Larry King, guest blogger

"Here's my problem with nominal GDP targeting; 5% inflation with 0% growth and 1% inflation with 4% growth are not evaluated any differently."

"Now that a judge has ruled against Obamacare, what will happen to the quantitative easing?"

"The Ben Benank should either shave or resign."

Thank you sir, may I have another?

People, it just never ends. Now a group in California is suing Mickey D's over their happy meals. It turns out that kids like them and get mad if mom says no. So mom is suing!!

I am not making this up.

Of course mom is not "just" a mom; she's an employee of a state funded vegetable advocacy group.

I am not making that up either.

Remind me again why we need lawyers?

And a Very Merry Xmas from Haus Der Mungowitz

(We like the reindeer outfit for the BMW. And before you ask, Tanzi was off camera rolling in something disgusting, so nobody wanted to grab her and get her to sit down)

Here's another tip for you all....

...the walrus ain't Paul.

And I can prove it!

Click the pic for a more glorious image. Source is here.

The USA went straight to hell in 1975

And I can prove it!!

(Click the pic for a more glorious image)

Source is here.

Last minute Christmas deals!

KPC has used its considerable influence to negotiate the following deals for its readers (just enter KPCROCKS as the promotional code when doing online check out):

Don Van Vliet, RIP

Captain Beefheart has died. I still listen to his first two classic albums (safe as milk and trout mask replica) and he was an accomplished artist. He was 69 years old.

Reattachment Update

I have been trying to lay low. In fact, flat. MAG brought me over a massage table, which is like a sturdy cot, but with a frame with a hole in the middle so I can lie face down and read through the hole.

The first procedure was 8 days ago; the second procedure was Monday, 5 days ago. There is an enormous bubble in my left eye (well, a small bubble, but it's all I can see). The retina appears to have reattached in a physical sense. The problem is that the nerves all need to mate up again, and of course only some of them will. So vision from left eye will always be dim, wrinkled, and unfocused. At BEST.

The primary variable that affects the improvement of vision over the next month is lying face down and motionless. The larger the proportion of time I can do that, the more likely I get back at least some vision in the left eye. (Have always slept on stomach, so that's a help). Anyway, all I can do is look down. And dr says to stay off computer. Eye movements are too rapid, and too large.

So, I read. May I recommend:

Chernow's GEORGE WASHINGTON: A Life
Manchester's THE ARMS OF KRUPP
Strasser and Becklund's SWOOSH: The Story of Nike

Three huge books. Only the Chernow one is remotely new. But all well done. Finished GEORGE and SWOOSH, just started KRUPP. Read it years ago, but thought I would give it another go.

The bane of my existence

It's not the Fed, or my tax bill, or the lack of a local Whole Foods, it's grading. And right now, it's the grading time of the year.

This person definitely gets it in their post, "The 5 stages of grading".

An excerpt:

"Bargaining. This stage usually begins as an earnest attempt to buckle down and grade. The instructor might say, “If I grade five papers, I can watch one episode of House,” or, “For every page I grade, I get to eat a piece of candy.” This process starts well, but as the instructor progresses the amount of work required to achieve the reward generally becomes smaller and smaller..."

You'll have to excuse me now, grades are due in on Monday so I'm off to buy a big bag of Reese's cups!

This is the last straw

As you people know, I've been a big advocate of increased immigration and, yes, of amnesty and a path to citizenship for our "illegals".

But no more!

Not after reading the Fox News Latino report that Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem are having an anchor baby.

In what can only be interpreted as a bearish move on the future of their homeland, the couple is planning to give birth in Los Angeles.

Let's just repeal ALL the amendments just to make sure this crap can't happen any more!

FNL in their infinite wisdom, took the story down, but it's cached, people, it's cached.

Heads I win, tails you lose

I am a little bit confused about Fed policy evaluation 101. I seem to be flunking that course.

Quantitative Easing II was supposed to lower long term interest rates. That was the stated goal of the policy.

Long term interest rates have been steadily rising (even before the latest borrowing binge announcement).

Yet many people say that the fact that rates are rising MEANS QE II is WORKING!

(here is one example)

As my good friend Doug Nelson likes to say, "you have to be a very highly trained economist to come to that conclusion".

Now maybe the Fed is playing the long con and deliberately misinformed the public about the true purpose of their policy. Could you see the Ben Bernank announcing "We want to raise inflation expectations and long term interest rates"?

I think that they actually expected to lower long rates and the episode should be viewed as an example of the idea that the further out in the term structure the Fed aims, the less control they actually have over rates.

I guess there are two kinds of people in this world; those who think the Fed is always wrong and those who think the Fed is always right.

Hans Rosling's Chart is SERIOUSLY MISLEADING

I guess I am the last person with an internet connection to see this video.

Yes he's an entertaining and enthusiastic guy. Yes, the rise of China and India is amazing and fantastic. Yes there is a large "middle class" of countries.

But people, have you looked at the horizontal axis of his chart? The distance between $400 and $4000 is the same as the distance between $4000 and $40000.

That is incredibly misleading.

Properly plotted on a linear scale, it would be clear that there was way way way LESS income inequality in 1810 or that magic year of 1948 than there is in 2010.

We are NOT living in an "age of convergence" with respect to per-capita incomes.

It is NOT only Sub-Saharan African countries stuck at the bottom.

Latin America is NOT catching up to the USA.

The whole thing is pretty much horse hockey.

Then the press grabs ahold and starts to exaggerate the exaggerations. Here's David Brooks:

"Then, over the last few decades, the social structure of the world changes. The Asian and Latin American countries begin to catch up. With the exception of the African nations, living standards start to converge. Now most countries are clumped toward the top end of the chart..."

Just keep repeating this to yourself people: "The left half of the chart covers a range of $3,600, but the right half of the chart covers a range of $36,000.

Holy Crap!

Rahm Emanuel as Coriolanus" "The price is to ask it kindly"

A bizarre modern remake of Coriolanus was enacted in a basement hearing room in Chicago yesterday. (nod to Anonyman for the NTY link)

Listening to the questions, and the tone of the answers, reminded me of this speech by Coriolanus, after he agreed to submit to the questions of the idiot voters of Rome. Coriolanus has asked one voter what is the "price" of the office he seeks; the voter tartly responds that "the price is to ask it kindly."

Later, Coriolanus says this:

Better it is to die, better to starve,
Than crave the hire which first we do deserve.
Why in this woolvish toge should I stand here,
To beg of Hob and Dick, that do appear,
Their needless vouches?

Coriolanus thinks he deserves the office; how dare the voters make him beg for it? Sorry, Rahm, democracy sucks.

(An aside: I was surprised the article author called the Chicago train the "L", because I always thought it was the "El", short for "elevated train." But the city of Chicago itself has gone with "L" trains. Who knew?)

