I don't think you are TRYING hard enough

Fuel companies fined for their petty refusal to an additive in gasoline.

Look, the law says they have to do it. Stop fooling around, guys.

Of course, their lame excuse is that the additive does not actually exist.

The answer is that if your government is smart enough to imagine what it wants, the least you can do is actually make the stuff.

(Nod to Anonyman)

Hashtag of the day

People, check out the tweets at #ronpaultroofs

Here's one I especially liked:

"Ron Paul gave George Washington Carver his first peanut." 

and another:

"If you smoke like Ron Paul smokes, then you're high, like, every day."

Why Is This So Difficult?

Three suggestions about things you never say, or always say, or should say, to a potential mentor.

This week...THIS WEEK... I have gotten messages or had phone conversations that violated all three.

In particular, I suggested we meet at 10 am. Two different people wanting advice said, "No, that's too early for me. Can we do it some other time?"

Sure, we can do it during that time when I otherwise would have been writing you a pretty good letter of recommendation. Because now it is NOT going to be a good letter of recommendation.

Just read this. The guy has it right. And hopefully you are angling for being mentored by somebody WAY better than I am anyway, so it will actually matter!

Get your money out of PIMCO....

....because its CEO, the ubiquitous Mohamed El-Erian is a nincompoop!

Check out this gibberish in today's WSJ:

"Fat tails"—the technical term for the extremes of an outcome distribution—are risks for any global system that loses its anchors. Economies and markets function differently, companies and households feel unsettled, and policy measures become less effective.

Oh my. Where to begin.

First, "fat tails" is not a "technical term". The technical term is excess kurtosis. Fat tails is the colloquial, layman's term.

Second, fat tails is decidedly NOT a term for "the extremes of an outcome distribution"! The normal distribution is an outcome distribution. It does not have "fat tails". In fact it is the lack of fat tails in the normal distribution that lead so many models to go astray

How can this dude spew nonsense like this and get away with it? He's failing Stats 101.  It must be the 'stache.

Finally, the second sentence is even weirder than the first. I cannot make out what he is saying. Is he trying to say that recent events have changed the shape of the "outcome distribution"? Or that when we realized the outcome distribution had fatter tails than was previously thought, people changed their behaviors? The second interpretation at least makes some sense.

My Guy Tom Ferguson Analyzes Rick Santorum

From Alternet.... Tom makes a lot of sense.

Blind mole rat.... heh. Heh heh.

Americans Against Logic

Okay, so a tactical tip: If the Jon Stewart show wants to interview you, say no. Because not only will you be reamed, you will be complicit in your own reaming. I cannot understand how JS can find such self-important idiots. The Republican here... wow.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

I think Republicans are hypocrites, yes I do.
I think Republicans are hypocrites, how 'bout YOU?

(Nod to Anonyman)

Faking It

The Economics of Faking Ecstasy, Hugo Mialon, Economic Inquiry, January 2012, Pages 277–285

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a signaling model of rational lovemaking. In the
act of lovemaking, a man and a woman send each other possibly deceptive signals about their true state of ecstasy. For example, if one of the partners is not in ecstasy, then he or she may decide to fake it. The model predicts that (1) a higher cost of faking lowers the probability of faking; (2) middle-aged and old men are more likely to fake than young men; (3) young and old women are more likely to fake than middle-aged women; and (4) love, formally defined as a mixture of altruism and demand for togetherness, increases the likelihood of faking. The predictions are tested with data from the 2000 Orgasm Survey. Besides supporting the model's predictions, the data also reveal an interesting positive relationship between education and the tendency to fake in both men and women.

So, I wondered a couple of things.
1. This would not apply just to het couples. Is it different for gay men or for lesbian women?
2. It took me a minute to realize that the "2000 Orgasm Survey" was referring to a year, not a benchmark.
3. I asked the LMM, "You never fake, do you!" She said, "Of course not! Then she went upstairs and closed the door, but I could still hear her laughing.

Lagniappe: Here is a video of the author presenting the above paper...


(Nod to Kevin Lewis, who never fakes)

Can Men and Women Be Just Friends

On the Utah State U campus, a team of crack investigators ask the question, "Can men and women 'just' be friends?"

Women say "yes." Men laugh at the very idea. Men are not good people.



Now, the Bishop and I know that married men can be just friends with women.

First, we fear our wives enough to know we had better not even think about anyone else.

Second, if we piss off our wives, we are going to be "just friends" even in our houses for several nights. "Honey?" "Don't touch me..."

(Nod to the Blonde, who is not surprised by any of this.)

Regulatory Capture Video

KPC friend Susan Dudley on regulatory capture. Nicely done, ma'am!

D-Bro Loses His Mind

David Brooks says this:

"If you believe in the centrality of family, you have to have a government that ... SUPPLIES WAGE SUBSIDIES TO MEN TO MAKE THEM MARRIAGEABLE." (ellipsis/emphasis added to make sure you don't miss it.)

You can look it up. He says that.

Thanks to Jim D for pointing this out. I had missed it. I thought it was just a run-of- the mill paean to Santorum. The collective values, the communitarianism, that's all fine.

But D-Bro raised it to a whole other level. We have to PAY men to get married. He actually comes close to saying, "If you are getting the milk for free, why buy the cow?"

Funny or Die

We need a new scare for funny.

This, for example, is veryveryvery funny, and outrageous.

But then this is even funnier.

And the commercial in that clip above, starting just after 3 minutes in, with Mike Tyson as Herman Cain...we need a new word. Mr. Tyson totally nails it.

Made me laugh, it did.

More good news

Wow! The December 2011 jobs report is out.  200,000 net new jobs. Pretty good. Unemployment rate falls to 8.5%. 

Good news for president O. 

 

Surge Pricing

Tremendous example of the complexity of price as a moral principle and a rationing device. Courtesy of Reihan Salam.

Long, Huang Eat Pussy, Long Goes Down, Huang Hung

Wealthy Chinese man dies after eating poisoned stew made from slow-boiled cat.

A Chinese billionaire is dead after apparently ingesting some slow-boiled cat meat stew — though it wasn’t the cat meat that killed him.

Police in southern China have detained a local official on suspicion of poisoning the stew at the restaurant where the two were eating in Guangdong province on Dec. 23.

Agriculture official Huang Guang, billionaire Long Liyuan and a third diner were sharing a cat meat hot pot — a local delicacy — when Huang allegedly dropped some toxic herbs into the stew, the BBC reported.

Long, who ran a forestry company, was taken to the hospital after feeling dizzy and sick and later suffered a cardiac arrest. Huang and the third diner were hospitalized as well, though both survived.

According toFlickr user MowT the New York Times, Huang had apparently eaten some of the poisoned stew himself to avoid suspicion.

Police detained Huang on Dec. 30, after discovering evidence that Huang had embezzled money from Long.

Police initially took the restaurant’s owner into custody on suspicion of serving unsanitary food, according to the BBC. Long’s family, not believing he died simply of food poisoning, offered a $16,000 reward for information and insisted police keep the case open.

