Still Sick From Return

Had hoped to be back up to speed by now. Spent four nights in England, in London and then visiting Tommy the Brit.

But got badly sick on plane back. That may be as (temporarily) miserable as you can get, outside of prison: nine hours with a bad fever, shivering, in coach, getting up every 20 minutes to puke (or pretend to puke, because your stomach insists). And then getting to &^$%*ing Atlanta and being greeted by the friendly staff of America's "Welcome home! Now bend over" customs.

Then four hours on the floor in Atlanta waiting for the flight that is (of course) delayed. Coach again, middle seat. Stewardess actually wakes me, incredulous that I don't want peanuts. No, ma'am, thanks very much.

Was in a near coma yesterday. Finally kept something solid down around 2 pm.

Today, I was feeling so bad I actually played Angry Birds. Had never played it before. Nice, because you can shoot a bird at those bad pigs and then take a little nap before your next shot. A nice quiet little game. I will never, ever play it again.

It would be good if my head stopped hurting. But the whole not puking thing is an improvement.

Tomorrow: England, Tommy the Brit, Harold. And, of course, the Cock.

Don't call me Shirley

Have you heard about New Mexico?

It's getting bigger!

Land of Enchantment indeed.

One day me and Mrs. Angus' dirt pile may be a whole ranch!

Lagarde vs. Lagarde

Chrissie, you got some 'splainin' to do!

 The head of the International Monetary Fund warned that in addition to cutting yawning budget deficits Europe needs to do more to promote growth and stop the crisis from spreading to the world economy. "It is about avoiding a 1930s moment, in which inaction, insularity, and rigid ideology combine to cause a collapse in global demand," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said before the German Council on Foreign Relations. "A moment, ultimately, leading to a downward spiral that could engulf the entire world," she said. 

 People, one of the most effective remedies for the "1930s problem" was for countries to exit the gold standard and devalue their currencies (you are allowed to agree with this even if you favor a gold standard by simply believing that they'd chosen the wrong parities). The situation in Europe is eerily similar. The PIIGS need to exit the Euro-zone and devalue their currencies! As far as I can see, the IMF is dead set AGAINST this proven remedy to "1930s problems"

 Instead, the IMF is actually a big part of the forced austerity movement! The IMF is part of the group threatening further payouts to Greece unless they do what? INCREASE AUSTERITY!!

The IMF is making Greek negotiations with private creditors much harder by refusing to take any haircuts on their own loans to Greece (the IMF's insistence on being paid in full makes the required private haircut to hit the IMF's 120% debt in 2020 target even harder).

 In other words, as is usually the case in a financial crisis, THE IMF IS PART OF THE PROBLEM.

The only viable alternative to self defeating austerity is exit and devaluation. I believe that IMF economists know this, but the leaders of the organization are more concerned about French and German banks than they are about economic performance and living standards in Greece and Portugal, so we get these ridiculous & hypocritical lectures.

 

Economists at Sea

Economists at sea...

Fourth, we must acknowledge the intimate, inseparable relationship between politics and economics. Modern debates about who caused the financial crisis—­government or the private financial sector—are almost ­nonsensical. We are living in an era of money politics and large powerful interests that influence the laws and regulations and their enforcement. In order to catalyze the evolution of economics, research teams would benefit from multidisciplinary interaction with politics, psychology, anthropology, sociology and history.

This makes sense to me. But then I was never a good enough economist to get a job as an economist...

The culture that is Spain / Another one bites the dust

What the hell is up with Spain? Light bulls' horns on fire and enjoy watching them run around going nuts? To honor some "Saint"?

Well, one bull has done his level best to even up the score:


A flaming-horned bull trampled and fatally gored a man early Saturday during a festival in eastern Spain, an official said. Large balls of flaming wax are traditionally affixed to the beasts' heads before they are let loose to rampage through squares and narrow streets in such festivals. 


 the bull charged the man, gored him and then stamped on his head, causing him "irreversible injuries." 


Many towns in east and northeastern Spain celebrate feasts with "toros embolados," or "flaming bulls," which feature the animals racing around and shaking their heads as a reaction to flames or fireworks attached to or close to their horns. At these regional festivals, flaming-horned bulls are taunted and teased by rowdy crowds in bullrings, town squares or down streets.

C'mon bulls, you got a lot of work left to do!

Early to bed, never to rise?

"And yet while young men's failures in life are not penalizing them in the bedroom, their sexual success may, ironically, be hindering their drive to achieve in life."

 More here.

 Discuss?

Bait & Switch

Here's some early footage of Lebron in action:


 


Hat tip to Mrs. Lebron.

What do you get the jaguar who has everything?

Indoor plumbing, of course!!

Hat tip to Karl de la O

One size fits all

In this excellent interview, Werner Herzog allows that all of his movies could have been appropriately given the same title: "Gazing Into The Abyss".

Austerity & Growth

There is a lot of discussion on the question of whether austerity is growth enhancing or not. While it's an entertaining debate, I get the feeling that the subtext is that European austerity only makes sense if it's growth enhancing, and I don't think that's true.

To my mind, Greece has two choices, default and devalue or continue on a path of ever greater austerity. Why they seem to be choosing option "b" is beyond my comprehension, but given they don't exit the system, what other option do they really have? Obviously they have no monetary levers. Obviously, they cannot borrow to finance further spending "stimulus". Obviously they cannot compel Germany to just pay up or the ECB to apply the monetary level system wide.  Obviously, they are not going to export their way to prosperity in the near term. So it's pretty much austerity uber alles for them.

Italy is in largely the same boat, except their borrowing rates have not hit Grecian heights due to ECB interventions. Their only options are austerity or exit.

