Do They Work For Tips?

"I'm a big boy now!" said one young man at the "mass circumcision party."

Well, no, I'm afraid your boy is now somewhat smaller, though perhaps aesthetically pleasing, after it heals up.

Seriously: a mass circumcision party.

My question, as in the title: Do the doctors work for tips?

And WHY circumcision? The evidence, as Nick notes, is hardly clear. (Though I like Nick's envelope joke. Good to see that he is capable of KPC-style humor).

(Reminds me of the old claim, from a student paper, that "Sir Francis Drake circumcised the world with a 100 foot clipper.")

Interesting: Declining Migration in U.S.

It is not Just the Economy: Declining Migration and the Rise of Secular Rootedness

Thomas Cooke, Population, Space and Place, May-June 2011, Pages 193-203

Abstract: Americans have always been viewed, both by themselves and by others, as a migrant society. However, migration rates have reached record lows: only 1.6% of Americans moved from one state to another in 2009, and only 3.7% moved from one county to another. This research conducts a decomposition of the change in migration rates between 1999 and 2009 using data from the Current Population Survey. The analysis concludes that about 63% of the decline in migration rates between 1999 and 2009 can be attributed to the direct effects of the economic crisis that began in 2007, and another 17% of the decline can be attributed to demographic changes (e.g. the aging of the population) but that the remaining 20% of the decrease in migration is due to a decline in migration behaviour, or increased rootedness, that applies
to all demographic categories. The discussion focuses on the implications of the universal, or secular, rise in rootedness for migration studies.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis, who moved to NC from CA)

Cheaper is an innovation

I have this on-going argument with my man K-Koopa.

My claim is that the Chinese are performing important innovations in solar power panels. Not big changes, but marginal ones that will make production cheaper and will make use of solar power possible.

(And, as Angus has noted, this is a GOOD thing...for us)

Anyway, Matt Ridley makes a more general form of that argument: marginal changes that reduce cost are the core innovations we can expect from active economies. The major innovations (steel, steam engines, transistors, silicon circuits) are pretty rare. The key innovations are finding ways to make other innovations affordable and mass produced.

Happy Mother's Day

This is a very sweet video.

The ending actually made me cry a little bit. But then our house is an "empty nest," or at least it will be as soon as the YYM packs up for Myrtle Beach. He just finished his freshman year at Duke. And the EYM lives in Chapel Hill. (That last bird in the nest has the EYM's hair style, exactly. The tufts: EYM all the way.)

Still, happy Mother's Day, to the LMM and to all the mothers out there!

Transmissions from the Vacamatic heart

My paternal grandparents, Lake George NY, 1951 (clic the pic for a more glorious image):

My Grandfather was (1) an immigrant from Scotland, (2) a greengrocer, (3) a Baptist minister, (4) an avid gardener, (5) a sugar addict, and (6) a car lover.

Rather than having his children with him in this photo, he posed with his car, a 1946 Chrysler New Yorker!

My father informs me that one of his many childhood chores was keeping the whitewalls on this baby clean and shining.

Win Win: Win

Win Win is a cute movie. The LMM and I liked it a lot. The kid is really fantastic, and grandpa Leo (Burt Young) is wonderful. Paul Giamatti is as good as he always is (though he will never match his performance in "Shoot em up," the best bad movie ever made.)

Choosing your fantasy economic development team

There be "fantasy development" leagues, where you draft countries and then compete based on some weighted scale of growth, infant mortality, FDI, life expectancy, and so on.

If there WERE such a thing, then AK Sen's article would be very helpful for players.

And I think it's pretty interesting anyway: Who do you want on your fantasy development team, China, or India?

Sen seems to say China, but then he goes and tries to draft Bangladesh.

If China is now the right answer, it wasn't always. 'Cause Rap Master Mao was batshit crazy. Read about the mangoes.

weekend links

1. Alexander Cockburn absolutely kills BHO over the OBL affair.

Here's a teaser: From this active volcano of lies, we can safely assume that Obama's re-election campaign has been well and truly launched.

2. Al-Zarkawi gets a new roomie.

This is the funniest thing I've read in quite a while (hat tip to the King of Arkansas).

3. Once again, Timmy Geithner proves himself to be a man of the people.

The culture that is Germany

People, did you know that the German word for "advisor" is "berater"?

That tells you a lot right there doesn't it?

Follow up: do you know how to say MVP in German? Answer is here.

Fun with Movie Titles

This picture shows a rather more suggestive title than was intended...

A friend claims to have seen this sign ten years ago:

THE FIRM
FREE WILLIE

(Nod to Angry Alex)

Florida: Home of Bestiality and Butt Cracks

Oh, golly. I was going to do this as "Not the Onion," but what's the point? The Florida legislature, facing a variety of problems with the budget, immigration, and education, have decided to solve the two most pressing problems. I am absolutely not making this up. These are both actual, frequently observerd problems in Florida. Check the story:

1. Also passed by the House and Senate Wednesday is the so-called "droopy drawers bill" (SB 228), will will force students to hike up their pants while at school.

Students caught showing their underwear or butt crack could face suspensions and other punishments.

and...

2. Bestiality: The bestiality bill (SB 344) bans sexual activity between humans and animals and has been championed for years by Sen. Nan Rich, from Sunrise.

Rich took up the anti-bestiality fight after a number of cases involving sexual activity with animals in recent years, including a Panhandle man who was suspected of accidentally asphyxiating a family goat during a sex act and the abuse of a horse in the Keys. The bill would make such acts a first-degree misdemeanor.

You might want to watch this again:


I don't have a bestiality video to show you. Sorry.

The 244,000

All in all a decent jobs report. 244,000 net new jobs in total, 268,000 net new private sector jobs. 29,000 new jobs in manufacturing and the median duration of a spell of unemployment fell below 21 weeks for the first time in over a year. However the overall unemployment rate did rise back up to 9%.

All The News That Fits Our Ideological Bias?

Being The New York Times: The Political Behaviour of a Newspaper

Riccardo Puglisi
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, April 2011

Abstract: I analyse a dataset of news from The New York Times, from 1946 to 1997.
Controlling for the activity of the incumbent president and the U.S. Congress across issues, I find that during a presidential campaign, The New York Times gives more emphasis to topics on which the Democratic party is perceived as more competent (civil rights, health care, labor and social welfare) when the incumbent president is a Republican. This is consistent with the hypothesis that The New York Times has a Democratic partisanship, with some "anti-incumbent" aspects, in that - during a presidential campaign - it gives more emphasis to issues over which the (Republican) incumbent is weak. To the extent that the interest of readers across issues is not systematically related with the political affiliation of the incumbent president and the election cycle, the observed changes in news coverage are consistent with The New York Times departing from demand-driven news coverage. In fact, I show that these findings are robust to controlling for Gallup data on the most important problem facing the country, which I use as a proxy for issue tastes of Times' readers.

