arousal (activated [e.g., lively, anxious] or not activated [e.g., calm, drowsy]) based on existing emotion scales and models of emotion categorization.

Results: After controlling for sex, year of publication, health (based on disclosed illness in autobiography), native language, and year of birth, the use of more activated positive emotional words (e.g., lively, vigorous, attentive, humorous) was associated with increased longevity. Negative terms (e.g., angry, afraid, drowsy, sluggish) and unactivated positive terms (e.g., peaceful, calm) were not related to longevity. The association of activated positive emotions with longevity was also independent of words indicative of social integration, optimism, and the other affect/activation categories.

Conclusions: Results indicate that in writing, not every type of emotion correlates with longevity and that there may be value to considering different categories beyond emotional valence in health relevant outcomes.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis, who is never drowsy, afraid, sluggish)

Back in Black

Records are back. They are so back that even The Economist has taken note:

One innovation that has helped vinyl sales is that albums often now come with codes that let you download a MP3 version of the music (occasionally, they come with FLAC downloads, but not often enough for nuts like me who sometimes buy both the LP and the CD(to get a high quality download)).

Apparently at lot of the young 'uns buy LPs and never play them.

Here's Dom from one of my new favorite bands (Dom):

“The reason we sell vinyl is that there will always be a market for it...people probably already downloaded the music anyway, and they’ll buy the record because of the big artwork and because it’s something you can hold on to.”

At Chez Angus, we have ditched the CD player. We have 800+ albums stored in lossless files and a cabinet full of LPs.

Government by waiver

The Obama administration has really gotten into a groove with selective non-enforcement of unpopular laws. First Ms. Sebelius got the ball rolling with hundreds of waivers from the provisions of Obamacare. Now Arne Duncan gets his chance with the announcement that the Dept. of Education will selectively grant waivers from the consequences of not hitting the educational targets in NCLB.

Aaaargh!

They are giving waivers now for targets that come due in 2014!

Of course, "comply or face the consequences" is totally out of the question. Just ask Matt Yglesias:

"Simply refusing to grant waivers would be an unworkable non-starter. The issue is whether to just hand the waivers out, or to impose conditionality."

Anybody still think we can pass a bill now that actually would lock in long-term deficit reduction?

Anyone?

Bueller?

The laws of health care

1. Everyone Dies!

2. No amount of taxation can reverse #1.

3. Much of our health care spending is wasteful

1 and 2 are golden. need more good ones though.

Thanks and apologies (but no blame) to Dan Diamond, Austin Frakt, & Don Taylor.

Sol-Gate

I don't even need to make any remarks about this any more.

Just read the WaPo about Sol-Gate. That's WaPo, not WaTimes, btw.

Solyndra was not Teapot Dome, but it's heading that way. Really, really bad stuff for Obamanoids.

(Nod to Anonyman)

My Dog Owns My House? I don't think so...

If I need security, I get a dog. If a group of us need security, we might sign a contract and get a really big, strong dog. Let's call it...I don't know... GOVERNMENT. It's big, stupid, poops in places it shouldn't and wastes a lot of time sleeping and licking its "Representative Wiener", because it can.

But, suppose that big smelly dog also does a reasonably good job protecting my house, and yours. We build factories, we create wealth, we do a lot of useful things.

And it's true that we needed the dog, for security, so we could concentrate on things that idiotic, lazy dogs can't do.

For some reason, Elizabeth Warren concludes from all this that our dog...OWNS OUR HOUSE! That is just a non sequitur. It's a DOG. But here is what she says.

“There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own — nobody! You built a factory out there? Good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police-forces and fire-forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory — and hire someone to protect against this — because of the work the rest of us did.

Actually, you didn't pay for them, ma'am, the factory owner did. Why would my dog own my house?

The full, surprisingly idiotic video...

(Not sure where I first heard the "why should your dog own your house?" formulation, but my good friend Tony de Jasay is a likely source)

Why Lie?

As Mr. Overwater aptly asks, in a comment on a different post, "Why lie?"

My question, specifically, is "Why would Al Gore tell an obvious, easily disconfirmed lie about the number of people who watched his public masturbation on the environment?" Because he did lie, egregiously. The only way you can get to Al's numbers is if you count people who watched for five seconds, and then replicate them so that each five seconds counts as a new viewer, over the whole period. If you don't do that, you get this.