(Nod to the Blonde, who of course was mostly all excited about the title. I think she rented this movie last week.)

(UPDATE: Yes, I was thinking of Tom G. when I wrote this)

would you believe?

Would you believe me if i told you that, before roasting and eating that marshmallow, Kanzi the bonobo had (a) collected the wood, (b) built the fire (c) grilled up some burgers, and (d) ate them?

How about if I told you after he was done that he put the fire out with a bottle of water?

Well, it's all true!

Kanzi apparently lives in Iowa and to my mind is much more qualified for the GOP presidential nomination than any of the other "primitive creatures" who just left the State.

Okay, NOW You Can Kill Eagles (But Not Bats), To Show You Love Gaia

So, if all you are doing is building a factory that will create hundreds of jobs, and produce something people want to buy, you will be blocked by the Endangered Species Act. In fact, you may even have to close an existing golf course, because the nice froggies might not like it.

But if you want to build a "wind farm," which actually is a net loss of energy (counting the costs of construction and decommissioning), and produces almost zero jobs, then the feds will happily WAIVE the ESA. Kill all the eagles you want! (But not bats, apparently. Interesting.)

Now, in my view, the ESA is a death sentence, a stupid law that kills more creatures than it saves, by far. But still, if you believe the ESA works, why suspend it for such a marginal "industry" as wind?

Unless of course the whole thing is fake and all you really care about is the costly signal of worshipping Gaia, the Earth Mother? In that case, building an idiotic temple of wind and sacrificing eagles to Gaia actually count twice. We worship you, Gaia! And higher costs mean we love you more! Abraham was only willing to sacrifice his son. WE are willing to sacrifice eagles!

(Nod to the Blonde)

Great Essay by Ta-Nehisi Coates

It's in the Atlantic and it's called "Why do so few blacks study the civil war?"

It rejects the idea that the war was a tragedy; that is was a result of a failure to compromise, or of misunderstandings, the romanticizing of the gentlemanly southern generals.

Money quote:

For African Americans, war commenced not in 1861, but in 1661, when the Virginia Colony began passing America’s first black codes, the charter documents of a slave society that rendered blacks a permanent servile class and whites a mass aristocracy. They were also a declaration of war.

The final part of Charles Mann's excellent 1493 gives a good overview of the war between Europeans and slaves fought across the Americas.

Gun Control, Okie style

When faced with a home invasion, this Oklahoma woman, grabbed the family shotgun and pistol, called 911 for directions, and then shot and killed the person who kicked down the door to her home.

The intruders seemed to be targeting her house because her husband had just passed away.

Mrs. Angus and I go target shooting at a local firing range, and the gender mix there is easily 30% female.

By the way, Mrs. Angus is a pretty good shot!

John D. Lewis

An energetic and compelling speech by my friend John Lewis, on July 4, 2009, in Boston. If you get to give a speech in Boston for the Tea Party on July 4, you are pretty cool.



And he was pretty cool. But John Lewis died this morning at 7 am. Esophageal cancer hammered him, as brave as he was. And he was very, very brave.

This is not a good day. I'd rather think of him like he was, on that day in Boston.

UPDATE: Two more good memories.

1. JDL's terrific lecture this fall in my "Econ for Non-Majors" class. Excellent talk on Greek and Roman views of exchange. He could barely speak. And yet there he was, bustin' it for the kids.

2. JDL's also terrific HuffPo piece on the deficit (Thanks to Dan Green for the reminder)

The Maurader

I'm going to guess that admiration for this car (and this clip) will largely be divided along gender lines.

(Nod to Herr Fuchs)

Not the Onion?

For our occasional "Not the Onion" feature...which of the following is a fake news story?

1. EEOC says that requiring people to have a high school diploma, or to be able to read, violates the Americans with Disabilities Act. After all, idiots need jobs, too! And there are only 100 seats in the US Senate.

2. N. Koreans called on to provide "human shield" for Kim Jong (Big) Un. Presumably, the herd of shielders will also be available to be butchered for food, in case Big Un gets peckish. The story does also note that there is a "burning issue" of food shortage. What's a Big Un to do?

3. New Fox network reality show to choose candidate for President of Iraq. The winner will receive $1 million in campaign cash, and several truckloads of dates to use as bribes.

4. Solar plant in Idaho unable to generate enough power to supply even itself. Utility company is going to cut off electricity to so-called "power" plant, because they can't pay the bill for all the electricity they are using up in the process of not generating electricity.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Class dismissed

This sentence both confused and delighted me:

Many people, including me, have decided that the overclass poses the most serious threat today to the middle class in the United States because it markets the assertion that the underclass is the source of all our problems.

The author is Nancy Folbre, the source is the NY Times Economix blog.

I ran it through various translators and the best I could come up with was, I hate rich people and you should too. 

Anyone else?  Bueller?

 

Iowa: The Caucuses Mountains

I was on the Takeaway yesterday, with my pal Celeste Headley. She shamelessly promotes the (admittedly miraculous) fact that the D-Lions are in the playoffs.

And we also talk about Iowa. Click and play, if you want. It's about 7 mins.

Smiles: Fake? And can you tell?

Poker faces often have "tells;" so do smiles.

Spot The Fake Smile
(be sure to click the button to watch the smile.)

This experiment is designed to test whether you can spot the difference between a fake smile and a real one. It has 20 questions and should take you 10 minutes. It is based on research by Professor Paul Ekman, a psychologist at the University of California. Each video clip will take approximately 15 seconds to load on a 56k modem and you can only play each smile once.

In case you are wondering, they did it by taking real smiles that occurred spontaneously in interviews, or by telling the person to smile. Obviously you can't say, "Give us a genuine smile, now!"

Bizarrely, I got 18 out of 20 correct. Had a bit of luck, I expect. But that's better classification than I would have expected. Only missed two, one F that was a G, and one G that was an F.

How do YOU fare?

(Nod to the Blonde, who never fakes it)

Ballot Access Kerfuffles

A nice mess you have gotten us into this time, Stanley!

Gov. Perry, of Texas, is all upset because (gasp!) voters might not get to vote for the candidate of their choice! He failed to get the signatures required to get on the ballot in Virginia.

I have to agree with him. That's a dumb law, a ridiculous and arbitrary distinction on the ability to compete for office. Here is the complaint (from BAN, with thanks)

But then how come the Guv-meister has not said a peep about the fact that Texas, the state where I hear he has some pull, has made a complete hash of ballot access? Et tu, Ricky?

Some more background from Brian I, here...

it might take half the country

North Korea (i.e. Kim Jong Un) has called for its citizens to form a human shield around its leader (i.e. Kim Jong Un)!

Given that many North Koreans eat dirt and sticks, and that KJU looks like this:

I am wondering, how many North Koreans does it take to make a human shield for "The Great Consumer"?

I am waiting for KJU's catchphrase to come out. I loved his dad's: "Let's eat two meals a day"

Bien venido a la Selva

Trying Blogsy on the iPad

This app claims that it's ez to do links, images, and embeds.  So lets give it a try. 