Nick "The Jacket" Gillespie Prepares Balanced Budget

This is cute, for several reasons.

First, the content is good, and the video works just based on the premise.

But for the cognescenti, all of whom know that Nick's "nickname" (sorry) is "The Jacket", the fact that he is wearing the leather jacket UNDER the apron is terrific. Nick is 90% in on the joke, but the fact is that he DOES always wear "the jacket."

Angry Alex asks whether Nick EVER takes off the jacket. My understanding is that, like the Bandit's hat, he takes it off for one thing, and one thing only.

Rouge Birds

A paraphrase, from "Moulin Rouge," Lady Marmalade.

Perhaps we could call it "St Louis Rouge-Birds"

City come through with the money and the bases
We let 'em know we bout that cake straight up the case uh
We independent owners, some mistake us for whores
I'm sayin‘, why spend mine when I can spend yours
Disagree? Well that's you and I’m sorry
Imma keep playing these cats out like Atari

'Cause it turns out that the Cardinals are playing the city pretty hard.

And, indeed, why spend mine when I can spend yours? Both the owners and the politicians win, and only the taxpayers get it good and hard.

As in Mencken's delightful formulation: "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

The point being that a lot of St. Louis citizens actually approve of being treated like this. If you want baseball, pay for it.

(Nod to the Bishop)

Ziggy Stardust & the Spider from Slazenger?

There is a parody of this going around the interwebs; I can't understand why.

Mr. Tootie Has A Brother!

Angus's wunderhund, Pluto (aka Mr. Tootie, etc.) has a brother.

The brother is a bear, which is strange.

But if you watch this video, you will see EXACTLY how Mr. Tootie would react to something interesting left in the kitchen.

Right down to the facial expression. And the guy's voice even sounds a bit like Angus.

Video is pretty long. Watch first 15 seconds, then skip ahead to 1:50. And see what Mr. Tootie would do if he were a bear!

(nod to the Blonde)

The Tao of Don

LA Clippers owner Donald Sterling is many things, slumlord, racist, sexual harasser, astute business man (he bought the Clips for 12.5 mil, now worth over 200 mil).

Now we can add performance artist to the mix. He's taken to heckling his premier free agent acquisition during games from his courtside seat:

It’s not uncommon to hear Los Angeles Clippers fans heckle Baron Davis. Of late, however, the jeers directed at the team’s struggling point guard are coming from a far more surprising source: The man paying Davis, Clippers owner Donald Sterling.

Sterling has expressed his displeasure about Davis’ play by taunting him from his courtside seat at Clippers’ home games, several sources told Yahoo! Sports. Among Sterling’s verbal barbs:

– “Why are you in the game?”

– “Why did you take that shot?”

– “You’re out of shape!”

While Sterling has also taunted other Clippers players since the middle of last season, none have received it worse than Davis, the sources said.

Why?

Sterling “started getting a lot more vocal during the second half of last season,” one team source said. “He never had done that before at games. Baron’s his pet project. He absolutely hates Baron. He wants to get his money back.”

Now it's true that B-Dizzle has been a big fizzle for the Clips, but heckling him during the game seems like a move designed to make sure he won't get any better.

Regulation Helps Established Firms....

New Flash: Regulation helps established firms, creates entry barriers, and protects profit.

Next: The sun rises in the east.

The only thing surprising about this is that you lefties think that THIS time, if we only elect the right people, things will be different.

Fail!

(Nod to Angry Alex)

Appalling American Propadanda Video, With Donald Duck

I laughed at first, but it becomes increasingly racist and disturbing. Still, an interesting piece of history...Donald Duck? Really? Plus, the song is catchy. But then so is syphillis.

(Nod to Dutch Boy)

They know what boys like

Harry Reid and the Senate democrats think they know what President O and the Republicans evidently don't: how to lure the House Dems into supporting the tax deal.

And their answer is........

PORK!!!!

A few billion here and there for ethanol subsidies and wind and solar subsidies is all they figure it'll take to get the bill past the opposition of the Democratic Caucus in the House.

I bet it works, but I'm surprised they didn't throw in a lil bit more high speed rail money just to clinch it.

The leaky lockbox

Of all the weird stuff surrounding the tax deal (Bill Clinton and President O, mortal enemies, now together??), I think the weirdest of all is the idea that cutting the payroll tax imperils Social Security.

Let's sort this one out right here, OK people?

First, at the meta-level, money is fungible. It's very difficult, if not impossible, to earmark funds even when you try. This is what makes humanitarian aid to oppressive dictatorships such a morally murky area.

Second and most relevant though, is the fact that payroll taxes are NOT dedicated only to paying social security benefits. That's right, not only are your personal contributions NOT saved to fund your social security benefits, aggregate annual payroll taxes are not used explicitly to fund social security. The money is spent, period. On what? it's really impossible to say (see the above paragraph).

Yes, I know, Al Gore told us there's a lockbox with our "contributions" safe inside.

People, it's a lockbox with a 100% skim rate (i.e. not a lockbox at all)! Get Al to let you look inside; that sumbich is empty!

In truth, there really isn't much "imperiling" social security; it's the stream of future health spending obligations that are unsustainable. A combination phasing in partial means testing for benefits, and phasing in a slight rise in eligibility age could easily solve any "problems" that might be conjured up.

But the cut in the payroll tax doesn't "imperil" social security any more than it "imperils" the defense budget or the Pell grant budget.

If benefits aren't altered, then the day that payroll tax revenues fall below benefit payouts, what will happen? Nothing! Benefits will be paid out of general revenues just like they've effectively always been paid.

While tax cuts may imperil future spending (that's the essence of "starve the beast", no?), there is no real link between the type of tax being cut and the type of spending being imperiled.

And with this purchase, I have finished my Christmas shopping!!!

I saved the best for last too:

Why Borrowing Money is NOT the Same as 'Free"

Kindred, you ignorant slut. Of course, I mean that in a loving way, because Mr. Winecoff has given me a chance to explain an objection that many people may have had.

I wrote this piece. Then I tried to explain, using this "joke" that wasn't funny.

Then Kindred had this (updated) response.

Okay.

Consider three offers to sell a car.

A. You can buy this car for $10,000
B. You can buy this car for a 60% discount, or $4,000
C. You can buy this car for $4,000 down, and finance $6,000

My claim was that the Republican tax cuts pretended to offer us deal B (big free discount), but in fact offered us deal C (borrow part of price). Deal B is WAY better than Deal C, but it was fake. If someone offered you B, but your contract said C, that would be fraud.

Kindred's objection was that many people prefer Deal C (borrow part of price) to Deal A (pay full price). Um...yes. That's why it is, as he rightly notes, very common. But his objection is a non sequitur. (He's a smart guy, and knew this, I'm pretty sure.)