-----------------------

Partisan bias in economic news: Evidence on the agenda-setting behavior of
U.S. newspapers

Valentino Larcinese, Riccardo Puglisi & James Snyder
Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming

Abstract: We study the agenda-setting political behavior of a large sample of U.S.
newspapers during the 1996-2005 period. Our purpose is to examine the intensity of coverage of economic issues as a function of the underlying economic conditions and the political affiliation of the incumbent president, focusing on unemployment, inflation, the federal budget and the trade deficit. We investigate whether there is any significant correlation between the endorsement policy of newspapers, and the differential coverage of bad/good economic news as a function of the president's political affiliation. We find evidence that newspapers with pro-Democratic endorsement pattern systematically give more coverage to high unemployment when the incumbent president is a Republican than when the president is Democratic, compared to newspapers with pro-Republican endorsement pattern. This result is robust to controlling for the partisanship of readers. We find similar but less robust results for the trade deficit. We also find some evidence that newspapers cater to the partisan tastes of readers in the coverage of the budget deficit. We find no evidence of a partisan bias - or at least of a bias that is correlated with the endorsement or reader partisanship - for stories on inflation.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Nick G and Russ R Discuss FotC

Nick (I can't call him "the Jacket," 'cause he gave it up) Gillespie interviews Russ Roberts.


Nod to Angry Alex

From Madison, NJ

Simon and Garfunkel? Pikers. Gilbert and Sullivan? Don't make me laugh.

From the set of FotC, at Drew University, a candid of the mighty Russ Roberts and Mungowitz podcast duo. (19 albums and still workin!) No, Russ is not standing in a hole.

(Thanks to Jeff Boyd for the pic. Jeff also sent this article about the shoot).

Jeff Miron on How to Balance the Budget

(with apologies to AJ):
Sounds simple.
That's what you're thinkin'.
But entitlements can walk through fire without blinkin'.
Doesn't take much, when you get enough,
Livin' on debt.

The uncensored econometrician

Yesterday in econometrics I, a student asked me "how do you know if you have an endogeneity problem?"

My reply:

"When you are reading the referee report on your paper and it says that some of your explanatory variables are 'clearly endogenous' and require instrumentation!"

Then another student asked, "how do you know you've solved your endogeneity problem?"

Me: "When you get the letter from the journal editor saying that your paper is accepted for publication".

Recession Sessions

What an interesting album.

Not for all fans, I suppose. The idea of "financial folk" is pretty odd.

Almost heaven

"A West Virginia man found wearing women's underwear and standing over a goat's carcass told police he was high on bath salts.

Mark L. Thompson of Alum Creek was arrested at his home Monday. A criminal complaint in Kanawha County Magistrate Court charges the 19-year-old with cruelty to animals.

Sheriff's Deputy J.S. Shackelford says witnesses reported Thompson standing near a neighbor's pygmy goat in a bedroom. He was wearing a bra and female underwear. The goat, a male named Bailey, had at least one stab wound."


1. Isn't a bra already "female underwear"?

2. bath salts? Party tonight at Bath & Bodyworks people!!!

3. do you snort, inject, drink, or just marinate in the bath salts to get high?

Full article (self recommending), including mug shot is here. I would have posted the mug shot, but didn't want Mungowitz to rip me for doing so!

Interesting If True

I had wondered how the famously indecisive BHO had so quickly given the go ahead for the OBL raid.

Maybe I have watched too much "West Wing," but this sounds plausible.

Of course, West Wing was FICTION. And this may be fiction also.

Still...

I was told – in these exact terms, “we overruled him.” (Obama) I have since followed up and received further details on exactly what that meant, as well as the specifics of how Leon Panetta worked around the president’s “persistent hesitation to act.” There appears NOT to have been an outright overruling of any specific position by President Obama, simply because there was no specific position from the president to do so. President Obama was, in this case, as in all others, working as an absentee president.

As always, ATSRTWT

(nod to the lovely Blonde)

Rob Kendall Wins!

KPC friend and long-time radio impresario Rob Kendall actually WON his primary election for City Council in Brownsburg, Indiana.

Who says that an honest guy who works hard can't win elections, even if he cares about liberty and the Constituion? (I don't want to kill him, so let me point out he is NOT a Libertarian, but is a Republican. Still, he does care about liberty).

Well done, Rob my man! Vote count: Rob Kendall: 712 -- Bill Guarnery: 383.
Landslide Rob!

I like this account of the debate:

Guarnery had the floor first and issued a statement through a spokesperson.

“I fully support our Town Manager Dale Cheatham and our town,” he said.

The U.S. Army and Marine Corps veteran has built his campaign around his solid attendance in council meetings, council experience, and 18 years as a resident and taxpayer of Brownsburg. Through his spokesperson, he disputed numbers regarding the town’s debt and budget put forth by Kendall saying, “Challengers in this race are liable to say anything.”

Anything? Like, maybe, the TRUTH! He is bragging about his attendance, and he didn't show up for the debate? Or is he mute? The spokesperson thing is odd.
(Ol' Bill looks a little like Gordon Tullock. I was the 760th visitor to his website; not a good sign.)

Well done Rob!

Fraud! Fraud most FOUL....

A fraud was perpetrated. A most foul fraud.

It was perpetrated by...ME! How embarrassing.

Convinced that "Curt" was just some troll, whining about being denied his prize, I checked, and....darn.

The following people appear to have qualified to win the prize, but got...nothing.

Scott E.
Susan S.
Christoph B.
Curt G.

So, send me an email to mcmunger at gmail dot com, with a physical address, and I'll immediately send you signed "rubber glove" photo, AND a vintage (long hair) MM4NCGOV bumper sticker, with my apologies.

And, Curt G., way to nurse that (fully justified) grudge for almost two years. Instead of sending a follow up email (Where's my damned shirt!?) you nailed me good. You are right, and I was wrong. Well played.

Hmmm? What? HEY!

Our Treasury Sec'y thought you were too busy celebrating state sponsored murder in an act of war on allied country to notice.

So he snuck this one in on you.

While you were busy reading up on that other thing, Tim Geithner decided to give himself an extension on the debt limit. The Treasury originally set the deadline date to stop borrowing for July 8. But now Geithner says that by taking "extraordinary measures," the agency can keep borrowing until August 2, after reaching its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling by May 16. In a letter to Congress today, Geithner said that "stronger-than-expected tax receipts" would allow more borrowing room if the limit isn't raised in the next two weeks.

(Nod to Anonyman)

and that's the name of that tune

Osama Enchanted Evening: The Assassination WILL be Live-Tweeted

Not really a Keith Olbermann fan.

But this is well done. And the live tweet bit is quite interesting, if it's real. (Not saying it's real, just passing on the link). (Though, there is this...)

There is also the "Obama Bin Laden" thing, which also appears to be real. But not sure why people are giving Fox News such a hard time. Check this: (Screen shot taken at 9:20 a.m. on May 3, 2011)

Now, sure, I understand that Time was saying that Obama struck bin Laden. But it says, plain as day, "Obama bin Laden." Yes, they changed it, on the web site, but how about some equal treatment?

These idiots, for example, are going after Fox for making a mistake. Well, where is the outrage about Time, then?