As for the US of A, the idea that we are practicing fiscal austerity is risible. You can't even see austerity from where we are currently standing.

Alan Blinder channels St. Augustine

 You know, "Lord, grant me chastity, but not just yet"!

In today's WSJ, Alan writes, "it would be smart to borrow, say, another $500 billion this year and then pay for it, say, 10 times over, with $5 trillion in deficit reduction spread over 10 years—starting, say, in 2014."

People say this all the time, Blinder, Christina Romer, Mark Thoma, but it doesn't make sense. All Congress can commit to doing is what they actually do in the present. Does anyone really think the coming "draconian sequesters" on defense will actually happen?

The "cuts are coming around the corner" language is just boilerplate, designed to inoculate the writer from the charge of fiscal irresponsibility when they advocate increasing current federal spending.

Current Congresses cannot bind future Congresses. If they really want to cut spending, the only way to do it is to (sorry in advance) JUST DO IT in the here and now.

Don't hold your breath.

Hey big mouth!

We Just Kept Looking and Looking for a Connection That was NOT There

Interesting.  No systematic connection between junk food and obesity.

These researchers sat on the result for two years, trying to torture the data to make it come out "right."

Nod to the Blonde.

Best athlete out of Russia since Maria Sharapova!

This crow is the absolute bizzle:

Tumblr of the Day

Pizza Fractals!

Look, This is Not Complicated

Let's spell it out.

If you are invited to go on the Jon Stewart Show, you should go. It will be fun, Jon asks softball questions, it will be great, you will get to talk about your book

If, on the other hand, John Oliver, or Asif Mandvi, or Jason Jones, want to talk to you, just laugh at loud and hang up the phone. Do NOT talk to them. Do not do an interview. Do not even answer questions in writing. They already have an angle. They are smarter than you are, or at least they will seem smarter after they finish editing the interview.

Why do otherwise smart people convince themselves that they are going to be anything other than reamed? Froma Harrop is revealed here to be an unbelievable hypocrite and a self-important fool.

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She just couldn't believe anyone could disagree with her, and be anything but a "terrorist." She even goes so far as to say that that was NOT a metaphor. She meant it literally: disagree with me, and you are a terrorist. Didn't we all make fun of George Bush when he tried that same stupid line?

Now, I have always just thought Froma Harrop was another economically illiterate lefty journalista. Given that she never took any actual courses in college, it's not her fault.

But.... it turns out she is actually a really, really scary lady. Thanks, Jon Stewart, and thanks to John Oliver! Don't ever call me, by the way. I won't answer, John O.

Lagniappe: From Wikipedia.... Harrop is the President of the National Conference of Editorial Writers. One project of the NCEW is the Civility Project, aimed at restoring civility to America's public discourse. Her position was criticized by the Wall Street Journal, which noted the contrast between this role and her comparison of the Tea Party to terrorist groups such as al-Qaida. In her response to the criticism, Harrop stated, "I see incivility as not letting other people speak their piece." She subsequently deleted all the comments from the post and shut down the commenting feature of her blog.

On Computers / WiFi in Class

It is so important to this professor that people only pay attention to him in all his narcissistic glory that he forced the class into a smaller room....

JUST so there is no wifi.

Wouldn't it have been easier to stay in the large class and ban laptops? Or make it possible to jam wifi somehow? It can't be hard.

Or, you could just let the students decide. As I argued before.

Lee Siegel Is An Idiot

You don't have to be an idiot to write for the NY Times.

But it helps. P-Krrog, for example, is certainly not an idiot. But he has to act like one to publish in the Times.

Being an idiot is the only qualification I can see for Lee Siegel writing a column.

Some analysis, from NO MORE MISTER NICE BLOG.

A lagniappe: Here is Mr. Siegel being an idiot on the Daily Show. Now that "Kim Jong Il Looking at Things" won't have any new entries, perhaps someone can have a blog entitled "Lee Siegel Being An Idiot." It would have daily entries.

9 ball, corner pocket!

Hashtag of the day

OccupyNigeria

Darned Tricky Numbers

Sometimes people wonder what kind of people want to write for the lefty bed-wetting press. Why would such a talented person want to "give" so much of themselves, taking a low salary just so they can speak truth to power? Those guys must be VERY good people....

Or perhaps they are just another idiot who got some fraudulent "______ Studies" major. And so they never learned how to calculate percentages or hold a real job. Now they blame the system for how much their little lefty lives suck.

An example:

Survey: Illegal Corporate Campaign Contributions Up 400%

By Alex Seitz-Wald on Jan 12, 2012 at 6:41 pm

In 2009, just 1 percent of respondents to National Business Ethics Survey — a large industry study funded by major corporations like Walmart — said they had witnessed illegal corporate political donations. This year, that number quadrupled to 4 percent. Management-level employees at large, publicly traded companies were most likely to see the illegal activity, with seven percent of senior managers saying they had witnessed it.

If this guy had not majored in International Relations (at Brown, no less, the home of "Studies Studies"), he would know that this is:

(4-1)/1= 3

3 n.e. 4

But of course the actual numbers don't matter. It's the truthiness of the scare tactic that's important.

A complicating factor is that the Dems got FAR more corporate money than the Repubs in 2008. The problem for the left is not that corporations can give money. The problem is that corporations can give money to Republicans. THAT cannot be allowed.

Nod to Chateau

Fair Trade Frolics

This is just remarkable. Mr. Overwater did convince me of the importance people on the left attach to good intentions, regardless of whether the consequences are actually good. I think that is a big explanation of the popularity of "fair trade": I am paying more for this, an act of sacrifice and therefore of virtue. The fact that essentially none of the money actually makes it to the farmers is beside the point. I sacrificed, and therefore I am a good person.