I never said A was better than C. I said it is a lie to offer B, and then get C.

And Kindred, one other thing: when you cite Wimpy on time preference, you really should cite Chapter 10 of my ANALYZING POLICY book. That is the primary source on Wimpy, I'm pretty sure. Check p. 323...

*****************************

On the surgery: I can see a whole bunch of bubbles, and the giant red/blue disk of detached retina is getting less opaque, though not smaller. I type this looking straight down over my laptop. Can't use regular computer, or do much of anything else. We'll know by Monday if the surgery is going to work....

Whither the Euro?

Dani Rodrik nails the issues and the answer:

"Ireland and the southern European countries must reduce their debt burden and sharply enhance their economies’ competitiveness. It is hard to see how they can achieve both aims while remaining in the eurozone.

The Greek and Irish bailouts are only temporary palliatives: they do nothing to curtail indebtedness, and they have not stopped contagion. Moreover, the fiscal austerity they prescribe delays economic recovery. The idea that structural and labor-market reforms can deliver quick growth is nothing but a mirage. So the need for debt restructuring is an unavoidable reality.

Even if the Germans and other creditors acquiesce in a restructuring – not from 2013 on, as German Chancellor Angel Merkel has asked for, but now – there is the further problem of restoring competitiveness. This problem is shared by all deficit countries, but is acute in Southern Europe. Membership in the same monetary zone as Germany will condemn these countries to years of deflation, high unemployment, and domestic political turmoil. An exit from the eurozone may be at this point the only realistic option for recovery."

The whole article is well worth reading.

**************UPDATE***************

In today's WSJ, the German finance minister says "not so fast"!

Of course, Rodrik's point is that defending the Euro is no longer worth it for the PIIGS, not whether it's worth it for Germany or France.

A Not Funny Joke as an Illustration

So, I came up with a joke to try to illustrate the problem with the "cut taxes, raise deficit" view of policy.

Guy walks onto a used car lot. Guy has a sweater on that says, "I <3 Republicans".*

Salesman sees guy looking at 2006 Ford, marked "$10,000"

Salesman says, "Since you are a Republican, I'll cut the price to $4,000. You'll save $6,000, a 60% cut!"

Republican boy says, "Wow! That's great. Let's do the paperwork."

Salesman writes it up: "$4,000 now, and you owe $6,000, plus accumulated interest, sometime in the future when we feel like charging you."

Buyer starts screaming, "That's not what we agreed on! You said you were cutting the price 60%!"

Salesman says, "Yeah, but somebody has to pay for the car. Besides, I thought you Republicans couldn't tell the difference."

**********************

I said it wasn't funny. But why, when we "cut" taxes by X%, adding that amount to the deficit, do we feel like we are getting a benefit from the government, when if a used car company did the same thing we'd have a fit?

Angus put it really well in his post today: We are just moving money around by "cutting" taxes, it is not a tax cut at all. Yet...we are all really happy. The used car salesmen in Washington are right: We DON'T know the difference.

*(For you old people, "<3" is "heart"; look at it)

Angus vs. Angus

I recently posted (and firmly believe) that, without any spending cuts, the proposed set of "tax cuts" are not real, but rather just represent a temporal re-arrangement of when I will be paying taxes.

Yet somehow, I find myself invested in the cuts passing. I am almost titillated by the prospect of a 2 percentage point cut in the payroll tax.

How can this be?

1. I am an idiot?

2. Maybe I will die before the day of reckoning arrives?

3. More realistically, maybe I can make it into a lower tax bracket (i.e. retire) before the day of reckoning arrives?

4. Maybe large spending cuts are right around the corner?

People, which is more likely; I get to retire before the tax hammer comes down enough or big spending cuts materialize to prevent the hammer from falling?

If this post makes no sense to you, please to refer to point #1 above.

Broken Window Fallacy

In the Stone Age, unemployment was 0%. For some reason, Paul Krugman wants to go back there. The objective is not full employment, P-Kroog. The objective is prosperity.



(Nod to Craig Depken on DoL)

If you hate taxes, cut spending!

Two articles... Op-ed about "end the DAFT!" in the south Florida Sun-Sentinel today.

Second, my friend Bill Lumaye bridled when I called him a "Keynesian" on air on WPTF Monday for supporting temporary extensions of the Bush tax cuts. Bill, if you won't believe me, maybe you'll believe that lefty Charles Krauthammer. Short-term, uncertain duration "tax cuts" are not tax cuts at all, but deficit-financed spending.

It's just a crackpot Keynesian stimulus policy! Don't be fooled that it's the "Republican Way." To have an effect on economic activity, tax cuts have to be credibly permanent.

As I say in the Sun-Sentinel article: If you hate taxes, cut spending.

Wikileaks

Ken from Popehat on Wikileaks. Sounds right to me.

GIVE! ME! THAT! REMOTE!

As part of our continuing series of women attacking their husbands... He wouldn't give up the remote. So she stabbed him seven times. Yes, she did.

(Nod to @Jeanne23)

Wow!

Governor Bev Perdue is actually doing something about reorganizing state government.

Never would have worked with the old legislature. But with new Repub majorities in NC House AND Senate...something might even happen.

Well done, Madame Gov!

Just the title itself is SO great!

Nigeria Charges Dick Cheney with Corruption.

I know it's Halliburton, and you can't do business in Nigeria without paying substantial bribes to pretty much every government wanker with his hand out. But still....Pot, meet Kettle!

Jonah by a storyteller

This is why the internet was created. Or it should be. Or it is a benefit of the spontaneous order called "the interwebs" that no one could have foreseen. Or something like that.

Quite a little story-teller. So cute.

(Nod to the Blonde, who also tells stories)

Capitalism

Capitalism is Anarchy, says my man Mike S. What do YOU say, folks? Too extreme, or about right?

I Stood Up Like A Pheonix

This whole democracy thing is over-rated.

Kindergarten class votes autistic boy out of class. It was 14-2, so it's all fair and square, right? Story / video.

The mom said she "stood up like a pheonix." Not sure about the fire metaphor there. And she was very blonde three years ago, black hair now.

Still, the point is that the very idea of majorities acting morally is laughable. I laugh.

The Culture that is Sweden

Great amateur video of KPC fave Jen Lekman singing about stalking Kirsten Dunst in his hometown of Gothenburg.

The link is here, couldn't get the embed to work properly, you have to click on "continue reading to get to the video. Its worth it!!!

At one point he sings that, "The VIP lines aren't at the clubs but at health care, apartments and jobs".

Ouch!

If you run for office....

If you run for office, then sometimes you will get pictures taken that look like this.
(Photo credit to David Loner, on FB)

Martin Comes Through

KPC friend and sometimes acerbic commenter Martin sends this terrifying video, made for Leavenworth, WA.