The answer, I'm afraid, is not very complicated. Al Gore has become the Jimmy Swaggart, the Pat Robertson, and the Billy Sunday of the Enviro Movement. Of course, quite a few people in the Enviro movement are too smart to fall for this Al A-Gorey.

"Oh, HELP me, Jeebus! Send money right away, to save the world from global warming! Send money! We accept all major credit cards. And I accept $100,000* per speaking engagement so I can maintain my 20,000** square foot home with gaslight lanterns on the driveway! Carbon offsets for you, massive hypocrisy for me!"

For video fans: A feast for the eyes...24 hours of ManBearPig.

NOTES: *--not an exaggeration. **--an exaggeration, or a "lie" if you will. This whole post is a satire, not a documentary. I don't think Al Gore says "Jeebus;" he says "Gaia," the Earth Mother. Oh, and I should note that Al Gore never claimed to invent the internet. He also didn't invent the religious scam. But he used the internet to make money off his enviro-religion scam very effectively.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Sentiments entirely appropriate to these troubled times

Hat tip to David C.

Why Did Al Gore Invent the Interwebs?

I can answer the question "why did Al Gore invent the interwebs?" pretty easily.

It is so we can share with you this cri de couer from Ryan Theriot. Money quote: "When I was playing shortstop," he said, serving as his era's tragic spokesman, "we were in first place. I know that. It is what it is."

The point is that Netflix collapsed, and waterparks are empty, and in many cases closed, because of that little f**k Furcal. It is, indeed, what it is. And nothing less.

A giant appreciation to Kindred. This is pure comedy gold.

A pic of Ryan in happier days, at Wrigley.

Something Funny This Way Comes

Notice anything odd about this "restaurant review"? Check it out.

That's right.... they never mention food, service, those things.

Apparently they think that many people will make their dining choices based on how many wasteful public subsidies for inefficient alternative energy technologies the owners have sucked down.

"Oooooh, look, honey, solar panels on the roof! I can see them by the moonlight! Let's stop and have a romantic candlelight dinner, since there is no electricity."

"I don't know; what kind of food do they have?"

"Who cares? All that matters is that we are seen entering such a politically correct establishment. Make sure you leave the lights on from the car. No one will recognize me in those 1.5 watt LEDs."

(Nod to the Blonde)

Mr. Green Jobs

This sensitive person is yowling about green jobs. That's fine, that's what sensitive people do.

But in this context asking the question, "Why is the US losing the Green Race?" is a strange thing to say. If ol' A-Mad means, "Why are we losing the wasteful pointless spending race to two countries with much more centralized governments?" then I think the answer is easy. The real question is why do you think you want to WIN a race that goes not to the swift, but to the dumb.

What I enjoyed, and what is hard to convey with links to individual articles, is that this cry for massive subsidies is on the same page, the SAME PHYSICAL PAGE, as this article that describes what happens when you pour money down Solyndrical rat holes.

(Nod to Anonyman)

Raleigh: America's Best City?

Raleigh is America's best city?

I happen to agree, mind you. Considering all the factors, I can't imagine a better place to live.

Neither Here Nor There

The Blonde sends this link to a story about maps of underwater internet connections.

I had never thought about this. Interesting.

Corollary to Sutton's Law

Willie Sutton is reputed to have answered the question, "Why do you rob banks?" with a dismissive, "That's where they keep the money."

The new corollary is "Why send the police to state legislatures?", with the answer being "that's where the criminals are!" An example from Rhode Island....

This is hardly isolated, though. All too often, lawmakers are lawbreakers, because they think they are above the law.

(Nod to Kindred)

Lawson EFW

Bob Lawson does a "teaser video."

And some other good info, also.

What If the Professor Died, and Nobody Noticed?

In my opinion, the University of Pennsylvania has the widest disparity in the country between the Econ Dept (one of ten best in the world) and the Poli Sci Dept (not one of the ten best in the Philadelphia SMSA).

But....don't you think that if a professor DIES, someone would notice? The UPenn Poli Sci Dept is so badly run they never even bothered to cancel the class.