But it's bizarre that people actually think the fair trade scam makes food healthier, or that it has fewer calories. Wow. You bedwetters believe that whatever lame secular god you worship will bless you with thinness, because you performed the good work of paying more for regular old coffee that happens to have a "fair trade" label on it.

The “Fair Trade” Effect: Health Halos From Social Ethics Claims

Jonathon Schuldt, Dominique Muller & Norbert Schwarz
Social Psychological and Personality Science, forthcoming

Abstract: The authors provide evidence that social ethics claims on food packaging (e.g., fair trade) can promote the misperception that foods are lower-calorie and therefore appropriate for greater consumption. In Study 1, participants evaluating chocolate provided lower calorie judgments when it was described as fair trade — a claim silent on calorie content but signifying that trading partners received just compensation for their work. Further establishing this effect, Study 2 revealed that chocolate was perceived as lower-calorie when a company was simply described as treating its workers ethically (e.g., providing excellent wages and health care) as opposed to unethically (e.g., providing poor wages and no health care) among perceivers with strong ethical food values, consistent with halo logic. Moreover, calorie judgments mediated the same interaction pattern on recommendations of consumption frequency, suggesting that amid the ongoing obesity crisis, social ethics claims might nudge some perceivers to overindulge. Theoretical and applied implications are discussed.

Nod to Kevin Lewis

Romance is Costly?

Does the number of sex partners affect educational attainment? Evidence from female respondents to the Add Health (older version, ungated)

Joseph Sabia & Daniel Rees, Journal of Population Economics, December 2011, Pages 89-118

Abstract: We use data on young women from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to explore the relationship between number of sex partners and educational attainment. Using the average physical development of male schoolmates to generate plausibly exogenous variation in number of sex partners, instrumental variables estimates suggest that number of sex partners is negatively related to educational attainment. This result is consistent with the argument that romantic involvements are time consuming and can impose substantial emotional costs on young women.

Not sure this is right. Not directly a "cost," as much a correlate. Wasting time on promiscuity is dangerous and a sign of poor judgment, maybe also an artificially short time horizon. People with good decision making skills and a longer time horizon just aren't tempted to be promiscuous. This isn't sex, this is NUMBER of sex partners.

So, it's not, "Ya know, I could go to a bar, pick up a guy I've never met, and then do the bouncy-bouncy until daylight. But that would cost me too much time that I should spend studying for my PhD in physical chemistry. I would prefer to go out, of course, but I'll stay home." Rather, someone with ambition would just never consider doing those things. It's not appealing.

What I am trying to say is that the level of appeal of random hook-ups is the same for every woman, not that great. What differs is access to something else, an ambition for a career, which may come from having role models or parental encouragement from a young age. The hook-ups thing is just not that much fun.

Blogoverse needs Pritchett

Lant Pritchett is guestblogging up a storm about conditional cash transfers.

Check out these two excellent (albeit perhaps slightly contradictory) posts here and here.

Self-recommending.

A NOTY problem

Name of the Year. You can vote, America.

WARNING: NSFW. NSF anything, really. Utterly pointless. But if you read this blog, that must be attractive to you.

As our correspondent M-Ka notes, "I know from following your blogs every day, and listening to you on EconTalk, that you and Dr. Grier disdain both frivolity and low culture. But I do think you might like to promote this on KPC:

I voted for La'Peaches (check out the link to her), and Monsterville Horton IV (because of his obvious aristocratic status). And Vernon Lee Bad Marriage Jr. won his round!"

Thanks, M-Ka!

White Girl Problems

Okay, I'm not proud of this.

But if I need a pick me up, no more than twice a day or so (no, really), I just crank up Twitter and watch #whitegirlproblems . It's extremely rewarding. Some are likely serious, some are certainly not. But rewarding.

In five minutes, you will laugh out loud at least five or six times.

Things like:

I prayed for your forehead last night.

Pulled up to a stop light, blaring Lil' Wayne, & 2 black guys just broke up laughing.

If only I could unf**k you

So pale.... so pale

Kindle wouldn't connect to wi-fi, so I had to buy an actual book

Too busy to work on job applications

It's art, actually.

David Theroux: Secular Theocracy II

"Secular Theocracy: The Foundations and Folly of Modern Tyranny”

As a reminder, here again is Part 1...


The full article with footnotes is here

Krueger on Inequality

This would be Alan ("Nominal") Krueger, not Anne ("Real") Krueger. The problem is that Alan is not adjusted for infliction (of nonsense).

His screed on inequality and its causes.

The slides for the speech.

The topic is an important one. Dr. K's presentation of the problem are interesting. Not sure why he decided to go all simplistic on the "causes," tho. This is complicated.

(Nod to E-Chris)

There is no great stagnation II (DJ style)

Check out these amazing turntable decks made from LEGOS! This one came from Germany and has a construction manual available here along with more pics:

This one is from the good old USA (more info here):

There is no great stagnation

Every single day of my life I thank the universe with Tebow-ish fervor that I was not doomed to live in an age when THIS was considered entertainment:

Let us now praise famous men

My main man, co-blogger, and friend of over 30 years, Mungowitz really outdid himself by sending me this *awesome*, nearly life-sized, David Freese world series bobblehead. 

Feast your eyes, people. Feast your eyes.

(clic the pic for an even more glorious image)

Che says, "Down with capitalist pigs! Buy my merchandise!"

umm....this kind of stuff happens all the time

Headline on Yahoo this morning condemning "human zoo" where indigenous people danced for tourists in exchange for food.