And, yes, Germany was just like this. Not.

Free Market Song

Perhaps not soon to be heard on your local radio station.

But for a class project, not half bad.

Except for the dancing at 0:25, and 2:01. That's pretty bad. People from Utah may be the whitest people in the world. Not that THAT's a bad thing, mind you.

(Nod to the Bishop)

Grand Game: Immigration Edition

In this case, the article itself (in WaPo) plays it straight. In fact, this is great, fair journalism.

The amazing stuff is the content of the article. I'm not sure the author, Andrew Becker, was going for this. But each successive revelation about how ICE "broke" the record is more preposterous and outrageous. Have we completely lost respect for the basic rule of law? And then to have these bureaucrats just LIE....Wow. I mean, the guy who outed the administration's fibs is the head of their own union. The admin lied about changing the rules, and artificially decreed that the year would be longer, on both ends. Good lord.

WaPo is hardly some right wing blogger. There actually appears to be something moving, where fair-minded people on the left are sick and tired of the Obama shenanigans.

Anyway... your favorite parts, highlighted in comments. Go!

(Nod to Anonyman)

From the bathroom of Procrustes

Here's an aphorism way better than any that came from his bedroom:

You complete me!

In one of the funniest Wikileaks so far, a US diplomat labeled Daniel Ortega as Hugo Chavez's "mini-me".

Chavez should get to call Ortega anything he wants, after all he's given Danny around a billion dollars.

A Day Without Social Science....

A day without social science is like a day without sunshine. Which we call "night"

So David Brooks believes social science is night.

(Nod to TS)

I wonder if alcohol was involved in some way....

What the heck? Christmas carols?

Woman bites off husbands tongue, and then other things happened.

(Nod to the Blonde)

Oh Dear!

Leader, that is. Thanks to @hallsmansm for pointing me to this most excellent blog.

Here are a couple of examples:

The Jacket Speaks

Nick "The Jacket" Gillespie and KPC friend Veronique de Rugy have a plan to balance the budget. It does not involve tax increases, but it does involve spending cuts. Here it is...

I do want to be clear on my opposition to "The Deal" out of Washington. It's fine with me to extend/preserve the tax cuts. But since we have a growing deficit, that just means we are failing to pay for our spending.

And as Angus said this morning, the total spending cuts in "The Deal" are....negative! The Deal increases spending.

Any deal that does not involve spending cuts is no deal at all. DAFT!

Dance band on the Titanic

So President O and the Congressional Republicans have displayed their latest arrangement of the deck chairs on the USS Titanic.

There's something for everyone. No rise in income tax rates, lower payroll taxes, re-extended unemployment benefits, a compromise on the inheritance tax (35% on estates over $5 million) and a bunch of other directed tax breaks.

The two year "cost" is around $900 Billion

Number of spending cuts included in the plan? Around $0.00.

As my co-blogger has so forcefully stated recently: Deficits are future taxes.

Without spending cuts, all we are doing is shuffling the deck on the timing.

As for "stimulus", well the economy will turn around on its own at some point, perhaps soon, so these cuts may be lucky enough to be enacted at an opportunistic point in time whereby they will get the "credit".

And so it continues.

People, the search for grown-ups in government is not going well.

Grand Game: Poinsettias

The Grand Game, Xmas plant edition.

Here is the article. The internal bookmarks aren't set up right, so go here, and then go forward to pages (page 14, mnscrpt page 12) to the article on poinsettias.

The economic argument in the paper made me want to know more about Dr. Godfrey Ejimakor. If you share that want, go here.

Now, perhaps there are disagreements in Ag Econ I don't know about. But is the history of grower marketing agreements in Africa and here in the U.S. really so attractive?

Mel Hinich: In Memoriam

The "In Memoriam" article for Mel Hinich was just published in PUBLIC CHOICE.

OMG. O. M. G. OMFG!

It starts bad. But then....the SONG.

End the DAFT!

Our policy is daft. DAFT! Because *D*eficits *A*re *F*uture "T*axes. The DAFT Republicans want to borrow money to pay for tax cuts. And the DAFT Democrats want to borrow money to pay for unemployment benefit extension. It's DAFT! Deficits Are Future Taxes!

I'm going to get t-shirts made: "End the DAFT!"

It's easy....

Instead of "Hell no, I won't go!" we can try, "Like Hell I say, I won't pay!"

Monday's Child is full of links

Anon is angry. (Nod to Alex, who KNOWS from Angry)

It's a temptation that, as we've seen from the class of '94, some of them can't withstand." EWWWW! Stop him before he schtoops again. (Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Joe Scarborough's Class of 2010 Survival Guide.


Class 2010 rapidly putting money in their g-strings. (Nod to Lord Kent)

Breaking up: easier some times than other times. (Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Partisan filters. (Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Good? Or good enough... (Nod to Kevin Lewis)

You're So Unbelievable

Dear Fed:

You are so unbelievable.

Nothing the "greedy" banks are doing is irrational. It makes perfect to gamble with house money.

The question is why the "house" puts up with it. And the answer is that the "house" (meaning the Fed) is playing with taxpayer money. Nobody who is deciding anything has any skin in the game.

Lordy. Lordy pie.

(Nod to Anonyman)

In defense of Greg Oden?

Over at MR, Tyler asks if we should value economists who are like Ronald Coase or those who are more like Nolan Ryan. (I am not making this up!). This is an instant classic Tyler post containing the sentence "Nobody calls him (Greg Oden) the Ronald Coase of rebounding."

I think he's asking if we should value people with a high "home run" percentage in their output or those with a lot of output.

I think there is an easy way out of this and that is to look at citations, not raw output. After all a rebound is a rebound is a rebound, but not all articles are created equal!

It's possible to have a very long vita without making any discernible impact on the profession and (this should go without saying, but sometimes doesn't) a very short vita is not necessarily a sign of high quality.

So on the citation front, it's no contest. According to Google Scholar, Ronald Coase has over 31,000 cites to his two classic articles. Nolan Ryan only has 9!!

A more serious comparison might be to someone like Alberto Alesina. When I look at the first four pages (40 articles) of his cited articles in Google Scholar, I count roughly 27,000 cites, while his two most cited articles ring up a total of around 4900 cites.

I am somewhat already agreeing with Tyler in that I'm using total citations rather than citations per author here (i.e. not penalizing Alberto for having a lot of co-authored articles).

Who's better?

Hard to say really in this case, but I think total citations are the metric to compare scholars with different vita lengths.

Why Bruce Bartlett is hopeless

I'm not sure what to make of this post from Bruce Bartlett, called "Why fixing the budget is hopeless"

He cites a survey where 848 Americans think 25% of the Federal budget is spent on foreign aid and 10% is given as the ideal amount.