FOTC In the Southern Germany Times

Frequent (but usually totally wrong!) commenter Martin Kypta sends this note:

just wanted to tell you that the Sueddeutsche Zeitung had a nice article on Fight of the Century on the front page of the second economy section yesterday. However, they did not mention you. Instead, there is an article about Warren Buffett below. Sheesh!

And this time (perhaps for the first time) he was right! (Link for German readers)

Books a Million?

A few weeks ago a postdoc in my lab logged on to Amazon to buy the lab an extra copy of Peter Lawrence’s The Making of a Fly – a classic work in developmental biology that we – and most other Drosophila developmental biologists – consult regularly. The book, published in 1992, is out of print. But Amazon listed 17 copies for sale: 15 used from $35.54, and 2 new from $1,730,045.91 (+$3.99 shipping).

At first I thought it was a joke – a graduate student with too much time on their hands. But there were TWO new copies for sale, each be offered for well over a million dollars. And the two sellers seemed not only legit, but fairly big time (over 8,000 and 125,000 ratings in the last year respectively). The prices looked random – suggesting they were set by a computer. But how did they get so out of whack?

Amazingly, when I reloaded the page the next day, both priced had gone UP! Each was now nearly $2.8 million. And whereas previously the prices were $400,000 apart, they were now within $5,000 of each other. Now I was intrigued, and I started to follow the page incessantly. By the end of the day the higher priced copy had gone up again. This time to $3,536,675.57. And now a pattern was emerging.

ATSRTWT

(Nod to Leonard S)

What Is Classical Liberalism?

Nigel Ashford answers. A seven minute video.

As you can see/hear, Dr. Ashford tends to think of classical liberals as minarchists, and not anarchists. I agree, but that opinion is by no means universally held.

OBL

l'affaire OBL: Nicely summarized by my friend Ed Cone. You gotta like the Al Jazera take on things.

Ross Douthat likewise is what I like: wise.

Opportunity Cost

Amazing. One of our problems is that "expense" is mostly effort and annual budget. Real cost, OPPORTUNITY cost, hardly enters the calculations of government officials at all.

As a result, "we" own a bunch of stupid, useless, wasted spaces in buildings all over the U.S. Because selling them would require that someone get off their ass. And because it would reduce the power of the agency that owns the space. Whereas the money just goes to reduce the burden on taxpayers. And nobody gives a *%&$ about that.

(Nod to Anonyman)

Obvious, But It Needed to be Said

A Test of Racial Bias in Capital Sentencing

Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara
NBER Working Paper, April 2011

Abstract: This paper proposes a test of racial bias in capital sentencing based upon patterns of judicial errors in lower courts. We model the behavior of the trial court as minimizing a weighted sum of the probability of sentencing an innocent and that of letting a guilty defendant free. We define racial bias as a situation where the relative weight on the two types of errors is a function of defendant and/or victim race. The key prediction of the model is that if the court is unbiased, ex post the error rate should be independent of the combination of defendant and victim race. We test this prediction using an original dataset that contains the race of the defendant and of the victim(s) for all capital appeals that became final between 1973 and 1995. We find robust evidence of bias against minority defendants who killed white victims: In Direct Appeal and Habeas Corpus the probability of error in these cases is 3 and 9 percentage points higher, respectively, than for minority defendants who killed minority victims.

My own view: Capital Punishment should be abolished immediately
1. It's barbaric (I won't insult you with a link. It's obvious that the state should not have the power to murder a helpless unarmed person entirely in its power. If you come to my house and break in, I will shoot you, multiple times, with a large caliber weapon. But that's self-defense. Capital punishment is obviously murder).
2. It's racially biased. We mostly kill black people. (See above, or just read the damned newspaper in Texas)
3. It's economically biased. If you can afford a real attorney, you'll get life in prison. And public defenders simply cannot possibly give a real defense.
4. It's more expensive. Cheaper to pay for lifetime incarceration than to pay for all the appeals after the fact. We provide little for actual trial expenses, but then pay millions for appeals after the trial has been botched.

(nod to Kevin Lewis)

Mugshot of the Day

Sheriff Joe Arpaio has a "mugshot of the day" website.

I would say that this violates the 8th Amendment. Not because the pix are humiliating, but because these people have NOT been convicted of any crime.

Having said that: I vote for either Mallory or Angelica. Mallory is pretty darned pissed, and Angelica is a bit too happy.
(Click on the photo for a more humiliating image)
I do think that "Richard Joe" deserves some love.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

IQ and Law Scoffing

Not sure about this study, by my good friend John Nye. Summary from WSJ:

George Mason University economists Garett Jones and J.V.C. Nye set out to solve a riddle: What makes someone likely to obey the law in situations where there’s no chance for punishment? Before 2003, diplomats enjoyed just this type of impunity when parking on city streets. Hundreds of United Nations representatives and foreign consulate officials in New York were free to ignore parking tickets issued by police without fear that their vehicles would be impounded.

A federal law took effect in 2003 giving local authorities the power to pull diplomatic plates from cars with too many unpaid tickets, introducing the first real consequence. Unpaid tickets plummeted as a result. But even in the freewheeling era of diplomatic immunity, not every nation’s diplomats ignored parking tickets just because they could. As the economists note:

Delegations differed widely in their scofflaw tendencies: The median diplomat averaged 8 unpaid tickets per year, the standard deviation was 33 tickets per year, and the maximum was 250 per year (from the Kuwaiti delegation).

The study itself...

Would have thought that "IQ" would be standing in for a national culture of rule of law, and voluntary cooperation. In other words, market systems.

So my hypothesis is that countries with highly developed market systems would be those that have fewer parking tickets. The "IQ" correlation is spurious.

Comments?

Is Monogamy an Equilibrium?

System justification and the defense of committed relationship ideology

Martin Day et al.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming

Abstract: A consequential ideology in Western society is the uncontested belief that a committed relationship is the most important adult relationship and that almost all people want to marry or seriously couple (DePaulo & Morris, 2005). In the present article, we investigated the extent to which the system justification motive may contribute to the adoption of this ideology. In Studies 1 and 2, we examined whether a heightened motive to maintain the status quo would increase defense of committed relationship values. In Study 3, we examined the reverse association, that is, whether a threat to committed relationship ideology would also affect sociopolitical system endorsement. As past research has found that the justification of political systems depends upon how much these systems are perceived as controlling, in Study 4 we tested whether the defense of the system of committed
relationships would also increase when framed as controlling. Results from Studies 1–4 were consistent with our hypotheses, but only for men. In Study 5, using cross-cultural data, we sought to replicate these findings correlationally and probe for a cause of the gender effect. Results from more than 33,000 respondents indicated a relationship (for men) between defense of the sociopolitical system and defense of marriage in countries where the traditional advantages of men over women were most threatened. In Studies 6 and 7, we investigated when this gender difference disappears. Results revealed that when we measured (Study 6) or manipulated (Study 7) personal relationship identity rather than relationship ideology, effects also emerge for women.