People, to different degrees, this happens all the time all over the world. Mrs. A and I have seen it advertised in Africa, Asia & Latin America. Heck it happens in Hawaii quite a bit!

I don't like it. We avoid such suggested outings, and have at times simply left our hotel when groups were brought in to perform. I feel like the people must hate doing it and that makes me embarrassed to watch/listen. (I have enjoyed gamalan concerts in Bali and traditional dance performances in Bali though (at places where you went and bought a ticket) so maybe I am a hypocrite here?) It is usually very hard to convince local people that you don't want to go to the "show".

But, food is good. Money is good. If the "performers" aren't slaves and choose to do their thing in exchange for the offered remuneration, how is it like a zoo? By my refusal to attend, am I sending people home to be hungry?

Every day, all over the world, millions of people voluntarily do things we generally consider unseemly or unsafe or undignified. This is one reason why, to me at least, global economic growth is still imperative.

Penn Jillette, Atheist

I don't think you are TRYING hard enough

Fuel companies fined for their petty refusal to an additive in gasoline.

Look, the law says they have to do it. Stop fooling around, guys.

Of course, their lame excuse is that the additive does not actually exist.

The answer is that if your government is smart enough to imagine what it wants, the least you can do is actually make the stuff.

(Nod to Anonyman)

Hashtag of the day

People, check out the tweets at #ronpaultroofs

Here's one I especially liked:

"Ron Paul gave George Washington Carver his first peanut." 

and another:

"If you smoke like Ron Paul smokes, then you're high, like, every day."

Why Is This So Difficult?

Three suggestions about things you never say, or always say, or should say, to a potential mentor.

This week...THIS WEEK... I have gotten messages or had phone conversations that violated all three.

In particular, I suggested we meet at 10 am. Two different people wanting advice said, "No, that's too early for me. Can we do it some other time?"

Sure, we can do it during that time when I otherwise would have been writing you a pretty good letter of recommendation. Because now it is NOT going to be a good letter of recommendation.

Just read this. The guy has it right. And hopefully you are angling for being mentored by somebody WAY better than I am anyway, so it will actually matter!

Get your money out of PIMCO....

....because its CEO, the ubiquitous Mohamed El-Erian is a nincompoop!

Check out this gibberish in today's WSJ:

"Fat tails"—the technical term for the extremes of an outcome distribution—are risks for any global system that loses its anchors. Economies and markets function differently, companies and households feel unsettled, and policy measures become less effective.

Oh my. Where to begin.

First, "fat tails" is not a "technical term". The technical term is excess kurtosis. Fat tails is the colloquial, layman's term.

Second, fat tails is decidedly NOT a term for "the extremes of an outcome distribution"! The normal distribution is an outcome distribution. It does not have "fat tails". In fact it is the lack of fat tails in the normal distribution that lead so many models to go astray

How can this dude spew nonsense like this and get away with it? He's failing Stats 101.  It must be the 'stache.

Finally, the second sentence is even weirder than the first. I cannot make out what he is saying. Is he trying to say that recent events have changed the shape of the "outcome distribution"? Or that when we realized the outcome distribution had fatter tails than was previously thought, people changed their behaviors? The second interpretation at least makes some sense.

My Guy Tom Ferguson Analyzes Rick Santorum

From Alternet.... Tom makes a lot of sense.

Blind mole rat.... heh. Heh heh.

Americans Against Logic

Okay, so a tactical tip: If the Jon Stewart show wants to interview you, say no. Because not only will you be reamed, you will be complicit in your own reaming. I cannot understand how JS can find such self-important idiots. The Republican here... wow.

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I think Republicans are hypocrites, yes I do.
I think Republicans are hypocrites, how 'bout YOU?

(Nod to Anonyman)

Faking It

The Economics of Faking Ecstasy, Hugo Mialon, Economic Inquiry, January 2012, Pages 277–285

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a signaling model of rational lovemaking. In the
act of lovemaking, a man and a woman send each other possibly deceptive signals about their true state of ecstasy. For example, if one of the partners is not in ecstasy, then he or she may decide to fake it. The model predicts that (1) a higher cost of faking lowers the probability of faking; (2) middle-aged and old men are more likely to fake than young men; (3) young and old women are more likely to fake than middle-aged women; and (4) love, formally defined as a mixture of altruism and demand for togetherness, increases the likelihood of faking. The predictions are tested with data from the 2000 Orgasm Survey. Besides supporting the model's predictions, the data also reveal an interesting positive relationship between education and the tendency to fake in both men and women.

So, I wondered a couple of things.
1. This would not apply just to het couples. Is it different for gay men or for lesbian women?
2. It took me a minute to realize that the "2000 Orgasm Survey" was referring to a year, not a benchmark.
3. I asked the LMM, "You never fake, do you!" She said, "Of course not! Then she went upstairs and closed the door, but I could still hear her laughing.

Lagniappe: Here is a video of the author presenting the above paper...


(Nod to Kevin Lewis, who never fakes)

Can Men and Women Be Just Friends

On the Utah State U campus, a team of crack investigators ask the question, "Can men and women 'just' be friends?"

Women say "yes." Men laugh at the very idea. Men are not good people.



Now, the Bishop and I know that married men can be just friends with women.

First, we fear our wives enough to know we had better not even think about anyone else.

Second, if we piss off our wives, we are going to be "just friends" even in our houses for several nights. "Honey?" "Don't touch me..."

(Nod to the Blonde, who is not surprised by any of this.)

Regulatory Capture Video

KPC friend Susan Dudley on regulatory capture. Nicely done, ma'am!