He then points out that official bilateral foreign aid in 2009 was less than 1% of the Federal budget.

First, taking everything at face value, I am not sure why this means fixing the budget is hopeless.

Second, there is a hell of a lot more to foreign aid that "bilateral foreign aid". There's US contributions to multilateral aid agencies, then there's NATO, there's our military presence in Japan, South Korea, etc., there's whatever the heck we're still doing in Iraq after a second president has said "mission accomplished". I'm not saying it's 25%, but it's way way way more than 0.6%.

Why take a question where the definition of aid is not given and could easily be construed broadly and match the answer to a very distinct, narrow definition of aid?

Unless of course, you're hopeless!

Bang a gong

One of the only changes I've made to Mrs. Angus in our 16 years together was to institute a "no bangs" policy for her.

I'm not a fan of bangs for women. Chad, however, is a big bangs fan and he schooled me on the origin of the look.

People, bangs were invented in the 8th century by an Iraqi socialite nicknamed Ziryab or Blackbird!

It must be true, it says so right here in the Wikipedia.

He got kicked out of Baghdad for singing too good, so he moved to Spain.

Once there, he did NOT rest on his laurels though.

He put more strings on the oud. He opened up a chain of beauty parlors. He invented toothpaste. And, just to top it all off, he invented the three course meal.

He was the Marc Bolan of 8th century Andalucia!

Why didn't I think of that?

In today's NY Times, Christy Romer solves our economic problems:

"The Federal Reserve, Congress and the president need to reaffirm that they will do whatever it takes to restore the economy to full health... They should follow up with powerful fiscal and monetary actions to create jobs — coupled with a concrete plan for tackling our long-run budget problems."

Look, I know the Times only pays $1,000 per column, but this has got to be a joke, right?

What exactly are these mysterious "powerful" policy actions and why didn't the government try them when Dr. Romer was head of the CEA?

Good grief!

Don't Forget to Say Happy Birthday to Jesus

According to the LMM, this is actually a documentary.

Nice Mug Shot, and Woman Trouble

1. Nice mug shot. It is interesting that taking drugs helps you escape the drug possession charge. I guess you can't have your cocaine and eat it, too.

2. Women...women who hate women...are luckiest people?

(Nod to Anonyman)

Sell Everything. Quickly.

From the "7:30 Report" in Oz.

(Nod to the Ward Boss)

Thank goodness for sub-titles

This is simultaneous the worst and the best video I've seen in quite a while.

Enjoy:

Tree!

Because it makes me happy, that's why.

(Nod to the Blonde, who has to do her own tree. Can you help?)

So near but yet so far

Dean Baker gets a lot of stuff right early, but then heads off the rails again Ozzie-style:

China's government is saying is that it has no better use for its money than subsidising the consumption of people in the United States and other wealthy countries, by propping up the value of the dollar. That may seem surprising since per capita income in China is less than $8,000 a year, while it is over $45,000 a year in the United States, but if this is what China's leaders insist, who are we to argue?

In effect, China is subsidising its exports to the United States. This is very generous of the Chinese government, since the United States can take advantage of China's generosity to enjoy a higher standard of living. Currently, our deficit with China is equal to 2% of GDP. This means that China is handing us goods and services that are worth roughly $280bn a year more than the value of goods and services we give them in exchange.

I wouldn't put it exactly this way, but kudos, Dean, you're nailing it!

Then there's this:

While this displaces a large amount of domestic production, we can ensure that the displacement does not result in unemployment by simply shortening working weeks. If everyone's working week was shortened by 2.0% (the equivalent of one week per year of vacation), we could keep the workforce fully employed even in the case of reduced demand.

People, the idea that every $ of the trade deficit with China represents a $ of lost domestic production is risible. Does Dean really think the next cheapest producer of Walmart products operates plants in the USA? What about Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Sri Lanka, even Mexico? Bilateral trade is not a leak-proof iron pipe. Reductions in a trade deficit with a single country does not guarantee reductions in the overall trade deficit. That's just econ 101.

Dean is also a bit confused about where most low education workers in the USA work:

At present, China's trade policy primary hurts non-college-educated workers, since those with college and professional degrees are largely protected from the same sort of competition that manufacturing workers face. It is important to eliminate the barriers that protect doctors, lawyers and university professors from competition with their lower-paid counterparts in the developing world. This way, trade with China would put downward pressure on the wages of professionals, not just manufacturing workers.

First, most non college educated workers do NOT work in manufacturing. Manufacturing employment is a small fraction of overall employment. Many non-college educated workers work in the service sector and thus are largely "sheltered" from import competition.

Second, as Dean knows full well, American university professors in the USA face tremendous competition from foreign workers. In our small department in Oklahoma we have a Greek, an Argentine, a Turk, and three Chinese professors; about one third of the department lived abroad before starting grad school. Go look at the home page of the Harvard economics department and count the foreigners.

I fully support increased immigration for professionals (and indeed for almost everyone), but Dean just does not have his facts straight here.

John Nye: Interesting Talk on North, and Economics

Great, great talk. John is a wonderful guy, funny and smart.

(Nod to Pete B)

Take the skinheads bowling

One of my alltime favorite bands is Camper Van Beethoven. Turns out their front-man, David Lowery also has a head for business, as he was involved in the founding of Groupon which just sold itself to Google.

Here is Lowery on the subject:

"In 2008 I was appointed to the board of advisors of a small web startup called www.the point.com. The site the brainchild of Andrew Mason was a " tipping point" mechanism, a social networking site that allowed people "commit" to take group action. In particular the hope was they would take group action for social change. The investors quietly noted there was not a clear way to monetize Andrew’s experiment. However they hoped that by watching the way users used the tipping point mechanism, a viable way to monetize this website would present itself.

I was asked to start a campaign on www.thepoint.com."To get a feel for it". Not being very socially conscious I decided that I wanted to use The Point for my own narrow self interests.

Cracker and Camper Van Beethoven have a festival, The Campout. It’s rather remote and since we produce the small festival ourselves we take considerable financial risk. While the previous years had been marginally successful we were worried about the rapidly deteriorating economy (I believe Bear Stearns had just gone bankrupt). So I started a campaign to get a "break even" amount of CVB and Cracker fans to commit to attend the festival. In this way our fan’s promises to attend would become a sort of promissory note. no pun intended. While you couldn’t exactly peg it’s value, these collective promises to attend at some point seemed to be worth enough to go ahead and book the flights, PA, lights, and port-o-potties.

Other successful "campaigns" on The Point also involved similar commitments for group purchasing. It wasn’t long before The Point became Groupon."

Wow, Elvis Presley died and David Lowery got paid?

Hat tip to DG!

Economics is fun: Follow the money

Follow the money.... why repeal the estate tax, really?