-----------------------

Power Increases Infidelity among Men and Women

Joris Lammers et al.
Psychological Science, forthcoming

Abstract: Using a large survey among 1561 professionals, the current research examines the relationship between power and infidelity and the process underlying it. Results show that elevated power is associated with higher infidelity because of increased confidence in the ability to attract partners. This is found for both actual infidelity and intentions to engage in infidelity in the future. Importantly, gender does not moderate these results: the relationship between power and infidelity is the same for women as for men, and for the same reason. These findings suggests that the common assumption (and often found effect) that women are less likely to engage in infidelity than men is, at least partially, a reflection of traditionally gender-based differences in power that exist in society.

-----------------------

Social Inclusion Facilitates Risky Mating Behavior in Men

Donald Sacco et al.
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, forthcoming

Abstract: Although past research has reliably established unique effects of social exclusion on human cognition and behavior, the current research focuses on the unique effects of social inclusion. Recent evidence indicates that social inclusion leads to enhanced prioritization of reproductive interests. The current study extends these findings by showing that the pursuit of these inclusion-induced reproductive goals occurs in sex-specific ways. Across three experiments, social inclusion led men, but not women, to endorse riskier, more aggressive mating strategies compared to control and socially excluded participants. Specifically, included men were more likely to endorse sexual aggression (Experiment 1), high-risk mate poaching behaviors (Experiment 2), and high-risk mate retention tactics (Experiment 3). These results demonstrate that the experience of social inclusion can affect sex-differentiated preferences for risky mating strategies.


Nod to Kevin Lewis

Not the Onion

One of these is made up. Which?

Mayor Bloomberg: Sure, we have too many immigrants. The solution is to forcibly remove all of them....to Detroit! (Link)

Preemptive zombie arrest in London, to protect Royal Wedding party. They weren't even protesting, or doing anything (they were zombies, after all), but they were arrested because police thought they might do something. "We've been pre-emptively arrested under suspicion of planning a breach of the peace," (a zombie said)from the police van. "We went to Starbucks to get a coffee and the police followed us in." "We were just dressing up as zombies," said Amy, who was wearing a "marry me instead" T-shirt. "It is nice to dress up as zombies." (Link)

Man beaten up, police cordon off area, but call bystanders over to look. “All right, folks, something for you to see here, check this out,” said patrolman Brian Pearson, who arrived on the scene and instructed onlookers to “just push past that yellow tape there for a better look.” (Link)

Matt Yglesias comes out and admits it: he is frightened of the very idea of Oklahoma. "Oklahoma City crowd is kind of terrifying." (Link)

"A College of Your Own: All academics should blog." Says young untenured academic who blogs. (Link)

I Can Be Flexible...I Know Brad Is!

Brad DeLong raises some questions about the characterization of Keynes as an advocate of "central planning." (Brad DeLong's "Grasping His Winky with Both Hands" blog)

And then turns into a textual critic/ deconstructionist, examining Keynes's writings.

He may have a point, but it seems to me this is like comparing Marx and Marxists.

Marx was interesting, but Marxists are mostly thugs and totalitarians.

It is certainly true that Keynes himself was flexible (As Frankenfurter put it, "I know Brad is!") on both his economic beliefs and his bouncy-bouncy partners. And good for him. I admire Keynes.

But the people who advocate central planning in the U.S. call themselves Keynesians. And, in my opinion, they are Keynesians. Their views are derived from Keynes, in ways that are plausible and in the spirit of Keynes's own work.

So, Dr. DeLong...please. The distinction you are trying to make is foolishly pedantic, even for a foolish pedant like you.

UPDATE: Steven H gets it right. And said it better than I did. Because he is smarter and nicer. Well, smarter.

Office or Policy?

Are Politicians Office or Policy Motivated? The Case of U.S. Governors’
Environmental Policies

Per Fredriksson, Le Wang & Khawaja Mamun
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, forthcoming

Abstract: Are elected politicians primarily motivated by holding office, thus choosing environmental policies accordingly? Or are they motivated by the chance to implement their preferred environmental policies? Do governors have character, in the sense that they promise and implement environmental policies consistent with their own preferences? To answer these questions, we study the differences in environmental spending across both re-electable and lame duck governors from the two main political parties. In our empirical analysis, we make use of parametric and non-parametric regression-discontinuity approaches. While re-electable governors do not set significantly different policies, lame duck governors do. We argue that in
the area of environmental policy governors appear to be primarily office motivated and lack character.

I love the last sentence. In other news, the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, and water is wet.

(nod to Kevin Lewis)

When You Gots a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail

Some background. (Cannot vouch for accuracy of account, just passing it on for what it's worth)

Nod to Tony B

1,000,000 th KPC visitor: Mid June

Sometime in Mid-June, we'll have our 1 millionth visitor. And we need suggestions on how to celebrate. You may recall that our 500k th visitor was in September 2009. So, it took 5.5 years to get to 500k (mostly without Angus) and only a little less than two years to get from 500k to 1 million (with Angus). I think the Angus factor has a pretty important role here in the explanation of hits/month.

So, I think that lucky millionth visitor should get a FAAAABULOUS prize from Angus and from me. BUT that visitor will have to know s/he is the 1 millionth visitor, and will have to send us an email identifying her/himself. (And we can tell, from the IP address, where your physical location is, on Sitemeter, so fraud should not be easy).

I already know what I'll be sending out to that lucky winner. A signed, and tastefully framed, copy of this memorable moment:

But what should Angus do? A picture of Mr. 2T riding a whale?

Thank you Uncle Sam

The Feds have done me a big favor by shutting down internet poker. Now the internet player have come out of their mom's basements and descended on physical casinos!

And us second hand-smoke-victim-Native-American-casino players are welcoming them with open arms.

It's been the talk of the poker room the past two weekends; story after story about how some "internet player" donked off all their chips in a mad bluff or by calling pot sized bets to chase a thin draw that never came.

They pretty much all dress alike, so its easy to spot them even before the action starts: slanted, filthy ballcaps, Affliction t-shirts, and improbable facial hair.

I've been the beneficiary of this internet largesse, and it's pretty fun.

So I ask my dear Uncle to please keep enforcing the "no online poker" ban!

Grand Game: Solar Power Edition

So many choice passages here. I'll just let you folks have at it. What's your favorite fatuous statement, or silly fact?

The article

(Nod to Anonyman, who liked the "fact" one solar panel could produce enough electricity, in a year, to light four 60 watt bulbs for six weeks. WTF?)

On Angus' Pond

My wonderful Aunt Joyce is pre-disbursing her estate and gave us some frogskins this winter. We decided to use them to put a small stream and pond in the back yard.

Here are some wee foties of the semi-finished product (clic the pics for a more glorious image):

Not So Fast, II

So, a schmuck in the audience tries to make the Krugman point, and cites Krugman as an authority. Hilarity ensues.

P-Kroog is a punch line, a clown. And it is not because he is dumb; far from it. He is completely unconstrained by facts or logic. I think P-Kroog actually believes he has evolved into pure energy, and need no longer worry about petty things.

(Nod to Leonard S)

Not so fast

John Taylor called Obama a big spender and unleashed the progressive chorus. Krugman (among others) went after him twice (see here and here).