Here's a photo of a beautiful tree:

This post from LeBron caused Mrs. A to insist that I read the book called Beautiful Tree Forthwith. 

And here's a video Mrs. A took of me playing with Mr. 2T last year about this time. 

It's not exactly easy. The built in browser to find links is small and clunky. Images and embeds don't always go where you want them. But it's better than anything else I've seen for the iPad. If I could go on short trips with just the iPad instead of laptop and kindle, that would be great. 

To Prevent Abuse, Create a Cartel?

Anonyman sends this remarkable article. Excerpt:

While the Food and Drug Administration monitors the safety and supply of the drugs, which are sold both as generics and under brand names like Ritalin and Adderall, the Drug Enforcement Administration sets manufacturing quotas that are designed to control supplies and thwart abuse. Every year, the D.E.A. accepts applications from manufacturers to make the drugs, analyzes how much was sold the previous year and then allots portions of the expected demand to various companies.

So, to "prevent abuse," what the gubmint is doing is protecting cartel profits, even in a GENERIC drug. And of course if there is a shortage, that means that rich people who want to abuse the drug will still get it, but poor people who want to use the drug legally can just go screw themselves.

I would like to propose that before you work for the US federal government you have to pass a high-school level econ class. Is that too much to ask?

Rob Kendall Gets Sworn In

Now that Rob Kendall has been sworn in, he may get sworn at.

But for today, he is the newest member of the Brownsburg, IN town council, representing ward #3.

I enjoyed the part where the commenter compared the speech to the Gettysburg Address. The commenter said, "That was NOT the Gettysburg Address."

And so, it begins. But seriously, good luck to Rob! We need more ambiguously Libertarian Republicans in this world.

Don't know why, I love you like I do.....

Not So Much Predictions

I was going to call this predictions.

But it's more like "fun resources so YOU can make predictions." Here we go:

1. There are lots of models that predict share of two party vote in Presidential elections, based on the economy. Here is one that's fun to fool around with...

With plausible assumptions, that would imply that the Dems will get 49.7 -- 50.5 of the two party vote in November. Given the way the Electoral College "counts" votes, that would likely mean a narrow win for the Repubs. Of course that depends on who the Repub nominee is. But if you want to go strictly by the "economy determines whether incumbent Prez wins" theory, right now it's a toss up.

On the other hand, if there is 4% growth in the first two quarters of 2012, you would get a 53.5% vote in the states, and that is close to a landslide. So, the point is, to the extent the models matter, 2% growth and Obama loses. 4% growth and Obama wins in November.

This map is VERY fun for doing simulations, state by state, in Electoral College. (of course, the fact that I think that is fun may explain why I never had dates in high school)

2. Conference Board is predicting 1.5% growth for 2012. If that is right, then Obama loses. Again depending on who the Repub nominee is, of course.

3. Any prediction, based on any reasonable assumptions about the economy, predict that Repubs keep the House, and maybe even add a little to their majority. Redistricting will help here, because many state legislatures were taken over in 2010 election, and the winner redraws the maps.

4. Ben Nelson's (D-Neb) retirement puts the range of outcomes for the Senate at 51 D - 49 R to 47 D -- 53 R. But these are not equally likely. Most likely is 50 D -- 50 R, with VP Biden breaking tie votes in favor of Democrats. So, if I had to guess, Dems retain control of Senate, though only by the thinnest of margins.

5. Consumer confidence: on the economy, seems on the upswing. Still very weak. As long as the Euro is all covered with Greece, very scary situation. Our banks bought up a LOT of PIGS sovereign debt, with MF securities being only the most greedy. Other institutions are lined up like dominoes. World economy could get hammered here. That would be bad.

6. Congressional job approval is at its lowest level EVER, 11%. The House and Senate are each profoundly dysfunctional. But "we hate Congress, though we love our Congressman" is the old saying. The disgust with Congress rarely translates into voting out incumbents. Each election is separate, and based on personality and local factors. So the so-called "triple flip" where people vote against incumbents in Prez, House, and Senate races is very unlikely. People say they are mad, and then they line up and vote for incumbents.

7. Presidential approval is very bad also, but still in the mid 40% range. The difference is that we do vote on the Presidency, directly, in a way we do not on Congress. The rule of thumb is that if your negatives, of "disapprove" numbers, are above 45% you are toast. Right now, President Obama is toast, by that measure.

Oh, and happy new year, all you KPC fans! I am on leave until September, so I shall be blogging from many places around the globe, and I'm looking forward to it.

A Year in Review

I thought about doing a "year in review" post.

But I couldn't have come close to doing it this well.

So, with props to KPC friend Prof. Dave Collum, the year in review!

RP's Xmas List

My guy T-Schall will likely not be on Ron Paul's Xmas list.

Article from Bal Sun here (reprinted pretty widely)

Now, full disclosure, T-Schall is my student, back from UNC-CH days. We have published together. So I am hardly neutral on this topic.

But it seems to me that Dr. Schaller has this right. The attraction of Dr. Paul has always escaped me. Yes, he is clearly right about several things. But he is wrong, and not just a little bit wrong, about a lot of important things.

Overall, I am grateful to Dr. Paul. He has been brave and consistent about advancing his views. But the people who come up to me and say, "Oh, you must like _________, he's a libertarian," only to have me stare at them in horror....you people are crazy.

Here is a partial list of people you goofballs think are libertarians. They can call themselves what they want, of course. But they are NOT libertarians.

Neil Boortz
Glen Beck
Ayn Rand
Ron Paul

So, when one of this group is discussed, or lauded, or is for some other reason in the news, please don't say, "Oh, you must be happy."

What DOES make me happy? Harry Browne's New Year's Day Resolutions. Harry Browne was a Libertarian.

Fearless Predictions

Here we go:

US:

Obama re-elected

US unemployment rate no higher than 7.5% by the end of 2012, real GDP growth > 2.5% for 2012

Republicans keep House and barely get Senate

Heat defeat Thunder in NBA finals

Albert Pujols will be AL MVP

World:

Putin ain't gonna be President of Russia for 12 more years

Assad Jr. gets the boot in 2012

The Euro zone makes it through 2012 intact

China's 2012 growth rate will be < 7.5%

Let me re-phrase

Thanks for your comments on my previous post. I am interested in being able to use the iPad for blogging when I travel to avoid having to lug a laptop around so I have been experimenting with it.

I have an external keyboard, so typing is not the problem.

I am finding that I can't put in hyper-links to other webpages or include images in my posts either when I log in to Blogger via safari on the iPad or when I use the Blogger iPhone app on the iPad.

It's hard for me to accept that there's not an app that makes blogging from the iPad as easy as using Blogger on a laptop.

But I guess that's what the universe is telling me?

Blogging on the iPad

So far it sucks. Any suggestions??

35 >> 25

Big fun last night in the OKC:

Some partial year end good news!

People, it looks like both the 45 cents / gallon subsidy for domestic ethanol AND the 54 cents / gallon tariff on imported ethanol are both dead as of January 1!