Dorothy Parker, when told in analogous situation some dreary boor had died, asked, "How could they tell?" I guess they could NOT tell, since ol' HT is still listed as being alive on the web site.

(UPDATE: I have it on good authority that Prof. Teune was in fact a fine man, and a good man. So, the above is clearly unfair to him. My apologies...to Prof. Teune. The DoPS can screw.)
.

Linkulus

Here at KPC we sometimes go a little overboard on being critical. So how about some stuff I actually admire? Extremely quirky but in a really good way?

1. Anticlimacus, especially for picking up this.

2. Liquidity Preference, and this.

3. Token Libertarian Girl clears up some misconceptions.

4. Kindred Winecoff on why the problem with economics is economists.

Meesa lyka dees.

James Surowiecki has occupational dyslexia

In his latest column in the New Yorker, he calls me a political scientist and Doug Hibbs an economist!

OUCH.

Here is the article that I believe he's referencing, from the Journal of Law & Economics. We show that if you define electoral performance by incumbent return rates instead of party vote share, a wide range of economic conditions (inflation, unemployment, and income growth) affect House elections, and at least some of the effects are independent of whether or not the incumbent is of the same political party as the president.

It's one of my favorite papers (I mean of ones I've written or co-written). My co-author, Joe McGarrity did a ton of work on it, as we got a very daunting R&R offer from the journal and Joe really did the job on making the referees and Editor happy.

Flip The Bird

Libertarian bird movement growing!

No Banking Crisis, Eh?

Why Didn't Canada Have A Banking Crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or ...)?

NBER Working Paper, August 2011

Abstract: The financial crisis of 2008 engulfed the banking system of the United States and many large European countries. Canada was a notable exception. In this paper we argue that the structure of financial systems is path dependent. The relative stability of the Canadian banks in the recent crisis compared to the United States in our view reflected the original institutional foundations laid in place in the early 19th century in the two countries. The Canadian concentrated banking system that had evolved by the end of the twentieth century had absorbed the key sources of systemic risk—the mortgage market and investment banking—and was tightly regulated by one overarching regulator. In contrast the relatively weak, fragmented, and crisis prone U.S. banking system that had evolved since the early nineteenth century, led to the rise of securities markets, investment banks and money market mutual funds (the shadow banking system) combined with multiple competing regulatory authorities. The consequence was that the systemic risk that led to the crisis of 2008 was not contained.

Nod to Kevin Lewis

Fortune cookies entirely appropriate for these troubled times

Economists Answer the Call

Long term research agenda forecasts. Interesting.

Sol-gate: It just gets better!

Anonyman sends this link. It just keeps getting better and better. Robbing Peter and Paul to pay for a pure solar scam.

The problem may not be the bad loans, but rather the fibbing and the covering up, as always.

Brendan Nyhan said it was 'bout time for BHO to have a scandal. Good call, Brendan!

Classical Liberal Reading Group

Okay, CL fans, I need your help.

An extremely earnest and enthusiastic student just wrote to me, and asked about starting a reading group in Classical Liberalism. This student wants the movement to spread, and wants the readings to be good. And s/he also wants Progressive counterpoint.

So, let me ask the smartest people I know, the readers of KPC!

In comments, please give the BEST (most important, but also most readable) books or articles for these categories (these are my correspondent's categories, btw). And NO MORE THAN THREE per category, please. Have at you!

Classical Liberal authors of history: _____

Classical Liberal authors of the contemporary period: ____

And Progressive authors of history: _____

And Progressive authors of the contemporary period: _____

Privateerization

Overseas Trade and the Decline of Privateering

Henning Hillmann & Christina Gathmann
Journal of Economic History, September 2011, Pages 730-761

Abstract: Using a novel data set on 2,483 British privateering cruises, we show that state-licensed raiding of commercial vessels was a popular and flourishing business among merchants that took a serious toll on enemy trade from 1689 to 1815. Why, then, did privateering merchants gradually turn away from these profitable endeavors? We show that the expansion of overseas trade increased the opportunity costs for merchants and resulted in the decline of privateering. Our findings document that the decline of privateering had as much to do with an expanding maritime economy as with the rising naval power of the British state.