Here's Taylor's graph (clic the pic for a more glorious image):

It's clearly true that spending automatically rises in (after?) a recession and that has something to do with the bulge around 2009.

But Taylor's beef with Obama is that spending never falls back down in the out years, even though growth is projected to be pretty robust.

Krugman sez that's just due to mandated spending increases and would have happened no matter what. But people, look at the CBO budget projections from 2007 shown in the graph below (clic the pic for a more glorious image):

They show spending out to 2017 at around 19% of GDP, and the trend, if anything is down.

All the automatic spending increase stuff Krugman talks about was known about when these projections were made, so I am not sure how it can be that Obama (and Pelosi and Reid) have / are not proposing a significant expansion of Federal spending!

We are talking about permanently raising Federal spending by 2-3 percentage points of GDP in ways that were not foreseen in 2007.

Who is more clutch?

Kevin Durant, or Mungowitz?

Sure KD scored 41 points, 16 in the 4th quarter, and all of the Thunder's final 9 points to beat Denver 100-97 and move OKC to the second round of the NBA playoffs.

He was incredibly clutch.

But Mungo did this.

Only thing he coulda done better is to have gone Rooster Cogburn for us.

Angus Showed this in my class

The Daily Show - The Big Bank Theory
Tags: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

Just admit it Bernanke: You are a guy with a beard who is allowed to print money.

Easter

I have my new Easter bonnet, too. Pretty? The LMM is that tiny little thing amidst all that manliness.

Flapdoodle: Birth Certificate of Obama

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

KPC as always is way out front.

We (well, Angus) declared in July 2009 that the birther "flapdoodle" was nonsense. As Angus put it, "Who would have thought that so many idiots (birthers) banded together could be wrong?"

Of course, Angus went on to ask why it matters in the first place.

Toilet Seat-o-metrics

Article on toilet seat economics.

Abstract: This paper develops an economic analysis of the toilet seat etiquette. I investigate whether there is any efficiency justification for the presumption that men should leave the toilet seat down after use. I find that the down rule is inefficient unless there is a large asymmetry in the inconvenience costs of shifting the position of the toilet seat across genders. I show that the selfish or the status quo rule that leaves the toilet seat in the position used dominates the down rule in a wide range of parameter spaces including the case where the inconvenience costs are the same.

Now, I wrote about this four years ago, so here is that info again. A different conclusion.

(Nod to RL and MA)

Bob Lee Says

Terrific column by my bud Bob Lee.

UNC Boss Holden Thorp is a friend of Bob's, so he's not taking cheap shots. He's just calling the corners.

Here is the hate crime report, on TV.


But it was a hoax. Just totally faked. HuffPo huffed and puffed about the "hate crime," but then when it turned out to be fake HuffPo actually had the gall to say "allegedly faked." You gotta like that: There WAS a hate crime, for sure, but then it was "allegedly faked." Why not "alleged hate crime" in the first place?

So, to review: this was TOTALLY made up, fabricated. And all the haters line up and say, "This fits the pattern. This proves my biases are correct. Only the government can solve this problem."

The truth is that the idea of a hate crime is idiotic. There are crimes. Prosecute them. But don't make stuff up. Or you give reasons to people who want to make stuff up just to get attention.

Assaults do happen. But stuff like this just makes it harder for the actual victims to get justice. And UNC Chancellor Holden Thorp should be ashamed.

20 Most Worthless Majors

Not sure this list is accurate. Since it does not include Political Science, I mean.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Can the Fed do more?

Bernanke unprecedentedly goes public today with a post FOMC meeting news conference!

The progressive pack wants to hold him accountable for not "doing more" to fight unemployment (here's David Leonhardt for example).

But, can Chairman Ben do more?

Well in one sense, yes, he could always announce another policy initiative. QE III anyone?

But the important question is can the Fed do anything right now to reduce unemployment faster?

I don't think so.

All the policies Leonhardt mentions require the Fed to make a credible current commitment to an unusual set of future actions (set interest rates at near zero for several more years, create higher than "normal" future inflation).

In other words, for these types of polices to work, the Fed has to change expectations about future Fed behavior.

People, there is a huge literature exactly about the fact that the Fed cannot credibly commit to some future optimal policy (the so called "time-inconsistency" literature).

Fed promises to do strange things in the future simply are not believable and are thus extremely unlikely to produce the desired private sector reaction.

To my knowledge, none of the proposals being floated for the Fed to do more avoids this basic issue, and thus, I do not believe the Fed can do anything at this point to make unemployment fall appreciably faster.

Why Are Liberals So Condescending? Part Deux

Nice article; thanks to a commenter.

Excerpt:

The denunciation of Palin took place 45 years after William F. Buckley, Jr., wrote: "I should sooner live in a society governed by the first two thousand names in the Boston telephone directory than in a society governed by the two thousand faculty members of Harvard University." From Richard Nixon's invoking the "silent majority" to Palin's campaigning as a devout, plain-spoken hockey mom, conservatives have claimed that they share the common sense of the common man. Liberals—from Adlai Stevenson to Barack Obama to innumerable writers, artists, and academics—have often been willing foils in this drama, unable to stop themselves from disparaging the very people whose votes are indispensable to the liberal cause. The elephant-in-the-room irony is that the liberal cause is supposed to be about improving the prospects and economic security of ordinary Americans, whose beliefs and intelligence liberals so often enjoy deriding.

LeBron on Compassion by the Pound

Interesting article on humane treatment of animals.

If it matters, Chez Mungowitz has gone over to cage-free eggs. Not expensive. Not sure they taste better, but for such a small price why not have more humane treatment. Angus is much closer to totally free range, because Chez Angus buys only free range chicken and beef. (Angus doesn't like seafood or pork) (Never mind; inside joke).

Of course, we also eat deer. Humanely killed deer, which means hunted by responsible expert marksmen. Happy, totally free range deer to dead deer in less than 10 seconds.

Four Terrific Podcasts

For my class this spring, the TW Smith Foundation was kind enough to provide generous support for some outside speakers.

With the permission of those speakers, I have created podcasts of their lectures to the class. Here they are. A note of warning: I did the recording and production. So the sound quality is something less than perfect, even though the speeches themselves were first rate.

John David Lewis: Podcast (Professor at Duke's PPE Program)
"The Role of Commerce in the Ancient World"

Timur Kuran: Podcast (Professor at Duke in Economics and Political Science)
"The Long Divergence: Economic Institutions in the Islamic World"

William Dougan: Podcast (Professor in the John E. Walker Department of Economics at Clemson University)
"The Economist and the State: The Chicago View"

Kevin Grier: Podcast (Professor in the Department of Economics at University of Oklahoma)
"U.S. Monetary Policy: Past, Present, and Future"

.
(UPDATE: A reader was kind enough to point out that one might look here for 19 other useful podcasts on economics. And I have to (blush) agree.)

Aren't They Cute When They're Asleep?

So, took Angus to airport this morning, getting there at 6:30 am for his 7:30 am flight.

But, bad weather in Memphis, his connection.
Came back to the Mungowitz ranch, for some nappies. Maybe second breakfast, some nice tea, and some WSJ reading on the front porch. Next flight out is at 12:30, through Detroit.