D-Bro Loses His Mind

David Brooks says this:

"If you believe in the centrality of family, you have to have a government that ... SUPPLIES WAGE SUBSIDIES TO MEN TO MAKE THEM MARRIAGEABLE." (ellipsis/emphasis added to make sure you don't miss it.)

You can look it up. He says that.

Thanks to Jim D for pointing this out. I had missed it. I thought it was just a run-of- the mill paean to Santorum. The collective values, the communitarianism, that's all fine.

But D-Bro raised it to a whole other level. We have to PAY men to get married. He actually comes close to saying, "If you are getting the milk for free, why buy the cow?"

Funny or Die

We need a new scare for funny.

This, for example, is veryveryvery funny, and outrageous.

But then this is even funnier.

And the commercial in that clip above, starting just after 3 minutes in, with Mike Tyson as Herman Cain...we need a new word. Mr. Tyson totally nails it.

Made me laugh, it did.

More good news

Wow! The December 2011 jobs report is out.  200,000 net new jobs. Pretty good. Unemployment rate falls to 8.5%. 

Good news for president O. 

 

Surge Pricing

Tremendous example of the complexity of price as a moral principle and a rationing device. Courtesy of Reihan Salam.

Long, Huang Eat Pussy, Long Goes Down, Huang Hung

Wealthy Chinese man dies after eating poisoned stew made from slow-boiled cat.

A Chinese billionaire is dead after apparently ingesting some slow-boiled cat meat stew — though it wasn’t the cat meat that killed him.

Police in southern China have detained a local official on suspicion of poisoning the stew at the restaurant where the two were eating in Guangdong province on Dec. 23.

Agriculture official Huang Guang, billionaire Long Liyuan and a third diner were sharing a cat meat hot pot — a local delicacy — when Huang allegedly dropped some toxic herbs into the stew, the BBC reported.

Long, who ran a forestry company, was taken to the hospital after feeling dizzy and sick and later suffered a cardiac arrest. Huang and the third diner were hospitalized as well, though both survived.

According toFlickr user MowT the New York Times, Huang had apparently eaten some of the poisoned stew himself to avoid suspicion.

Police detained Huang on Dec. 30, after discovering evidence that Huang had embezzled money from Long.

Police initially took the restaurant’s owner into custody on suspicion of serving unsanitary food, according to the BBC. Long’s family, not believing he died simply of food poisoning, offered a $16,000 reward for information and insisted police keep the case open.

(Nod to the Blonde, who of course was mostly all excited about the title. I think she rented this movie last week.)

(UPDATE: Yes, I was thinking of Tom G. when I wrote this)

would you believe?

Would you believe me if i told you that, before roasting and eating that marshmallow, Kanzi the bonobo had (a) collected the wood, (b) built the fire (c) grilled up some burgers, and (d) ate them?

How about if I told you after he was done that he put the fire out with a bottle of water?

Well, it's all true!

Kanzi apparently lives in Iowa and to my mind is much more qualified for the GOP presidential nomination than any of the other "primitive creatures" who just left the State.

Okay, NOW You Can Kill Eagles (But Not Bats), To Show You Love Gaia

So, if all you are doing is building a factory that will create hundreds of jobs, and produce something people want to buy, you will be blocked by the Endangered Species Act. In fact, you may even have to close an existing golf course, because the nice froggies might not like it.

But if you want to build a "wind farm," which actually is a net loss of energy (counting the costs of construction and decommissioning), and produces almost zero jobs, then the feds will happily WAIVE the ESA. Kill all the eagles you want! (But not bats, apparently. Interesting.)

Now, in my view, the ESA is a death sentence, a stupid law that kills more creatures than it saves, by far. But still, if you believe the ESA works, why suspend it for such a marginal "industry" as wind?

Unless of course the whole thing is fake and all you really care about is the costly signal of worshipping Gaia, the Earth Mother? In that case, building an idiotic temple of wind and sacrificing eagles to Gaia actually count twice. We worship you, Gaia! And higher costs mean we love you more! Abraham was only willing to sacrifice his son. WE are willing to sacrifice eagles!

(Nod to the Blonde)

Great Essay by Ta-Nehisi Coates

It's in the Atlantic and it's called "Why do so few blacks study the civil war?"

It rejects the idea that the war was a tragedy; that is was a result of a failure to compromise, or of misunderstandings, the romanticizing of the gentlemanly southern generals.

Money quote:

For African Americans, war commenced not in 1861, but in 1661, when the Virginia Colony began passing America’s first black codes, the charter documents of a slave society that rendered blacks a permanent servile class and whites a mass aristocracy. They were also a declaration of war.

The final part of Charles Mann's excellent 1493 gives a good overview of the war between Europeans and slaves fought across the Americas.

Gun Control, Okie style

When faced with a home invasion, this Oklahoma woman, grabbed the family shotgun and pistol, called 911 for directions, and then shot and killed the person who kicked down the door to her home.

The intruders seemed to be targeting her house because her husband had just passed away.

Mrs. Angus and I go target shooting at a local firing range, and the gender mix there is easily 30% female.

By the way, Mrs. Angus is a pretty good shot!

John D. Lewis

An energetic and compelling speech by my friend John Lewis, on July 4, 2009, in Boston. If you get to give a speech in Boston for the Tea Party on July 4, you are pretty cool.



And he was pretty cool. But John Lewis died this morning at 7 am. Esophageal cancer hammered him, as brave as he was. And he was very, very brave.

This is not a good day. I'd rather think of him like he was, on that day in Boston.

UPDATE: Two more good memories.

1. JDL's terrific lecture this fall in my "Econ for Non-Majors" class. Excellent talk on Greek and Roman views of exchange. He could barely speak. And yet there he was, bustin' it for the kids.