Amazing. I guess when the economics actually lines up with the political correctness, good things can actually happen.

Sadly though, the ethanol mandate (how many gallons of ethanol must be blended into gasoline each year) is still alive and well. At least it can be filled by cheaper and less environmentally wasteful Brazilian sugar-cane ethanol.

Maybe someday, we can just have a Pigouvian tax on carbon and drop the command and control BS. Not holding my breath though.

Education: yer doin it wrong

In this Times piece on young women leaving the labor force to increase their human capital, the author focuses in on one such person, getting an MA from the university of Denver.

The piece returns to her at the end and causally notes that, when added to her BA debt, the young lady will be $200,000 in the hole when she graduates!!

Given that her BA was from Wartburg College and her MA is in "strategic communications", I hope this person got a tremendous amount of enjoyment from going to school because as a financial investment, this stinks.

It's quite likely that she has consigned herself to an adult life lived out entirely behind the financial 8-ball.

Is the CIA giving Latin American leftists cancer?

Hugo Chavez says that he wouldn't doubt it one little bit.

He says he got the notion from Fidel:

"Fidel always told me, 'Chavez take care. These people have developed technology. You are very careless. Take care what you eat, what they give you to eat ... a little needle and they inject you with I don't know what,'"

It's easy to laugh at this but we actually did try to kill Castro, didn't we? And we helped kill Allende in Chile. And there was Guatemala in 1954, and the Contras in Nicaragua, and "Operation Fury" in Grenada. People, we occupied Haiti from 1915 to 1934.

Hell we stole Panama from Colombia and huge chunks of Mexico too in the Mexican American War.

Basically the US has been a huge bully / PITA/ jerk to Latin America, at least since 1846.

It's not that hard to see where Hugo is coming from.

Pour some (corn) sugar on me!

People, the nefarious corn growers want to change the name of high fructose corn syrup to "corn sugar".

Those bastards!

Luckily, we have a noble group mobilizing to stop the cornies' nefarious plan:

The sugar growers!

Yes, the Sugar Association is suing the Corn Refiners Association to stop the name change. If we could somehow get the Cotton Association in on this farce we'd have the trifecta of US agricultural policy stupidity.

It's all over now, baby blue?

Adjusting for inflation, real house prices are back to where they were in 2000. If we are not at the bottom, we have got to be pretty close, no? Could it possibly be a good time to buy?

(clic the pic for an even more vertiginous image)

Germany: Sorry, I gave at the State

The US is the number 1 most charitable nation in the world.

Germans like to see themselves as "giving," but of course when it comes to voluntary giving they actually suck. In fact, most of Europe "gives" by taking money from people at gunpoint. That would be "stealing," friends.

Germany is #26.

Of course, I suppose Germany could claim they gave at the Euro. Still, strong evidence that Tocqueville was right, and state action crowds out private initiative and personal moral responsibility. So, for all my German friends who jabber about how generous Germans are and how stingy American are... how do you like us now?

Germany and France Discuss the Future of the EU

Have been wanting to try to make a XtraNormal video.

This is my first effort. It's time consuming, but pretty fun.

Germany and France discuss the future of the EU in a closed door meeting, with a frank exchange of views...

Germany and France Discuss the EU
by: Michael_Munger

Roll over and see what you can do!

Recently saw this ad, on a site.

Not easy to read, but it says, "Menopause made intercourse dry and painful? Roll over to see what you can do!" And then, I shudder to think why, the picture of a doorknob.

However, to be fair, it made me look twice. Perhaps that is the real function of advertising, yes?

Warning: Contains Graphic Content

After this quite delightful little kerfuffle, Zach Wiener was kind enough to send me the original of this cartoon. Interesting Rorschach test: we learn something about YOU, from who you think is being mocked. This issue discussed at greater length here. (Hint: Zach always mocks everyone, including himself. He is not really a fan of false certitude, or ideologies. Check the crest here...)

Anyway, I got this for Christmas:

In the place of honor, right over the throne, so that men are obliged to stare it, and women will have plenty of time to look at it, too, while they are doing whatever it is that they do that takes 45 minutes in there. (Not very high quality, it's a cellphone pic, so if you want the original comic it's here...)

Way too early instant analysis of the Thunder

One game against a bad team (yes Orlando is a quite bad team) isn't much to go on, but here goes!

The Thunder had (at least) 4 questions going into the season.

1. Would Russell Westbrook take another step forward to becoming an efficient point guard?

2. Could Kendrick Perkins return to his pre-injury level of play?

3. Is James Harden the real deal?

4. Is Serge Ibaka the real deal?

Well, 50% fails most tests, but it does get you into the hall of fame in baseball.

Perkins was awesome. After a bit of a slow start, he did the job on Dwight Howard, ran around like a crazy man, and just generally was a badass. My favorite thing about Perk is how mad he gets when a TEAMMATE gets a rebound away from him.

Harden showed a lot more calmness and confidence. He knows what he can do and he looked ready to be a star.

Westbrook had 7 turnovers and shot 6-17. I have to say though that I am a huge Westbrook fan and I'm hoping for big improvements here. He probably needed training camp more than any other Thunder player.

Ibaka was a no-show. I don't know if he'd rather still be playing in Spain, but he was lost and totally ineffective out there. He was scary bad.


To switch gears, the Magic stink!

Hedo is done. He can't move. He and Anderson can hit wide open 3's when they don't have to move, but little else. If it wasn't for Ibaka's hideous defensive effort and the Thunders perverse penchant for fouling J.J. Redick, Orlando wouldn't have gotten 75 points!

The Magic have both Jason AND Quentin Richardson on their team! In the NBA we call that "two Richardsons too many".

I don't think they were both on the floor at the same time, but if that happens, basketball will never be the same.

Christmas Wisdom from LeBron

"good regulation should take account of our rather extreme ignorance. That means emphasizing the more general protections, as embodied in a ready supply of safe liquid assets, rather than obsessing over the regulatory micromanagement of particular bank activities."

More here.

Merry Christmas from Angus & Mungowitz

An Italian-American Christmas Greeting

With all proper respect and much love to Jenn Musirolla, who posted this video. I put it up for the enjoyment of KPC friend Shirley, who has lived it.



The menu at the Mungerella House tonight:

Before:
salami, olives
various cheeses
shrimp cocktail
hot peppers
bread

The main event:
calimari in a white wine and garlic sauce
meatballs in homemade sauce (cooked for two days with stew beef and hot sausage and sweet sausage)
melanzane parmigiana
pasta
broccoli in sauce
cauliflower breaded and fried in olive oil
fried fish
bread for boonging

After:
Salad with olive oil and vinegar
More bread

After after:
Cookies
Coffee
Sambuca

Can I be an honorary gorilla too?

Mrs. Angus and I have been on 4 mountain gorilla treks and saw this same group of gorillas in Bwindi this summer. However, we had to hike for over 3 hours to reach them. This video is AMAZING. OK, the blathering guy for the first minute is a pain, but it gets real good around the 1:55 mark and just keeps getting better from there.