In the meantime: shhhh!

Best Headline

Best Headline Ever:

Patient emits potentially harmful gas; hazmat called to Ann Arbor hospital

You pretty much don't need to read the article now. The headline contains all the needful info. I've had days like that, buddy. Hang in there!

(Nod to S. Horwitz)

KPC Summit

Angus, Mungowitz, Neanderbill, and the Lovely Ms. Neanderbill had the KPC summit dinner at a favorite local restaurant, Azitra.

We had lamb vindaloo, a variety of curry dishes, two orders of a great eggplant dish (bhartha), several great tandooris (tandoori salmon! Yumtown!), some really fine paneer in a creamy tomato sauce, a very fresh kachumber plate, and a giant rack of assorted nans. And...ate all of it. I did my best, but Neanderbill was the champ. He's 6'8", 185 lbs., and can eat more than ...well, more. We ordered an appetizer, a rack of bread, and seven entrees, and four of us left nothing behind but a vanished hunger.

We also had a bebida buena. They call it a "snake charmer," and it's tequila, lime juice, simple syrup, and quite a lot of fresh ginger. Kind of a margarita with ginger. Best margarita I have ever had.

And the restaurant was absolutely empty except for us. Strange. Really good food, clean pretty restaurant. A mystery.

But, in any case, the KPC summit was a success. Now I have to waddle back to the couch. Angus and I have us some NBA playoffs to be watching.

Vote Compass? Maybe Biased?

Vote Compass: Like the World's Smallest Political Quiz, a way of telling which ideology is "closest" to your views.

Or, perhaps not? Perhaps statistically biased? Pretty serious charge, if true...

How to succeed in economics

This is from the NY Magazine Krugman profile recommended by LeBron:

In December, Krugman and five other liberal economic thinkers (Joseph Stiglitz, Robert Reich, Jeffrey Sachs, Alan Blinder, and Larry Mishel) were invited to the Oval Office for a 90-minute off-the-record audience with the president. It was a month after the midterms, and many progressives were worried that even the modified liberalism of the administration’s first two years would dissolve in a new spirit of conciliation with the ascendant right. The economists present understood the meeting, one of them says, as the moment when Obama “talked to the left."

The economists sat ringing Obama: two Nobelists, a former Labor secretary, and a former vice-chairman of the Fed. Not a Gentile among them, Krugman noticed, but an amazingly high proportion of beards.

You have the blueprint, people, what you do with it is up to you!

you can't hit what you can't see

I am heading to Mungotown to talk about monetary policy. I was researching the question of whether the Fed should target asset bubbles (and by target I mean, prevent / deflate!!). Chairman Ben's point of view is that the Fed should do so only to the extent that the bubble bleeds into overall inflation.

At this point something burbled up in my reptile brain; "housing is about 1/3 of the CPI, how could it have soared so far without bringing inflation along?"

People you probably know this already, but in 1983, the BLS redefined how to measure housing costs to "owner equivalent rent", and this variable didn't much move with housing prices in the last decade.

Here's a graph, courtesy of Dr. Housing Bubble (clic the pic for a more glorious image):

The red line shows the growth rate in the Case-Shiller housing price index, the blue line shows the growth rate of housing component of the CPI.

YIKES!!!

From 1998 to 2006, there was a complete disconnect between housing prices (rising like crazy) and the BLS measure of owner equivalent rent (which never went up more that 4% in any of those years).

Hard for a bubble to bleed into inflation when it's been defined out of the index!

In the land of the blind, the one eyed pundit is still a dope

The tax wars are at least entertaining. On the right, pundits often point out that many Americans pay no federal income taxes and even more pay very little.

On the left, pundits counter by saying there are more taxes than federal income taxes. For example, everyone with a job pays federal payroll taxes.

For example, here is Jon Chait, citing and debunking the rights point's about who pays taxes.

Are right leaning pundits deliberately trying to pull a fast one, hoping that people will gloss over the modifiers "federal" and "income" and think the stats apply to total taxes?

Maybe. Couldn't put it past them, though Chait (and his source, Emmy winner Leonhardt) do a poor job making their case.

But who pays federal income taxes is an important issue because we are debating raising them! If everyone votes and the median voter doesn't pay federal income taxes, then there is little direct cost to the majority in voting higher tax rates.

That, I think, is the important public choice issue here, and it makes question of who pays federal income taxes is important in it's own right, irrespective what other taxes exist, given that it's the federal income tax we are proposing changing.

Not the Onion...

So, which of the stories below is the Onion?

1. Nude golfers want course of their own in U.S., to match French course. The French course "includes four par 3 holes and two par 4 holes and a water hazard. There's also a large putting green and a golf pro ready to show guests how to swing that club."

2. Man depressed by changes at Arby's: thinner paper and more (but smaller) onion bits on buns.

3. Man "dressed as manequin" nabbed in women's bathroom. 20-year -old from Edgbaston was seen sneaking into the women's toilets "dressed like a mannequin with a mask and a wig" earlier this month. When security guards nabbed him, Hardman admitted to performing a sexual act and said: "I've been a bit weird."

Why Are Liberals So Condescending?

KPC friend, and my own good friend, Gerard Alexander had a piece in the WaPo that was good a year ago, and even better now. Worth reading. Excerpt:

It's an odd time for liberals to feel smug. But even with Democratic fortunes on the wane, leading liberals insist that they have almost nothing to learn from conservatives. Many Democrats describe their troubles simply as a PR challenge, a combination of conservative misinformation -- as when Obama charges that critics of health-care reform are peddling fake fears of a "Bolshevik plot" -- and the country's failure to grasp great liberal accomplishments. "We were so busy just getting stuff done . . . that I think we lost some of that sense of speaking directly to the American people about what their core values are," the president told ABC's George Stephanopoulos in a recent interview. The benighted public is either uncomprehending or deliberately misinformed (by conservatives).

This condescension is part of a liberal tradition that for generations has impoverished American debates over the economy, society and the functions of government -- and threatens to do so again today, when dialogue would be more valuable than ever.

ATSRTWT

Whoops!

Well, we never really meant you HAD to switch to CFLs. All we did was make standard bulbs illegal. "Table for Mr. Freude! Table for Mr. Schad N. Freude!"

Article.

Nod to Angry Alex.

(Lagniappe: A commenter from the article... Me, I eschew all CFLs and use my trusty 40,000 year old, never failing fire torch dipped in endangered species fat. Keeps burning forever or until I bag the last one and have to move on to another! Provides heat, light, natural aroma and is a great dinner time conversation piece next to the stuffed head on the wall. Ta heck with those oil / gas derived spaghetti twirls. Give mah a good heated light source any day 'n' save mu dang fuel oil bill. So if we have nukes, wind turbines, etc. whats the point in saving electricity anyway??? Anyone who has used CFLs knows how poor they are at doing the job. And darn if they don't pollute way way more than normal bulbs do. The moronic non-logic of spinach for brains environmentalists and pink of centre liberals! Some one otta shoot the lot of them and save the planet for the rest of us. Yehaww! )

Hot Links

1. The grading season is upon us, get fired up here! "he urines to be accepted".

2. Deflection: S&P is now running Greece (according to its Prime Minister)!

3. Grand concession: AG Eric Holder admits that not all price rises are not prima facie illegal!

4. Nice graphs from John Taylor in the WSJ.

Countdown to Excellence

The video...it will be out next week. John P is doing that voodoo that he do. And you will see the Ben Bernank as you have never seen him before....