Raise the price of a substitute (savings), and you shift out the demand curve for life insurance.

See, it's easy, and FUN!

(Nod to Angry Alex)

He's just not that into you

Danny G is taking this whole LeBron breakup thing pretty hard:

"The Cleveland Cavaliers have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into a high-powered Midwestern law firm to investigate their suspicions that the Miami Heat broke NBA tampering rules while pursuing LeBron James, and owner Dan Gilbert has privately vowed he won’t relent until he has a thick binder of findings to drop on the desk of the NBA commissioner, league sources told Yahoo! Sports."

Man, I know break-ups are tough, but this is nuts. Hiring a private dick to try and piece together whether your ex started cheating on you before the divorce? Does he think he'll get LeBron back?

I guess he just wants LeBron's new love to be hurting too. He should just sneak up on Pat Riley and sucker-punch him!

My Safety University

So, MSU played well, if getting CHILIPUNK'D by a freshman counts as playing well. Here is photographic evidence that the boys in green from My Safety University were actually there, in Cameron, doing whatever it is that they do.

Since I have been to games with Aaron, I know what they were doing. Aaron was saying some remarkably brazen things, during quiet moments, terrifying his "friends." In this case the friends stand out because they are wearing the "tools of ignorance" green shirts that come with being MSU fans.

Went to a Durham Bulls game with Aaron, in September. We were in the third row, directly behind the visitors dugout. You could throw a peanut and hit the on-deck batter in the backside, couldn't have been more than 15 feet.

During quiet moments, Aaron would go after the kid who was playing left field for the other team. The guy had missed a grounder, trying to hurry and make a throw to the plate. The ball had skipped under his glove, and gone to the fence. Two runs scored, man on third, instead of first and third, one run in.

So Aaron is going after this kid pretty hard, and it's often quiet in minor league ballparks. Not totally silent, but Aaron the Foghorn Voice could be heard in the far reaches. "In Little League...IN LITTLE LEAGUE! You learn you have to catch the ball before you can throw it! Hey, Todd! Why didn't you catch it before you threw it? That's Little League."

Aaron, between innings, finds out that the kid (Todd Frazier) DID play Little League. In fact, he played on the LL WORLD CHAMP TEAM! Played for Toms River, and went 4-4 in final game against Japan, one of the hits a homer.

Next at-bat for Todd: "Hey, Todd! You DID play Little League! You should have known. How did you miss that grounder?"

Todd keeps turning around, clearly has rabbit ears. Finally, Todd turns around and mouths, "You are fat! Lose weight!"

Now, Aaron is in heaven, of course. That is not a very good comeback. But more important Todd's head is up in the stands, not in the game. Aaron's work is done.

So he goes after another guy, with long shaggy hair. Looks up the guy's hometown, in the trusty game program. "Hey, Smith! Nice hair! By this time Saturday, you're going to be home in (guy's actual hometown), waking up late and getting your hair done! Does your wife have a favorite place for you to get your hair done! Hey, Smith!"

Then two more developments.

First, the mousey little guy ahead of us turns around and berates Aaron for being a loud-mouth goofball. Except he does it in the most whiny, "Why can't you be nice? We're just here to see the game. Don't be mean to people!" junior tree-hugging granola way. I mean, this weasel made @kohenari look macho. Photographic evidence of Mr. Mouse: To Aaron's credit, he backed off a bit. We were afriad Mouse Man might quiver himself to death or something.

Then, a guy up to our right, five rows over and five rows back, starts giving it HARD to the Bats in the N'awlins Old School fashion. This old guy looks like a Confederate cavalry officer, with white goatee and flowing white hair. Thick Loosiana accent. "Hey, battah! That bat too heavy, now. That bat doan got dat heavy, heavy gris-gris all ovah it. You cain't even pick dat bat, dat's a gris-gris bat! Who dat gawnna hit wit dat gris-gris bat? Not you, sawn, not you!"

We were rolling around in the aisles at this point. First, this guy had some great stuff. I can't remember most of it, but it was tremendous. Aaron was trying to take notes. (Since he went to MSU, he can't actually write, but he was trying). Second, the guy ahead of us, Mr. "Let's all get along and watch the game!" was staring straight ahead. No way he was going to mess with Colonel Jeb Stuart over there. Ol' Jeb would have brought dat hoodoo right down on that little leftie bed-wetter head of his.

But...oh, glory! The Bat's pitching coach, the COACH, comes up to the top step and starts bickering with ol' Jeb the Heckler. Coach yelled, "Hey, old man: You're an idiot!" Jeb nods happily: SCORE! Aaron, knowing he was in the presence of true heckling greatness, nodded and remembered. A rabbit-eared 22 year old....easy. A 55 year old veteran coach, who should know better...Practice, Aaron, practice.

So, anyway, though I was not at the Duke-MSU game last night, I am confident that there was invective and heckling taking place, right up to and perhaps slightly past the point where Aaron got physically threatened.

(UPDATE: My bad, photo credit to Chris DeSante, who clearly has ESPNHD and a TV nicer than most grad students can be expected to have)

Holiday Postcard

A holiday postcard from the Bishop. That's out the window of his office. His office at the B-school. The view outside that office is better. The INSIDE that office is better, too.

Grand Game: Climate Edition

You know what to do. Here is the meat...

(Nod to Pelsmin)

It Happened Like THIS, you see...

(Nod to the LMM)

The Scarlet Band...Period!

This can't be true, can it?
Let's hear again how free and open those Scands are.

Got That New-Time Religion....

What, me worry?

"Rep. John Shimkus is standing by a controversial comment that global
warming isn't something to worry about because God said he wouldn't destroy
the Earth after Noah's flood. The Illinois Republican running for the
powerful perch atop the House Energy and Commerce Committee told POLITICO on
Wednesday that his understanding of the Bible reaffirms his belief that
government shouldn't be in the business of trying to address rising
greenhouse gas emissions." [Politico]

What, me think rationally?

"My father, David Brower, the first executive director of the Sierra Club
and the founder of Friends of the Earth, could confer no higher praise than
'He has the religion.' By this, my father meant that the person in question
understood, felt the cause and the imperative of environmentalism in his or
her bones." [Kenneth Brower, Atlantic Monthly]

(Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Do ya do ya want my cash?

People, Robert Reich slipped up this week and put in writing what a lot of progressives really think about our current fiscal situation:

"Tuesday, the President meets with Republican and Democratic congressional leaders to begin working out a compromise for extending the Bush tax cuts. Both parties say they want to preserve the tax cuts for lower- and middle-income families. But this would cost $3 trillion over the next decade. Republicans also want to extend them permanently for the top 2 percent of earners, for an added $700 billion. The top don’t need the cuts, don’t deserve them, and won’t spend the windfall (and thereby stimulate the economy)."