Nod to Kevin Lewis

Barack Obama comes out of the closet

Wow. President O is planning to ask for $1.5 Trillion in new tax revenues with no changes to Social Security and perhaps no changes to Medicare either.

Finally the bullsh*t is over and the cards are on the table.

You know, if this doesn't kick-start the economy, I don't know what will!!

Outside Money With Ideological Strings FINE, if it's lefty!

Southern Methodist University has decided that it will offer space for the ideological vision of a leftist donor. Here is the description of the program of bizarre indoctrination that students will receive as a poor substitute for an education.

Now, I do object to the fraudulent claim that this is a "major." It is an extended year round summer camp for kids who are too ideology-addled and lazy even to enroll in SMU's famously easy disciplinary majors. But, okay, caveat emptor. If you want to offer a crap major like that, and rich kids want to take it so they feel less guilty about their pointless trust-fund guided lives, fair enough.

What twists up my boxers into a slip-knot is the idea that all the media and other colleges are just fine with a "donor" buying a major at a university to serve that donor's own narrow ideological world-view. When the Kochs give money for legitimate courses, with legitimate instructors, it's time to cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of "Whore! You took money from the Kochs!"

But when lefties do it, it's all good. (Shakes head slowly, mystified).

You'll Wonder Where the Green Jobs Went, When You Learn What "Poison River" Meant!

How are those Green Jobs working out for ya, China?

If there is one consistent theme here at KPC, it is that we should be very, very happy to let the Chinese spend themselves into bankruptcy developing alternative energy technology which we will be able either to buy, or to use. Besides, we are doing a lot, more than we should be perhaps, already.

I wish no ill to the Chinese people. But one of the side effects of China's choice to develop "green" technology is that they are killing their environment.

(Nod to Anonyman, who is en fuego, producing lots of carbon)

Jersey Sure

This article is a bit funny. I have never seen the show "Jersey Shore" (or is that the "show" Jersey Shore ?), but I am assured that it is entertaining in a not-very-demanding way.

The disturbing thing is the comments. "Natale," obviously educated in the NJ public school system, thinks she has a smackdown argument.

Sorry NYMag, but this is a shitty article. The tax credit is based on only what the entire production SPENT in New Jersey.. camera rental, lodging, food, transportation.. all during filming that specific season.. the production is entitled to a 20% rebate based on locally hired crew and monies actually spent solely in NJ AND only if reviewed by a qualified CPA and then approved by the NJ Film Office.. they usually use it towards satisfying the NJ corporate business state tax. If the total refund was only $420,000, that means MTV spent $2.1 Million dollars ALONE in NJ (that counts as revenue for local businesses as well as job creation!!) .. do your homework.

So, the reason that it is okay to rebate a large chunk back to this horrible show is that it creates a lot of the tax dollars that are being rebated.

Um...Natale, how about this: lower the taxes in the first place. Then you wouldn't have to tax the companies that create jobs (and that is what ALL companies do, Natale, not just "Jersey Sore), and you would have more jobs.

(Nod to Anonyman, who has started referring to his ass as "The Distribution")

There's a program for that!

I am very happy to hear that all 1,100 employees of Solyndra have applied en masse for Federal Trade Adjustment Assistance. I really hope they get it. What's another $14 million amount to anyway?

Maybe congress can pass a "Federal Failure of Trade Adjustment Assistance Assistance" act to help these fine folks when their FTAA money runs out.

Hat Tip to Dip!

The Problem of Marginal Value and Surveys

The pursuit of happiness can be lonely

Iris Mauss et al., Emotion, forthcoming

Abstract: Few things seem more natural and functional than wanting to be happy. We suggest that, counter to this intuition, valuing happiness may have some surprising negative consequences. Specifically, because striving for personal gains can damage connections with others and because happiness is usually defined in terms of personal positive feelings (a personal gain) in western contexts, striving for happiness might damage people's connections with others and make them lonely. In 2 studies, we provide support for this hypothesis. Study 1 suggests that the more people value happiness, the lonelier they feel on a daily basis (assessed over 2 weeks with diaries). Study 2 provides an experimental manipulation of valuing happiness and demonstrates that inducing people to value happiness leads to relatively greater loneliness, as measured by self-reports and a hormonal index (progesterone). In each study, key potential confounds, such as positive and negative affect, were ruled out. These findings suggest that wanting to be happy can make people lonely.