If I ever go again, I'll be sure to wear a black shirt and have plenty of gray hair (one way or another).

A Recurrent Meme: Flying Genitals

Last week I posted on the outrage over flying vulvas in England.

This week....a flying male organ disturbs a press conference in Russia.


Security did have to take it seriously, because it could easily have squirted out flammable liquid. (What? I'm just accepting the metaphor! If this were Batman, that's what would have happened.)

Not very sophisticated. Still...I was amused.

Coolest.Speakers.Ever.

source is here.

The Maxtrix: 1890s edition

As in medicine, so in development?

Jonah Lehrer has a great article in Wired documenting the difficulty of truly understanding causal forces.

Here is a representative section:

The story of torcetrapib is a tale of mistaken causation. Pfizer was operating on the assumption that raising levels of HDL cholesterol and lowering LDL would lead to a predictable outcome: Improved cardiovascular health. Less arterial plaque. Cleaner pipes. But that didn’t happen.

Such failures occur all the time in the drug industry.


To recap. HDL is the "good" cholesterol and LDL the "bad". Pfizer found a drug that did what the quote describes, but it turned out to kill subjects in the phase III trial and ended up costing the company billions in market capitalization.

In my opinion, much of macro development advice has worked the same way.

Experts observe that successful countries exhibit qualities A, B & C. Developing countries are advised, subsidized, threatened to emulate the successful countries on these attributes. But the patients do not improve!

Education, Institutions, "getting the prices right", openness to trade, the list goes on of macro advice given and to a surprising extent taken by the developing world, without the implicitly promised results.*

The only real difference in the medical and developmental analogy is that Pfizer lost billions of dollars due to their misreading of cause and effect, while the World Bank just chugs on and on with an ever growing size and budget, producing a new World Development Report every year and acting as if the past had never happened.

That is to say, there is little to no accountability for bad advice or improper diagnoses among the IFIs compared to pharmaceutical companies.



* In our 2007 JDE paper, Robin and I show that school enrollment rates, government spending, openness to trade, political constraints on the chief executive,bureaucratic quality, corruption, and overall law and order are all converging over time.

Secular Theocracy

David Theroux on secular theocracy....

That's part un. Part deux coming in January.

Portugal Fires Back!

Portuguese are outraged at Tommy the Norwegian Butter Waif! They respond in kind, pointing out the REAL crisis: no money.



Perhaps a drag race could settle this.

Tamils gotz Autotune??

Me, Lebron & the TicketCity Bowl

Our latest piece is up at Grantland.

Money quote:

In sum, we have a system where the games are not designed to produce the best on-field matchups, the competitors often lose money but fight fiercely to participate, outsiders and observers complain vehemently, and the organizers amass and waste a great deal of money with little oversight.

Welcome to capitalism, American style. Get back to us when you’ve found a better system.

What is the capital account?

Writing in the Economist, Mark Thoma says something remarkable:

"A COUNTRY that runs a current account deficit is borrowing money from the rest of the world. As with any loan, that money will need to be paid back at some point in the future. The cost of these loans is the interest that must be paid, and any vulnerabilities to speculative attacks that come with them."

We know that a current account deficit means there will be a roughly equal sized capital account surplus. But there is nothing about the capital account that requires the net foreign investment be in bonds!

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is part of the capital account. If companies around the world build more factories in country A than country A companies do around the world, then country A (all else equal) will have a capital account surplus and a current account deficit. Net foreign purchases of equities are also part of the capital account. If more foreigners buy stocks in Country A that citizens of Country A buy in foreign countries, that contributes to Country A's capital account surplus (and current account deficit).

I don't consider net FDI or net foreign purchases of equities loans. Do you?

Suppose Toyota buys a factory from Ford. Does that mean the US is borrowing money from Japan? Suppose Lionel Messi buys shares in IBM. In what sense is that the US borrowing money from Argentina? There is no requirement that the government or domestic individuals buy these items back later. Suppose I buy a factory from Ford. Is the rest of the country borrowing money from me?

Maybe Mark is speaking broadly, metaphorically, and considers profits of foreign owned factories and dividends on foreign owned stocks as "interest on loans"?

Even if this is so, FDI is decidedly NOT "money that will need to be paid back", nor am I aware of any studies showing that FDI inflows (except perhaps by the indirect channel of creating currency appreciation).

In his blog, Mark says he consulted the Krugman & Obstfeld text before writing the Economist post. Does the book make a similar claim?

People, what am I missing here?

Two Excellent Emails on the "Laptops in Classrooms" Question: Part Deux

Another email I got after posting the "Laptops in Classrooms" screed.

Hi Prof. Munger, I very strongly disagree with you, and I'll try to say why to get my thoughts on the table:

All through my undergraduate years, I brought my laptop to class with every good intention: more than any of the reasons you present, a searchable record of computerized notes is, I think, the most compelling reason for allowing computers in the classroom, and that was my goal.

But when I actually opened up the computer, I found myself struggling to accomplish this. I'd just check this one email, look at this one funny website, just have one more line of gchat with my girlfriend (who would have been doing the same from a different seminar), and then get back to the lecture. And suddenly, class would be over, and I'd be kicking myself, vowing never again to use my laptop that way during class.

Sure enough, the next class would come, and my laptop would be out, primed and ready for excellent, attentive note-taking, and a little message would pop up on my sidebar. Or I'd get bored for ten seconds and find myself sucked in as a result to a half-hour-long wikipedia quagmire.

The extent to which I was kidding myself every time I brought my computer to class, thinking it would help me to be productive, is a fascinating study in self- delusion, but I know that I was not alone in this addict-like behavior. Everyone else was doing it too --- some of my gchats were with them! It took me four years, but by my last semester of undergrad, I had quit taking my laptop to class, and I haven't taken it once since entering graduate school. It turns out that forcibly limiting your options is a great way to focus your attention. Human are impulsive --- too many choices can be crippling rather than liberating, because what seems in the moment like a good idea is not, of course, always what you really want to be doing. Feel free to deny this aspect of our nature if you will, but caving to students' demands about having laptops in class is like untying Odysseus from the mast at his first pathetic cry.

By telling your students you do not allow laptops in class, you are not enslaving them: you are setting them free. They are free from the constant distractions of the rest of the world. They are confined in a way, yes: confined to the path they have chosen for themselves --- to the education they are supposedly receiving and the classes they have supposedly chosen.

Pandering to psych studies about attention will not save you. Yes, paying attention is hard. But our minds are not simply ticking attention timers. I have had good teachers who have engaged my attention for 2 full hours (without gimmicky "activities"), and bad teachers who couldn't hold it for 2 minutes. A laptop would have provided an easy escape in the latter case, but it would also have prevented me from having the kind of direct, intense, and full experience in the former. I know because it did, many times, as an undergraduate, and freeing myself from my laptop was a revelation.