2. JDL's also terrific HuffPo piece on the deficit (Thanks to Dan Green for the reminder)

The Maurader

I'm going to guess that admiration for this car (and this clip) will largely be divided along gender lines.

(Nod to Herr Fuchs)

Not the Onion?

For our occasional "Not the Onion" feature...which of the following is a fake news story?

1. EEOC says that requiring people to have a high school diploma, or to be able to read, violates the Americans with Disabilities Act. After all, idiots need jobs, too! And there are only 100 seats in the US Senate.

2. N. Koreans called on to provide "human shield" for Kim Jong (Big) Un. Presumably, the herd of shielders will also be available to be butchered for food, in case Big Un gets peckish. The story does also note that there is a "burning issue" of food shortage. What's a Big Un to do?

3. New Fox network reality show to choose candidate for President of Iraq. The winner will receive $1 million in campaign cash, and several truckloads of dates to use as bribes.

4. Solar plant in Idaho unable to generate enough power to supply even itself. Utility company is going to cut off electricity to so-called "power" plant, because they can't pay the bill for all the electricity they are using up in the process of not generating electricity.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Class dismissed

This sentence both confused and delighted me:

Many people, including me, have decided that the overclass poses the most serious threat today to the middle class in the United States because it markets the assertion that the underclass is the source of all our problems.

The author is Nancy Folbre, the source is the NY Times Economix blog.

I ran it through various translators and the best I could come up with was, I hate rich people and you should too. 

Anyone else?  Bueller?

 

Iowa: The Caucuses Mountains

I was on the Takeaway yesterday, with my pal Celeste Headley. She shamelessly promotes the (admittedly miraculous) fact that the D-Lions are in the playoffs.

And we also talk about Iowa. Click and play, if you want. It's about 7 mins.

Smiles: Fake? And can you tell?

Poker faces often have "tells;" so do smiles.

Spot The Fake Smile
(be sure to click the button to watch the smile.)

This experiment is designed to test whether you can spot the difference between a fake smile and a real one. It has 20 questions and should take you 10 minutes. It is based on research by Professor Paul Ekman, a psychologist at the University of California. Each video clip will take approximately 15 seconds to load on a 56k modem and you can only play each smile once.

In case you are wondering, they did it by taking real smiles that occurred spontaneously in interviews, or by telling the person to smile. Obviously you can't say, "Give us a genuine smile, now!"

Bizarrely, I got 18 out of 20 correct. Had a bit of luck, I expect. But that's better classification than I would have expected. Only missed two, one F that was a G, and one G that was an F.

How do YOU fare?

(Nod to the Blonde, who never fakes it)

Ballot Access Kerfuffles

A nice mess you have gotten us into this time, Stanley!

Gov. Perry, of Texas, is all upset because (gasp!) voters might not get to vote for the candidate of their choice! He failed to get the signatures required to get on the ballot in Virginia.

I have to agree with him. That's a dumb law, a ridiculous and arbitrary distinction on the ability to compete for office. Here is the complaint (from BAN, with thanks)

But then how come the Guv-meister has not said a peep about the fact that Texas, the state where I hear he has some pull, has made a complete hash of ballot access? Et tu, Ricky?

Some more background from Brian I, here...

it might take half the country

North Korea (i.e. Kim Jong Un) has called for its citizens to form a human shield around its leader (i.e. Kim Jong Un)!

Given that many North Koreans eat dirt and sticks, and that KJU looks like this:

I am wondering, how many North Koreans does it take to make a human shield for "The Great Consumer"?

I am waiting for KJU's catchphrase to come out. I loved his dad's: "Let's eat two meals a day"

Bien venido a la Selva

Trying Blogsy on the iPad

This app claims that it's ez to do links, images, and embeds.  So lets give it a try. 

Here's a photo of a beautiful tree:

This post from LeBron caused Mrs. A to insist that I read the book called Beautiful Tree Forthwith. 

And here's a video Mrs. A took of me playing with Mr. 2T last year about this time. 

It's not exactly easy. The built in browser to find links is small and clunky. Images and embeds don't always go where you want them. But it's better than anything else I've seen for the iPad. If I could go on short trips with just the iPad instead of laptop and kindle, that would be great. 

To Prevent Abuse, Create a Cartel?

Anonyman sends this remarkable article. Excerpt:

While the Food and Drug Administration monitors the safety and supply of the drugs, which are sold both as generics and under brand names like Ritalin and Adderall, the Drug Enforcement Administration sets manufacturing quotas that are designed to control supplies and thwart abuse. Every year, the D.E.A. accepts applications from manufacturers to make the drugs, analyzes how much was sold the previous year and then allots portions of the expected demand to various companies.

So, to "prevent abuse," what the gubmint is doing is protecting cartel profits, even in a GENERIC drug. And of course if there is a shortage, that means that rich people who want to abuse the drug will still get it, but poor people who want to use the drug legally can just go screw themselves.

I would like to propose that before you work for the US federal government you have to pass a high-school level econ class. Is that too much to ask?

Rob Kendall Gets Sworn In

Now that Rob Kendall has been sworn in, he may get sworn at.

But for today, he is the newest member of the Brownsburg, IN town council, representing ward #3.

I enjoyed the part where the commenter compared the speech to the Gettysburg Address. The commenter said, "That was NOT the Gettysburg Address."

And so, it begins. But seriously, good luck to Rob! We need more ambiguously Libertarian Republicans in this world.

Don't know why, I love you like I do.....

Not So Much Predictions

I was going to call this predictions.