Um....if everyone valued "happiness" equally, but if happiness has diminishing marginal utility, among other goals, then the most lonely people would report the greatest marginal utility from increased happiness. People who already have quite a bit of happiness would value it much less, at the margin.

And that's all this survey is getting at: marginal utility of happiness. So, it's not true that people who value happiness are more lonely. Instead, lonely people have little happiness, and so at the margin value it more.

Sheesh.

(nod to Kevin Lewis)

The Evolution of Overconfidence

The evolution of overconfidence

Dominic Johnson & James Fowler
Nature, 15 September 2011, Pages 317–320

Abstract: Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health to sports, business and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence — believing you are better than you are in reality — is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morale, resolve, persistence or the credibility of bluffing, generating a self-fulfilling prophecy in which exaggerated confidence actually increases the probability of success. However, overconfidence also leads to faulty assessments, unrealistic expectations and hazardous decisions, so it remains a puzzle how such a false belief could evolve or remain stable in a population of competing strategies that include accurate, unbiased beliefs. Here we present an evolutionary model showing that, counterintuitively, overconfidence maximizes individual fitness and populations tend to become overconfident, as long as benefits from contested resources are sufficiently large compared with the cost of competition. In contrast, unbiased strategies are only stable under limited conditions. The fact that overconfident populations are evolutionarily stable in a wide range of environments may help to explain why overconfidence remains prevalent today, even if it contributes to hubris, market bubbles, financial collapses, policy failures, disasters and costly wars.

I don't see this as very counterintuitive. Being an alpha male is very stressful, and you die young. (I say "you" because I am an omega male). But you get crazy sex action in the meantime. bouncybouncybouncy. "Fitness" is not the same as "happiness," at all. Mr. Darwin didn't really care if animals were happy; that didn't play much of a role in the whole "nature red in tooth and claw" theory.

The problem is that our last two Presidents, first GWB and now BHO, are freakishly overconfident even by the standards of human males. Neither is capable of imagining that anyone actually disagrees with them, unless the disagreer is evil or a stone idiot.

(Nod to the Kevin Lewis)

Ford

There are 4 Fords in the Mungowitz driveway. If you wanted to know.

Fudgesicle

Nicholas Cage recounts his experience of waking up, and seeing a naked man at the foot of the bed, eating a fudgesicle.

This apropos his new movie Trespass Reviews are mixed. But the fudgesicle story is just fine.

Rugger Hugger

Just months after marrying Queen Elizabeth II’s granddaughter Zara Phillips, the captain of England’s rugby team, Mike Tindall, was allegedly caught kissing and groping another blonde at a dwarf-throwing contest in New Zealand. Tindall and his team were celebrating a victory over Argentina in a World Cup match when the boozy evening apparently turned adulterous. A spokesman for the Rugby Football Union tried to play down the incident, saying that the queen’s in-law was simply “relaxing after a tough match.” The manager of the bar in question defended the players, too: “They were great lads, not throwing the midgets,” he wrote on Facebook.
(News source)

If your standard for "great lads" is "not throwing the midgets," then your standards need some upward revision.

So, I wondered about the spurned wife, Zara Phillips. Here is a picture of her. Unfortunately she seems unaware that a truly enormous Luna moth has landed on her head.
So perhaps she won't learn of her hubby's grope-n-hope down in Kiwiland.

(nod to Gerardo)

(UPDATE: Gerardo notes that in fact "not throwing the midgets" is a good bright line rule, a one way test. He further points out that REAL friends can be counted on to take you out for a jar or two, if you are depressed, or sad, or dead.

.

Attn: West coast KPC fans

I, Angus will be giving a talk tomorrow at Claremont College.

Title is "Beyond Twin Peaks: Development and Polarization in the World Income Distribution".

The time is 10:30 - 12:00 the place is Kravis 367.

Be sure and say hi if you are a KPC reader.

Gumby Fail

You have likely seen the Gumby Fail robbery. The news story.

But there is more. The cops said, "You are Gumby, dammit!" and arrested him.