Perhaps you will say that this sort of experience is one that all students should have for themselves, but I disagree. The classroom is not a polity, and it is not a typical exchange relationship, as you seem to envision it: it is meant to provide students with an education --- and if a student (or, in most cases, their parents) wants to pay for a Duke degree, then we have the prerogative to decide what that means. And in this case, it should mean helping students form the good habits that my own undergraduate professors didn't have the guts to help me form. We are training them to pay attention in a world that does not simply consist of 15-20 minute segments punctuated by the naptimes or clapping games of our kindergarten teachers.

And this, in turn, should give us a greater sense of responsibility. I agree that there are too many professors out there who "suck" at teaching (inevitable, given the incentive structures in academia, but that's another story). But laptops are not a solution --- agreeing to have laptops in the classroom is simply giving up on good teaching at all. At least without laptops, there are no excuses.

"Pandering to psych studies"? Yikes. To be fair, the author is a political theorist, and the whole empirical thing tends to escape them. Still, a useful analysis.

So, It was Crack Cocaine?

Actual Central Florida Headline:

Man eats cocaine in brother's butt, dies


Police: Man trying to hide drug evidence in squad car

You could read the rest of the story, but frankly there's not much more to tell.

(Nod to Jackie Blue, who misses Florida....not so much)

Two Excellent Emails on the "Laptops in Classrooms" Question

I got quite a few emails about the "Laptops in Classrooms!" screed.

Thought I'd post two of the emails I got from people who thought I got it wrong. Here is one. It is a bit long, but quite thoughtful, and from someone who has seen how things work.

Person 1: I appreciated your post, and I agree with you wholeheartedly that poor teaching deserves 90% of the blame for extended periods of student distraction.
But my anti-laptop views began to take shape during my first semester as a TA at [redacted] University. The professor was a phenomenal teacher, one of the best in our top-ten department. (I don't think I've ever seen a longer or heartier standing ovation for an instructor than the one s/he received at the end of his/her intro course.) There was a significant amount of student-teacher interaction (course enrollment was 80). And yet, a ridiculously high number of students had Facebook and other non-course-related sites up on the screen for ridiculously long portions of the class. From my perch at the back of her classroom, I could see most student laptops. Of course I knew students sometimes check email or Facebook or ESPN.com, but the sheer magnitude of the thing struck me (and I admit, scandalized me). I don't have any way of quantifying this in retrospect, but I can only say that I would bet a small fortune on the proposition that they spent more time more profoundly distracted with laptops than they would have spent distracted without them.
(Of course, I TA-ed for other classes with less talented professors, and level of web-wandering was astronomically high in these cases--approaching 90% of screen time spent on non-class-related pages. As you suggest, those professors were asking for it in some measure.)
This is my case study evidence, but I would make three further random points on this topic.
First, while I appreciate your point about web-based distraction as a mere substitute for daydreaming or doodling, I think there are important distinctions to be made here. This is probably a task for real social scientists, but my hunch is that web content is far more engrossing and tends to account for far lengthier bouts of distraction than daydreaming or doodling. Daydreaming can be fun, but checking Facebook updates is just so much easier on the imagination. I can't remember the last time I've daydreamed or doodled for, say, two hours. But two hours wasting time online? No problem. I'm pretty sure I'm not alone here.
Second-- and this is an explanation that I often give to students in small seminars (20 or under)-- laptops constitute not only source of distraction but also a physical barrier. It is hard to imagine having an excellent dinner conversation with little ten-inch plastic walls sitting in front of each guest. I think these little walls somehow denature or degrade the conversation. I'm here, but not completely. I would also add that they introduce seemingly endless voices and minds into the room whereas (inky view) the high-octane seminar is about the 10 minds in the room engaging one another and a text.
Third, I think laptops encourage stenography as opposed to listening and real note-taking. The pen and paper forces the student to digest material then and there, to discern what is most important, and to get it down. This requires listening, and it even leaves little time for critically evaluating what you're hearing and asking questions about it. Stenography not only doesn't require listening, I think it suppresses listening and critical thinking. (The court reporter is the last person I'd ask to tell me the highlights of the day's testimony. I'll talk to the journalist with the Steno pad.) So in this light, it seems that even the best students--those with Word open rather than Facebook-- are bad laptop users.
Fourth, and most intangibly, I think there is something freeing about removing the web as an option for students. (Here's dangerous claim about positive freedom.) They spend every minute of every day with the web as an option. For one blessed hour, three days a week, my students are free, absolutely free, from the alluring glow of the iPhone and the MacBook. Believe it or not, I think this makes them happy. I think they like to pay attention. But of course, they won't admit it...

Dr. James Harrigan on why laptops should NOT be allowed in the classroom....

The response, also at KOSMOS, taking the "No Laptops!" view.

James Harrigan

Butter Crisis Prompts Desperate Video

"What if it was YOU who didn't have any butter? What if I took your butter away from you?"

TOMMY! Listen. YOUR. GOVERNMENT. is doing this to you, sweetie. There is no butter shortage. It is the state who is f***ing you. You are hilarious because the shortage is entirely a product of your protectionist trade policies. If you needed actual help, we'd be there for you. But if we tried to ship in emergency supplies of butter, we would be ARRESTED. Just like those Swedish butter thugs...

(If you have missed the story, check out our man Angus, with his finger on the private parts of Norway and the butter crisis.)

Grandma Got Indefinitely Detained Now

They took her rights in order to protect her rights....
The most genius plan ever in history!

Scandinavian follies

KPC recently broke the story of Norway's tragic, self-inflicted butter shortage (or as Matt Yglesias would have it, Norway's heroic defense of a diversified economy).

Now let me ask you a question? What do you call buying butter at $35 a pound?

Well in Norway apparently it's a bargain and in Sweden it's a profit opportunity.

Yes people, the marauding Swedes are trying to bring down brave little Norway by smuggling in butter!

Two guys "sneaking" across the border with 550 pounds of butter. In 18 oz. packages. Tragically the article is silent on how exactly these packages were concealed.

The article treats the shortage as somehow exogenous and talks about how it has led to "blackmarket trafficking", like butter was heroin. As we noted before, idiotic trade barriers have produced this bogus "shortage".

Norway: We're not just oil, we're oil and butter! (except when we run out of butter).

Norway: No Dutch disease here, just take a peek at our dairy industry!

Student Brings Typewriter to Class

The Ward Boss sends this little gem. Student brings typewriter to class to take notes.

Ya gotta love the little "ding" when he puts it away.

Where did the kid FIND a non-electric typewriter? Impressive.

A Sweet Tribute

I had missed this. A sweet tribute of the young Buck to his very famous father.

Jack and Joe Buck call their respective Game 6's from Kidd Video on Vimeo.

Also sad to see #5 in the thick of the celebration. Bon chance, #5.

Laptops in Class: I say "Allow Them"

So, a debate between truth and craven falsehood over at KOSMOS.

With me, as always, taking the side of truth. Should laptops be required / allowed / prohibited in class?

Falsity gets its chance, arguing the "ban laptops! They are da debbil's woikshoppe!" tomorrow.