Ah yes, rich people just plain old don't deserve to keep their money. They might do something with it that the progressives wouldn't approve.

It's a strange argument to make; the $3 trillion "tax cut" is OK, while it's the $700 billion "cut" that blows out the budget.

Shoplifting in Edmond, OK

Hey, I bet *I* could shoplift this way, too!

The video...

(Nod to the Blonde, who couldn't POSSIBLY shoplift this way, skinny little thing that she is)

New York Bus System

I have been working on the stupidity of urban transit systems, and their occasional successes, for some time.

New York's new "Select" system? It goes down on the "stupid" side of the ledger.

A general description.

And the actions of a new bus Gestapo.

"I'm from the government, and I'm here to .... arrest you! For being confused."

Oldie but goodie....Capital Strike

You have likely seen this.

But I want to make sure you have ALL seen this...(Thanks to CG for the update)

Bar Stool Economics
Suppose every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100 and If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.)
So, that's what they decided to do.

The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. "Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20." so drinks for the ten now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected...They would still drink for free...But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?'...They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33..

But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner
Suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28% savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before...And the first four continued to drink for free...

But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
"I only got a dollar out of the $20," declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man," but he got $10!" "Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!" "That's true!!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison.
"We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

For some reason, this little internet meme is usually attributed to Prof. David Kamerschen, at UGA. But he did NOT write it, and disavows either knowledge or opinion of the piece. So....there.

Good news for people who love bad news

Here's a cheery note to start your morning: Economists are doomed!

Yes, we are in the same category (high paying jobs with no future) as travel agents and newspaper reporters according to Yahoo! Finance:

The Federal government is the largest employer of economists in the country. More than half — 53 percent — of all economists in the U.S. work for declining government sectors, so Uncle Sam's not hiring a lot of economists just now. "Econ" is a hot college major, but most of those newly-minted grads won't find work as traditional economists. Instead, they'll end up in niche sectors in business, finance, insurance, and education. Those set on working as conventional economists better have a Plan B, or a Plan Ph.D, because they'll need one. The economists at BLS do tell us that by 2018, an additional 900 economists will be employed — so the outlook is not as dismal for dismal scientists as it is for, say, travel agents. But if current trends continue, the future isn't promising. "You look at the last 10 to15 years and it has been flat," says Henry Kasper of the BLS. "There's little reason to think it's going to get better."

So it's not technology that's killing economists, it's smaller government? I guess that helps to explain a few things, no?

I personally think economists are like meteorologists; the more we screw up, the more we are in demand!

We are also like chameleons; we can change our stripes and insinuate ourselves pretty much anywhere in the workplace. That is part of what makes "econ" such a great major.

Balance

Can your robot do THIS?

Inverted Pendulum from Tensor on Vimeo.

I think... NOT!

(nod to @jrhorn424 )

My Boy Schaller, With Whom I am Well Pleased

My boy Tom Schaller finally says something smart in his Balt Sun column. I guess if you write THAT much, at some point you find wisdom.

Tom used to be (18 years ago) a moderate Republican. Then, like any sensible person, he kicked those idiots to the curb. Unfortunately, he was so beat up he became an (ick!) Democrat wobbly apologist.

So this whole new "kill the old people!" kick is most welcome, MOST welcome.

Watch out where the Okies go....

don't you eat that yellow...ice??

Oh my, people, Oklahoma city resident Eugene Junebug Eddins (I am NOT making this name up) has a problem:

"A drunken man decided a bathroom break couldn’t wait and relieved himself near an ice skating rink on Friday afternoon.

The man was spotted by an off-duty sergeant with the Oklahoma City Police Department who was with her children, according to the police report released on Monday.

Witnesses told police a man was urinating in the open with his genitals exposed.

Eugene Junebug Eddins, 39, was arrested and charged with public indecency.

After checking the Eddins’ background, the officer said Eddins was wanted on four Oklahoma City Arrest Warrants.

Two of the warrants were for public drunkenness and the others were for failure to appear in court."

the irresistible force and the immovable object

This is so great. China is trying to censor Wikileaks!

"According to WikiLeaks’ calculations, China appears in more than 8,300 of the cables—good enough for fifth place, behind Israel and just ahead of Afghanistan. The U.S. Embassy in Beijing accounts for 3,300 of the roughly 250,000 cables WikiLeaks claims to have in its possession. Six of the Beijing embassy cables have been released on the site so far."

Hmmm, wonder why they've got their Mao-shorts in a knot over this stuff.


"Contained in the cables are assertions that could make things awkward between China and the U.S., including suggestions that China ignored a U.S. request to stop transfers of ballistic missile technology Tehran and offered Kyrgyzstan $3 billion to close a U.S. airbase there.

Another cable, not yet released on the website but seen by the Guardian, quotes an unnamed source saying China’s Politburo—the powerful governing group within the Communist Party-–directed hacking attacks against Google after one of its members searched his own name on the U.S. company’s site and didn’t like what he saw."

Oh.

Hot Links!

1. Mary Anastasia O'crazy is starting to make sense to me.

2. Why Albert Pujols should own a piece of the Cards.

3. Hayek uber alles.

4. Tyler revises his views on the progress of Obamacare.

5. Alan Garcia explains his unpopularity.

Social Security: a third way?

The debate (and by debate I mean scream-fest) on social security has largely been between people who want to cut benefits and people who want to raise tax rates or do away with the cap on how much income is subject to the tax, with each side disparaging the other.

But, there is another alternative. Social security takes $$ from current workers and gives it to the current elderly. We are in trouble partly because the ratio of elderly to workers is rising (and also because benefits have been increasing).

No, people, I am NOT suggesting euthanasia. Shame on you!

I am suggesting getting more workers via immigration!

It's win-win-win. Grandma gets her check, tax rates don't rise, and more people get to come to America and better provide for themselves and their families.

Let's take some baby steps. How about tripling the quotas on H1-B visas and easing the path to permanent residence from them? How about making an easy path to permanent residence for anyone who graduates from a US university. If that's too "liberal" for you how about anyone who gets an advanced degree from a US university?

There are a lot of things we can do to let wealth generating people "in".

And so I say unto you: tear down that wall! Grandma needs the money!

Amen.

Monday's Child is full of links

A mini-Grand Game entry. I like the "Boone's Farm" angle, but there are others. (Nod to Anonyman)

Moments of moment: Gov. Christie. AS is amused. (Nod to Kevin Lewis)

"Not everyone who thinks they need an exorcism actually needs one..." Truer words were never spoken. (Nod to Kevin Lewis)

Darned autocorrect! (nod to Angry Alex)

AND THIS HOW YOU DO ME?