But it's more like "fun resources so YOU can make predictions." Here we go:

1. There are lots of models that predict share of two party vote in Presidential elections, based on the economy. Here is one that's fun to fool around with...

With plausible assumptions, that would imply that the Dems will get 49.7 -- 50.5 of the two party vote in November. Given the way the Electoral College "counts" votes, that would likely mean a narrow win for the Repubs. Of course that depends on who the Repub nominee is. But if you want to go strictly by the "economy determines whether incumbent Prez wins" theory, right now it's a toss up.

On the other hand, if there is 4% growth in the first two quarters of 2012, you would get a 53.5% vote in the states, and that is close to a landslide. So, the point is, to the extent the models matter, 2% growth and Obama loses. 4% growth and Obama wins in November.

This map is VERY fun for doing simulations, state by state, in Electoral College. (of course, the fact that I think that is fun may explain why I never had dates in high school)

2. Conference Board is predicting 1.5% growth for 2012. If that is right, then Obama loses. Again depending on who the Repub nominee is, of course.

3. Any prediction, based on any reasonable assumptions about the economy, predict that Repubs keep the House, and maybe even add a little to their majority. Redistricting will help here, because many state legislatures were taken over in 2010 election, and the winner redraws the maps.

4. Ben Nelson's (D-Neb) retirement puts the range of outcomes for the Senate at 51 D - 49 R to 47 D -- 53 R. But these are not equally likely. Most likely is 50 D -- 50 R, with VP Biden breaking tie votes in favor of Democrats. So, if I had to guess, Dems retain control of Senate, though only by the thinnest of margins.

5. Consumer confidence: on the economy, seems on the upswing. Still very weak. As long as the Euro is all covered with Greece, very scary situation. Our banks bought up a LOT of PIGS sovereign debt, with MF securities being only the most greedy. Other institutions are lined up like dominoes. World economy could get hammered here. That would be bad.

6. Congressional job approval is at its lowest level EVER, 11%. The House and Senate are each profoundly dysfunctional. But "we hate Congress, though we love our Congressman" is the old saying. The disgust with Congress rarely translates into voting out incumbents. Each election is separate, and based on personality and local factors. So the so-called "triple flip" where people vote against incumbents in Prez, House, and Senate races is very unlikely. People say they are mad, and then they line up and vote for incumbents.

7. Presidential approval is very bad also, but still in the mid 40% range. The difference is that we do vote on the Presidency, directly, in a way we do not on Congress. The rule of thumb is that if your negatives, of "disapprove" numbers, are above 45% you are toast. Right now, President Obama is toast, by that measure.

Oh, and happy new year, all you KPC fans! I am on leave until September, so I shall be blogging from many places around the globe, and I'm looking forward to it.

A Year in Review

I thought about doing a "year in review" post.

But I couldn't have come close to doing it this well.

So, with props to KPC friend Prof. Dave Collum, the year in review!

RP's Xmas List

My guy T-Schall will likely not be on Ron Paul's Xmas list.

Article from Bal Sun here (reprinted pretty widely)

Now, full disclosure, T-Schall is my student, back from UNC-CH days. We have published together. So I am hardly neutral on this topic.

But it seems to me that Dr. Schaller has this right. The attraction of Dr. Paul has always escaped me. Yes, he is clearly right about several things. But he is wrong, and not just a little bit wrong, about a lot of important things.

Overall, I am grateful to Dr. Paul. He has been brave and consistent about advancing his views. But the people who come up to me and say, "Oh, you must like _________, he's a libertarian," only to have me stare at them in horror....you people are crazy.

Here is a partial list of people you goofballs think are libertarians. They can call themselves what they want, of course. But they are NOT libertarians.

Neil Boortz
Glen Beck
Ayn Rand
Ron Paul

So, when one of this group is discussed, or lauded, or is for some other reason in the news, please don't say, "Oh, you must be happy."

What DOES make me happy? Harry Browne's New Year's Day Resolutions. Harry Browne was a Libertarian.

Fearless Predictions

Here we go:

US:

Obama re-elected

US unemployment rate no higher than 7.5% by the end of 2012, real GDP growth > 2.5% for 2012

Republicans keep House and barely get Senate

Heat defeat Thunder in NBA finals

Albert Pujols will be AL MVP

World:

Putin ain't gonna be President of Russia for 12 more years

Assad Jr. gets the boot in 2012

The Euro zone makes it through 2012 intact

China's 2012 growth rate will be < 7.5%

Let me re-phrase

Thanks for your comments on my previous post. I am interested in being able to use the iPad for blogging when I travel to avoid having to lug a laptop around so I have been experimenting with it.

I have an external keyboard, so typing is not the problem.

I am finding that I can't put in hyper-links to other webpages or include images in my posts either when I log in to Blogger via safari on the iPad or when I use the Blogger iPhone app on the iPad.

It's hard for me to accept that there's not an app that makes blogging from the iPad as easy as using Blogger on a laptop.

But I guess that's what the universe is telling me?

Blogging on the iPad

So far it sucks. Any suggestions??

35 >> 25

Big fun last night in the OKC:

Some partial year end good news!

People, it looks like both the 45 cents / gallon subsidy for domestic ethanol AND the 54 cents / gallon tariff on imported ethanol are both dead as of January 1!

Amazing. I guess when the economics actually lines up with the political correctness, good things can actually happen.

Sadly though, the ethanol mandate (how many gallons of ethanol must be blended into gasoline each year) is still alive and well. At least it can be filled by cheaper and less environmentally wasteful Brazilian sugar-cane ethanol.

Maybe someday, we can just have a Pigouvian tax on carbon and drop the command and control BS. Not holding my breath though.