Excerpt: If you have to pay someone to attend you, that’s prostitution. If you have to force someone to attend you, that’s slavery.

I have never understood why so many professors believe that students must be prostituted or indentured. But that is what the “ban laptops” crowd is arguing: We can’t count on students to learn voluntarily. So we have to bribe them, or we have to force them to leave their laptops home.

Look, profs: If you seriously find that most of your students are daydreaming, facebooking, or cruising porn sites (not that that’s a bad thing…), you might want to try an old and honorable solution. Two words.

Stop.

Sucking.

Men Think Women Dig Them, Women are Surprised By This

The Misperception of Sexual Interest

Carin Perilloux, Judith Easton & David Buss
Psychological Science, forthcoming

Abstract: The current study (N = 199) utilized a "speed-meeting" methodology to study sexual misperception. This method allowed us to evaluate the magnitude of
men's sexual over-perception bias, whether and how women misperceive sexual interest, and individual differences in susceptibility to misperception. We found strong support for the novel prediction that women underestimate the sexual interest of male interaction partners. Men inclined to pursue a short-term mating strategy and men who rated themselves as attractive were especially likely to over-perceive women's sexual interest. As targets of misperception, women's physical attractiveness predicted the magnitude of men's sexual over-perception bias. We discuss implications of gender differences and individual differences within sex in susceptibility to sexual misperception.

Interesting that the prettier the woman, the more the man thinks she is interested in him. All men think they are good drivers, good dancers, and good...you know.

To be fair, though, this is clearly adaptive. Type 1 and type 2 error problem. If only one out of ten women who smile at you actually thinks she wants you, it makes sense to be embarrassed nine times and have a shot at reproducing once. There is no fitness penalty for embarrassment. But there is a fitness penalty for thinking you are ugly and not trying. The fact that most men are in fact ugly is irrelevant.

Nod to Kevin Lewis, who is always a gentleman.

She's Just Capturing the Regulators

(with apologies to Elvis Costello)

Venn diagrams = good. And here are several describing the overlap companies and the fed gov.

Nod to MAG

We are ALL Humean Beings Now

My favorite philosopher, by a wide margin, is David Hume. (Never mind the epistemology stuff, not sure what he was doing there, forget that).

Very nice article in NYT on Hume, and why he gets disrespected.

In fact, it seems to me that Ron Paul is the modern political version of David Hume. Everyone says that he's right about a lot of things, perhaps wrong about some things, but in any case they certainly can't take him seriously, because.... hard to say why, actually.

As Bertrand Russell put it: "Rousseau was mad but influential; Hume was sane but had no followers."

Same as it ever was

While we either resent or enjoy cheap Chinese imports, most of us think of them as a relatively recent phenomenon.

Check out this description of Chinese imports:

"much prettier articles than are made in XXXX and sometimes so cheap that I am ashamed to mention it" The trades "pursued by the XXXXers have all died out because people buy their clothes and shoes from the [Chinese]"

Hmmm, floods of cheap textiles and footwear that are killing domestic industries? Is XXXX the USA and 2011 the year?

No, XXXX is Spain and the time period is the 1580s!

The quotes are from Charles Mann's fascinating book 1493. (page 153)

At least the 16th century Chinese got paid in silver; their unlucky modern day disciples have to take green pieces of paper or electronic IOUs from Uncle Sam.

The Real Reason the State Opposes Charters

In North Carolina, we have many places with overcrowded schools and the need to build more. The cost per student is on the order of $8k or more.

But charter schools can quickly gear up, in places that are overcrowded, and use rental space (as opposed to purchasing land, required by state law). Charters can go without sports facilities (as opposed to having a full set of sports and recreation facilities, as required by state law). Charters can contract out for janitorial services, can do without a full service cafeteria, can go without hallway lockers, and can make do without full service school buses. Regular schools have to have all those things, as required by....well, you know.

So, charters can operate about 1/2 to 2/3 the cost per student of regular schools in NC. And they can be up and running in a year, where it takes five years or more for a new state school.

Why would anyone be against charters?

Because the job of schools is NOT to provide education to children. That's a myth. The job of state schools is to provide JOBS to people who will vote Democrat. It's not clear that charter school faculty will have the correct ideology, since they are hired by the parents who pay the bills, not the bureaucrats who depend on the state for their livelihood.

In New York, the authorities went so far as to send the money BACK, rather than allow flexibility and choice in school provision.

Here is what the state of NY had to say about it:

An audit of the public pre-K system by the city comptroller’s office places the blame for the lack of seats squarely on the city’s Department of Education, saying that in 2010, it got enough money from the state — $29 million — to finance an additional 8,000 seats. When those funds went unspent, they had to be returned to the state. But the department said those funds would have paid for only 2.5 hours of teaching daily, making the programs impractical for working families. What city families need is full-day programs, according to the department, and the state money will not pay for those.

In other words, parents are paying taxes into the system. Since it is unable to provide the educational services it promised when it took the money, at gunpoint, the state could rebate that money, either as vouchers or as part of a charter agreement. Either would solve the overcrowding problem.

But, instead, the state insists that only a full day would serve "working families." This concern for "working families" means that they get....nothing.

Kobe: He's Not Good

With apologies to P. Boettke, who will continue to insist that Kobe is not just the best player in NBA history, but also a fine human being. Pete is wrong about some other things, too, but he is wrongest about Kobe. Kobe is a worthless, worthless man. This is a spoof, but it captures the essence of the man.

This from Boondocks, August 4, 2003:

Quotes of the week

Great article by David Roodman on getting to the bottom of conflicting econometric results.

Money quote:

The process is standard in econometrics and is called Maximum Likelihood. It is analogous to a blind ant searching for the highest point in the Himalayas. The ant starts somewhere. It explores the immediate neighborhood. It determines which nearby point is highest and goes there. And it repeats, maybe millions of times, until it gets stuck at place where all neighboring points are downhill. Then the ant assumes it is at the highest point.

Hat tip to Roving Bandit

Jon Chait on Krugman's impact on the NY Times Editorial page.

Money Quote:

The most remarkable attribute Krugman has brought to the Times is rudeness.


Article on the Lakers' travails showing the wit and wisdom of Andrew Bynum.

Money Quote:

Lakers center Andrew Bynum isn't fretting the failed trade at all. In fact, he thinks the Lakers are better off with it falling through. "I'm happy we didn't do it," Bynum said. "I don't think you trade two 7-footers for a point guard. Ever."

Hat tip to LeBron

Kobe's Wife Has More Rings Than He Does, But Enough is Enough

Kobe's wife finally got fed up.

She has more rings than he does, but still... a girl has to have SOME pride.

Mancur Olson Lives!

Maybe it's because it's raining hard, and I have to give an exam.

On a Friday night. 7 - 10 pm.

To 80 students. It's an essay exam. It's 1/2 mile away, and I have to carry all the stuff over there, and carry it back, in the rain. Then two days of grading.

Maybe that's why I'm a little incredulous at this story.

Professor requires students to bring snacks to class, or he refuses to teach.