In case you missed the Battle at Buttonwood, by the way. Worth watching.

@MayorEmanuel

I had never seen this article, in the Atlantic, about one of my two favorite twitter feeds, @mayoremanuel. (The other is @shitmydadsays, which has also pretty much gone silent; woe!)

A HuffPo story back at the height of the magic.

Anyway, I actually miss @mayoremanuel. A lot. Prof. Sinker talks about it.

Toe Truck

"Raising boys who want to dress like little girls..."

This is hilarious. But it's also sad.

Fox News (though to be fair most other networks also went nuts).

Jon Stewart is right: "Do you have any idea how long a weekend is...with children?"

Watch through to the very end. A most excellent twist.

Interestingly, the whole pink / blue thing is quite recent. Or, rather, recently reversed:

"[A] Ladies’ Home Journal article in June 1918 said, 'The generally accepted rule is pink for the boys, and blue for the girls. The reason is that pink, being a more decided and stronger color, is more suitable for the boy, while blue, which is more delicate and dainty, is prettier for the girl.'...In 1927, Time magazine printed a chart showing sex-appropriate colors for girls and boys according to leading U.S. stores. In Boston, Filene’s told parents to dress boys in pink. So did Best & Co. in New York City, Halle’s in Cleveland and Marshall Field in Chicago. Today’s color dictate wasn’t established until the 1940s, as a result of Americans’ preferences as interpreted by manufacturers and retailers." [Smithsonian magazine]

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

You don't have to live like a refugee

Or, the UN, the missing environmental refugees, the missing map and the moving goalposts.

There is good overall coverage here.

The UN environmental program (UNEP) had a webpage claiming that there would be 50 million environmental refugees by 2010, along with a nice map of where they might likely come from.

When they started to take fire from this clearly incorrect prediction (It was made in 2005), they just said, "no we didn't say that and took the page down!"

And now? Apparently the 50 million refugees will show up in 2020. They just missed the first bus, I guess:

He just wants to be an American boy!

Yes that is allegedly Russian President Medvedev shaking his booty in the video. Paradoxically, it is believed that his favorite musical group is Deep Purple!

Vladdy O'Hooligan

Vladdy speaks:

“We see that everything is not so good for our friends in the States,” Putin told lawmakers Wednesday “Look at their trade balance, their debt, and budget. They turn on the printing press and flood the entire dollar zone — in other words, the whole world — with government bonds. There is no way we will act this way anytime soon. We don’t have the luxury of such hooliganism,” he said.

As much as I like the image of the US government as a bunch of drunken skinheads, rampaging through towns breaking windows and breaking heads while singing obscene songs, Vladdy is, as usual, full of it.

The BRICS (and how primitive Russia ever got included with real vibrant economies like Brazil, China, & India, I'll never understand) CLEARLY WANT US to run a big trade deficit. They are willing to put up with rising domestic inflation in their efforts to stop their currencies from appreciating and (perhaps) our trade deficit from falling.

And regarding the US debt, it's "flooding of the world" has raised the interest it must pay to an eye-popping 3.5%??????

Vladdy is right that Russia doesn't have the luxury of large scale Ruble denominated borrowing, in part because THEY DEFAULTED IN 1998!

I think Vladdy should stick with wrestling bears and snowmobiling with his boy-toy Medvedev.

UPDATE: In an unthinkable coincidence, it was pointed out to me that Paul Krugman has similar thoughts on Vladdy.

Too Important? How About "Mr. Pot, Meet Dr. Kettle?"

I got a hee-hee out of this:

1. US government so confused, corrupt and incompetent cannot wipe own butt. Debt is downgraded.

2. More on S&P downgrade.

3. Chuckie Schumer has been pressing to investigate rating agencies for negligence and fraud, ignoring risks. "Clearly, this job is too important to be left to the Private sector." Senator Schumer said in a NY Times interview.

This "job" is clearly too important to be left to Chuckie Schumer. Dude, get your own house in order.

(Nod to L.S.)

Follow ups

1. I ripped Melo for his weak play in game 1 of the Knicks-Celts series so I have to give him credit for a great stat line in game 2: 42 points on "only" 30 shots, 16 rebounds, and 6 assists with only 1 turnover. Nice. Of course, the Knicks still lost.

2. As of 11:00 am CDT, the Dow is up 1.6% and the NASDAQ 2.0%. Somehow I must have missed where S&P took back its debt-downgrade threat??

With friends like these.....

Chilling headline this morning "Italy sending military instructors to Libya".

I can only hope they are going to help Gadhafi!!

Isn't it bad enough that France is helping the rebels?

This reminded me of Churchill's retort to Von Ribbentrop when Ribby told him Italy would be on Germany's side in the coming war:

"It's only fair that you have the Italians this time, after all we had them last time".

Democracy

Diffusion through Democracy

Katerina Linos
American Journal of Political Science, forthcoming

Abstract: Many argue that international norms influence government behavior, and that
policies diffuse from country to country, because of idea exchanges within elite networks. However, politicians are not free to follow their foreign counterparts, because domestic constituencies constrain them. This article examines how electoral concerns shape diffusion patterns and argues that foreign templates and international organization recommendations can shift voters' policy positions and produce electoral incentives for politicians to mimic certain foreign models. Experimental individual-level data from the field of family policy illustrates that even U.S. voters shift positions substantially when informed about UN recommendations and foreign countries' choices. However, voters receive limited information about international developments, biased towards the policy choices of large and proximate countries. Aggregate data on the family policy choices of OECD countries show how voters' limited information about international models shapes
government decisions: governments are disproportionately likely to mimic countries whose news citizens follow, and international organizations are most influential in countries with internationally oriented citizens.
----------------------

Unexpected Bedfellows: The GATT, the WTO and Some Democratic Rights

Susan Ariel Aaronson & Rodwan Abouharb
International Studies Quarterly, forthcoming

Abstract: The WTO system and democratic rights are unexpected bedfellows. The GATT/WTO requires governments to adopt policies that provide foreign products (read
producers) with due process, political participation, and information rights related to trade policymaking. Because these nations also provide these rights to their citizens, a growing number of people are learning how to influence trade-related policies. As trade today encompasses many areas of governance, these same citizens may gradually transfer the skills learned from influencing trade policies to other public issues. Thus, the WTO not only empowers foreign market actors, but also citizens in repressive states. We use both qualitative and quantitative analysis to examine whether membership in the WTO over time leads to improvements in these democratic rights. Our qualitative analysis shows that these issues are discussed
during accessions and trade policy reviews. Quantitative analysis examines how members of the GATT/WTO perform on these democratic rights over time. We use a cross-national time series design of all countries, accounting for selection issues of why countries become members of the GATT/WTO regime. We find that longer GATT/WTO membership leads to stronger performance on our metrics for political participation, free and fair elections, and access to information.