Education: yer doin it wrong

In this Times piece on young women leaving the labor force to increase their human capital, the author focuses in on one such person, getting an MA from the university of Denver.

The piece returns to her at the end and causally notes that, when added to her BA debt, the young lady will be $200,000 in the hole when she graduates!!

Given that her BA was from Wartburg College and her MA is in "strategic communications", I hope this person got a tremendous amount of enjoyment from going to school because as a financial investment, this stinks.

It's quite likely that she has consigned herself to an adult life lived out entirely behind the financial 8-ball.

Is the CIA giving Latin American leftists cancer?

Hugo Chavez says that he wouldn't doubt it one little bit.

He says he got the notion from Fidel:

"Fidel always told me, 'Chavez take care. These people have developed technology. You are very careless. Take care what you eat, what they give you to eat ... a little needle and they inject you with I don't know what,'"

It's easy to laugh at this but we actually did try to kill Castro, didn't we? And we helped kill Allende in Chile. And there was Guatemala in 1954, and the Contras in Nicaragua, and "Operation Fury" in Grenada. People, we occupied Haiti from 1915 to 1934.

Hell we stole Panama from Colombia and huge chunks of Mexico too in the Mexican American War.

Basically the US has been a huge bully / PITA/ jerk to Latin America, at least since 1846.

It's not that hard to see where Hugo is coming from.

Pour some (corn) sugar on me!

People, the nefarious corn growers want to change the name of high fructose corn syrup to "corn sugar".

Those bastards!

Luckily, we have a noble group mobilizing to stop the cornies' nefarious plan:

The sugar growers!

Yes, the Sugar Association is suing the Corn Refiners Association to stop the name change. If we could somehow get the Cotton Association in on this farce we'd have the trifecta of US agricultural policy stupidity.

It's all over now, baby blue?

Adjusting for inflation, real house prices are back to where they were in 2000. If we are not at the bottom, we have got to be pretty close, no? Could it possibly be a good time to buy?

(clic the pic for an even more vertiginous image)

Germany: Sorry, I gave at the State

The US is the number 1 most charitable nation in the world.

Germans like to see themselves as "giving," but of course when it comes to voluntary giving they actually suck. In fact, most of Europe "gives" by taking money from people at gunpoint. That would be "stealing," friends.

Germany is #26.

Of course, I suppose Germany could claim they gave at the Euro. Still, strong evidence that Tocqueville was right, and state action crowds out private initiative and personal moral responsibility. So, for all my German friends who jabber about how generous Germans are and how stingy American are... how do you like us now?

Germany and France Discuss the Future of the EU

Have been wanting to try to make a XtraNormal video.

This is my first effort. It's time consuming, but pretty fun.

Germany and France discuss the future of the EU in a closed door meeting, with a frank exchange of views...

Germany and France Discuss the EU
by: Michael_Munger

Roll over and see what you can do!

Recently saw this ad, on a site.

Not easy to read, but it says, "Menopause made intercourse dry and painful? Roll over to see what you can do!" And then, I shudder to think why, the picture of a doorknob.

However, to be fair, it made me look twice. Perhaps that is the real function of advertising, yes?

Warning: Contains Graphic Content

After this quite delightful little kerfuffle, Zach Wiener was kind enough to send me the original of this cartoon. Interesting Rorschach test: we learn something about YOU, from who you think is being mocked. This issue discussed at greater length here. (Hint: Zach always mocks everyone, including himself. He is not really a fan of false certitude, or ideologies. Check the crest here...)

Anyway, I got this for Christmas:

In the place of honor, right over the throne, so that men are obliged to stare it, and women will have plenty of time to look at it, too, while they are doing whatever it is that they do that takes 45 minutes in there. (Not very high quality, it's a cellphone pic, so if you want the original comic it's here...)

Way too early instant analysis of the Thunder

One game against a bad team (yes Orlando is a quite bad team) isn't much to go on, but here goes!

The Thunder had (at least) 4 questions going into the season.

1. Would Russell Westbrook take another step forward to becoming an efficient point guard?

2. Could Kendrick Perkins return to his pre-injury level of play?

3. Is James Harden the real deal?

4. Is Serge Ibaka the real deal?

Well, 50% fails most tests, but it does get you into the hall of fame in baseball.

Perkins was awesome. After a bit of a slow start, he did the job on Dwight Howard, ran around like a crazy man, and just generally was a badass. My favorite thing about Perk is how mad he gets when a TEAMMATE gets a rebound away from him.

Harden showed a lot more calmness and confidence. He knows what he can do and he looked ready to be a star.

Westbrook had 7 turnovers and shot 6-17. I have to say though that I am a huge Westbrook fan and I'm hoping for big improvements here. He probably needed training camp more than any other Thunder player.

Ibaka was a no-show. I don't know if he'd rather still be playing in Spain, but he was lost and totally ineffective out there. He was scary bad.


To switch gears, the Magic stink!

Hedo is done. He can't move. He and Anderson can hit wide open 3's when they don't have to move, but little else. If it wasn't for Ibaka's hideous defensive effort and the Thunders perverse penchant for fouling J.J. Redick, Orlando wouldn't have gotten 75 points!

The Magic have both Jason AND Quentin Richardson on their team! In the NBA we call that "two Richardsons too many".

I don't think they were both on the floor at the same time, but if that happens, basketball will never be the same.

Christmas Wisdom from LeBron

"good regulation should take account of our rather extreme ignorance. That means emphasizing the more general protections, as embodied in a ready supply of safe liquid assets, rather than obsessing over the regulatory micromanagement of particular bank activities."

More here.

Merry Christmas from Angus & Mungowitz