Madcap Electoral College Hi-Jinks: Remember the Colorado

Them wascawwy Wepubwicans! Gonna take Penn proportional in the Electoral College! And the "fair and balanced" folks at NY Mag had this to say:

Pennsylvania, like every other state, is free to dole out its electoral votes however it wants. Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature as well as the governorship, so if the GOP wants to switch over to a congressional-district apportionment system, all the Democrats can really do is whine. As Nick Baumann points out in Mother Jones today, the same thing could be repeated in other blue states across the country.

Democrats, meanwhile, don't have the ability to retaliate by splitting up the electoral votes of traditionally red states.

Democrats, Democrats, whatchagoando, whatchagoando when Cantor comes for you? Poor defenseless little things!

Except that our brave reporters didn't mention that the Dems have tried this same crap several times, most recently in Colorado. That paragon of virtue Kos was all excited, back then, in 2004. It was GREAT news, a brilliant strategy.

How come it's cheating if the Repubs do it? I agree it's a bad idea, but this seems like pretty selective reporting.

Germany's role in the PIIGS bailout in one easy collage

I think I'm in trouble

Here's an unbelievable story from San Francisco. A husband goes missing, the wife never reports it to the cops, then in February, the husband's body turns up buried underneath a new barbeque the wife built in the backyard (Jimmy Hoffa style). Today, it is announced that no charges will be filed against the wife!

I am now viewing Mrs. Angus's proposal for us to rebuild and extend our backyard deck in a whole new light.

Oh Vladdy, is there ANYTHING you can't do?

Awesome photo essay on the Austin Powers of Dictators, Vladimir Putin.

Highly recommended.

A foolproof plan to balance the budget and stimulate the economy

As you may know, one of the ideas tossed around for dealing with the debt limit was to have the Treasury mint a trillion $ coin and then have the Fed "buy" it from them.

It is not well known, but totally true that Congress has already put the Fed on such a path since 2005 with an extra economic stimulus twist.

The Fed is mandated to buy new "presidential" dollar coins every year from the Treasury. It costs $0.30 to make them so Treasury is making bank. Plus, no one wants to use them so the Fed has to find/build storage facilities to house the unwanted coins.

I am not making this up!

Currently the Fed is holding over a billion of these coins in 28 different storage facilities.

People, all we need to do in these troubled times is double down on this excellent starter program. Make the Fed buy, say a trillion of these coins every year and store them.

That's $700 billion a year in new revenue and lots of construction jobs building new storage facilities. Plus those facilities will need managers, forklift operators, maintenance workers, security guards...

Hey, maybe the Treasury could make the coins even bigger!

I really don't see what could go wrong here.

Hat tip to 7im.

Hugo Chavez: doin' work

People, Hugo is getting it done down in Venezuela. It's only September (and he's taken some sick leave) but he's already "nationalized" 401 companies this year. Plus he's withdrawing from the World Bank's dispute settlement forum used to deal with claims by foreign investors.

He's also working to get Venezuelan assets in friendlier hands, transferring billions of dollars in deposits from US and Euro banks to banks in Russia, China, and Brazil (wow, Brazil, nice work to make Chavez associate you with Russia and China and not the "free world").

And of course there's his plan to airlift Venezuela's gold back to Caracas.

The idea is to make Venezuela's financial assets un-freezable.

I feel very sorry for the younger people of Venezuela. But the older ruling elites of the country brought Hurricane Hugo down on themselves and their descendants with their decades of incompetent, corrupt, short-sighted & elitist governance.

Combo Meal! Not the Onion Meets the Grand Game!

This story is tremendous. It's not the Onion, and yet it could be.

Let's go with the Grand Game thing, though.

1. If there is ANY place that should have really big tables, it is White Castle.
2. "I'm not humongous..." Sir, if you weigh 290 lbs and you cannot wedge your giant ass into a table at a fast food restaurant, you are, in fact, humongous.
3. He is outraged because "the cheese was extra!"
4. He is so mad at White Castle that he is boycotting! By which he means... he sends his wife to go get the burgers! Nice boycott.

There's lots more. Enjoy.

(Nod to David Skarbek, who eats like a freakin' girl)