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Make Up Day

From the set of "Fight of the Century": Make up chair. Note "Keynes" in the background, planning his next heist.

BitCoin

BitCoin

Some analysis on demand, and then on supply.

A more positive view.

Unexpected, Bizarre. And Totally Predictable.

Is there no limit to what the government will do to harass citizens who are merely trying to petition government?

Original story. Engineering without a license.

My first post.

Now, law without a license?



So, the guy says, "I am NOT REPRESENTING the association in this matter." Couldn't be clearer. But they referred him to the state bar anyway.

Wow. As I said before, it should be impossible to surprise me. But that "public servant" Andrew Ritter who says his job is to "protect the public," when what he means is he is protecting himself and his buds from the inconvenience of citizens asking questions....Jeez. I'm surprised. Again.

Here's the cool thing: the resolution of the first case ("Engineering without a license") is something that only Orwell could appreciate. Here is the description from our local NBC 17:



Eventually, the state engineering board decided that the report WAS IN FACT a violation. The group was practicing engineering without a license. But the board decided not to pursue the matter because it is not entirely clear who wrote what. The report is "too good," though, and that means it is illegal, and not something that can be used in the proceedings.

So, if you write a detailed memo, using evidence and logic, you are VIOLATING THE LAW. But since it is too hard to tell who wrote the illegal petition for redress of grievance, they are going to let Mr. Cox off. This time. Next time, boy, you may not be so lucky. You had better be damned glad that our government is a benevolent and loving government, Mr. Cox. They'll be watching...

Interesting View on Economics of Drugs "Wars"

Angry Alex sends this interesting podcast, on Planet Money's interview with a former seller of drugs.

A disturbing implication: "Freeway Rick" was not selling drugs as some kind of social protest. He was selling them because they were illegal, and that's the way to make money.

So, if some drugs were legalized, then poor but entrepreneurial folks would just sell something else. Right?

Debt and Interest

Okay, so the guy is a little creepy. And the linear projections are sometimes silly. But overall....wow. Worth thinking about.



(Nod to Tony B)

Lies, damn lies, & business journalism

So S&P's attempt to avoid indictment by threatening Uncle Sam's credit rating caused the stock market to fall yesterday. At least that's the near universal narrative of the business press.

There's just one problem; it's horses*%t!

First, stock markets were down in Asia and Europe before the US market opened and before S&P announced.

Second, prices of US government debt, the very thing S&P was attacking, ROSE yesterday as did the Dollar vs. the Euro.

I think it's far more likely that the increased prospects of imminent default in Europe was driving events, than was S&Ps posturing, but the plain fact of the matter is that WE DON'T KNOW what drives short run movements in markets, and the last time I checked, post hoc ergo propter hoc was still an egregious logical fallacy, no matter how often the business press uses it.

Disturbing

This video is unexpectedly disturbing. Did NOT see the end coming.

(Nod to the LMM)

Microfinance Fail

Interesting to learn about microfinance.

Which is the reason I love doing podcasts with Russ Roberts. I learn a lot. Because Russ has this $%&#$ing habit of asking questions I can't answer.

So, I give you the most recent podcast on EconTalk, Roberts & Munger on microfinance.

If China Invents Better Solar Panels, We All Benefit

More evidence Angus has it right:

Why the Industrial Revolution Was British: Commerce, Induced Invention, and the Scientific Revolution

R.C. Allen
Economic History Review, May 2011, Pages 357–384

Abstract: Britain had a unique wage and price structure in the eighteenth century, and that structure is a key to explaining the inventions of the industrial revolution. British wages were very high by international standards, and energy was very cheap. This configuration led British firms to invent technologies that substituted capital and energy for labour. High wages also increased the supply of technology by enabling British people to acquire education and training. Britain's wage and price structure was the result of the country's success in international trade, and that owed much to mercantilism and imperialism. When technology was first invented, it was only profitable to use it in Britain, but eventually it was improved enough that it became cost-effective abroad. When the ‘tipping point’ occurred, foreign countries adopted the technology in its most advanced form.

Spontaneous Order

A street person "directs" traffic in Raleigh, after the tornado destroyed a lot of infrastructure, and knocked out power.



(Nod to the good Mr. Greene).

Whitest Man on Earth

I have claimed several times that Art Carden is the whitest man on earth.

Being truly white is not just having pasty skin, though of course that helps.

Being truly white requires a sense of tight-ass, mayonnaise-on-Wonder fashion, also, no matter how out of place.

Consider the picture below, taken at APEE, in the Bahamas. The prosecution rests.
(BTW, in case you couldn't tell, Art C is the giant corn-fed galoot in the middle, with the suit)

Question: Why Do Liberals Favor Tax Increases?

Why do lefites favor tax increases?

Because they assume that the law doesn't actually APPLY to them.

Eric Holder the latest Obamatron to say, "Who, me? You actually wanted ME to pay?"

I suppose there's no reason the Atty General should have to obey the law.

High Heels Hurt

High heels more dangerous than sports! They mean more dangerous for women, of course. Shoes are a trap.

Walking in heels: A lesson. Think of your "power center." Tiny woman talks to giant blonde Amazon woman. This may be the most fatuous thing I have ever seen.


But heels are bad for men, too. Some men get hurt chasing after a another man carrying or kicking a ball. But even more men get hurt chasing after women who are wearing high heels.

'Cause they might actually catch up to the woman. And that's how the men get hurt.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Made in the World

Made in the World, brought to you by the WTO.

Watch the video. Yoda incarnate, with lots of odd lip smacking.

They call me Melo Yellow (quite rightly)

In the Knicks' give-away to the Cs yesterday, Carmelo Anthony missed 10 of his last 11 shots. For the entire game he was 5-18 from the field with 4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 5 turnovers.

Here's what Melo had to say for hisself:

“I’m not too concerned about my individual performance or anything like that,”

the quote comes from here, but the article is mostly weird Celtic worship (i.e. self non-recommending).

Let the Sun Shine

Or, not. It looked like a dark day for the pigs in the solar-industrial complex, but then the bright (though artificial) electric spotlight of the feds shone on them.

Solar advocates mounted a last-minute push Monday to prevent sweeping cuts to a federal loan guarantee program for clean energy development in a Republican budget plan. The cuts would have essentially closed the program, which is popular with solar power developers, and rescinded billion of dollars in loan commitments for dozens of projects.

"Popular"? I bet. The oil depletion allowance is popular with the oil pigs, too. That doesn't make it right.

Look, for a big enough subsidy we could take used toilet paper and make dental floss. And that subsidy would be popular with industry. That doesn't mean taxpayers should be forced to pay for it. The very fact that such a large subsidy is required implies there is no sound economic justification for doing it, in terms of saving resources. (Yes, I have talked about solar subsidies before...)

ATSRTWT

(Nod to Anonyman)

Getting Ready to Shoot Congressional Hearing!

On the set of "Fight of the Century!"

Getting ready for transport to the shoot.