In grad school, we played football, under the name "Trout's Raiders," named after the famous Wash U micro theorist, J. Trout Rader, III. (Yes, there three J. Trout Raders, the sins of the grandfather being visited on a little boy)

Late in a game, we were down 5, and threatening to score. About five yards from goal line.

Fourth down.

Anyone was eligible to receive a pass. So we made up a play (Mike Smirlock was QB this day, though he was later known for other things...). The play was: I would center, then block, then run forward five yards, just over the goal line, and the pass would be there.

I did, I did, I did, and it was (there), right in the tummy. But I dropped it. Michael S's pass was perfect, and it was NOT too hard, or low, or anything. We lost. And I obviously still remember it.

Turns out I should have blamed God for "making" me drop it. That particular excuse did not occur to me, I have to admit.

Spammer Test

"But what about all the actual non-bot humans who won't be able to join the community, because they're incapable of making remotely accurate judgments about what is constructive ... Oh!"

(Nod to frequent, sometimes constructive, commenter Tom, who suggested the whole thing)

Stocks....Winning, and Sleeping

On October 8, I wrote this. Bailed out completely. DJIA was at 11006.

Friday, DJIA closed at 11096. If I had stayed in stocks, I would have had a 90 point bump, or 0.86%.

Instead, I made about 1.1% in that same period in inflation-linked bonds. And I slept better. Hard to say I was actually right to bail. But even with hindsight you can't say I was wrong, either.

You Had Better Go Back to Your Bars, Your Temples...

Beauty Queens and Battling Knights: Risk Taking and Attractiveness in Chess

Anna Dreber, Christer Gerdes & Patrik Gränsmark
Stockholm University Working Paper, November 2010

Abstract: We explore the relationship between attractiveness and risk taking in chess. We use a large international panel dataset on chess competitions which includes a control for the players’ skill in chess. This data is combined with results from a survey on an online labor market where participants were asked to rate the photos of 626 expert chess players according to attractiveness. Our results suggest that male chess players choose significantly riskier strategies when playing against an attractive female opponent, even though this does not improve their performance. Women’s strategies are not affected by the attractiveness of the opponent.

Which of course made me think of this. Darn women. Darned risky moves.

Toucha Toucha Toucha TOUCH Me! I wanna be a better player!

Tactile communication, cooperation, and performance: An ethological study of the NBA

Michael Kraus, Cassey Huang & Dacher Keltner, Emotion, October 2010, Pages 745-749

Abstract: Tactile communication, or physical touch, promotes cooperation between people, communicates distinct emotions, soothes in times of stress, and is used to make inferences of warmth and trust. Based on this conceptual analysis, we predicted that in group competition, physical touch would predict increases in both individual and group performance. In an ethological study, we coded the touch behavior of players from the National Basketball Association (NBA) during the 2008–2009 regular season. Consistent with hypotheses, early season touch predicted greater performance for individuals as well as teams later in the season. Additional analyses confirmed that touch predicted improved performance even after accounting for player status, preseason expectations, and early season performance. Moreover, coded cooperative behaviors between teammates explained the association between touch and team performance. Discussion focused on the contributions touch makes to cooperative groups and the potential implications for other group settings.

I have always said, you just can't beat those early season touches. Those are the best.

(Nod to Kevin L)

Ou est la plume de ma tante?

Mrs. A and I are on Staten Island visiting my aunt for Thanksgiving. She, for some reason, has taken exception to my choice of headwear, saying it makes me "look like a cuckoo-bird".

Here we are, after dinner last night in a pizza joint that serves a pretty good GF pie (among other things). People, you be the judges:

Bike theft: "You are so big and strong!"

Stanley Milgrom used guys with white coats. But it turns out all he needed was a cute blonde.

As one of the commenters says: "Good lord, are men ever stupid."

The earlier video is perhaps more disturbing. Actually, it just IS more disturbing.



What's disturbing is that I wonder if I would have treated the white kid and the black kid the same. I'm not sure. Just not sure. Disturbing.

UPDATE: A commenter asks, "Isn't this just statistical discrimination?"

"Just statistical discrimination"? Um...yes. But the point is that I knew what was going on, and I *still* found myself watching the black kid and getting madder, thinking, "It looks like he's stealing that bike."

Racism is persisting in a biased race-based belief even when evidence to the contrary is clear and convincing. I knew the trick, but I still was watching the black kid and getting mad.

When I was at Wash U, with Angus in grad school, sharing our office with Steve from "Day-ton," I went out on night late to ride my bike home. I saw a black kid sitting beside my bike, and immediately thought, "Is he stealing my bike?" In my defense, it was 3 a.m., and an odd time to be just sitting beside a bike in a parking area.

But I thought, don't be an asshat racist. Just go over there. As I walked up, he tried to hide the bolt cutters under his leg, and struck up a conversation. I asked if he had seen any really big rats around, since something had chewed the cable on my bike lock nearly through.

He jumped up, took his bolt-cutters, and sauntered off, whistling.

I reported the attempted theft. The Wash U po-po was all excited, "We know that guy." (My description had been, "Black guy, medium height, orange shirt.")

Next day, they called me in to do a photo line-up. Nine photos. Now, I am not making this up, people. Of the nine, four of the photos were of white guys. Of the remaining five, four were black and white photos. The remaining one was in color. The color was...orange. It was a black guy with an orange shirt.

I am ashamed to admit I went through with it, pointing out ("j'accuse!") the one color photo guy. The local Dick Tracies were VERY excited; "That's the one, all right, that's him, yepper!"

They told me he would be charged, and I would be called as a witness. But apparently when they called St Louis police to do the arrest, the kid ran. He ran out into a street, and was hit by a taxi. He died the next day.

The point is that I have some baggage here, on the whole black kid stealing a bike with bolt cutters thing. "Just statistical discrimination?" It is unjust statistical discrimination, I'm afraid.

life in an alternative universe

Brad Delong says this:

Thus, I would confidently lecture only three short years ago that the days when governments could stand back and let the business cycle wreak havoc were over in the rich world. No such government today, I said, could or would tolerate any prolonged period in which the unemployment rate was kissing 10% and inflation was quiescent without doing something major about it.

I was wrong. That is precisely what is happening.

People, what has the government done?

Let's see, there's the TARP, the Stimulus bill, the GM bailout, the Fed buying mortgage backed securities, cash for clunkers, the Fed pushing short rates to effectively zero, the credit for homebuyers, the extension and re-extension of unemployment benefits, a big deficit financed increase in discretionary spending (aka last year's budget), and now the Fed has commenced QEII.

Nothing "major"? Really?

It's kind of an interesting syllogism at work here. (1) The government can always control the state of the economy, (2) the economy is still bad, therefore (3) the government has not actually attempted to control the state of the economy.

If only there was a term for this kind of thinking!