But then I saw this little gem:

In an interview with Inside Higher Ed, Parrott defended his teaching methods. He said he could understand why some students would be frustrated about the missed class time, but that people should view his requirement as a valid pedagogical choice.

A graduate of Cal State's Chico campus, Parrott said that when he was an undergraduate, courses had 12 to 20 students, and those in a class formed close ties among themselves and with the professor. "Those days are long gone," Parrott said. The course in question is supposed to have a maximum of 42 students, although this year he has 52 in the section that skipped snack last week. That makes it hard for students to connect. So does the nature of Sacramento State's student body. "It's a commuter rat race. Students drive in and go home and never connect with their fellow students," he said.

Enter the snack requirement: Parrott said that he's teaching students to work together to set a schedule, to work in teams to get something done, and to check up on one another, since everyone depends on whoever has the duty of bringing snacks on a given week. Typically, no individual should be involved in preparing the snack more than twice a semester, he said.

As the class gets larger, seems like it would be easier to take turns on the snacks, yes? But of course, as Olson showed, it actually gets HARDER to solve the collective action problem, even though the group has more resources than it did before.

Now, out into the rain....

Not the Onion: Lucy In the Sky, With Vulvas

Not sure this is real. A little far-fetched.

But, school kids have been told they can't make hand gestures when they sing "Twinkle, Twinkle, little star."

Given that the British Sign Language gesture for female genitalia is a diamond or triangle shape, it is believed that the gesture was accompanying the line 'like a diamond in the sky', which is known to have caused confusion in the past.

You can see, in this video, the "offensive" hand sign at about 1:18.

Um...how has it caused confusion, exactly? Did the deaf children think that someone was claiming there was an upside down vulva in the sky? I mean, sure, that would be scary, but I can't imagine that is what they thought.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Disclosure is Not as Good as You Think

New report from IJ, and KPC friend David Primo.

Disclosure: not as good as you think.

From Our Man Koopa, in the Field

Koopa writes from India. Koopa is from Noo Joisey, you understand. But grandma still lives in India, and Koopa is visiting. He had five marriage proposals (some of those were from women, I believe) in his first day on the subcontinent. He writes:

1.2 billion people. Women are everywhere. Hook up law of numbers was born here, except for the cultural desire not to display affection or sex in public. They STILL don't even kiss in the movies. Which is funny - I saw an Indian movie where the actor and actress were acting proper, not kissing, very chaste.

Then a commercial came on for chocolate condoms. I laughed myself silly. The commercial was the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. The condoms come in a cookie box (no foil packets).

What a place. I should point out that Koopa is an American citizen, has a Duke law degree, and even I have to admit he's pretty cute.

Grand Game: U Mass Amherst PERI Edition

I hesitate to put this up, surely it is a satire or hoax. But I think these folks are serious.

They are going to take all that "excess" liquidity, and make the world better.

Starting with the financial collapse and Great Recession of 2008-09, the U.S. economy has been experiencing the most severe and protracted employment crisis since the 1930s Depression. As the employment crisis has proceeded, U.S. commercial banks and large nonfinancial corporations have been building up huge hoards of cash and other liquid assets. This study examines the impact on job creation of mobilizing these excess liquid assets into productive investments within the U.S. economy over the next three years.

Discuss.

(Nod to @milesoftrials )

President to Sign Indefinite Detention Bill

He is going to sign the thing.

He is not capable of telling the truth, because he literally cannot tell true statements from falsehoods. His speeches are just applause lines strung together.

I give you... George Hussein Busbama!

UPDATE: My friend Stefan D has this quip, on FB--"Well it's not like the detention is forever...it's just indefinite. I would think the detainees would enjoy the guessing..."Will I get out tomorrow?" Every day is like Christmas Eve."

Initial Jobless claims fall!

"Only" 366,000 this past week. Slowly but you know what-ly, the American economy is rising, perhaps just in time to get hammered by the Euro debacle, but rising nonetheless. Good news for President Obama.

Gilligan! Hold the Mayo!

Two grad school colleagues made good.

Tom Gilligan at UTexas

John Mayo at Georgetown

I'd try to make myself feel better by saying I knew them, but they'd both deny it. Because Angus and I...we've got stories.

(nod to Chateau. He's got stories about Angus and me)

Links: Video Games

1. Is Skyrim an economic disaster?

2. Bearded dragon playing ant video game
. May not be real, but pretty funny.

3. Worst game of all time: Big Rigs--Open Road Racing. Although the packaging of Big Rigs states that the main objective of the game is to race their Big Rig to safety in order to deliver illegal cargo being carried by the vessel, while avoiding the local police force, in actuality, there are no police in the game, and no such objectives are presented within the game itself. Much of the game instead centers on the player racing their truck against fellow drivers to the finish line; however, the player's computer-controlled opponent vehicles have no AI and never move from the starting position. In addition, due to a lack of collision detection, there are no obstacles to negotiate within the game, and the laws of physics can be violated frequently.

(Nod to SdM, Anonyman, the Ward Boss, and the Blonde)

Caption Contest!

This is Joel Rosch, Sanford Institute faculty and closeted libertarian.

Caption contest!

Peace on earth, goodwill to men!

Yes, I'm pretty sure they are ALL stuffed!

Mike Tyson Does Herman Cain Spoof

This amused me. It is disrespectful, and possibly racist, but it amused me.

Herman Cain’s Campaign Promises with Mike Tyson from Mike Tyson

As Anonyman notes, "he had me at Pizza Pthursday"

Why do the Dutch hate Christmas?

Look at the Netherlands; twice as rich but almost twice as stingy as Poland. Stingier than the GERMANS (who are almost twice as stingy as the French)! Big ups to the Irish!

(clic the pic for a more Scroog-ian image)

Tall, smug and stingy is no way to go through life, son.

Hat Tip to Tim Harford's Twitter Feed.

*******UPDATE********

The Dutch aren't the only ones!

Castrating Lambs Can Make You Sick

So, this news story says "castrating lambs with teeth can kill you."

That doesn't make any sense to me. I thought ALL lambs had teeth.

Oh...wait. You mean.... EWWWWWWW!

Nod to the Blonde. Next time she calls Bob Lee her "little lamb" I'll know what she is actually thinking.

Financial Incentives and Student Achievement

Financial Incentives and Student Achievement: Evidence from Randomized
Trials

Roland Fryer, Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 2011, Pages 1755-1798

Abstract: This article describes a series of school-based field experiments in over 200 urban schools across three cities designed to better understand the impact of financial incentives on student achievement. In Dallas, students were paid to read books. In New York, students were rewarded for performance on interim assessments. In Chicago, students were paid for classroom grades. I estimate that the impact of financial incentives on student achievement is statistically 0, in each city. Due to a lack of power, however, I cannot rule out the possibility of effect sizes that would have positive returns on investment. The only statistically significant effect is on English-speaking students in Dallas. The article concludes with a speculative discussion of what might account for intercity differences in estimated treatment effects.

Nod to Kevin Lewis